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IRAN
2016
The lifting of economic sanctions
has opened up increased
possibilities for trade and
investment.
The Governor of the Central Bank
discusses Basel III requirements,
fiscal policy, and economic
forecasts for the year ahead.
21 39 127
Falling oil prices, government
ambitions, and a diverse
offering are supporting the
rebirth of Iran’s tourism sector.
£60
ADDRESS No. 14, 13th. Gandhi Ave. Tehran. 1517753811.Iran
TEL+98(21)86757000 • FAX +98(21)88664423 • E-MAIL info@razi24.ir
Things
go better
with Razi
Insurance
WWW.RAZI24.COM
2016
41 Dr. Ali Ashraf Afkhami,
Chairman & Managing Director of
Bank of Industry and Mine
• Interview
44 Seyed Ahmad Taheri, CEO
of
Saman Bank • Interview
45 Back in the game • Focus:
International banking
46 Trade financing • B2B
47 Opening up • Forum
48 The future of growth • Review:
Capital markets
50 Securities regulation • B2B
51 Capital clarity • B2B
52 Investment banks • Forum
53 Field of opportunities • Vox
populi
54 A new dawn • Review:
Insurance
55 Dr. Abdolnaser Hemmati,
President & Head of High Council of
Insurance of Bimeh Markazi Iran
(Central Insurance of IR Iran)
• Interview
57 Dr. Younes Mazlumi, CEO of Razi
Insurance • Interview
58 Dynamic for life • B2B
6 Year in review • Iran
10 DIPLOMACY
10 The fruits of diplomacy • Review
11 HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, Former
Secretary General, Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) • Column
14 HE Dr. Hassan Rouhani, President
of the Islamic Republic of Iran
• Inside perspective
16 Johann N. Schneider-Ammann,
President of the Swiss Confederation
• Guest speaker
17 Jacob Zuma, President of the
Republic of South Africa • Guest
speaker
18 Echoes of the JCPOA • Focus:
JCPOA
20 Ministerial relations • Forum
21 ECONOMY
21 Oh how Iran • Review
22 Seyed Kamal Seyed Ali,
Chairman & CEO, Export Guarantee
Fund of Iran (EGFI) • Column
24 David Lipton, First Deputy
Managing Director, International
Monetary Fund (IMF) • Column
25 Dr. Mohsen Jalalpour, former
President of Iran Chamber of
Commerce, Industries, Mines &
Agriculture (ICCIMA) • Interview
26 Linking with the future • Focus:
Vision 2025
27 Dr. Farhad Zargari, Managing
Director & Chairman of Iran Foreign
Investments Company (IFIC)
• Interview
28 Dr. Ahmad Reza Nikkar, CEO of
Atiyeh Saba Investment Co.
• Interview
29 Chambers of commerce • B2B
30 Roadmap to reconnection: Iran-
Europe Cooperation after the JCPOA
• Roundtable
34 Treaty of trade • Focus: Chabahar
free zone
35 Why Iran? • Forum
36 FINANCE
36 A swift account • Review:
Banking
37 Behzad Golkar, CEO, Sina
Financial & Investment Holding
• Column
39 Dr. Valiollah Seif, Governor of the
Central Bank of Iran • Interview
40 HE Dr. Majid Ghassemi, CEO and
Vice Chairman of Bank Pasargad
• Interview
28
10
In partnership with:
Iran-Switzerland
Chamber of Commerce
German-Iranian Chamber of
Industry and Commerce(AHK Iran)
IRAN
‫ايران‬ ‫بازرگاني‬ ‫اتاق‬̶‫سوئيس‬
Iran – Switzerland Chamber of Commerce
Ministry of Industry, Mine
and Trade
THEBUSINESSYEAR4 IRAN 2016
69
80 85
59
59 ENERGY
59 Boon time • Review
60 Dr. Mohammad Kasaeian, Vice
Chairman & Managing Director,
Rosemond E.M.I.• Column
61 Dr. Ali Misagh, Managing Director
& Chairman, Tavana Energy
• Column
62 Piping hot • Focus: The pipeline
network
64 Team players • B2B
65 Staying ahead • B2B
66 Dr. Bahman Salehi, CEO of
SUNIR • Interview
67 Dr. Ali Hatami, Founder &
Managing Partner of Hatami &
Associates International Law Firm
• Interview
69 INDUSTRY
& MINING
69 Manufacturing tomorrow, today
• Review: Industry
71 Hossein Tanhaee, Vice Chairman,
GoldIran • Column
72 HE Mohammad Reza
Nematzadeh, Minister of Industry,
Mine and Trade • Interview
73 Dr. Mansour Moazami, Deputy
Minister of Industry, Mine and
Trade & Chairman of the Industrial
Development & Renovation
Organization of Iran (IDRO)
• Interview
75 Catalin Sfrija, General Manager
of Henkel Pakvash & President of
Henkel Iran • Interview
76 Dr. Bahram Sobhani, CEO &
Managing Director of Mobarakeh
Steel Company • Interview
78 On the road • Focus: Automotive
79 Industrial applications • B2B
80 Digging deeper • Review: Mining
81 A. Amini Kafiabad, CEO, Shahid
Bahonar Copper Industries Co.
• Column
82 Naser Taghizadeh, Managing
Director & Member of the Board of
Golgohar Mining & Industrial Co.
• Interview
83 Metallurgy • B2B
84 At the end of the tunnel
• Focus: Steel, copper, and
aluminum exports
85 TELECOMS
& IT
85 Making connections • Review
87 Kasra Mohaghegh, Managing
Director, Asia Telecommunications
• Column
88 Seyed Iman Miri, CEO &
Chairman of HiWEB • Interview
89 E-commerce • B2B
90 Thirsty for e-commerce • Focus:
The emergence of e-commerce
93 TRANSPORT
93 Royal roads • Review
94 Jean-Pierre Loubinoux, General
Director, International Union of
Railways (UIC) • Column
96 Dr. Mohsen Pourseyed Aghaei,
Vice Minister of Roads and Urban
Development & Chairman of
the Board and President of the
Railways of the Islamic Republic of
Iran (RAI) • Interview
97 An air battle for the Gulf •
Focus: The aviation industry
98 Air travel • B2B
99 Mehrdad Fakher, CEO of Tipax
Holding • Interview
100 Logistics • B2B
40
101
CONSTRUCTION
& REAL ESTATE
101 Can we build it? • Review
103 Ali Hossein Asadi, Chairman &
CEO, Diplomat Group • Column
106 Morteza Lotfi, Managing
Director & Board Member of Fars &
Khuzestan Cement Company (FKCC)
• Interview
107 Engineering • B2B
108 Dr. Gholamreza Ansari,
Chairman of the Iran Housing
Investment Company (Khanehsazi)
• Interview
109 Prick the bubble • Focus: Iran
housing market
110 Infrastructure • B2B
THEBUSINESSYEAR 5
MANY OF THE INTERVIEWS PUBLISHED HERE HAVE BEEN ABRIDGED.
THE ORIGINAL, FULL-LENGTH INTERVIEWS CAN BE READ AT
THEBUSINESSYEAR.COM
111
127
111 FOOD
& AGRICULTURE
111 A package deal • Review
112 Hassan Varshochi, Managing
Director, RANA Agro-Industry
Corporation • Column
113 Agrifood • B2B
114 Filling the basket • Focus:
Iranian food industry
114 Younes Zhaeleh, President and
Chairman of the Board, Shirin Asal
• Column
115 HEALTH
& EDUCATION
115 Surgery now open • Review:
Health
117 Dr. Seyed Amir Mohsen Ziaee,
President of Iranian Red Crescent
Society (IRCS)• Interview
118 Pharmaceuticals • B2B
119 Land of health • Focus: Health
tourism
120 Research • B2B
121 Educating for the 21st century
• Review: Education
123 Dr. Mahmoud Fotuhi-Firuzabad,
President of Sharif University of
Technology • Interview
124 Enrolled with the future
• Focus: Universities
125 Professional training • B2B
127 TOURISM
127 Qom & have a look • Review
128 Amir Kazem Noormohammadi,
Chairman, Dorsa Leather & Luxury
• Column
130 Seyed Hassan Mousavi, CEO,
Mega Pars Mall • Column
131 HE Dr. Masoud Soltanifar,
President of the Iranian Cultural
Heritage, Handicrafts & Tourism
Organization (ICHHTO) and Vice
President of the Islamic Republic of
Iran • Interview
132 Aliasghar Safari, CEO & Vice
Chairman of Tourism Bank
• Interview
133 Dr. Ebrahim Salami, Managing
Director of Tourism Holding of Social
Security Organization (HEGTA)
• Interview
134 Dr. Reza Samizadeh, CEO of
Iran Mall Commercial Company
(IMCC) • Interview
135 Tourism services • B2B
136 Holy future • Photo essay:
Mashhad
138 EXECUTIVE
GUIDE
138 Ground work • Review: Doing
business
139 When in Iran...
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72
THEBUSINESSYEAR6
Year in Review
IRAN 2016
Iran awoke to a world of opportunity in early 2016, the lifting of sanctions
allowing banks to reconnect to SWIFT, the country’s industrial matrix to
switch back into top gear, and oil to once again leave Iranian shores. The
challenge now is making a success of the brightened prospects.
