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Megatrends by HP: Shaping Our Future

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Interested in learning more or discussing Megatrends? Let’s connect! Twitter: @andrewbolwell
Things are changing so fast that would you have believed….
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Source: BBC 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34773940
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Megatrends by HP: Shaping Our Future

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Global socio-economic, demographic and technological forces which HP calls Megatrends will have a sustained and transformative impact on businesses, societies, economies, cultures and our personal lives in unimaginable ways in the years to come.

Interested in learning more about Megatrends? Reach out to me on Twitter: @AndrewBolwell.

Contributors: Andrew Bolwell, Prianka Srinivasan, Luke Thomas, Greg Blythe

Global socio-economic, demographic and technological forces which HP calls Megatrends will have a sustained and transformative impact on businesses, societies, economies, cultures and our personal lives in unimaginable ways in the years to come.

Interested in learning more about Megatrends? Reach out to me on Twitter: @AndrewBolwell.

Contributors: Andrew Bolwell, Prianka Srinivasan, Luke Thomas, Greg Blythe

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Megatrends by HP: Shaping Our Future

  1. 1. 1 Interested in learning more or discussing Megatrends? Let’s connect! Twitter: @andrewbolwell
  2. 2. Things are changing so fast that would you have believed…. 2
  3. 3. Source: BBC 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34773940 3
  4. 4. India sent a spacecraft to Mars for less money than it took Hollywood to make the movie Gravity. Source: Wall Street Journal 2014, http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2014/09/23/how-india-mounted-the-worlds-cheapest-mission-to-mars/ 4
  5. 5. It took Uber a mere four years to hit $10 Billion in gross revenue. Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-revenue-san-francisco-2015-1 5
  6. 6. And Artificial Intelligence took just 42 hours to solve the 100-year-old mystery of how flatworms regenerate body parts. Source: Science journal PLOS, Michael Levin and Daniel Lobo 2015, http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004295 6
  7. 7. Over the next 15 years, we will experience more change than in all of human history to date. So how do we as engineers, marketers, designers, innovators and executives stay ahead of that change and help chart our own course? 7
  8. 8. At HP we believe major socio-economic, demographic and technological trends occurring across the globe will have a sustained, transformative impact on the world in the years ahead - on businesses, societies, economies, cultures and our personal lives. 8
  9. 9. 9
  10. 10. Source: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ 10
  11. 11. By 2030 there will be 8.5 billion people walking the earth. Source: http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2015/07/un-projects-world-population-to-reach-8-5-billion-by-2030-driven-by-growth-in- developing-countries/ 11
  12. 12. And this growing population is moving to cities. Now, this is nothing new, people have been moving to cities for centuries motivated by the promise of a better life - the standard of living in cities is about 2-3 times better than rural life - but because of the rapidly rising population, the sheer volume and pace of urbanization is going to be staggering. 12
  13. 13. 97% of that population growth will be in emerging economies, and most of these people will choose to call cities their home. By 2025/5B people will live in cities, 2.5B of them in Asia, mostly China and India. Source: United Nations 2014, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf 13
  14. 14. Source: United Nations 2014, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf And as people move to cities, our cities will get larger, and we’ll have more of them, including megacities in places many of us have never heard of today. • Between now and 2030, an additional 1.6 million people become urban every 10 days. • And as more people flow into cities, cities are becoming bigger, and we will have more of them. • In 1990 there were only 10 cities with more than 10 million people, but by 2030 we will have 41 such megacities. • Meanwhile, the area of urbanized land could triple globally from 2000 to 2030. This is equivalent to adding an area bigger than Manhattan every single day. 14
  15. 15. So the next obvious question is where will these megacities be? By 2030, 11 of the top 15 cities in the world will be in Asia, 9 of them in India and China. And because big cities drive economic growth, it is estimated that by 2025, 50% of global GDP growth will come from 440 cities in emerging markets, 95% of which many of us have never heard of. Sources: • United Nations, 2014, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf • McKinsey&Company, 2015, http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-four-global-forces- breaking-all-the-trends 15
