In this presentation we will see why, according to several sources, our work is becoming more and more risk-prone. Where all sources all agree about causes of this tendency, they also agree on solution: Experimentation. Experiments can go wrong and therefore our duty is not just "to be agile" but to lower the cost of our experiments failure. As conclusion we will see three ideas (TrialSourcing, Products management and #NoEstimates movement) all leveraging on experiments to gain organization advantages.

1. angelo.scotto@computer.org

2. all of
the technology required to transform industries
through software finally works
Why Software Is Eating the World, 2011

4. information-based
environment
information-enable
drop to
zero
Law of Accelerating returns, 2001

5. • Weight, height, and
calorie consumption are
from Mediocristan,
wealth is Extremistan.
• Black Swan is an event
with the following three
attributes: Rarity,
extreme 'impact‘ and
retrospective
predictability.
ExtremistanBlack swan theory

6. • Cynefin Framework is a
problem-solving /
decision-making tool.
• Problem solving is not a
"one-size-fits-all"
process.
• Complex contexts are
often unpredictable,
Cause and effect can
only be deduced in
retrospect.
Cynefin Framework

8. “Instructive
patterns,
however, can
emerge if the
leader conducts
experiments that
are safe to fail.”
Snowden & Boone, 2007

12. ExO Attribute:
Experimentation

13. Software development is and always will be somewhat
experimental
It’s where our focus always
ought to have been
Software Engineering: An idea whose time has come and gone?

15. having multiple providers create sample
pieces of software for evaluation
Better Selection of Software Providers through Trialsourcing

16. 0
20
40
60
gen-17 mag-17 set-17 gen-18 mag-18 set-18 gen-19 mag-19
Typical "Project" costs profile
0
20
40
60
gen-17 giu-17 nov-17 apr-18 set-18 feb-19 lug-19 dic-19
Typical "Product" costs
profile
constant
experimental approach
Jez Humble, 2016

17. Instead of making a go/no go decision
budget small experiments
Gil Zilberfeld, 2015

18. • adapt
is a requirement
• continuously experiment
• be prepared to fail
•
make failure affordable

19. angelo.scotto@computer.org