Based on a previous the risk assessment of the city of Garm, which faces threats from earthquake, floods and mudslides, it is necessary to explore mitigation methods to lessen the likelihood of fatalities of the local residents. Two methods - build local community shelters and reforestation – are proposed and discussed in detail on seven different aspects: social, technical, administrative, political, legal, economic and environmental.

1. RISK MITIGATION METHODS
Proposed mitigationoptions for the city of Garm
(Tajikistan)
Amy (Anh) Do
amy.do@alumni.ubc.ca
Summary
There are drawbacks and advantages to each method of risk mitigation in Garm, Tajikistan.
Buildingcommunity shelters or strivingfor reforestation,the city’s political,social and economic
background affect the feasibility and effectiveness of each proposed solutions.
29 October, 2015
Lund University,Sweden

2. i
Abstract
Basedon a previousthe riskassessmentof the cityof Garm, whichfacesthreatsfrom earthquake,floodsandmudslides,
it isnecessaryto explore mitigationmethodsto lessenthe likelihoodof fatalitiesof the local residents. Twomethods -
buildlocal communitysheltersandreforestation –are proposedanddiscussedindetailonsevendifferentaspects:
social,technical,administrative,political,legal,economicand environmental (STAPLEE).
The city of Garm has unique featuresthataffectthe effectivenessof mitigationoptions.Tajikistanasawhole haslimited
economiccapacity,therefore posingchallengestofindingfundingandfinancial aidformitigationoptions.People in
Garm have strong cultural tieswithagriculture andalthoughliteracyrate isveryhigh,enrollmentinhighereducationis
low,leadingtolackof skilledexperts (UNICEF,n.d.).Afterthe civil warthatendedin1997, the political climate isstable
witha longrunningmajority government.Beingadevelopingcountry,Tajikistanalsohasmanyopportunitiestogain
fundingfrominternational agents,whichGarmcan make use of to fundmitigationoptions.
Afterexploringvariousadvantagesanddrawbacksof eachmethod,itisconcludedthatreforestationshouldbe
prioritizedbecauseof itslowinitiatingcostand evenlydistributed secondarybenefitstoagriculture,economyand
environment.
Contents
Background................................................................................................................................................................1
Method 1 – Buildlocal community shelters..................................................................................................................1
Method 2 – Reforestation...........................................................................................................................................2
Prioritization and Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................4
Bibliography...............................................................................................................................................................6

3. 1
Background
Thispaperbuildsuponthe riskassessmentof the cityof Garm, Tajikistan,where risksof mudslides,earthquakesand
floodsare assessedandquantified.Backgroundinformationof the cityandthe natural hazards are describedindetail in
the reportdated 12, October2015.
Giventhe hazardsaffectingGarm, benefitsanddrawbacksof twomitigationmethodsare proposedandanalyzedin
detail in thispaperbasedonthe STAPLEE method (Coppola,2011).
Method 1 – Build local community shelters
The firstmitigationmeasure istoconstructa numberof local shelterstoprovide emergencyshelterandbasicsupplies,
like food,waterandfirstaid - immediate relief forpeople affectedbythe hazards. Shelterscanbe builtnew,otherwise,
local schoolsand mosques can be structurallyretrofittedandmodifiedtoserve asemergencyshelterwhenneeded. A
thoroughplanningprocessshouldinvestigatethe existingbuildingsandconditionstodecide where new sheltersshould
be constructed,and where retrofittingismore appropriate. The sheltersshouldbe able toresistearthquakesandshould
be maintainedfrequentlytoensure suppliesare adequate andingoodconditions. The capacityof the shelters depends
on theirsizes,ranginganywhere between50to 2000 people (Okeechobee EmergencyManagement,2012).It is
assumedthatthe average capacityfor a shelterisaround500, and witha populationof about9,500 people (Divisionof
RiskManagementandSocietySafety,2015), an estimatednumberof 19 sheltersshould be constructedthroughoutthe
city.Thisnumber,however,maychange dependingonallocationanddeterminedneedsof local communities.
Social
Since some populationareasalreadyhave large proportionsof steelbuildings,sheltersbenefitthe poorerareas,who
mostlyownadobe houses,the most.Itcan be safelyassumedthatmosquesandschoolsare commoninthe
communities,basedonthe highliteracyrate andthe widelypracticedIslaminTajikistan (Pew ResearchCenter,2012).
These buildingscanbe convertedinto shelterswithminimal disruptionstothe neighbourhoods.Othersheltersmay
needtobe built,sothe processof obtaininglandandconstructionmaycause temporaryminoreffects,suchasnoise,
but nomajor relocationof anypopulationsegmentsisneeded. Infindingaplace to buildnew shelters,the authorities
shouldmake sure thatthe state isnot takingawayresidentsforlowerincome citizens.Communityshelterscanalso
serve aslocationsforvariouscommunityfunctionssuchasweddings,gatherings,marketplace,smallhistorical and
cultural museumsetc.,therefore strengtheningthe cultural valuesof local communities.Byfosteringastrongsense of
community,the localsalsohave ahigherchance of survival whendisasterstrikesasneighboursare more likelyto
provide aidtoone another.
Technical
Sheltersshouldmeetthe standardof steel buildingstoensure safetytooccupantsincase of an earthquake. Since the
cityalreadyhas some experience withbuildingsteelstructures,thismeasure istechnicallyfeasiblewithlocal knowledge.
Othertechnical considerationsare alsoimportanttodeterminethe mosteffective waytoretrofitexistingbuildings and
may require engineeringexpertise.Earthquakeengineeringadvancementscanprovide manyreadily availablesolutions
to the city.Sheltersare a direct,shorttermsolution,aimedatreducingthe consequence of the natural hazardsand
savinglivesimmediately.
Administrative
Thismeasure requires leadershipfromlocal government toestablishlong-termstaff thatoversees,plansand
implementsthe constructionprocess.There are manyopportunitiesamonglocal workerswhocanprovide knowledgeof
existingconditionsandlabour,withexpertsfromnational orinternational levelstoprovide technical advice.Sincemost