6,6%
-1,9%
3,8%
4,3%
GDP PER CAPITA
USD4,877
INFLATION
9.5%
CURRENT ACCOUNT
3.83%of GDP
SOURCES: IMF, WORLD BANK
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP GROWTH (%)
SOURCE: WORLD BANK
-6,6%
0
THE JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
OFACTION(JCPOA),whichenteredintoef-
fect in January 2016, brought all nuclear-related
sanctions to an end, signaling huge reconcilia-
tions between Iran and the West and standing,
for many, as a superb example of the merits of
diplomacy. Success for parliamentary support-
ers of President Rouhani in February and April
in legislative elections only further highlighted
the popular support the government’s course
of rapprochement has had, as Iranian reform-
ists continue to dominate the domestic agenda.
To appreciate the impact sanctions had, it
is vital to take a quick look at the implications
they had on GDP. Iran’s economy was a sizable
USD587.2 billion back in 2012, a figure that fell
sharply to USD425.326 in 2014. GDP came in
at USD393.7 billion in 2015, down 7.44% YoY.
This still set Iran as the second-largest economy
in the MENA region, behind only Saudi Arabia.
According to IMF data from 2015, Iranian GDP
per capita on a PPP basis was USD17,346, plac-
ing it 68th in the world between Belarus and
Venezuela.
Sanctions arguably hit the oil sector hardest,
with oil and gas export revenues plummeting by
47% from USD118 billion in the 2011-12 fiscal
year to USD63 billion in 2012-13. Post-sanc-
tions, Iran has indicated it is ready to boost
production back to former levels of around 4
million bpd and is looking to attract foreign in-
vestment to 18 E&P blocks and 50 oil and gas
projects to be completed before 2020. It would
be wrong to assume the Iranian economy is
based on oil alone, however. Iran differs from
many of its regional peers in that its economy
is roundly diverse, with services, agriculture,
manufacturing, and mining all accounting for
significant portions of the country’s economic
output.
On the fiscal front, Iran’s deficit grew from
1.2% of GDP in 2014 to 2.7% in 2015, with the
current account surplus narrowing to just 0.6%
of GDP in 2015 from 3.8% in 2014 due in large
part to declining oil prices. The effects of lower
oil prices, however, were somewhat mitigated in
Iran due to structural reforms brought in to less-
en the effects of lower oil revenues during the
sanctions period. Indeed, Iran’s strong regula-
tory environment helped to keep the economy
above water in rough seas, with GDP growing
0.5% in 2015 after contraction in previous years.
The Central Bank of Iran is also credited, thanks
to its steadfastness in monetary policy, with
reining in runaway inflation in 2015. The infla-
tion rate began the year at 12.6%, down from
a peak of 45.1% in October 2012. “The Central
Bank managed to control the inflation rate by
supporting monetary discipline and stabilizing
the foreign exchange market,” Governor Dr.
Valiollah Seif told TBY.
But nobody could be happier about the re-
moval of sanctions than Iran’s exporters. Ex-
ports measured just 18.7% of GDP in 2015, one
of the lowest rates worldwide. The news that,
since JCPOA, trade between the EU and Iran has
shot up by 43% was widely received as a sign of
things to come.
Indeed, the EU has been one of Iran’s stron-
gest backers in recent months, with EU High
Commissioner Federica Mogherini meeting
with Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif in
Tehran in April to discuss potential areas for
cooperation. Mogherini also reiterated the EU’s
support for Iran’s bid to join the WTO. “We used
to be Iran’s main trading partner and we are
determined to take that position again,” said
Mogherini, who also spoke of the significance
of Iranian oil and gas in Europe’s energy mix. A
few tensions remain, however, including a per-
ceived lack of enthusiasm from European banks
to begin lending again in Iran. Ségolène Royal,
French Minister of Ecology, expressed her frus-
tration after a visit to the country with French
environmental and renewable energy firms
that Iran is still unable to access the financing
it requires to complete projects in line with the
Paris Climate Agreement, to which the country
is a signatory. The reluctance could stem from a
USD8.9 billion fine levied on BNP Paribas by the
US for doing business with Iran.
Arguably the largest development since the
lifting of sanctions, however, was a US Treasury
announcement granting licenses to Boeing and
Airbus to sell passenger aircraft to Iran, the larg-
est ever deal between the two countries since
the Islamic Revolution.
Challenges for the government going forward
include navigating tense political developments
in the region and convincing Iran’s hardline
political factions that the country, and its econ-
omy, are on the right course. Investors will cer-
tainly be watching with interest as Iran carves a
new path for itself on the global stage. ✖
THEBUSINESSYEAR 7
SOURCES: GLOBAL ENERGY OBSERVATORY, ORGANIZA-
TION FOR INVESTMENT ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL
ASSISTANCE OF IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
UAE
QATAR
OMAN
MASHHAD
QOM
IMAM
KHOMENI
AMIRABAD
SAUDI ARABIA
IRAQ
IRAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
RUSSIA
ARMENIA
TURKEY
KUWAIT
TEHRAN
TABRIZ
ARAK
KERMANSHAH
500 KM
CITY PORT AIRPORT
HYDRO
POWER
OIL
REFINERY
GAS
POWER
ECONOMIC
FREE ZONE
NUCLEAR
PLANT
ABADAN
SHIRAZ
KERMAN
KANGAN
BUSHEHR
BANDAR ABBAS
CHABAHAR
QESHM
ISFAHAN
Persian New Year,
known as Nowruz,
is celebrated on the
vernal equinox and
marks the first day
of Spring.
After petrol
products,
iron ore is
the country’s
largest export
Iran has
10% of the
world’s proven
petroleum
reserves
Some 60%
of Iranian
university
students are
female.
The election of
Hassan Rouhani
was a large factor
in beginning the
country’s nuclear
negotiations with
the West.
UZBEKISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
KISH
BAHRAIN
CASPIAN
SEA
THEBUSINESSYEAR8 IRAN 2016
THE BUSINESS YEAR IN IRAN
T I M E L I N EJan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
JAN 2016
The International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) verifies that Iran
meets all conditions of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA), signed on July 15, 2015.
IAEA’s report clears the way for the
lifting of nuclear-related economic
sanctions imposed on the Islamic
Republic over the last decade.
JAN 2016
In his first visit to Europe since his
election in 2013, President Hassan
Rouhani meets with Italy’s Prime
Minister Matteo Renzi, French
President François Hollande, and
Pope Francis. Accompanied by a
120-strong business delegation, deals
worth up to USD18.4 billion are signed
during the first state visit in 16 years to
enhance bilateral cooperation between
Europe and Iran.
APR 2016
The Joint Commission of the P5+1
countries holds its first meeting
after the lifting of sanctions. Vienna
hosts the talks to supervise the
implementation of the agreement.
The meeting comes six days after
EU High Representative and Vice
President Federica Mogherini and six
Commissioners travelled to Tehran to
reinvigorate bilateral relations.
MAR 2016
Iranians celebrate the arrival of spring, which marks the beginning of the Persian
New Year, Nowruz. Addressing the nation, President Rouhani announces that Iran
seeks to achieve 5% economic growth during the new calendar year of 1395 (2016)
FEB 2016
The alliance between President
Rouhani’s Moderation and
Development Party and the
reformists win a majority of seats
in the two-round parliamentary
elections. The List of Hope obtains 55
seats in the Assembly of Experts and
119 seats in the Majlis, following the
second ballot held on April 29, 2016
to complete 68 of the new 290-seat
parliament.
THEBUSINESSYEAR 9Year in Review
With sanctions removed, Iran stands ready to be embraced once more by the entire
international business community.
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
SEP 2016
The Iranian Parliament gives the
green light for the government to
implement new oil contracts called
Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC). The
new model gives foreign companies a
stake in the fields and hopes to attract
USD70 billion of investment to reach a
daily production of 4.8 million barrels
in 2021.
AUG 2016
President Hassan Rouhani states that
Iran’s economic growth hit 4.4%
in the first quarter of the Iranian
calendar year, referring to the effects
of the JCPOA. Two months prior, the
Central Bank of Iran announced that
the year-to-date inflation rate fell to
single digits in 9.5%.
SEP 2016
The US Treasury's Office of Foreign
Assets Control (OFAC) grants a
license to Airbus to sell the first 17
airplanes involved in landmark deal
with Iran. In January, Iran Air signed
agreements to buy 118 planes from
Airbus, estimated to be worth USD25
billion.
MAY 2016
Iran, India and Afghanistan sign
a historic trilateral agreement to
develop the port of Chabahar. The
three-nation pact aims to build a
transport-and-trade corridor through
Afghanistan that could help halve
the time and cost of doing business
with CIS and Europe. India will spend
USD500 million to develop the port
in southeastern Iran to become a
regional trade hub.
MAY 2016
Iran's crude exports surge to 2.6 million bpd in May, tripling the pace from
November 2015. The Minister of Petroleum, Dr. Bijan Zanganeh, claims the country's oil
output surpassed 3.8 million barrels per day, accounting for the largest gain from any
OPEC country since the end of 2015.
R E V I E W
Diplomacy
THEBUSINESSYEAR10
The implementation of the
JCPOA constitutes a new
chapter in the relationship
between Iran and Europe.
1816
TBY talks to Johann N.
Schneider-Ammann, President
of the Swiss Confederation.