  16. 16. For example, in 2010 Tianjin in China had the GDP of Stockholm, about $130B. But by 2025 will have the GDP of Sweden, about $630B. So city economies are becoming as big as country economies, and standalone markets unto themselves, many with their own unique culture, language and ecosystems. Source: No Ordinary Disruption: the four global forces breaking all the trends, Richard Dobbs 16
  17. 17. Source: McKinsey, 2012 The more people that flow into cities, the more businesses they attract, which in turn creates more jobs, which in turn attracts more people. So cities become economic growth engines. http://www.floatingpath.com/2013/05/08/per-capita-gdp-rises-with-urbanization 17
  18. 18. PPP: An economic theory that estimates the amount of adjustment needed on the exchange rate between countries in order for the exchange to be equivalent to each currency's purchasing power. Consuming class is defined as people with daily disposable income above $10 at purchasing power parity (PPP). Population below consuming class defined as individuals with disposable income below $10 at PPP Middle class refers to households that have an annual disposal income between $5,000 and $10,000. Global Middle Class = 3.9 billion people Source: Homi Kharas, McKinsey, Roland Berger, 2014 - http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class 18
  19. 19. • https://www.theinformation.com/How-Sharing-Economy-Threatens-the-TraditionalEconomy (chart on sharing economy vs traditional economy) • http://www.businessinsider.com/its-official-music-streaming-is-finally-bigger-than-downloads-2015-5 • http://mattermark.com/on-demand-economy/ • http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/02/instacart-workers_n_6548822.html • http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenhuet/2014/12/17/uber-says-its-doing-1-million-rides-per-day-140-million-in-last-year/ • https://corp.fon.com/sites/default/files/filelibrary/pr_fon_15_million_alex_ceo.pdf • http://recode.net/2015/05/27/airbnb-is-approaching-one-milllion-guests-per-night/ • https://www.lendingclub.com/info/statistics.action • http://www.weblessons.com/storage/images/81c305d716b3fbb5209e62314ae42cf0.jpg • http://www.web-strategist.com/blog/category/sharing-economy/ • http://www.pwc.com/en_US/us/technology/publications/assets/pwc-consumer-intelligence-series-the-sharing-economy.pdf 19
  20. 20. 20
  21. 21. To meet urban demand, China needs to: • Pave 5.0 billion square meters of roads • 170 mass-transit needs to be built • 40 billion square meters of floor space will be built – in five million buildings • 50,000 of these could be skyscrapers – equivalent to 10x New York City • Accommodate 390 million farmers by 2030 - cost of 51 trillion yuan (US$8.3 tr) • Over the next 10 years, 390 mil farmers moving into the cities will produce 40 trillion yuan (US$ 6.5 trillion) in investment • Therefore, if the policy is implemented properly, urbanization will have a macro effect on economic growth and restructuring. Electric power consumption was calculated by measuring consumption per capita against a baseline consumption (15,000 kWh) Sources: • http://global.beyondbullsandbears.com/2012/10/19/infrastructure- investment/ • http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Infrastructure_2013/$FILE/Infrast ructure_2013.pdf 21
  22. 22. Sources: • http://www.bidnessetc.com/46609-google-inc-sidewalk-labs-to-convert-nyc-phone-booths-into-free-wifi-station • http://gazettereview.com/2015/06/details-on-googles-sidewalk-labs-project 22
  23. 23. Sources: • Roland Berger, Euromonitor, EU Commission, Oxford Economics; 2014 • http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/03/23/UN-Only-60-percent-of-worlds-water-demand-to-be-met-in-2030/4151427120845/ (water demand increase by 2050) • http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2009/03/19/Researcher-predicts-2030-foodwater-crisis/UPI-56291237512075/?st_rec=56291237512075 (water demand increase by 2030) • http://www.agro.basf.com/agr/AP-Internet/en/content/competences/health_and_nature/index (arable land per person decline from 2005 – 2030) • http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/03/20/1372113/-U-N-Warns-Of-40-Fresh-Water-Shortfall-By-2030# (freshwater shortfall by 2030) 23
  24. 24. Source: Roland Berger, 2014 24
  25. 25. Sources: • Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Greenbiz, U.S. EIA; 2013 • http://www.popsci.com/article/science/how-world-wastes-food-infographic • http://blogs.cfr.org/development-channel/2014/10/30/reducing-food-loss-and-waste-to-feed-the-worlds-nine-billion-people-in-2050 25
