1. April 21, 2016 Urban Transportation Planning Aman Trehan
CTRANS Memorandum
TO: Dr. Abtrans Livemore, Director, Transportation Planning Dept.
FROM: Aman Trehan
SUBJECT: Scenarios using transit solutions
This analysis evaluates the potential transit-based solutions to reduce traffic congestion in
Cubetown. From the past few stakeholder meetings, it is clear that expanding the road
network any further is neither politically feasible nor the most effective way to deal with
the issue of traffic jams in and around the Central Business District (CBD) area.
So, really the question before us is how to provide services that are most well aligned
with how Cubetowers want to get around for their jobs, schools, and other important
trips. The demographic analysis (attached maps) reveals that majority of jobs are located
in the central and the western part of the town besides the strong concentration in the
CBD area where all the lines meet.
Existing Network
Our 4-line transit network is radial and all lines meet in the densest part of the town – the
CBD. The N-S movement is well served by the Rail mode which is really the workhorse
of our system running most frequently (every 8 min) and enables two-thirds of the daily
trips in the system (Table 1). The Flash service comes next with 10 min headways and
encircles (connects) a large part of the central zones in the town. The Red Line connects
the north eastern zones to the downtown and then the Blue Line that runs twice as long
covers the eastern zones south of the CBD.
Cubetown, being a small city will have a much larger percentage of captive riders (Black,
1995). The situation gets a bit tricky here because we also want to attract the drivers who

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are adding to the traffic congestion and don’t see transit (in its current state) as an
attractive option. The choice to be made to distribute the resources among this lines
depends on the outcome of the Measure T proposal.
Typically 80% of such initiatives have succeeded at the voting booth in the past (Jaffe,
2012). For our analysis, I have considered both outcomes – whether T passes or fails to
create 4 scenarios for the future of transit in Cubetown. Each of the scenarios is created
by altering the peak AM headway to arrive at the ridership projections. The trips that
typically happen in this time window are work trips and only 15% of all trips in a city -
but they are the primary reason for congestion in most cities (Barber, 1995).
T Fails - So “Make Peace”
Now, the Measure T has failed and we must make peace with the given resources. The
only option here is to shift buses around and focus on the underserved zones. So, the
Flash service will be degraded by increasing headways from 10 mins to 15 mins and the 2
extra bus extracted from here will be deployed on each of the other lines – the Red & the
Blue. The result is higher headways on both these lines.
Line Base (mins) MakePeace (mins) Effect:
Ridership
changes
Flash 10 15 -36%
Blue 15 12 +27%
Red 15 10 +50%
Rail (No changes) -9.5%
The total ridership numbers go down here and even slip below the Base scenario (10%)
but we will have to endure this. The transit-disadvantaged communities in the north and

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the southern parts have to get to the downtown for their jobs and the Flash patrons will
have to spend a few more minutes for their bus so that we can strike the balance.
T Passes – Either “More Flash”
Here, all the three bus lines are getting more buses but Flash gets the maximum chunk of
resources and the new headways are now even better than the Rail mode. At 6 mins
headway, this new lifeline of our town materializes our vision of a truly high frequency
system connecting central zones of the town along its 10-mile loop. This will be the
opportunity to attract the choice-riders to the system who will have to wait for maximum
6 mins to get to the most frequent service in town.
The Red Line and the Blue also have improved headways but strangely while the
numbers on the Blue service improve significantly, the Red Line numbers go down quite
a bit. This could be the consequence of riders making markedly differently choices since
the Red Line competes with the Rail option. The good news is that overall system
ridership goes up by 25%.
T passes – Or “More Blue”
The motivation for this scenario is to provide more frequent service to the eastern zones
south of the CBD. So, by deploying 5 more buses on this line, the headways are almost
halved to 8 mins. While the ridership on the Blue goes up by 22%, the real jump in the
numbers comes with the 44% increase in the Flash ridership. Although, the Flash gets a
new bus too, the highly frequent Blue service significantly improves access to the Flash.
The total ridership goes up by 17% in this case.

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Table 1. Total Passengers Carried, AM Peak Hour, Ctrans Lines, Base
& Three Alternative Scenarios
Red Line Blue Line Flash Rail Total
Base 298 315 1115 3444 5172
Measure T fails
Alternative
Make Peace
451 401 709 3118 4679
Measure T Passes
Alternative
More Flash
240 569 1775 3904 6488
Alternative
More Blue
294 385 1598 3775 6052
Conclusion
To sum this up, if T falls through, the way forward is clear - shift resources to increase
services in the under-served parts of the town. Now, if T decision is agency’s favor, the
choice will have to be made between creating a highly frequent service for the central
zones or intensifying service in the Blue and the Red service zones.

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Figure 1: Cubetown Transit Map

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Figure 2. Range of Income Groups

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Figure 3. Employment Distribution, Cubetown

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Figure 4. Population Density by TAZs, Cubetown

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REFERENCES
(n.d.). Retrieved from City of Fargo:
http://www.cityoffargo.com/CityInfo/Departments/Auditor/Citysalestax/
Barber, G. (1995). Aggregate Characteristics of Urban Travel. In S. Hanson, The Geography of Urban
Transportation (pp. 81-99). New York.
Black, A. (1995). The People Who Ride Transit. In Urban Mass Transportation Planning (pp. 283-306).
New York: McGraw-Hill.
Jaffe, E. (2012, November 13). We Shouldn't Be Surprised That Most Transit Referendums Won. Retrieved
from Citylab: http://www.citylab.com/politics/2012/11/we-shouldnt-be-surprised-most-
transit-referendums-won/3885/