TBY talks to Jacob Zuma,
President of the Republic of
South Africa.
17
S
Iran is entering the post-sanctions era
with a spring in its step, yet it was not an
easy political ride. The country’s moderate
approach of late, however, could be a sign
of stronger multilateralism to come.
ince January 16,
when the Joint
Comprehensive
Plan of Action
(JCPOA) brought all nucle-
ar-related sanctions to an
end, things have been mov-
ing rapidly in the direction of
reconciliation between Iran
and the West. Domestical-
ly, reformists have been on
the offensive: parliamentary
elections in February and
April witnessed major gains
for the reform-minded fac-
tion that supports President
Hassan Rouhani in his long-
term endeavor to mend fenc-
es with the West through,
among other things, much
deeper economic ties. Inter-
nationally, the government
appears to be having one
diplomatic success after an-
other.
In April, EU High Commis-
sioner Federica Mogherini
met with Foreign Minister
Mohammad Zarif in Tehran
to discuss future areas of
“potential engagement and
cooperation” in economic
relations, the environment,
energy and civil nuclear co-
operation, humanitarian aid,
Since the JCPOA went into effect, trade between Iran and the EU is up
by 43%, European banks are working with Iranian counterparts for the
first time in years, and sales of Iranian oil have nearly reached their pre-
sanctions rate of 4 million bpd; but challenges remain before Iran can take
its place in the sun.
THE FRUITS
OF DIPLOMACY
Image: IRAN DAILY
transport, science, and cul-
ture. Firstly, she reiterated
the EU’s support for Iran’s
bid to join the World Trade
Organization (WTO). “We
used to be Iran’s main trad-
ing partner and we are deter-
mined to take that position
again,” said Mogherini. Sec-
ondly, she stressed the im-
portance of making Iranian
oil and gas a stronger compo-
nent of Europe’s energy mix.
This will not only help diver-
sify and stabilize Europe’s
energy security, she said,
but offer crucial opportuni-
ties for European technology
and expertise to facilitate the
development of the Iranian
market.
These diplomatic success-
es continued in July, when
Mogherini met with Iranian
Vice President Ali Akbar Sale-
hi in Brussels to commemo-
rate the one-year anniversary
of the historic JCPOA agree-
ment and reiterate the EU’s
commitment to hastening
the progress and its (expect-
ed) benefits. Dismayed that
many European banks were
still refusing to do business
with Iran for fear of backlash
THEBUSINESSYEAR 11Diplomacy
*Readthefullinterviewatthebusinessyear.com
from the US Treasury, Mogherini sought to re-
assure her Iranian counterpart—and Europe-
an financial institutions—that they could and
should engage with Iran. Most importantly,
she announced the opening of a permanent
EU delegation in Tehran.
A month later, this success was buoyed by
the multi-city visit to Iran of Ségolène Royal,
French Minister of Ecology, who promised
strong French cooperation in combatting cli-
mate change in Iran—a problem that has be-
gun to seriously affect much of the country.
Traveling with senior business figures from
French environmental and renewable ener-
gy firms, Royal promised her Iranian coun-
terparts that France would work closely with
them to resolve issues related to water short-
age, pollution, and energy efficiency in Iran.
She also addressed the failure of major French
(and European) banks to start lending in Iran
since the JCPOA took effect. “We will find a
solution. Either we will work with non-French
banks... or we will mobilize the public invest-
ment bank,” she mused. “Or why not the Eu-
ropean Investment Bank?” Given the Paris
Climate Agreement’s calls for investment in
green technology, Royal said it was “com-
pletely contradictory” that Iran, a signatory of
the landmark agreement, now cannot access
the capital needed to do so. Though the US
government has tried to reassure French (and
other) banks they will not face prosecution for
working with Iran, many have been wary ever
since BNP Paribas was fined USD8.9 billion in
2009 by the US Treasury for doing just that.
Nonetheless, the crowning achievements
of Iranian diplomacy seem to have come in
September on the sidelines of the UN Gener-
al Assembly. The first day President Rouhani
was in New York, the US Treasury announced
that it was finally granting licenses to Boeing
and Airbus to sell passenger aircraft to Iran,
the single largest trade agreement between
the two countries since the creation of the
Islamic Republic. A day later, Iranian Foreign
Minister Zarif held the first ministerial talks
with a Canadian counterpart, Foreign Minis-
ter Stephane Dion, since Ottawa severed dip-
lomatic ties with Tehran in 2012. This led to
the release from prison of Canadian-Iranian
academic Homa Hoodfar, in the custody of
the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) since Feb-
ruary 2016.
It was also during Rouhani’s visit to New
York that High Commissioner Mogherini re-
iterated the EU’s commitment to “go the ex-
tra mile [to] continue working for the Iranian
people.” With great enthusiasm, she celebrat-
ed how “political will, determination, and
commitment” had proven that “even the most
difficult political issues can be solved through
dialog and diplomacy.” Since the JCPOA went
HE ABDALLA S. EL-BADRI
Former Secretary General, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC)
Since the JCPOA agreement, Iran has increased
its production and exports of oil. How important
are Iran’s supplies to the global oil market?
Iran’s full return to the oil market is a welcome
one. Iran is an important country, a founding mem-
ber of OPEC, and a key participant in the global oil
market. It has vast hydrocarbons potential, ex-
cellent manpower, and its production and exports
remain integral to the future stability of the oil
market. The world will need more oil in the future.
Oil demand is expected to be close to 110mbpd by
2040—an increase of around 17mbpd from current
demand—and Iran will undoubtedly play an im-
portant role in helping ensure this demand is met.
How can cooperation between multinationals
and local companies help develop projects
within Iran?
With the third-largest oil reserves and the
second-largest proven gas reserves in the world,
Iran has tremendous opportunities for coopera-
tion between its companies and multinationals.
There is clearly significant interest from a wide
range of international companies. How this
evolves is a matter for the Iranian government
and the Oil Ministry, but its long-term develop-
ment will undoubtedly depend on greater coop-
eration with international oil companies.*
THEBUSINESSYEAR12 IRAN 2016
into effect, trade between Iran and the EU is
up by 43%, European banks are working with
Iranian counterparts for the first time in years,
and sales of Iranian oil have nearly reached
their pre-sanctions rate of 4 million barrels
per day. As in much of the preceding year,
Rouhani’s deft diplomatic achievements were
celebrated in capitals throughout the Western
world. So much so that his most powerful op-
ponents seem no longer to be in Washington
or Tel Aviv, but in Tehran.
Though referred to by many as the “Dip-
lomat Sheikh” for his masterly negotiating
skills, President Rouhani has also come un-
der scrutiny in certain quarters for having
too conciliatory an approach to the US. To be
sure, the parliamentary elections in February
were an unofficial referendum of sorts on the
pace and progress of Iran’s diplomatic volte-
face before the world. And though moderate
and reform-minded candidates who back the
president’s diplomatic policies received the
single largest block of votes in both the pre-
liminary and run-off elections (143 seats to
the hardliners’ 86 of a total 290), certain lead-
ing government figures openly campaigned
against Rouhani and his moderates on the
grounds that their rapprochement with the
West was undermining fundamental aspects
of the Islamic Republic.
In a speech in the holy city of Mashhad in
March, Ayatollah Khamenei told a crowd to
reject the spurious “two-track” idea proffered
by American policymakers that Iran must ei-
ther “constantly remain under US pressures
and problems associated with these pres-
sures” or “come to terms with the US” and, in
so doing, back down from certain “positions,
principles, and red lines.” The domino effect
of too much rapprochement with the US, he
warned, would lead to a crisis of legitimacy
for the Islamic Republic itself. “If we step back
in the face of the US, the enemy will move for-
ward step by step and we will reach a point
where the Islamic Republic of Iran will be
devoid of content,” he forewarned. “Only its
appearance will survive.”
Negotiations leading up to the
lifting of sanctions occured at the
top level
As Iran enters 2017, it does so on a soberly optimistic footing.
Relations with the West are the best they have been in 37 years,
trade with Europe is up by nearly 50%; and relations with the
Russian Federation, the Central Asian republics, Armenia, and
Oman could scarcely be better.
Image: IRAN DAILY
THEBUSINESSYEAR 13Diplomacy
As if to bring these thoughts to life, the IRGC
fired off several ballistic missiles on March 8
in a military drill in wanton disregard of UN
Security Council resolutions to the contrary.
The message was clear: whatever Rouhani’s
popularity in Brussels and Washington—and
no matter his parliamentary victories in Feb-
ruary—he would still have to contend with
forces in the government wary of moving too
quickly. Thus the real question that arises in
2016 is whether or not the JCPOA will be a
“one-off” engagement with the West.
To be fair, Khamenei repeated Ségolène
Royal’s complaint that the US was dragging
its feet in lifting banking restrictions and re-
turning pre-1979 Iranian assets. But for the
Americans’ bad cop, the EU’s good cop has
ever been there: asked in New York if the
IRGC’s firing of ballistic missiles would have
any effect on reconciliation between EU and
Iran, Mogherini said: “There are other politi-
cal considerations I can make, but not related
to JCPOA.”