4. 2
shelterscanbe usedalsoas communitygatherings,itiseasytomaintainthe buildingsingoodcondition.The biggest
challenge isobtainingfundingsince constructioncanbe costly.Garm may needtoreach outfor financial aid andexpert
helpfromfederal governmentorinternational organization.
Political
Communitysheltersare generallynotperceivedtobe politicallycontroversial,since localsare involvedandbenefited
throughthe process. Publicconsultationandengagementshouldbe carriedouttoensure thatresidentsare thoroughly
informedandtheiropinionsheard,especiallyintermsof the locationsof sheltersandstructural modifications.Sincethis
mitigationmeasure doesnotdrasticallyaffectanycultural orbehavioural patternamongcommunities,itisexpectedto
not encountermajorpolitical pushbackfromthe federal andlocal government.
Legal
The city of Garm has the authoritytopermitconstructionandrenovationof buildings.A thoroughlegal consultationof
landownership(incase landneedstobe acquiredtobuildshelters) isneeded,howeverthe amountof landneededfor
shelterswouldnotbe large,andlandrightsare majorlyheldbylocal government (USAID,2010).
Economic
The cost for thismeasure ishighand includesamaintenance cost.Exactcostis hardto obtainwithoutthoroughanalysis
of local supplyandlabourmarket,butgiventhatthe percentage of steel buildingownershipamongthe populationareas
inGarm isonlyapproximately14% (Divisionof RiskManagementandSocietySafety,2015),withalmosthalf the areasat
0%, it isinferredthatthese buildingsare costlytobuildandonlyprevalentamongwealthierdemographicsinthe city.
Fundingcanbe obtainedthroughmanysources.Fromthe local or federal government,fundingcancome fromincome
tax,currentlyat 13% (TajikistainPersonal Income Tax Rate,2015). Giventhe large variationof steel buildingownership
amongdifferentpopulationareas,abracketedhighertax rate for the wealthiestmaybe introducedtoraise moneyfor
shelters.Thishowevercancause political issues. Since the tax rate islow and Tajikistan’seconomyfacesmany
challenges,international aidfromvariousdisasterrelief agenciesisalsoanoption,forexample fromthe UnitedNations’
Central Emergency ResponseFund (CERF,2015) or the International Federationof RedCrossandRedCrescentSocieties
(IFRC,2015).
The benefitsare significantandimmediate.Shelterssave livespromptlywhendisasterstrikes andiseffectiveat
providingnecessarysuppliestosustainlife untilthe crisishaspassed. Sheltersworkacrossall three hazardsand
therefore canpotentiallysave manylives.
Environmental
There are noforeseeableanddrasticimpactof buildingsheltersonthe local environment. Wastesfromconstructionsite
may release toxicchemicalsintothe natural environment. Choosinglocal andsustainable materialswhenever
appropriate reducesthe carbonfootprintof construction.
Method 2 – Reforestation
Reforestationisamitigationmethodthataimstoreduce the likelihood thatmudslideshappen. Itisimportantnotjustin
Garm but also in Tajikistanbecause the currentconditionsare dire asillustratedinfigure 1,“withsmall brokenstripsof
tree-coveredland […],invariablyinthe formof sparselyforestedstandstypical of all aridmountainregions.”
(Akhmadov,2008).Some programs forreforestationrecognize the importance of thisin preventingmudslides,suchasin
Guatemala(Mudslide Prevention,2015) and Taiwan (Lu,2001). Garm can gainfrom the experience thatothercountries
have had withreforestation. Forestsdecrease the riskof mudslide bystrengthening andimprovingsoil cohesion,
increasingwaterdrainage throughthe soil layerand increasingslope stabilitywith theirdense roots (Sidle etal.,2016).
Because mudslidesaffectlocalizedareas,itisimportanttoperformgeological surveystodetermine the existing
conditionsof soil andaddresshigh-riskareasbefore carryingoutreforestationefforts.

