Hydro-economic modelling approaches for agricultural water resources management in a Greek Watershed. In: 11th World Congress on Water Resources and Environment (EWRA 2019), Madrid, Spain. June 25-29, 2019

1. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
Hydro-economic modelling approaches for
agricultural water resources management in a
Greek Watershed
A. Alamanos1*, N. Mylopoulos1, A. Loukas1,2, D. Latinopoulos3, S.
Xenarios4
1 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, 38334
Volos, Greece
2 Department of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Aristotle University of
Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece.
3 Faculty of Engineering, School of Spatial Planning and Development, Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece.
4 Graduate School of Public Policy, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Republic of
Kazakhstan.
* e-mail: alamanos@civ.uth.gr

2. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
PROBLEM STATEMENT
WFD 2000/60/EC  Engineering, Hydrologic and Economic
objectives  Integrated modelling
Hydro-Economic Models (HEMs) are the most promising tools for
sustainable water resources management (Brouwer and Hofkes, 2008;
Blanco-Gutiérrez et al., 2013; Alamanos et al., 2019) :
a) Increasing agricultural productivity and/or income (Peña-Haro et
al., 2009; Blanco-Gutiérrez et al., 2013),
b) Efficient water allocation and optimal groundwater
overexploitation policies (Harou and Lund, 2008),
c) Adaptation to climate change (D'Agostino et al., 2014).

3. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
DIFFICULTIES - LIMITATIONS
 Designing a model capable of answering questions and
providing insights for water managers, stakeholders or policy
makers,
 Mathematical formulation, data requirements, available
solution methods, computational-demanding processes,
 Different time units and data, different administrative and
hydrological boundaries, difficulties in predicting external
socioeconomic parameters, etc.
Agricultural HEMs are very likely to be complex and uncertain due
to incomplete data  most Mediterranean rural basins.
So far, due complexity, most HEMs have been practiced in academic
circles, instead of practical implementation and guidance to managers.

4. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
OBJECTIVES
The present study tries to address the above-mentioned limitations by
examining two approaches of setting a HEM, concerning various situations
of:
 data availability (a limited-data and a completer-data version),
 scope (a preliminary and a complete version) and
 different desirable results,
while their common outputs are compared.
The optimum way to set up a model in order to ‘cover’ weaknesses and take
advantage of the existing and accessible data.
+
Simpler, flexible, easier to understand and user friendly models

5. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
STUDY AREA
Karla Watershed Thessaly, Greece, (1663 km²)
 Surface irrigation network + Over-
exploited aquifer
intensification of irrigation  devastating results
to the local ecosystem
 The lake was drained in 1962, for flood
protection and for more agricultural land, but the
planned works were not constructed
 Many problems created, which led to the
reconstitution of the lake (unsuccessfully due to
managerial problems)
 Water resources management and
policy problems (losses, inefficient irrigation,
insufficient data records)
 Through subsidies and product prices,
water demanding crops are preferred
 No water pricing

6. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
METHODOLOGY
A HEM was developed for the watershed (two versions).
Both Versions intended to illustrate the situation and potential
of the watershed.
• Version 1 used limited data.
Scope: Set the bases for monitoring, modernization and
cooperation
• Version 2 used completer data.
Scope: Extend and make use of the primary outputs to achieve the
WFD’s objectives

7. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
METHODS – Version 1
Covering incomplete data by using:
 Statistical and satellite land use data (4 main crops)  for water demand
 Hydrological data by the design studies  for water availability
 Irrigation water charges from Agricultural Organizations  for
irrigation water cost
 Economic data (production cost, subsidies, product prices) from
literature and statistical databases.
(for more details regarding the modeling see Alamanos, 2019)

8. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
METHODS
Simulation using GIS, CROPWAT, WEAP and MS Excel
The disadvantage of using only four crops was encountered by dividing the
watershed in irrigation zones based on common physical and administrative
characteristics and providing the results spatially
Satelite land use data
(Spiliotopoulos et al., 2015)

9. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
METHODS – Version 1
Incomplete data can also be encountered by:
 Examining specific data under extreme scenarios (historical or
hypothetical), e.g. climate, product prices, etc.
 Enriching the inputs with different possible suggestions such as
optimization scenarios (with the given data as objectives and
constraints)
 Implementing different management strategies depending on the
zone
(Alamanos, 2019)

10. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
METHODS – Version 2
More analytical modeling of each component, using completer data:
 Official data the Greek Agency of Payments and Control for
Community Aid (OPEKEPE) in farm-level (classification into 11
crops)

11. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
METHODS – Version 2
 Hydrological model UTHBAL (Loukas et al., 2007)
 Economic data (production cost, subsidies, product prices) from crispy
estimations, validated by literature and statistical databases.

12. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
METHODS – Version 2
Now, the watershed is divided into three zones, depending on the
water supply source:
 Surface network of Pinios
 Aquifer
 Future surface network
of Karla reservoir
- More accurate and useful
simulation for the estimation of the
full cost of water (per Water Body)
- Taking advantage of the detailed
farm-level data

13. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
HEMs’ comparison
Version 1 Version 2
Incomplete data and recordings (hydrological and economic).
Thus, the scope was a preliminary understanding of the system.
Complete and reliable official data per farm. The aim was to
prepare the ground for the implementation of the economic
objectives of the WFD.
4 main crops were used, because of limited data. 11 crops, as they were classified from official data.
Tools: GIS, CROPWAT, WEAP (weap21.org), economic model. Tools: GIS, CROPWAT, WEAP (weap21.org), economic model.
The watershed is divided into 10-19 irrigation zones.
This division offered higher precision, spatial integration of the
results and “covered” the weakness of the limited data that were
used for the analysis.
The watershed is divided into 3 zones depending on the supply
source (water bodies), as it is convenient and useful to evaluate
the full cost of water regarding the quantitative and qualitative
degradation of each water body of the watershed.
A different setting can reduce the uncertainties almost equally in both cases,
as it focuses on each version’s “strong points”

14. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
 The existing situation (BAU Scenario) was simulated
 The outputs of the two versions were examined under 7 management
scenarios (in the form of suggestions of demand management)  aiming
to a sustainable management
Management
Scenarios
Description
Scen. 1
Current situation – baseline scenario (the Karla reservoir is not active yet). Water needs are
covered from the groundwater aquifer and from Pinios River.
Scen. 1a
Reducing irrigation water losses in Scenario 1. Practically, this can be achieved by cleaning
(from plants and rubbish) and by maintaining the canals of the irrigation network of Pinios
LALR.
Scen. 1b
Changing irrigation methods of Scenario 1 with more efficient ones (e.g. drip irrigation instead
of sprinklers)
Scen. 2 Future situation of Karla reservoir operation.
Scen. 2a In Scenario 2, 25% of cotton crops are replaced with winter wheat (non-irrigated crop)
Scen. 2b In Scenario 2, 20% of cotton crops are replaced by winter wheat (10%) and by maize (10%).
Scen. 2c Reducing irrigation water losses in Scenario 2
Scen. 2d Changing irrigation methods in Scenario 2 to improve irrigation efficiency

15. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
Results’ Comparison
The basic outputs of the two versions are their common – and
comparable parameters:
Demand, Unmet Demand and Profits (farmers; Utility)
Management Scenarios
Annual water demand (hm3)
Version 1/ Version 2
Annual unmet demand
(hm3
) Version 1/ Version 2
Farmers’ Utility (v1)/Net
Profits(v2) (mil. €)
1 (baseline scenario – BAU) 343.9 / 374.1 131.9 / 160.4 44.745 / 47.313
1a (reducing losses on Scen.1) 248.7 / 284.9 94.5 / 71.2 44.745 / 47.313
1b (drip irrigation on Scen.1) 311.7 / 356.2 111.4 / 142.5 44.745 / 47.313
2 (operation of a new reservoir) 322.0 / 373.2 109.3 / 99.5 44.143 / 49.395
2a (crop replacement on Scen.2) 309.8 / 351.8 97.1 / 78.2 41.143 / 47.328
2b (crop replacement on Scen.2) 308.8 / 363.9 97.8 / 90.3 41.962 / 48.681
2c (reducing losses on Scen.2) 247.2 / 284.2 55.1 / 10.5 44.143 / 49.395
2d (drip irrigation on Scen.2) 303.6 / 355.3 97.5 / 81.7 44.143 / 49.395

16. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
EXTRA TESTS
 More assumptions could be used in the estimation of irrigation water
demand (in both versions) regarding climate conditions, plant
coefficients and soil parameters. E.g. using online databases (Climwat,
Cropwat, etc.) close to the study area’s characteristics.
 Version 1 was also tested using as inputs the full data of Version 2, and
the results were satisfactory close to Version 2.

17. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
NOVELTIES
 Attempt to show how flexible should be the settings of a model
Depending on
 the needs of the desired results
 the data availability
 Attempt to provide the optimum approach, in order to express simpler
engineering and economic terms to achieve a better local management
 Highlight the importance to able to work in data-scarce areas
 First time of a similar approach in a Greek area
 Comparison of two versions of the same HEM
 Providing useful ideas for other modelers, in order to better exploit the
available data and the characteristics of the examined study area

18. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
CONCLUDING REMARKS
 The present study attempts to enlighten and discuss the importance of simple,
flexible and optimum HEM’s settings, rather than suggest a hydro-economic
framework (see Alamanos, 2019).
 It should be noted that the first version does not “cancel” the second or vice
versa.
 Furthermore, the second version cannot be considered as an updated version, but
just as another way to illustrate better outputs such as full cost of water,
compared to the irrigation cost and water value of the first version.
 Considering more parameters that combine environmental and economic
objectives, it is easier to provide guidelines for an efficient and flexible
management, where water and economy will operate supplementary and not
competitively.
 The paper sets the bases for the evaluation of hydro-economic factors and their
connection with the net profit of the stakeholders, something that still is not
concerned by local authorities.

19. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
REFERENCES
Alamanos, A., Latinopoulos, D., Loukas, A., & Mylopoulos, N. (2020). Comparing two hydro-
economic approaches for multi-objective agricultural water resources planning. Water Resources
Management, 34(14):4511-4526. doi: 10.1007/s11269-020-02690-6
Blanco-Gutiérrez I, Varela-Ortega C, Purkey DR (2013) Integrated assessment of policy
interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic
modelling approach. J Environ Manage (128):144–160. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.04.037
Brouwer R, Hofkes M (2008) Integrated hydro-economic modelling: Approaches, 551 key issues and
future research directions. Ecol Econ 66:16–22. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.009
D’Agostino DR, Scardigno A, Lamaddalena N, Chami D El (2014) Sensitivity analysis of coupled
hydro-economic models: Quantifying climate change uncertainty for decision-making. Water Resour
Manag 28:4303–4318. doi: 10.1007/s11269-014-0748-2
Harou JJ, Lund JR (2008) Ending groundwater overdraft in hydrologic-economic systems. Hydrogeol
J 16:1039–1055. doi: 10.1007/s10040-008-0300-7
Loukas, A., Mylopoulos N. & Vasiliades L. (2007). A modeling system for the evaluation of water
resources management strategies in Thessaly, Greece. Water Resources Management, 21(10), pp. 1673-
1702. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9120-5.
Peña-Haro S, Pulido-Velazquez M, Sahuquillo A (2009) A hydro-economic modelling framework for
optimal management of groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture. J Hydrol 373:193–203.doi:
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.04.024
Spiliotopoulos, M., Loukas, A. & Mylopoulos, N. (2015). A new remote sensing procedure for the
estimation of crop water requirements. 3rd International Conference on Remote Sensing and
Geoinformation of the Environment 2015, 16-19 March 2015, Cyprus. doi:10.1117/12.2192688.

20. 11th WORLD CONGRESS OF EWRA, Madrid, Spain, 25/6/2019-29/6/2019
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Thessaly
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