Despite its diplomatic triumphs in the
West, Iran has had a harder time convincing
its neighbors of its prerogatives. Its relation-
ship with Turkey has been repeatedly strained
by both countries’ sharply opposing positions
on the Syrian civil war, most recently by Teh-
ran’s critical support for Baghdad’s plans to
retake Mosul with largely Shia and Kurdish
militias. Meanwhile, Iran’s ongoing rivalry
with Saudi Arabia has only been exacerbated
by unresolved tensions surrounding to the
Hajj stampede of 2015 in which at least 464
Iranians lost their lives, to say nothing of the
countries’ ongoing disputes in Syria, Yemen,
and Lebanon.
Yet there have been regional successes.
First is the flurry of trade deals Iran passed
with Oman in 2016. A stalwart ally in helping
get JCPOA passed—even serving as a secret
conduit between US and Iranian authori-
ties—Oman is now reaping the benefits of its
loyal friendship through heavy Iranian invest-
ment there. This friendship will also tighten
the Central Asian-Iranian-Omani trade nexus
that Tehran has been pushing for under the
Ashgabat Agreement since 2011, which hopes
to greatly expand infrastructure and trade
between the original four signatories, Iran,
Oman, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and
two newcomers, India and Kazakhstan.
As Iran enters 2017, it does so on a sober-
ly optimistic footing. Relations with the West
are the best they have been in 37 years; trade
with Europe is up by nearly 50%, and rela-
tions with the Russian Federation, the Central
Asian republics, Armenia, and Oman could
scarcely be better. Of the remaining threats
to the country’s complete normalization with
the world, two should come as no surprise.
Namely, ongoing instability in the Middle
East, and Iran’s role therein; and the threat
of renewed American sanctions. Yet as a sage
once said, all politics is local. Thus the third
and possibly biggest impediment to bringing
Iran back into the international fold. Rouhani
will have to be many things to many people in
the coming year. ✖
Iranian and French leaders at a
political, cultural, and economic
agreements signing ceremony
Image: IRAN DAILY
THEBUSINESSYEAR14 IRAN 2016
I N S I D E P E R S P E C T I V E
Fifteen years have passed since the painful
terrorist attack in New York, a disaster whose
human dimensions moved the entire world.
On that day, no one imagined that this occur-
rence would lead to larger disasters, resulting
in a devastating war in the Middle East and the
spread of insecurity across the globe. This war
has sown the seeds of borderless terrorism ev-
erywhere on earth. Today, the most pressing
question as to why we are facing such a situa-
tion should be on the agenda of international
forums. We need to find out which approach-
es, policies, and erroneous actions paved the
way for the spread of insecurity throughout
the world. And what would be the picture the
world 15 years from now.
Security has become a global problem at a
time when major powers are mainly focusing
on advancing different methods of repression
and military intervention under the pretext of
creating a secure environment for their citi-
zens. The genesis of borderless violent extrem-
ism and terrorism could be attributed to the
security strategies developed by major powers
in the past 15 years. The main lesson to learn
from the analysis of this trend is that security
in one region at the cost of insecurity in others
would not only be impossible but it could also
lead to more insecurity everywhere.
The terrorists even went as far as claiming
to have established States in the Levant, Iraq,
and Libya. More unfortunately, they hide their
nefarious intents behind religious literature,
thus turning a compassionate religion into an
instrument of violence and terror by spreading
extremist and Takfiri propaganda.
The century that began with terror and vi-
olence in New York should not continue with
hostile competitions and expanding conflicts
in the Middle East.
Today in fact, the discourse of hatred and
violence in the Middle East and North Africa is
spreading with an astonishing speed, and this
region is stuck in a web of the most savage and
HE Dr. Hassan Rouhani was
born on the November 12,
1948 in Sorkhe (Semnan
province, Iran). He is a
lawyer and a Muslim cleric.
Prior to his election as
President of the Islamic
Republic of Iran in August
2013, Dr. Rouhani was
the Representative of
the Supreme Leader to
the Supreme National
Security Council and a
Member of the Assembly
of Experts, being the head
of the Political and Social
Committee. He holds a
PhD in constitutional law
from Glasgow Caledonian
University (UK) and has
published around 100 books
and scientific papers.
BIO
HE Dr. Hassan Rouhani, President of the
Islamic Republic of Iran, on his hope for peace
in the Middle East and optimism for the full
implementation of JCPOA.
working on
PRINCIPLE
destructive policies. Millions of Syrians are
stranded in deserts and high seas, and hun-
dreds of thousands of them are subjected to
violent deaths. Iraqis of every ethnic group are
concerned about their territorial integrity and
the future of their homeland. The defenseless
people of Yemen are subjected to daily aerial
bombardment, and Afghanistan, following de-
cades of occupation and atrocity, is yet to find
comfort from suffering, violence, and terror.
The oppressed Palestinians are still afflicted by
a web of apartheid policies and atrocities set
by the usurping Zionist regime.
Undoubtedly, if the region is to reverse the
current dangerous trend into one towards
development and stability, certain countries
must stop bombing their neighbors, and aban-
don supporting Takfiri terrorist groups, and,
while accepting responsibility, try to compen-
sate for past mistakes. If the Saudi government
is serious about its vision for development and
regional security, it must cease and desist from
divisive policies, spread of hate ideology and
trampling upon the rights of neighbours, ac-
cept its responsibility for the protection of the
lives and dignity of pilgrims, and construct its
relations with the nations in the region on the
basis of mutual respect and accountability.
The future of our region rests on dealing
with fundamental challenges such as securi-
ty crises, due to the inefficiency and the lack
of legitimacy of governments. We will not be
able to combat criminal and terrorist networks
without genuine democracy and without a real
participatory approach at the national and
transnational levels.
Iran's principled approach calls for con-
structive partnership with our neighbors with
a view to establishing an enduring order based
on shared security and efforts aimed at en-
hancing the development of the countries in
the region and mutually beneficial economic
cooperation. To uproot violence in the region,
there is no choice but to focus on promoting
THEBUSINESSYEAR 15Diplomacy
democracy, citizenship rights, and economic
development.
Iran opposes any kind of sectarianism and
any attempt to promote religious gaps. The
Muslim people, be they Shias or Sunnis, have
lived together for centuries in harmony and
mutual respect, and will continue to do so.
Attempts to turn religious dissimilarities into
tense confrontations are rooted in vested in-
terests of certain countries, which try to hide
their quest for power covered in religious slo-
gans. Iran considers it imperative to preserve
the territorial integrity of states, keep nation-
al borders intact, enhance peoples' right to
self-determination, and uphold the principle
of refraining from the threat or use of force.
We also reiterate the need to use diplomacy
for conflict resolution.
Despite today's difficulties, I have hope in
tomorrow. I have no doubt that we can prevail
through prudence and wisdom. The experi-
ence acquired through dialogue between Iran
and the group of 5+1 and the fruition of the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
are indicative of the success that we could
achieve through moderation, constructive
interaction and the promotion of dialogue; a
policy that brought a long, complicated, and
unnecessary crisis to an end by adopting a
win-win approach. This deal confirmed the
peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program
through devising confidence-building mecha-
nisms, closing the so-called "possible military
dimension" file and reinstating Iran's right
to develop a peaceful nuclear program. This
deal also put an end to unfounded concerns
and led to the removal of the brutal sanctions
against Iran.
Beyond the nuclear file, however, the JCPOA
contains important lessons for resolving com-
plicated international problems. This deal
is not only a political agreement; it also rep-
resents a creative approach and method for
constructive interaction with a view to peace-
fully resolving crises and challenges. To learn
lessons from the JCPOA and put them towards
improving international relations, we should
never forget that pressures, sanctions and il-
legal threats, which sought to fully dismantle
Iran’s enrichment program, were all defeated.
And today, the UN Security Council and the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
have formally accepted Iran's peaceful nucle-
ar program.
The US is fully aware that JCPOA constitutes
a recognized multilateral agreement, and any
failure on the part of the US in implementing it
would constitute an international wrongful act
and would be objected to by the international
community. Any failure in implementing the
JCPOA will further erode the credibility of the
US in the world. The lack of compliance with
the JCPOA on the part of the US in the past sev-
eral months represents a flawed approach that
should be rectified forthwith. Unfortunately,
such illegal actions are not unprecedented: the
latest case in point is the US Supreme Court
ruling to seize billions of dollars of the Iranian
people's assets. This experience demonstrated
that the Zionist pressure groups could go as far
as having US Congress pass indefensible leg-
islations forcing the highest American judicial
institution to violate pre-emptory norms of in-
ternational law.
With God's help, the Iranian people's en-
durance and the increasing participation of
Iran's international partners from different re-
gions, only eight months after the removal of
the cruel nuclear-related sanctions, the econ-
omy of Iran, as the most secure and most prof-
itable investment destination in the region, is
showing clear improvement. Iran's economic
growth rate surpassed 4% in spring 2016, the
inflation rate dropped to single digits, and Iran
has come close to pre-sanction level of oil pro-
duction and export. All in all, we are witness-
ing more development in the economic, scien-
tific and technological fields in Iran.
Iran is one of the rare oil-producing coun-
tries that could offset the shocking impact of
the sharp slide in oil price in 2014. We are in-
tent on strengthening economic stability and
consistency, thus encouraging more invest-
ment, through economic reforms and fiscal
and financial discipline, while preserving our
low-inflation achievement. The economic
growth is to increase to around 5% by the end
of 2016. Currently, based on all domestic and
international prediction, Iran is enjoying one
the highest growth rates among the oil-pro-
ducing countries.