  26. 26. On a small island off the coast of Denmark, a group of potato farmers have turned into power brokers, owning the wind turbines that have made their island a net energy producer. In less than ten years, Samsø went from producing 11 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person per year, one of the highest carbon emissions per capita in Europe, to just 4.4 tonnes (the U.S. is at 17.6), and proved that running on 100 percent renewable electricity is possible. Sources: • http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stefanie-penn-spear/samso-worlds-first-100-re_b_5303237.html • https://www.pinterest.com/pin/136585801169652511/ • http://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/29/introducing-samso-100-wind-powered-island/ 26
  27. 27. Sources: • http://www.ifsecglobal.com/map-safe-city-projects-around-world/ • Top Global Mega Trends to 2025 and Implications to Business, Society, and Cultures (2014 Edition), Frost & Sullivan • http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2011/09/29/market-smart-city-technology-reach-16b-year-2020 27
  28. 28. 28
  29. 29. Sources: • UN World Population Prospects - 2015 Revision • Fertility rate: Gapminder (http://www.gapminder.org/data/documentation/gd008/) • Life Expectancy: Earth Policy Institute from United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, electronic database • No Ordinary Disruption • Changing population data from World Bank Databank: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=Health%20Nutrition%20and%20Population%20Statistics:%20Population%20estimates% 20and%20projections# 29
  30. 30. By 2030 we’ll have twice as many people over the age of 65, nearly 1B people. The number of countries that are superaged, meaning that more than 20% of their population over 65, increase from 5 countries today to 31 countries in 2030. China, for example, currently has 26% of its population over 55 years old. By 2030, this will increase to 43%. Sources: • KPMG “Future State: 2030; The Global Megatrends Shaping Governments” • http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/8950/society/impact-ageing- population-economy/ • Moody’s Investor Service (http://money.cnn.com/2014/08/21/news/economy/aging-countries- moodys/) • Median Age: UN Population Division • http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2011/agingpopulationclocks.a spx 30
  31. 31. Changing demographics also mean a shrinking and aging labor force. Germany for example will lose nearly half it’s workforce by 2060, putting its economy at risk. As a result, the government there is currently spending $265B on family subsidies to try and get more people to have more babies. The labor force is also getting older, with workers over 55 years old growing by more than 50% compared to today. In developed countries, which are aging faster than developing countries, more than 30% of their workforce will be older than 55 by the year 2030. All of this means that companies will need to seriously look at their HR policies to attract and retain older talent to meet their workforce requirements. Sources: • McKinsey Global Institute Analysis • UN Population Data: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_indicators.htm 31
  32. 32. Less workers means less GDP growth, which puts a strain on economies and increases the reliance on immigration to make up the difference. But many countries have difficulty attracting migrants, for example Nordic countries, Japan and Russia, to name a few. As mentioned earlier, for countries with declining populations and high emigration rates, the economic results could be disastrous. Moreover, the number of people retiring is growing more than twice the rate of people entering the workforce, so there are fewer workers to pay for retires, putting pressure on global pension funds, social security and healthcare. As a result, most countries are planning to increase the pension age, with the UK targeting a pension age of 70! Sources: • IMF 2015 (http://www.ssa.gov/legislation/testimony_051804.html) • KPMG “Future State: 2030; The Global Megatrends Shaping Governments” 32
  33. 33. • http://www.immersionactive.com/resources/size-wealth-spending-50-consumers/ • https://ec.europa.eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/active-healthy-ageing/exec_silvereco.pdf • http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/08bff556-52c7-11e4-a236-00144feab7de.html#slide0 • http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/de6a5630-1d78-11e4-8b03-00144feabdc0.html#slide0 • http://silvergroup.asia/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/BCG-Global-Aging-Dec-11.pdf • UN Population Division: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/pdf/80chapterii.pdf • https://longitudes.ups.com/labor-in-the-age-of- robots/?utm_content=buffer35e7b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer • http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-09-17/aging-boomers-befuddle-marketers-eying-15-trillion-prize 33