5. 3
Figure 1 Forest resources of Tajikistan (Akhmadov, 2008)
Social
Garm’s cultural thathas strong tieswiththe RhastValleyismore centeredonagriculture thanforestry. Only3%of the
country’sarea iscoveredbyforestandforestresourcesare depleteddue topoverty (Akhmadov,2008).Therefore,
methodstoraise awarenessandincrease supportamonglocal communitiesare needed.Reforestationshouldnothave
manysignificantdisruptionstolocal neighbourhoods,although usingalarge area of land forforestmay be perceivedas
takingaway land fromagriculture,especiallycottonproduction andgrazinglandforlivestock.Therefore publicsupport
isgreatlyneededandeducationof the long-termbenefitsof forestwillfosterpositive publicperception.Thiscanbe
done throughvariouseducationprogramsorincorporationintoexisting school curriculum.
Technical
Reforestationiseasytocarryout and doesnotrequire a lotof special expertise,however,atthe beginning,expertsin
geologyandforestryare neededtoidentifyhigh-riskareas. Because Tajikistanwentthroughacivil war,the countryonly
established specializedinstitute totrainforestspecialistsin1997 (Akhmadov,2008).This meansaccessto expertsis
limitedinGarm,andsupportfrom othermunicipalitiesorcountrieswouldbe needed.Fortunately,the majorityof the
reforestationeffortscanbe achievedbylocal rangersandworkerswithbasictraining (DeutscheWelle,2013).However,
challengesmayarise athigheraltitudeswhere the steepslope preventssome largermachineryfromentering.
Otherwise,treescanbe readilyobtainedfromexistingforest since Tajikistanhasarich varietyof species (Akhmadov,
2008). This effective mitigationmethoddirectlyaimstosolve the rootof the mudslide problem, notjust providingrelief
whendisasterhappens.Fromatechnical pointof view,reforestationisfeasible andreduceslossesinthe longterm,
however,the benefitsare delayedandhardto quantifyinthe immediatefuture.
Administrative
The challengesforreforestationare acrossall issuesof staffing,fundingandmaintenance.Because itisalongterm
solution,the cityneedsastrongbase of longterm staff whoadministerthe programformanyyears.Continuousand
stable fundingforthe programisalsocrucial to keepingthe effortsaliveandeffective.Forestsalsoneedtobe
maintainedandprotectedfromillegal logging,whichcanbe achievedthroughregularinspectionandmonitoring.These