Despite all hardships, I deeply believe that
moderation will prevail over extremism, peace
will triumph over violence, enlightenment will
overcome ignorance, and finally justice will
rise above injustice. What is important is that
belief, hope and efforts are towards realizing
peace and justice and there is no doubt that
the Almighty will assist all those who endeavor
towards peace, justice and moderation. ✖
Iran is one of the rare oil-producing countries that could offset
the shocking impact of the sharp slide in oil price in 2014. We are
intent on strengthening economic stability and consistency, thus
encouraging more investment, through economic reforms and
fiscal and financial discipline, while preserving our low-inflation
achievement.
THEBUSINESSYEAR16 IRAN 2016
G U E S T S P E A K E R
What is your assessment on
the historic relationship be-
tween Switzerland and Iran?
Switzerland has longstand-
ing, friendly relations with
Iran based on dialog on all
matters of common con-
cern and mutual respect.
The existing friendship trea-
ty between our countries
dates back to more than 140
years and is a telling sign of
the quality of our ties. Even
during difficult times, Swit-
zerland was always present in
Iran. Our policy of dialog, the
culture of listening, respect,
and searching for common
ground has created a rela-
tion of continuity and trust
between our countries. Swit-
zerland’s protecting power
mandate for the US in Iran,
which we have fulfilled since
1980, is equally based on this
culture. In this same spirit,
Switzerland has always sup-
ported a diplomatic solution
regarding Iran’s nuclear pro-
gram, both in substance and
by hosting negotiations. We
are proud that the adoption
of the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA) took
place in Geneva and the gen-
eral framework of the current
agreement was concluded
on April 2, 2015 in Lausanne.
On a personal level, I had the
honor and pleasure to experi-
ence and reaffirm this bond
several times myself in meet-
ings with representatives of
Johann N. Schneider-
Ammann has been the
President of the Swiss
Confederation since
January 2016. Prior to
assuming the presidential
office, he was the Vice-
President of Switzerland
from January 2015 to
December 2015. Before
taking over as Head of the
Federal Department of
Economic Affairs, Education
and Research (EAER) on
November 2010, Schneider-
Ammann was a member
of the National Council
of the Free Democratic
Party (FDP) for 11 years.
He was born in 1952 and
has a degree in electrical
engineering from the ETH
Zurich. Before becoming
member of the Federal
Council, he was President
and Delegate of Ammann
Group.
BIO
TBY talks to Johann N. Schneider-Ammann, President of the Swiss
Confederation, on the two countries’ historic relationship, integrating
Iran into the global financial network, and supporting regional stability.
partners IN TIME
the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In February 2016, I was the
first-ever Swiss President to
visit Tehran, where I was wel-
comed with the famous Ira-
nian hospitality and warmth
by my counterpart, President
Hassan Rouhani, as well as by
the Supreme Leader, Seyyed
Ali Khamenei.
Both countries have expressed
willingness to boost cooper-
ation. What are the potential
areas of cooperation between
Switzerland and Iran in this
new era for the country?
Together with President Rou-
hani, we adopted a compre-
hensive road map covering
12 areas of cooperation. One
important part of it deals with
political consultations, in-
cluding on regional security.
We have also resumed our
dialog on human rights issues
and started consultations on
legal and judicial matters,
with a first round in Swit-
zerland. Other areas include
tourism, transportation, ag-
riculture, and completing
economic and financial dia-
log. In the field of science, re-
search, and technology, I see
high potential, as both of our
countries have highly qual-
ified people and host some
renowned scientific institu-
tions. Fostering direct coop-
eration between universities
and scientific institutions
proves to be a promising way
forward. The activities since
the conclusion of this coop-
eration program on February
27, 2016 have been impres-
sive; we have welcomed sev-
eral high-level delegations
from different ministries and
institutions in Switzerland,
and many Swiss business-
people and government rep-
resentatives have visited Iran
since then.
Seven months after the signing
of the JCPOA, big European
banks remain reluctant to han-
dle Iranian payments. How can
Switzerland help Iran return to
the international banking sys-
tem?
Switzerland welcomes the
reintegration of Iran into the
global financial system after
the implementation of the
JCPOA. As part of the road-
map to strengthen bilateral
relations, it has thus estab-
lished a financial dialog with
Iran. Within the scope of this
dialog, Switzerland supports
Iran in its efforts to imple-
ment international stan-
dards, such as in the area of
anti-money laundering and
banking regulation, and en-
gages on challenges remain-
ing for payments, transac-
tions, and trade financing in
Iran.
What is your opinion on the
stabilizing role Iran can play
in the Middle East and its bilat-
eral relations with neighboring
countries?
Iran is a key player in the re-
gion. A rapprochement be-
tween Tehran and Riyadh
would obviously help sta-
bilize the region. In view of
the good relations that Swit-
zerland maintains with both
countries, we are committed
to supporting this process.
Iran has already demonstrat-
ed its positive influence in the
region by promoting the need
for a trilateral humanitarian
dialog format with Syria and
Switzerland. So far, several
rounds have been held with
the objective of improving
humanitarian assistance for
all Syrians in need. This dia-
log is complementary to and
reinforces ongoing dialogs by
other humanitarian actors on
the ground. ✖
THEBUSINESSYEAR 17Diplomacy
G U E S T S P E A K E R
How would you assess your
visit to Iran and meeting with
President Hassan Rouhani in
April 2016?
The purpose and strategic
objective of the visit I under-
took from April 23-25 to the
Islamic Republic of Iran was
aimed at elevating bilater-
al political, economic, and
person-to-person relations
between the two countries
into a substantive strategic
partnership that will bene-
fit both countries and their
peoples. To this end, my visit
reaffirmed the South African
government’s unwavering
support for the people and
government of Iran as they
enter the post-sanctions pe-
riod. We agreed with Presi-
dent Rouhani that we need to
translate the strong relations
that exist between our coun-
tries into tangible projects,
particularly in trade, invest-
ment, and economic sectors.
Indeed, during that visit, we
signed eight MoUs ranging
from energy to investment to
Jacob Zuma became an
active member of the
African National Congress
(ANC) in the 1950s. He
was arrested in 1963 and
sentenced to 10 years
imprisonment on Robben
Island. In 1973, he
continued his activities in
exile in southern African
countries. In 1999, Zuma
was appointed Deputy
President of the Republic
and assisted former
President Nelson Mandela
as Burundi peace mediator.
He was inaugurated as
President of the Republic for
his first term in 2009 and
assumed his second term
in office in 2014. His priority
during this second term is to
mobilize society behind the
2030 Vision outlined in the
National Development Plan,
the country’s socioeconomic
development blueprint.
BIO
TBY talks to Jacob
Zuma, President
of the Republic of
South Africa, on his
recent visit to Tehran,
boosting economic
growth, and Iran’s role
as a trade partner for
African countries.
SOUTH
by MIDDLE EAST
insurance that will serve as a
catalyst to fast track econom-
ic and trade relations. We
also agreed to set up a special
high-level mechanism to re-
alize this goal.
Both sides have expressed
their willingness to boost bilat-
eral ties. What are the possible
main areas of cooperation be-
tween South Africa and Iran?
There are vast areas wherein
we could potentially coop-
erate, but for the immedi-
ate future we have agreed to
work together to create an
institutional framework that
will allow for the free move-
ment of goods and services
between our countries, par-
ticularly in financial services,
mining, energy, and tourism.
A number of business proj-
ects in various sectors are
also in the pipeline. Since
my visit, a number of de-
partments, including trade
and industry as well as the
private sector, from both
South Africa and Iran have
begun negotiations in hopes
of laying a solid foundation
for trade. Some of those ne-
gotiations have reached their
final stages, and companies
from both sides are ready to
conclude deals. All these are
part of a long-term strategic
plan to strengthen bilateral
economic relations. We have
also emphasized the need to
cooperate at the multilateral
level, especially on issues of
mutual interest. South Africa
and Iran share the view that
there is a need to transform
global institutions, to make
them more equitable, just,
people centered, and devel-
opment oriented. Following
the nuclear agreement, we
expect Iran to play a leading
role in the region, especially
in contributing positively to
finding lasting solutions to
regional challenges.
How will this new relationship
between South Africa and Iran
boost economic growth in both
countries?
The relationship between
South Africa and Iran is not
new. Iran was South Africa’s
top trading partner in the re-
gion before the imposition of
unilateral sanctions. As coun-
tries that are almost at the
same developmental stage,
the economic relations that
we seek to re-establish with
Iran are based on equitable
trade. Those relations will be
based on state-to-state co-
operation, business-to-busi-
ness engagements, and
people-to-people relations.
During my visit, we identified
a number of sectors where
there are huge opportuni-
ties, including oil, gas, pet-
rochemical products, min-
ing services and technology,
chemicals, pharmaceuticals,
medical equipment, and
heavy industry, as well the ex-
port of agricultural products
such as citrus fruit and red
meat to Iran by South Africa.
What is the importance of Iran
as a trade partner for African
countries?
Iran is a highly diversified
and sophisticated energy
giant with a great record in
broad-based development.
We are pleased that Iran is
working on an Africa strate-
gy to increase its profile and
involvement on the conti-
nent and we look forward to
a strong Africa-Iran develop-
ment partnership emerging
in the near future. Of course,
we agree with Iranians that
South Africa is the ideal stra-
tegic entry point for Iran to
access the African market.