  34. 34. Sources: • Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, 4/15. (BLS begins counting Civilian Labor Force at age 16. Millennials defined as those born between 1980 and 2000. In 2015, they are ages 15-35.) • https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/millennials_report.pdf • http://www.business2community.com/trends-news/27-stunning-millennial-stats-future-employees-leaders-consumers-parents- 01048696#WRAGmrTlgfKth3LI.99 • http://hrcloud.com/6-millennial-retention-strategies-to-adopt-in-2015/ • https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/marketing_center_consumer_customer_insight_how_millennials_changing_marketing_forever/ (BCG defines Millennials as aged between 18 and 34) 34
  35. 35. Sources: • http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2944590/Barclays-launch-new-apprenticeship-scheme-wannabe-bankers-50s-need-apply.html • http://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/27/should-you-worry-about-the-graying-workforce.html • http://www.fedcap.org/sites/default/files/fedcap_solution_series_leveraging_the_older_workforce_as_a_competitive_advantage.pdf 35
  36. 36. Sources: • McKinsey Global Institute Analysis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics • World Robotics Report 2008/2009/2010; “Robotic Nation” by Marshall Brain; IEEE Spectrum • Huffington Post article: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/23/middle-class-jobs-machines_n_2532639.html • http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/07/08/report-economy-will-face-shortage-of-5-million-workers-in-2020 • http://www.gizmag.com/half-of-us-jobs-computerized/29142/ 36
  37. 37. Automation of Knowledge Work: Intelligent software systems that can performknowledge work tasks involving unstructured commands and subtle judgments Sources: • McKinsey Global Institute: “Disruptive Technologies: Advances that will transform life, business and the global economy” • No Ordinary Disruption (Page 160) • http://www.computerworld.com/article/2691607/one-in-three-jobs-will-be-taken-by-software-or-robots-by-2025.html • http://ebrevia.com/oxford-study-cleverly-uses-automation-to-predict-the-effects-of-automation-in-the-workplace/ • http://which-50.com/blog/2013/june/15/140-million-full-time-jobs-created-or-destroyed-by-knowledge-work-automation-in-the-coming-age-of- the-machine-part-iv-of-our-mckinsey-study-review/#.VbfmEflViko 37
  38. 38. 38
  39. 39. Sources: • No Ordinary Disruption • Mary Meeker State of the Internet 2015 • http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditctab2014d2_en.pdf • Institute of International Finance. Financial Globalization: Maximizing Benefits, Containing Risks (Dec 1st 2014) • http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users • http://blog.euromonitor.com/2015/04/half-the-worlds-population-will-be-online-by-2030.html – 53% of population in 2030 • 2030 Internet and Mobile Usage (50% and 75% of population, respectively): http://www.kpmg.com/ID/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/Future-State-2030.pdf 39
  40. 40. Sources: • McKinsey Global Institute; Global Flows in a Digital Age: How trade, finance, people and data connect the world economy (April 2014) • Future of World Trade: Top 25 Sea and Air Freight Routes in 2030 (http://economics.pwc.com) 40
  41. 41. • McKinsey Global Institute; Global Flows in a Digital Age: How trade, finance, people and data connect the world economy (April 2014) • http://www.shapeways.com/blog/archives/19636-have-a-3d-printer-join- shapeways-global-partner-network.html • http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/transferwise-valued-at-1bn- by-top-silicon-valley-venture-capital-fund-10002618.html • http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/11/its-official-google-buys-waze-giving-a-social- data-boost-to-its-location-and-mapping-business/ • http://newsroom.uber.com/2014/12/the-ride-ahead/ • http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/morning_call/2015/05/uber-valuation- 50-billion-facebook-startup.html • http://gadgets.ndtv.com/internet/news/dropbox-sees-growth-from-200-million-to- 300-million-users-in-6-months-532671 • http://qz.com/329735/airbnb-will-soon-be-booking-more-rooms-than-the-worlds- largest-hotel-chains/ • http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/business/airbnb-grows-to-a-million-rooms- and-hotel-rivals-are-quiet-for-now.html?_r=0 • http://www.macstories.net/news/instagrams-rise-to-30-million-users-visualized/ • https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/internet-startups-vc-2014/ • http://graphics.wsj.com/billion-dollar-club/ 41
  42. 42. Sources: • http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25872215 • http://wdtechnew.blogspot.com/2015/07/xiaomi-led-chinese-smartphone-market-in.html • https://www.techinasia.com/letv-xiaomi-performing-chinas-flatscreen-tv-market/ • Canalys - Xiaomi makes inroad to payment ; July 2015 • http://graphics.wsj.com/billion-dollar-club/ 42