6. 4
are dauntingtasksthatrequire supportfromall levelsof governmentandalsofromneighbouringauthorities.Tajikistan
has encounteredthese issuesinthe past:from1993 onwards,the countrylostabout23% of itsforestareadue to lack of
funds,andthe adverse soil andclimate conditions causedlow survivalrate among the treesplanted –around68-78%
(Akhmadov,2008).For the reforestationprogramtosucceed,betterandlongertermadministrativeplanningisneeded.
Political
The governmentof Tajikistanhaslongbeenamajoritygovernment since 1994 (The WashingtonPost,2006), who can
provide the neededlongtermpolitical supportandleadership.Local authoritiescanbe persuadedtosupportthe
program giventhe benefitsof reforestation.The mainissue forgatheringpolitical supportwouldbe the perceptionthat
it takesawayagriculture landforforests. Evenjusta small numberlocal forestexpertcanhelpinspire andeducate
people,thereforegainingsupportfromcommunities (Deutsche Welle,2013).
Legal
Illegal loggingisaserious challenge toreforestation.Because alarge numberof people livinginpovertyinGarm,and
Tajikistaningeneral, manyinhabitantsexploitthe forestresourcesinvariousways,especiallytomake landforlivestock.
The Constitutionandthe ForestCode protectsforestresource (Akhmadov,2008); howeverenforcementcanbe difficult
to implementwiththe widespreadissueof illegal logging.
Economic
Reforestationisrelativelyinexpensivebecause of the low costof labourandreadilyavailablesupplies.The costwill
mainlycome fromadministrative andlegal aspects,whichalong run,continuouscosts.Because climate change isa
recognizedissue throughoutthe world,Garmcanapplyfor internationalfundingfrommanyorganizationsthatsupport
reforestation.
The benefitsof reforestation are profound,longtermandmulti-fold.Itcreatesjobsformanylocals,preventserosion,
improvessoil conditionsnotonlyforthe mountainousareasbutalsoforfarmland, cultivatesamore sustainable living
and agriculture culture througheducation,andcontributestothe national andglobal movementof protectingthe
environment.However,the benefitstolocal Garmresidentsare delayedandwilltake manyyearstosee the results.
Environmental
Reforestationhasmultipleundeniableenvironmentalbenefitsforland,water,airresourcesand potentially even
endangeredspecies.Forestsimprove vastlythe conditionof natural soil,reduce riskof mudslide and improve airquality
for Garm. Forestsalsobecome homesof manyanimalsandincreatinghectaresof forestland,Garm will move more
towardsachievingenvironmental sustainablegoals.
Prioritization and Conclusion
Followingthe detaileddiscussionof eachmethodonthe 7 aspects,below isasummaryof the mitigationoptionsusing
the STAPLEE method. A plussign(+) meansthe optionscan achieve the goal easily,orhaspositive impacts.A negative
sign(-) meansthe optionswill face challengestoachieve the goal,orhasnegative impacts.A slash(/) meansthere are
neutral or nosignificantimpactsora mix of positive andnegative impacts.

7. 5
STAPLEE
Criteria
S
(ocial)
T
(echnical)
A
(dministrati
ve)
P (olitical) L (egal) E (conomic) E (nvironmental)
Considera
tions
Communityacceptance
Effectonsegmentofpopulation
TechnicalFeasibility
Long-termSolution
SecondaryImpacts
Staffing
FundingAllocated
Maintenance/Operations
PoliticalSupport
LocalChampion
PublicSupport
StateAuthority
ExistingLocalAuthority
PotentialLegalChallenge
BenefitofAction
CostofAction
ContributestoEconomicGoals
OutsideFundingRequired
EffectonLand/Water
EffectonEndangeredSpecies
EffectonHAZMAT/WasteSites
ConsistentwithCommunity
EnvironmentalGoals
ConsistentwithFederalLaws
AlternativeActions
Build
communit
y shelters
+ + + - / + + + + / + + + + + - / + / / - / /
Reforesta
tion
/ + / + / - + - / + / + + - + + + + + + + + +
Table 1 STAPLEE summaryof mitigation alternatives
The two methodsdiscussedare differentonanumberof aspects.Communitysheltersare ashort term, more direct
approach to mitigatingthe consequence of the all the natural hazards.Reforestationisalongterm approachthat
reducesthe likelihoodof occurrence of mostlyonly mudslides.Whereasbuildingcommunityshelters provide immediate
relief duringdisasterandthe potential tofosterasense of community,reforestationhasthe variouspositive impactson
the environmentinthe longrun. Sheltersrequireahighcost to start,whereasreforestationrequireslong-term
maintenance costs,especiallyinlegal enforcement. Sheltersbenefitalargernumberof people whoare affectedbyall
three hazards,whereasreforestationonlyhelpsmudslidevictims. Overall,bothof the alternativescangathergood
political,social andlegal support,butdifferinadministrative needs,economicbenefits,technical requirementsand
environmental impacts. Theyhave anequal numberof negative signs,whichimpliesthe decidingfactorliesinthe
positive benefitsthateachmethodoffers.
Basedon the nature of the benefitsof reforestation,itisrecommendedthatthismethodisprioritized.Reforestation
providesbenefitsthatare evenlydistributedthroughoutthe city, targetsthe problemof mudslide, notjustthe
consequences andhasmajorbenefitsforagriculture andthereforethe economyandenvironment.Becausethe starting
cost isrelativelylow,reforestationcanhappensoonanddoesnothave to waitfor fundingtobe granted.In the long
termhowever,leadershipandfinancial aidisneededto allow the programtocontinue.
It isworthwhile tonote thatitis notmeaningful tocountthe numberof positive plussignstoevaluateanoption.The
impactsare differentinsize andlengthof impact,andthe lackof establishedindicatoranddefinitionof whatis
“positive”and“negative”addstothe challenge of prioritizingthe options.

8. 6
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