South Africa is also of the
view that Iran is an avenue for
South Africa’s export prod-
ucts into the Middle East.
This is especially important
given South Africa’s econom-
ic diversification strategy, as
we confront the challenges
posed by the international
economic climate. ✖
THEBUSINESSYEAR18 IRAN 2016
F O C U S J C P O A
IRAN WAS A HUGE USD42 BILLION
trading partner of the EU prior to the imposi-
tion of international sanctions. Most imports
coming from Iran were energy related, while
exports were mainly machinery, transport
equipment, and chemicals. During the sanc-
tions, the European bloc, once Iran’s top trad-
ing partner and its second-biggest oil custom-
er, saw imports decrease by 86% and exports
decrease by 26%, with the oil trade coming to
a complete halt.
Since the beginning of negotiations, Euro-
pean countries took the diplomatic lead and
played a critical role in the efforts to reach an
agreement.France,Germany,andtheUK,along
with China, Russia, and the US, formed the P5+1
group, which joined the EU in its intention of re-
storing ties with Iran. After almost two years of
arduous negotiations, the signing of the JCPOA
carries the promotion of EU-Iran relations in or-
der to step back to the pre-sanctions era.
To capitalize on the historic nuclear deal,
President Hassan Rouhani paid a visit to Italy,
the Vatican, and France in an important bid
to rebuild relations with Europe. Deals worth
nearly USD45 billion were struck during the
Iranian president’s four-day visit after the lift-
ing of sanctions. Italy, which was Iran’s largest
European trade partner, agreed to cooperate
in various sectors, ranging from steel to ship-
ECHOES OF
THE JCPOA
The implementation
of the Joint
Comprehensive
Plan of Action
(JCPOA) constitutes
a new chapter in the
relationship between
Iran and Europe, a
pair that had, before
sanctions, enjoyed
a long tradition of
cultural and economic
ties.
building. Italian metal industry firm Danieli
signed a USD6 billion contract to supply heavy
machinery and equipment to Iran, while oil
and gas contractor Saipem agreed to a USD4
billion deal to revamp and upgrade the Pars
Shiraz and Tabriz oil refineries. Two months
later, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi visited
Tehran at the head of a 250-strong political
and economic delegation, making him the first
major Western figure to travel to Iran since
sanctions were lifted.
After Rome and Paris, Brussels is also willing
to re-engage with Tehran. Last April, the EU
and the Islamic Republic agreed to boost trade
to USD30 billion over the next two years. High
Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs
and Security Policy and Vice-President of the
European Commission, Federica Mogherini,
visited Iran with another seven EU commis-
sioners. They announced a program of coop-
eration with a view of opening an EU delega-
tion in the Iranian capital. The two sides have
strived to strengthen bilateral collaboration to
enhance trade and investment in a wide range
of sectors, such as agriculture, transport, en-
ergy, science, and education. The EU will also
support Iran in its attempt to become a mem-
ber of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The agreement is expected to have a signifi-
cant impact on both the economy of Iran and
European markets. Leveraging its power as the
world’s largest trading bloc, Europe is seeking
the favor of a country with nearly 10% of global
oil reserves and 18% of natural gas reserves. In
March, an oil tanker covered the voyage from
Iran to Europe for the first time since sanctions
were lifted. According to the Ministry of Petro-
leum of Iran, the route will carry some 2 mil-
lion bpd. Oil giant Total signed a contract with
the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to
buy as many as 200,000 barrels of crude oil
per day. Technology and investment from
global integrated oil companies are expected
to increase capacity from Iran’s oil fields and
refineries.
The economic impact of a partial lifting of
sanctions extends beyond the energy sector.
European consumer-oriented companies are
looking for an opportunity in a country with a
population of 81 million. The development of
tourism and converting Tehran into a regional
financial hub are other reasons why European
officials are determined to clear a path toward
restored commercial relations. ✖
China
France
Germany
Russia
UK
USA (P5+1)
the European Union
Iran
Countries involved
THEBUSINESSYEAR 19Diplomacy
THE JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OF ACTION (JCPOA) IS THE
CULMINATION OF 20 MONTHS OF NEGOTIATIONS TO ENSURE THAT IRAN’S
NUCLEAR PROGRAM ABIDES BY INTERNATIONAL NON-PROLIFERATION
NORMS. EFFECTIVELY, IT HAS LIFTED MULTILATERAL AND NATIONAL
SANCTIONS AND HAS ALLOWED IRAN TO RESUME TRADE AND REBUILD
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD.
November 24, 2013
JPOA, the P5+1
agrees to provide
limited and
temporary sanctions
relief to Iran.
European bloc
saw Iranian
imports decrease
by 86% and
exports shrink by
26%
September 8, 2015
The US Senate
supports the
agreement. Three
days later, the House
of Representatives
rejects the accord
in a symbolic
vote that had no
consequences for
the implementation
of the deal.
USD4 billion
deal with
Italian Saipem
to upgrade the
Pars Shiraz
and Tabriz oil
refineries
October 13, 2015
The Majlis (Iranian
Parliament)
approves the
JCPOA.
USD6 billion
contract with
Italian metal
firm Danieli to
supply heavy
machinery
October 18, 2015
Adoption day: All
parties state that
they have taken the
preparatory steps to
bring the deal into
effect.
2 million bpd
of oil to Europe
January 16, 2016
Implementation
day: After the IAEA
confirmed that Iran
meets the require-
ments under the
JCPOA, all nuclear
sanctions are lifted
by the UN, the EU
and the US.
Total to buy
200,000 barrels
of crude oil per
day from the
National Iranian
Oil Company
(NIOC)
July 14, 2015
Finalization day:
All parties agree
to a landmark
comprehensive
nuclear agreement
endorsed by the UN
Security Council. This
sets into motion the
lifting of certain EU
sanctions, including
those prohibiting the
purchase of Iranian oil.
USD45 billion in
deals made on
a 4-day trip by
President Hassan
Rouhani to Italy,
the Vatican, and
France
SOURCE: TBY RESEARCH
A HISTORIC DEAL
THEBUSINESSYEAR20 IRAN 2016
F O R U M
Thecontentonthispageistakenfromexclusiveinterviews.Readthefullversionsatthebusinessyear.com
MARINA KALJURAND
Minister of Foreign
Affairs, Republic of
Estonia
HE ENG. ALI BIN
MASOUD AL SUNAIDY
Minister of Commerce
and Industry, Sultanate
of Oman
A
s a member state of the EU, Es-
tonia is interested in developing
economic relations with Iran in a
broader context. After the successful con-
clusion of the nuclear talks last July and
the subsequent implementation of the
agreement reached, Estonia is willing to
use the opportunities offered by the EU’s
economic environment also in its relations
with Iran. There are opportunities to be
explored in several fields, including ICT.
Estonia has made some progress in devel-
oping e-governance and e-services, and we
are ready to share our experience. Another
potential field for cooperation is logistics,
due to the geographical position of Estonia
and Iran, both being situated in the cross-
points of trade routes and transit corridors.
Estonia’s position in northeast Europe
in the immediate proximity to Scandi-
navia offers particular opportunities for
the transit sector, including establishing
distribution or production centers. There
are modern transport solutions and ports
in Estonia that are best suited for fast and
reliable service. In addition, the Estonian
food industry offers high-quality produc-
tion on international markets, especially
milk and dairy products, meat and meat
products, fish and fish products, berries,
and honey. We are also ready to offer our
products to the Iranian market.
I
ran is a close market with great
opportunities for our “Made in
Oman” chemicals and building
materials and it is also a long-term source of
natural gas, minerals, and fresh food items.
Therefore, trade opportunities with Iran are
tremendous. Traditionally, the GCC coun-
tries have traded with Iran, but the trade
volume with Oman has been rather modest
and, therefore, there is great potential for
growth. Oman can provide Iranian com-
panies with a fast link for their exports and
imports with the world through the nearly
developed facilities at the ports of Sohar,
Salalah, and Duqm, but an Iran-based busi-
ness can trade directly with the world and
does not have to rely only on Omani ports
or airports. We have to offer world-class
efficiency and handling speed in order to
route some of that trade through Oman.
Iran today needs to expand its oil and gas
production capabilities, power generation,
telecommunication, petrochemicals, and
construction. Oman has relevant experi-
ence in all these sectors. For example, Oman
has reformed electricity and privatized its
generation in 2004, and we are proud of the
advancements we have made in this sector.
Iran also needs to expand in communica-
tions, and the two countries are connected
via a number of sea fiber-optic lines that fa-
cilitate information flow between Iran and
the rest of the world.
I
ran’s reintroduction into the glob-
al economy following the lifting of
UN sanctions is a game-changer
in regional economic and security affairs.
As such, this emerging trend assures a great
place in the priority list of its foreign policy
strategy toward the Middle East. In 2016, the
discussions with our Iranian counterparts
during some ensuing visits have stressed
trade and investment, where both sides
pledged to work toward increasing two-way
trade levels to over USD3 billion, which is
several-fold higher than our current figures.
As a country with huge oil and gas potential,
Iranian cooperation with Thailand will be
driven by the energy sector, while innovation
and development through scientific cooper-
ation will also be focused. This could lead to
technological breakthroughs in a number of
fields, including the biotech and agro indus-
tries. We should not lose sight of agriculture,
which is another important sector, with rice
exports and fisheries at the top of the menu.