  43. 43. Sources: • No Ordinary Disruption • http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_the_shifting_global_business_landscape 43
  44. 44. Sources: • http://seekingalpha.com/article/2651195-increasing-churn-rate-in-the-s-and-p-500-whats-the-lifespan-of-your-stock • http://marketingtochina.com/the-whole-story-of-baidu/ • http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/94296020-1eef-11e4-9d7d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3h9TXvSEK • http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2010-09-09/news/27625426_1_emerging-market-msci-world-index-market-value • http://risecapital.com/5-trillion-opportunity.html • http://thenextweb.com/in/2014/07/10/taking-on-uber-in-india-how-ola-cabs-is-thinking-local-to-battle-a-giant/ • http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/15/ola-series-e-400-million/ • http://www.zdnet.com/article/olacabs-steamrolls-uber-with-acquisition-of-taxiforsure/ 44
  45. 45. Sources: • Quartz: http://qz.com/448564/these-companies-have-burned-tens-of-billions-of-dollars-trying-to-chase-the-iphone/ • http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2014/07/14/by-disrupting-disruption-netflix-reveals-new-investing-strategy/ • http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrymagid/2012/07/25/netflix-stumbles-but-streaming-is-here-to-stay/ • http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/06/13/why-netflix-is-producing-original-content/ • http://www.forbes.com/sites/avidan/2013/08/20/the-death-of-scale-is-kodaks-failure-an-omen-of-things-to-come-for-corporate-america/ • http://www.forbes.com/sites/spleverage/2013/08/20/eastman-kodak-wins-approval-of-bankruptcy-reorganization-plan/ • http://fortune.com/2011/10/11/how-not-to-get-netflixed/ 45
  46. 46. 46
  47. 47. Joaquín: 23-year-old Brazilian Graphic Designer. He recently started his own freelance business out of college, blending his love of design, photography and videography. Joaquín lives in a small apartment in an up and coming urban complex by the seaport and uses the shared co-working space as his office. He loves the global metropolitan feel of São Paulo and spends his weekends donating his services to various charities. (Generation Z Mobile Worker) 47
  48. 48. Chen: 35-year-old Diabetic Aerospace Executive living in Tianjin, one of the fastest growing cities in Asia. She works for a global corporation with team members and suppliers across the globe. A busy executive she struggles to keep up with friends and family, and stay on top of her health. (Emerging Markets/New Cities) 48
  49. 49. Francois: 68-year-old Landscape Designer and Freelance Building Manager in U.S. Having worked for the same design firm for the past 31 years he enjoys having the flexibility to work on other projects and travel part of the year. 49
  50. 50. Amira: 43-year-old Heart Surgeon, Mother of two living in Mumbai. An active environmentalist in her community and remote attending and professor for John Hopkins Hospital. (Parenting/Healthcare Worker) 50
  51. 51. Joaquín gets out of bed and heads to the kitchen where coffee is already brewing and toast popping up. As he leaves the room his platform bed rises into it’s ceiling holding space revealing a sunken in living room space. 51
  52. 52. Self Driving Car Picks up Chen in front of her apartment building to take her to a client meeting across town. She participates in a video call with her South African supplier Mbali. Her mobile phone activates real-time translation so they can easily communicate 52
  53. 53. Francois steps into the bathroom, his shower turns on to his temperature and water pressure preferences, the shampoo bottle calculates it will be empty in 3 days and places and order for a new bottle to be delivered tomorrow. 53
  54. 54. Amira’s watch pulses, her son Donald’s moisture-sensor diaper lets her know he needs to be changed. 54
  55. 55. Joaquín enters the shared workspace in his building complex and settles in at his mobile worker desk in the for the day. Joaquin uses his smart phone as his computer, and docks with a built in display and keyboard. Building sensors automatically configures his workstation, chair, lights, desktop picture and applications bar to his preferences. His client is charged by the hour for his office time. 55
  56. 56. Chen scan’s bracelet at client offices to gain access. Client is notified of her arrival. 56
  57. 57. Francois tends to crops on the 14th floor of the FarmScraper 57
  58. 58. Amira settles into her home office to find a warm cup of green tea brewing (Mina, her virtual assistant noticed she had a rough nights sleep). With a touch of a button her side board table converts into an office desk. 58
  59. 59. Joaquín grabs a pizza at the 3D Printing food vending machine 59
