This slide is about the Pakistani political future for the next five years. I discussed three authors article in this slide.

1. WELCOME TO OUR
PRESENTATION

2. THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN
A. Factors Shaping the Future
William Milam
B. The Clash of Interests and Objectives
Shuja Nawaz
C. Still an Uncertain Future
Shaukat Qadir

3. FACTORS SHAPING THE FUTURE
William Milam

4. William Milam had predicted Pakistan’s future based on six factors
for five to six years.
He had Predicted Pakistan’s future based on Negative and Positive
factors which are complicated and interrelated.
1. The India-Centricity of the Pakistani Mindset and Policy Focus
2. The Outcome in Afghanistan
3. The Army’s Evaluation
4. The Lost Generation
5. The Imperative of Economic Growth and Reform
6. The Us Factors- An Arranged Marriage?

5. THE INDIA-CENTRICITY OF THE PAKISTANI MINDSET AND POLICY FOCUS
 Pakistan’s “India-Centricity” is the most important factors that have to change
if Pakistan is ever to reach sustainable virtuous circle.
 India-Pakistan relationship also most important measureable factor that will
shape Pakistan’s future. In this regard author give importance on dialogue
between two states.
 The bottom-line question is whether their relations moving toward sustainable
normalization.

6. THE OUTCOME IN AFGHANISTAN
 Afghanistan's problem will be a “Political” solution whether US likes that or not.
 But this will not be possible unless Pakistan stop Taliban come and go freely
between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Here Pakistan’s role is unclear.
 During Taliban rule in Afghanistan in 1996-2001 period, Pakistan had good
relations with them.

7. THE ARMY’S EVALUATION
 There is a high probability that the civil-military balance in Pakistani politics will
continue.
 The army at that point is the catbird seat. Vis-à-vis a weak civilian government.
 Traditionally the army has recruited from Panjab. There is ,among many families
of the era has a strong military service going back generations, from grandfather
to son.
 The military behavior and attitudes badly affect the India-Pakistan relations and
dialogue.

8. THE LOST GENERATION
 The power of the fundamentalist Islamic narrative over Pakistani public mindset become
strong and evident.
 The fundamentalist narrative extends over intellectual society of Pakistan and it is more than
public relations problem.
 Exclusionary religious narratives have spread into the pores of a generation of Pakistani.

9. THE IMPERATIVE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND REFORM
 Pakistani government both civilian and military , have relied on the country’s geostrategic
position to avoid reform and have always expected that their strategic allies will come to
rescue when there is payment crisis.
 Economic paradox is both short term and long term factor in Pakistan’s uncertain future.
 A reformed and healthy economy will be one of the basis for strong alternatives to the
Islamist narrative.

10. THE US FACTORS- AN ARRANGED MARRIAGE?
 US and Pakistani relationship continue to be fragile and synthetic.
 It underline the lack of trust from both sides.
 Through Lugar bill ,Pakistan get $1.5bn economic assistance.

11. THE CLASH OF INTERESTS AND OBJECTIVES
Shuja Nawaz

12. THE CLASH OF INTERESTS AND OBJECTIVES
 Author argued that Pakistani politics tend to be short term, aimed at tactical advantage
rather than strategic placement.
 For this reason Pakistani economic future has become of great concern.
 The emerging demographic shifts also pose a huge challenge for Pakistan.
 1980-2007 time of period, Pakistani economic growth rate was 5.8%, only second to
china’s 9.9%. But with a shorter time horizon other developing countries has crossed
Pakistan's position.
 Despite its poor governance it had produced a high rate of growth.
 Pakistan has a 30 million middle class with an average per capita income of $10,000 a
year on PPP.

13. BASIC CHALLENGES
 Demographic challenge, with a population of 180 million, among them 90 million are youth
who have to be fed, educated, and give employment.
 This youth are also a great opportunities for pakistan, because a youthful population will
continue to work and add value to the economy.
 Pakistan is fast becoming an urban country, with megacities like Karachi and Lahore.
 Pakistan has been agricultural economy, it will need to move up toward agriculture-based
industries and then into manufacturing.
 Pakistan also face huge challenge in energy and water sectors.

14. CONTINUE……..
 The emergence of provincial centers of power had already led to a shift in Pakistan’s
power balance.
 “National Finance Commission Award” gives greater say to use of revenue and resources
to the province and it also a great challenge for Pakistan.
 Raised the possibility of Pakistan being reduced to a rump of Punjab and parts of Sindh.
Baluchistan might become a free state including parts of Iran’s Sistan province. While
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would become a part of Afghanistan.
 Moreover, Punjabi militant groups such as Laskar-e-Tyyiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad will pose
challenge for province and center government leaders.

15. WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?
 A demographic time bomb is ticking in Pakistan, without efficient family planning and urban
planning, rise of megacities will pose huge challenge.
 Lack of urban planning, urban growth will haphazard, education system will be unable to
cope with and health service sector will collapse.
 Regional disparities inside Pakistan will increase, if National Finance Commission Award is not
implement.
 India-Pakistan good relations will help Pakistan to solve many problems.

16. STILL AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
Shaukat Qadir

17. POSITIVE FACTORS
 There is democratically elected political government in Pakistan.
 Despite frequent terrorist attacks, people of Pakistan continue to support the
military.
 The efficiency of domestic intelligence, police, and security forces has improved.
 Recent approved of National Finance Commission Award that has given greater
political autonomy to provinces.
 Having an independent judiciary system.

18. NEGATIVE FACTORS
 The political government may have been democratically elected, but it still fails to provide
good governance
 The unrest in Hazara, could become difficult to handle.
 The military can only win battle in tribal areas, but the war has to be won politically.
 Another political-Judiciary crisis appears.
 Relations between central government and province, continue to be strained.
 Baluchistan is an increasing cause for concern.

19. INTANGIBLE AND UNPREDICTABLE FACTORS
 Will this political government complete its tenure?
 How long people will continue to suffer from the scourge of terrorism?
 Is there still any link between Pakistani intelligence agencies and Pakistani Taliban?
 Will India place Pakistan under pressure through controlling water?
 How long religious unrest will continue?

20. THANK YOU
EVERYONE