In many ways we are exploring fresh op-
portunities with new and existing partners,
including in the Middle East. We are also in-
tensifying cooperation and engagement with
our friends and partners around the world to
address common challenges that we face.
All of this is very much in the longstanding
tradition of Thailand’s open diplomacy and
constructive engagement in the internation-
al community that the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs practices and promotes.
MINISTERIAL
RELATIONS
Ministers represent important
connections between the
governments of Iran and other
countries around the world.
DON PRAMUDWINAI
Minister of Foreign
Affairs, Kingdom of
Thailand
THEBUSINESSYEAR 21
R E V I E W
Economy
Foreign companies with a
longstanding presence in Iran
are poised to benefit following
the lifting of sanctions.
3527
TBY talks to Dr. Farhad Zargari,
Managing Director & Chairman
of Iran Foreign Investments
Company (IFIC).
TBY partnered with the German-
Iranian Chamber of Commerce to
host a roundtable with banking
and industry leaders.
30
I
With the severe sanctions that
led to a national economic recession
a thing of the past, Iran enters a new
era of great economic potential.
t is no rare occur-
rence in the areas
of modern-day Iran
for the fortunes of
the many societies that have
called the region home to
seemingly change on a dime
as if by dramatic intervention.
Since the country’s Islamic
Revolution of 1979, when the
regime of Western-backed
Mohammad Reza Shah Pahla-
vi was replaced with the theo-
cratic government of its cur-
rentform,theIslamicRepublic
of Iran has not had a particu-
larly easy time partaking in the
increasingly globalized mod-
ern economy while retaining
a firm position on defining the
contours of its own socio-po-
litical identity. Harsh econom-
ic and diplomatic sanctions
put in place between 2012
and 2013 triggered a severe
recession that saw the loss of
roughly 27.57% of the nation’s
economic output, with GDP
falling from USD587.209 bil-
lion in 2012 to USD425.326 bil-
lion in 2014. Despite the crip-
pling burden of the sanctions,
Iran’s estimated USD393.7
billion GDP in 2015—down
7.44% YoY from 2014—made
it the second-largest economy
The lifting of economic sanctions against Iran has placed the attention of
spectators and participants alike on the next moves the country will take
in this ever-so-crucial moment in its own genesis.
OH HOW IRANin the MENA region, trailing
only Saudi Arabia, while its
79.1 million-strong population
makes it the second-largest
country in the region behind
Egypt.
Though GDP per capita in
Iran, which stands at approx-
imately USD17,365 at inter-
national purchasing power
parity, has long outpaced the
regional average, its country
ranking fell in the World Eco-
nomic Forum’s 2016-2017
Global Competitiveness Re-
port (GCR) to 76th, down two
spots from 74th in the 2015-
2016 edition of the report.
While the direct role played
by the state in managing its
commanding heights and
the central importance of the
local hydrocarbon sector is
similar to numerous MENA
economies, Iran’s differs from
many of its regional peers in
the level of diversification. Its
GDP is supported by services,
agriculture, and manufactur-
ing and mining, all accounting
for significant portions of the
country’s economic output.
According to an annual report
from the Central Bank of Iran,
the services sector contribut-
ed 1.5% to GDP growth in the
Image: Iran Daily
THEBUSINESSYEAR22 IRAN 2016
SEYED KAMAL
SEYED ALI
Chairman & CEO,
Export Guarantee
Fund of Iran (EGFI)
What are the most important
sectors in Iran’s economy for
EGFI?
Oil is certainly the most im-
portant sector, and we need to
continue to ensure that we can
export and sell our oil competi-
tively around the world. Banking
is the second most important
sector, followed by insurance,
shipping, and automotive. In
terms of export markets, during
the sanctions we did not have any
problems exporting certain pe-
troleum products. Now, we sell a
great deal of goods and products
to Europe. We also export food
items like pistachios and saffron,
a considerable part of which is
exported to Europe, our largest
market.
What investments have you
made abroad?
We have a power plant in
Tajikistan worth more than
USD350 million. We also have
investments in Sri Lanka worth
USD450 million. In Armenia we
have a USD100 million power
plant project and similar projects
in Senegal and Cuba. In Iraq we
developed more than 25 projects
in the last three years worth
more than USD1 billion, including
the new Iraqi parliament. Those
projects are mainly power plants
and construction projects, espe-
cially dams, stadiums, roads, and
housing. Many Iranian contrac-
tors can now compete globally
and are active in many neighbor-
ing countries.*
*Readthefullinterviewatthebusinessyear.com
2013/2014 fiscal year, while manufacturing and
mining contributed 1.3% and the oil sector add-
ed a further 0.5%, making them the three largest
contributors to economic growth.
The 17th-largest country in the world by area,
Iran sits atop a wealth of hydrocarbon resources,
with the world’s fourth-largest proven crude oil
reservesandsecond-largestnaturalgasreserves.
The state budget, and in turn a sizable portion
of overall economic activity, still relies heavily
on hydrocarbon revenues. This has exposed the
Iranian economy to a great deal of volatility in
recent years. In large part due to declining oil
prices, the country’s fiscal deficit increased from
1.2% of GDP in 2014 to 2.7% in 2015, while the
national current account surplus fell to approx-
imately 0.6% of GDP in 2015 from 3.8% of GDP
in 2015. However, these effects of declining oil
and gas prices have been somewhat mitigated,
as international sanctions limiting access to
global markets forced Iran to enact significant
structural reforms in response to the downward
price pressures of lower oil revenues many years
ahead of other oil-exporters in the region. Gross
national savings stand at an impressive 30.1% of
GDP, while government debt sits at just 17.1%
of GDP, putting the country at 22nd and ninth
place, respectively, in the GCR. In addition to
the buffering effects of economic sanctions, the
country’s financial and capital accounts have re-
mained comparatively unresponsive to shocks
in the external macroeconomic environment.
Its lower exposure to volatility in international
capital markets has provided it a serendipitous
layer of added protection from developments
such as hikes in the US Federal Reserve interest
rate, which have had an immediate impact on
the performance of many other similarly struc-
tured emerging market economies.
Although Iran has been able to reap second-
ary benefits from the sanctions, the resulting
economic recession has placed significant bur-
dens on several of the country’s most sensitive
areas of production. GDP growth reached just
0.5% during 2015, which, although low, marks
a much-needed turnaround from several years
of rapid contraction in the country’s GDP. Em-
ployment, on the other hand, has not enjoyed
such a speedy turnaround, with unemploy-
ment increasing from 10.6% in 2014 to 11.7% in
2015. With increasing portions of the national
labor force struggling to find employment op-
portunities, inflation has thankfully dropped
from the 34% high in 2013 to single digits in
2016. Annual changes in the consumer price
index have dropped dramatically from a 45.1%
peak in October 2012. Containment in 2015 of
the hyperinflation that plagued the country in
recent years was largely attributed to the stead-
fastness of the Central Bank of Iran in its posi-
tion on monetary policy.
The removal of sanctions that came with the
signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac-
tion (JCPOA) in July 2016 is projected to boost
production and exports of oil, while in theory
decreasing the costs of both international finan-
cial transactions as well as commercial trade.
The lifting of sanctions brought with it an enor-
mous boost in confidence among both local and
foreign investors rushing to capitalize on the
myriad opportunities made available by the re-
opening of economic channels with the global
marketplace. Another immediate benefit of the
JCPOA for the government of Iran will be the re-
newed access to heretofore frozen foreign-held
assets, around USD30 billion of which have
already been made available. On top of these
windfall assets, the government hopes to im-
prove the operational effectiveness of expendi-
ture activities by instituting large-scale reforms
of its subsidy programs, looking in particular
to reevaluate its policies on issuing subsidies
for key products such as electricity, water, and
bread. During the 2007-2008 fiscal year, indi-
rect subsidies reached an estimated USD77.2
billion, the equivalent to approximately 27% of
the year’s total GDP. Continued reduction of
significant subsidies like those for fuel through
adaptive policies, like the government’s new
direct cash transfer programs and increased
collection and mobilization of national tax reve-
nues, are now key to further narrowing the fiscal
deficit and containing mounting stresses on real
exchange rates and forex markets as well as on
imported inflation.
Not content to wait for market movements
to dictate its policy, the leaders of Iran have
formulated a comprehensive policy framework
centering on market reforms through the sixth
development plan for 2016-2021 as well as a
20-year long-term strategic vision. The devel-
opment agenda is based on the three tenets of
reinforcing the resilience of the national econ-
omy, achieving an 8% annual GDP growth rate,
and supporting domestic innovations in science
and technology. The cause for focusing on better
leveraging available knowledge-based assets is
2012 2013 2014 2015
STATE BUDGET (CURRENT USD BILLION)
SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
28.21
18.01
37.97
22.74
45.59
30.99
54.11
35.62
Revenues Expenditures
THEBUSINESSYEAR24 IRAN 2016
*Readthefullinterviewatthebusinessyear.com
illustrated by Iran’s standing in the GCR, which
ranked the country 48th and 44th for the quality
of its math and science education and the local
availability of scientists and engineers, respec-
tively, yet put it at just number 89 in the world
in terms of its capacity to innovate. The plan
also calls for reconfiguring state oil revenues
and implementing deep-reaching restructuring
in many key nationalized enterprises, including
those in the capital markets and financial ser-
vices sector.