  60. 60. Chen’s robot pet sitter takes her dog Maggie for a walk. Her refrigerator places a grocery delivery order with her favorite local market, cross checking ingredients for sugar levels. 60
  61. 61. Francois is talked through fixing a faulty building air conditioner by the maintenance center across country via a pair of smart glasses. 61
  62. 62. Amira parks her bike under the Solar Farm as she stops to grab lunch to go on her way to the hospital for afternoon rounds. 62
  63. 63. Surrounded by projected conference rooms around the globe, Joaquin is 3D presenting his new design for the hover board launch campaign including a building print wrap. 63
  64. 64. Chen is notified that her new manufacturing partner for the 4D printed self assembling space craft has arrived. Romi, her Virtual Assistant, provides information about all coming attendees and she walks to the front desk to greet everyone. 64
  65. 65. Francois’s Robot assistant pauses from moving landscaping supplies to remind Francois to take his medication. 65
  66. 66. Amira is using haptic holography to examine with her hands a deteriorating heart valve from one of her patients scans as he students look on remotely. 66
  67. 67. Joaquín’s watch suggest a new walking route to dinner to avoid pollution and traffic noise. 67
  68. 68. Chen takes a water ferry to a neighboring City Island to have dinner with friends. The diabetes monitoring device in Chen’s ear notifies her of low blood sugar. 68
  69. 69. As Francois leaves the building lights turn off behind him, and thermostat is lowered for the evening. 69
  70. 70. Amir’s oldest child, Lea is getting math help from their home robot. Her home network suggests and displays easy 30-minute dinner recipes 70
  71. 71. Joaquin sits in his living room video conferencing with his sister in Singapore and his parents in Porto Alegre. 71
  72. 72. Chen’s receives a notification on her TV she’s left secure documents on a cloud drive open on her computer system, the office security monitoring system has closed the document on her behalf and shut down her computer. 72
  73. 73. Francois 3D prints a new tooth brush before getting ready for bed. His electronic closet is cueing up an outfit for tomorrow with temperature expected to drop and a chance of rain. 73
  74. 74. As Amira is reading, she notices a photo pop through her condo’s printer slot, Mig her virtual assistant surprises her with a sweet photo of a Lea playing with the family dog after school. 74
  75. 75. With the accelerated pace of change comes the equally accelerated rate of innovation 75
  76. 76. Every 10 years, processing power per $ will increase by a thousand, 20 years by a million, 30 years by a billion… Sources: • http://www.singularity.com/charts/page70.html • https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uy/Documents/public-sector/Deloitte_ES_Sector-Publico_From-exponential-technologies-to- exponential-innovation.pdf • http://www.mstech.com/nh-it-blog.php?show=171 • http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/get-your-head-into-the-cloud-humans-will-be-artifically-intelligent-by-2030-ray-kurzweil-predicts/ 76
  77. 77. Source: Simon Wardley 77
  78. 78. Source: http://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-en/industry/technology/from-exponential-technologies-to-exponential-innovation.html Technology components are constantly maturing and becoming more accessible, paving the way for new advancements. 78
  79. 79. Source: HP CTO Office, 2015 We believe the most rapid innovation will occur in four key technology areas that we refer to as • HyperMobility • 3D Transformation • Internet of ALL Things • Smart Machines At HP we look at the Megatrends and the technology trends that will help us adapt to them through the lens of our Blended Reality vision. We continually explore how our physical and digital realities relate and fuse with each other, so that businesses and individuals can keep reinventing the way they shape and experience the world around them. 79
  80. 80. 80
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  83. 83. Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2013/08/11/korea-constructs-road-that-wirelessly-charges-moving-electric-buses/ 83
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  86. 86. http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/with-emotion-tracking-software-affectiva-attracts-clients-mood-aware-internet-0731 86
  87. 87. http://www.businessinsider.com/this-robot-passed-a-self-awareness-test-that-only-humans-could-handle-until-now-2015-7 87
