Setting the scene - Nathalie Bolduc

1. A resilient and productive EU food
system supported by the Farm to
Fork Strategy
ClieNFarms Public Policy Workshop
8 July 2022
Nathalie Bolduc, Research Fellow, Agriculture & Food Policy Programme,
Iddri

2. ▪ Enduring concerns about the potential impacts of the Farm to Fork
Strategy
• Recently fuelled by the war in Ukraine and the “feed the world” narrative
▪ Four key messages
1. The current food security problems caused by the war in Ukraine
illuminate structural vulnerabilities within EU food systems.
2. The F2F targets are ambitious, but common and intensifying critiques
don’t look at the whole picture.
3. Agroecological farming under the Farm to Fork Strategy would also have
climate benefits.
4. The transition to more sustainable production is necessary to ensure the
productivity and resilience of the EU food system.
Introduction and key messages

3. 1. Weaknesses of
the EU food
system in light of
the war in Ukraine

4. N management: dependence…
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
EU net import dependence on
synthetic N fertilizers
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
1000
t
of
N
EU main trade partners for
synthetic N fertilizers imports

5. Actual N application vs required N application at constant NUE in view of the protection of surface water (DeVries, 2020)
… and overuse

6. Animal feed: a major use of
vegetal products in the EU…

7. … which is dependent on protein and
cereal imports

8. … in particular from Ukraine – revealing
fragilities of our food system
-
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cereals imports from Ukraine in EU
countries
Spain Netherlands Italy Portugal Germany Belgium
-
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
2.000.000
2017 2018 2019 2020
Oilseed imports from Ukraine in the EU (main
importing countries)
Netherlands France Spain Germany Poland Belgium Italy

9. … most notably highly dependent
livestock systems
8%
10%
11%
26%
36%
39%
43%
46%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Spain
Italy
Netherlands
Denmark
European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)
Germany (until 1990 former territory of the FRG)
Poland
France
Share of feeding stuff produced on the farm in total feed use in 2019
(Production value at basic price)

10. … associated with an overconsumption
of animal proteins

11. 2. The Farm to Fork
targets support
sustainable, resilient and
productive agriculture

12. ▪ A systemic approach to food system sustainability
▪ Supply & demand sides measures + specific
references to trade
▪ Ambitious targets, yet coherent with the need to
foster the resilience and sustainability of our FS
▪ Responses to the nitrogen and feed questions
• On N: Surplus –50%, Application –20%
• On feed: reducing red and processed meat
consumption
The F2F targets

13. A strategy coherent with most
food system scenarios

14. ▪ The F2F will put food
security at risk by reducing
production
▪ It will reduce farmer incomes
and destroy jobs – in
particular in the livestock
sector
▪ It will raise the cost of food
for poor consumers
The three main critiques of the
F2F

16. On food availability: the TYFA
scenario
▪ Ten Years For Agroecology : a
biotechnical modelling by 2050
▪ A set of assumptions aligned with the
F2F targets
• Fertility management and N cycle
closing
• Phase out of pesticide
• 10% landscape features
• Resilient livestock systems
• Healthy and balanced diets
▪ Results: changes in diets, feeding
strategies, and increases in NUE
outweigh production reduction!
Import dependency of the EU under
different scenarios compared to the
baseline. Source: INRAE and Iddri.
2010
BAU
TYFA x BAU
Agroécologie mo
TYFA supply

17. On jobs and farmer incomes
980.000
118.151
134.279
400.000
117.028
1.555.394
667.523
70.277
291.811
Breakdown of total employment in the EU food processing industry
Meat and meat products
Fish and seafood processing
Feed production
Dairy processing
Grain processing
Bakery and farineous products
other food products
Oilseed processing
Fresh fruits and vegetables

18. On jobs and farmer incomes

19. On jobs and farmer incomes
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Production
Climate mitigation
Biodiversity
On farm jobs
Jobs Industry
Ref
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Production
Climate mitigation
Biodiversity
On farm jobs
Jobs Industry
Just
transition
Ref
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Production
Climate mitigation
Biodiversity
On farm jobs
Jobs Industry
Just
transition
Ref
Job-focused
Danish
model

20. On the cost of food
Source: Rogissart, Bellassen and Foucherot, 2021

21. 3. Agroecology will
foster the
resilience and
productivity of the
EU food system

22. Average yields of French wheat from
1815 to 2018
https://www.academie-agriculture.fr/publications/encyclopedie/reperes/evolution-du-rendement-
moyen-annuel-du-ble-france-entiere-de-1815
The far past The recent past The current
hidden
rupture
Future
expectations
Potential risks to yields with
continued degradation of
ecosystems
Agroecology has the potential
to stabilize yields in the
medium term
The promised techno/land sparing
solution
The yield problem

23. Development maize yields
1961-2013
Wiesmeier et al, 2015

24. Dainese
et
al,
2019

25. Emission reductions
TYFA: -36% non CO2 direct emissions, –
40% all emissions
TYFA-GHG: –47% non CO2 direct
emissions, idem for all emissions
Without considering the GWP*

26. ▪ Four key messages
1. The current food security problems caused by the war in Ukraine illuminate structural
vulnerabilities within the EU food system.
2. The F2F targets are ambitious, but common and intensifying critiques don’t look at the
whole picture.
3. Agroecological farming under the Farm to Fork Strategy would have climate benefits.
4. The transition to more sustainable production is necessary to ensure the productivity
and resilience of the EU food system.
▪ Policy recommendations
• In the short-term, the EU should support developing countries to get access to food
and maintain robust social safety nets at home while avoiding measures with
potential negative long-term effects.
• In the medium- to long-term, the EU needs to transition towards sustainable
agriculture in order to make food systems resilient and productive far into the future.
Conclusions

27. IDDRI.ORG
CONTACT
Nathalie Bolduc (IDDRI)
Nathalie.bolduc@sciencespo.fr
www.iddri.org/tyfa
https://www.iddri.org/en/publications-and-events/study/agroecological-europe-2050-
multifunctional-agriculture-healthy-eating
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!