  88. 88. Pepper most likely was built on a branch of artificial intelligence called machine learning, where training data is labelled and fed into an algorithm which uses statistics to “recognize” the content of the photographs, videos etc. Pepper is (also) connected to the cloud, feeding data from its sensors to server clusters, where the lion’s share of processing will take place. This should allow their emotion recognition algorithms to improve over time, as repeated use provides fresh training examples. If rather than optimizing profit, they are using Pepper as a means towards perfecting emotion recognition, than this may be part of a larger play to gain superior intellectual property. Sources: • http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/208666-its-happening-pepper-robot-gains-emotional-intelligence • http://www.pcworld.com/article/2938592/1000-pepper-robots-sell-out-in-a-minute-on-launch-day.html 88
  89. 89. Sources: • http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/04/07/study-suggests-chemical-used-in-bp-oil-spill-cleanup-capable-of-injuring- people-and-wildlife/ • https://www.newscientist.com/blogs/nstv/2012/05/self-propelled-micro-submarine-cleans-up-motor-oil.html • http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30875102 89
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  92. 92. Sources: • https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/puzzlebox/puzzlebox-orbit-brain-controlled-helicopter • http://www.techlicious.com/blog/mattel-mindflex-gives-brain-waves-a-workout/ 92
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  95. 95. Sources: • http://icrowdnewswire.com/2015/06/04/gloveone-feel-virtual-reality-what-if-you-could-feel-virtual-reality-gloveone-lets-you-use-both-hands- to-sense-interact-with-virtual-objects-on-screenvr-glasses/ • http://x-tech.am/politicians-are-scoring-millions-of-voters-by-using-hologram-tech/ • http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3038317/The-world-s-HOLOGRAM-protest-Thousands-join-virtual-march-Spain-against-law-banning- demonstrations-outside-government-buildings.html • http://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2014/december/haptic-shapes-using-ultrasound.html 95
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  99. 99. Researchers in Germany have unveiled the Alpha IMS retinal prosthesis; a device that completely redefines the state of the art of implanted, bionic devices. The first round of clinical trials were a huge success, with eight out of nine patients reporting that they can now detect mouth shapes (smiles, frowns), small objects such as telephones and cutlery, signs on doors, and — most importantly — whether a glass of wine is red or white. Source: http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/149106-the-first-real-high-resolution-user-configurable-bionic-eye 99
  100. 100. Two super-thin electrode arrays, each covered in 32 recessed electrodes, will run directly from the device into the skull, where they will stimulate and record the activity of the neurons in the entorhinal cortex and hippocampus, areas of the brain associated with memory. Because memory is stored across many neurons, the concept for the wireless implant is to monitor the electrical activity between neurons, and if a connection starts to weaken, the device will compensate with its own current. Source: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a10886/a-wireless-implant-to-fight-memory-loss-16984118/ 100
  101. 101. Sources: • http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a16236/artificial-neuron/ • http://www.alphr.com/bioscience/1001053/functioning-artificial-neuron-created-in-sweden 101
  102. 102. Sources: • http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11003909/Genomics-is-not-overhyped-it-really-can-change-medicine.html • http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/297844.php • http://news.uchicago.edu/article/2015/08/13/landmark-sequencing-octopus-genome-shows-basis-intelligence-camouflage • http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-08/13/c_134513151.htm • http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-david-samadi/conquering-cancer-personalized-medicine-is-the-future_b_7585544.html 102
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  104. 104. Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/crispr-breakthrough-announced-in-technique-of-editing-dna-to-fight-off-deadly-illnesses- 10420050.html 104
  105. 105. Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/540116/gene-editing-startup-raises-120-million-to-apply-crispr-to-medicine/ 105
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  109. 109. Additional Resources: • Megatrends video: http://bit.ly/megatrends_ss • Megatrends article: http://bit.ly/megatrends_HPij • Megatrends presentation: http://bit.ly/megatrends_pres • Megatrends LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/megatrends-rapid-urbanization-andrew-bolwell?trk=prof-post • HP CTO YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCv707gj2KW7EaDEABI9QRjA Interested in learning more or discussing Megatrends? Let’s connect! http://www.twitter.com/andrewbolwell 109
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