Though Iran has the 19th largest domestic
market in the world, the prevalence of foreign
ownership was ranked just 137th best in by the
GCR, while the business impact of FDI regu-
lations earned Iran 133rd place in the report.
The signing of the JCPOA will give Iran access to
the global marketplace, help it establish a more
competitive national business environment,
and fuel in large part an increase in GDP growth,
which the IMF’s First Deputy Director expects to
reach 4.5% in 2016, before it levels off to an aver-
age rate of roughly 4% over the medium term. In
addition to a return to the years of higher GDP
growth rates, increased oil revenues are expect-
ed to shrink the fiscal deficit to approximately
1.8% in 2016 before falling to just 1% in 2017,
while driving the current account balance back
into the green by 2017.
The benefits of the JCPOA are expected to
bring about noticeable immediate improve-
ments to prosperity at the household level, with
per capita welfare projected to improve by 3.7%
thanks to the growth opportunities made avail-
able by the ongoing trend of liberalization and
privatization of transport and financial services
as well as the increased oil income expected to
follow the end of the oil embargo put in place
by the EU. That exports measured just 18.7%
of GDP in 2015—one of the lowest levels in the
world—gives further credence to the optimism
among many that the removal of economic
sanctions is key to turning around the country’s
regressive economic trajectory of late. Though
increased production and exports of oil and gas
will relieve pressure on the state budget, one of
the real keys to sustainable long-term growth in
the post-JCPOA era will be bolstering the com-
petitiveness of the country’s non-oil sector.
This will also be crucial for new job creation, a
linchpin for the future of a society characterized
by the youth of its population, more than 60%
of which was estimated as recently as 2013 to be
under the age of 30.
The 2017/2018 fiscal year’s budget represents
a further opportunity for Iran’s leaders to set a
unified direction for Iran’s economic course by
establishing a strategy to reduce the deficit for
the non-oil sectors and maintain the current
levels of low inflation. The strategy stands to po-
sition the country to better navigate the uncer-
tain macroeconomic environment to which it is
now increasingly exposed, particularly in terms
of enduring depressed oil prices and increasing
debt service costs. One implication of this is the
impetus on heads of both the public and private
sectorstosecureareliableanddiversifiedmixof
capital funding to support the increased public
spending needed to drive consolidated efforts
to reorient the national economic structure. In
the post-sanctions era, the greater involvement
of the international business community is
expected to enhance productivity, create new
jobs, improve the standard of living, and extend
investments in entrepreneurial endeavors. A
flourishing Iran could represent a guiding force
for regional stability and long-term prosperity.
Continuing the steps taken thus far to improve
the economic and legislative environment are
top on the country’s strategic agenda. ✖
Despite the crippling
burden of the
sanctions, Iran’s
estimated USD393.7
billion GDP in 2015—
down 7.44% YoY
from 2014—made it
the second-largest
economy in the MENA
region, trailing only
Saudi Arabia.
DAVID LIPTON
First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
What measures should Iran apply to drive Ira-
nian banks toward meeting Basel III require-
ments?
The severity of the challenges facing Iran’s
banking system requires immediate action. Iran’s
banks are undercapitalized, asset quality is weak,
and credit is costly amid high real interest rates.
Banks need to be placed on a sound financial
footing. This requires resolving non-performing
loans, recapitalizing and restructuring weak
banks, strengthening bank supervision by bringing
unlicensed banks under the Central Bank of Iran
(CBI) supervisory umbrella, and increasing the
CBI’s enforcement powers.
What is the IMF’s outlook on Iran’s economic
performance?
Our outlook remains favorable, with Iran benefiting
from a strong rebound in the oil sector and gradual
recovery in the non-oil sector. Growth is expected to
reach 4.5%, while inflation should remain in single
digits. Improvement in Iran’s growth rate will de-
pend on non-oil prospects. Achieving the 8% growth
target requires reforms that protect macroeconomic
stability through prudent monetary and fiscal poli-
cies that minimize inflation and stabilize exchange
rates as well modernize and liberalize the economy,
creating a more export-oriented and competitive
economic model that can create jobs for the large
youth population, and build the confidence of foreign
businesses to expand trade and investment.*
THEBUSINESSYEAR 25Economy
I N T E R V I E W
According to your 10-year plan,
what role should the private
sector play in the development
of the Iranian economy?
After the signing of the
JCPOA, all the countries
showed their interest in re-
connecting with Iran. At the
same time, we were inter-
Dr. Mohsen Jalalpour is the
former President of the Iran
Chamber of Commerce,
Industries, Mines &
Agriculture (ICCIMA).
Previously, he was the
President of Iranian National
Committee of International
Chamber of Commerce
(INC-ICC), the President
of Kerman Chamber of
Commerce, Industries,
Mines and Agriculture for
12 years, and the Founder
and Chairman of the Iran
Pistachio Association. He has
also held different managing
positions in the private
sector, as the Managing
Director of Kerman Rahbaran
Cement Co., Chairman of
Trade Development Co., Pars
Tadbir Pariz Investment
Co., and Arman Roshan Arg
Investment Co. He holds
a bachelor’s in economics
and a bachelor of civil
engineering from Kerman
University, Iran.
BIO
TBY talks to Dr. Mohsen Jalalpour, former President of Iran Chamber
of Commerce, Industries, Mines & Agriculture (ICCIMA), on the private
sector’s role in driving economic development, attracting FDI, and
improving the country’s international standing.
PRIVATE
chambers
ested in connecting with the
international economy. We
learnt a great deal during the
sanctions period, and low oil
prices also convinced us of
the necessity of changing our
patterns toward a stronger
private sector. In the foresee-
able future, our economy will
enter a new phase where all
the development will be led
by the private sector. The next
10 years will be very different
from the previous 10, and we
have many plans for venture
capital projects across many
sectors, such as agriculture
and tourism.
What is the importance of at-
tracting foreign investment to
achieve 5% GDP growth?
Last year we had 5% growth
only in the agriculture sector
without any foreign invest-
ment. We also saw 4% growth
in the oil and gas sector. But
if we consider the unemploy-
ment rate in Iran, account-
ing for two and a half million
to three million people, we
have to reach more than 8%
GDP growth this year to cre-
ate enough jobs. In order to
achieve this milestone, we
have to absorb investment
from abroad. Approximately
200 delegations have come
to this chamber during the
last few years. After visiting
President of the European
Parliament Martin Schulz
in Brussels, he raised three
points that are important to
attract this investment, espe-
cially from Europe. First, he
said Iran is not a consuming
country and foreign compa-
nies have to invest in Iran by
transferring technology mak-
ing joint ventures. Secondly,
Iran is not only a country with
80 million people; it is within
a region of 400 million peo-
ple and has great influence
in those markets. Finally, he
said all the agreements and
MoUs that were signed ear-
lier should be renewed and
restarted in order to improve
relations with Iran.
How does the chamber coop-
erate with the government and
parliament to promote trade?
We have strong links with
the public sector, the judi-
ciary, and also parliament.
We have to create procedures
and transmit all the needs
• Promotes
development of
the private sector
• Aims to attract
FDI
• Targeting 8%
GDP growth in
2016
and difficulties of the private
sector to the parliament and
the government. We are a
side of the government. Some
members of the parliament
come to the chamber and we
discuss the private sector and
the needs of the Iranian econ-
omy.
What role can Iran play in the
international market?
When you look globally and
focus on resources, popula-
tion, history, and culture, Iran
is a leader among all the coun-
tries in all sectors. Iran has had
a deep influence on the histo-
ry of humanity. Considering
the power of our economy
and our human resources, we
have a leading position in the
region as a transit hub from
the north, south, east, and
west corridors, with access to
several neighboring countries.
You will see the increasing in-
fluence of Iran in the near fu-
ture, especially in energy and
renewables. In tourism, min-
ing, and minerals, we will also
be a leader. We will be one
of the safest countries in the
near future and a source of
production and distribution
for international companies
in the Middle East. Consid-
ering the geographical situa-
tion and access to oceans and
seaports, Iran will be a hub for
transporting goods to over-
seas markets. All this poten-
tial will be materialized if we
develop our private sector. ✖
THEBUSINESSYEAR26 IRAN 2016
F O C U S V I S I O N 2 0 2 5
IN ACCORDANCE WITH the horizon doc-
ument, which was prepared by the Expediency
Council and ratified by the Supreme Leader in
2005, Iran must be the regional leader in terms
of economy, science, and technology by 2025.
Creating an inspiring society has required Iran’s
leaders to prioritize young people and the trans-
fer of knowledge, implementing new technolo-
gy, creating jobs, and bringing in foreign invest-
ment. To that end, the success of Vision 2025
relies on Iran’s ability to build constructive and
effective international relationships with the
world’s nations.
A glance at the deals signed with Italy and
France illustrates the government’s prioritiza-
tion of economic and technological coopera-
tion in energy, industry, tourism, and finance.
“Iran is the safest, most stable country in the
entire region. We invite you to invest and we
will provide stability and ensure that you can
make adequate returns,” Rouhani emphasized
to European businessmen and politicians. Iran
seeks 8% GDP growth, and experts say to be able
to achieve it the country needs between USD30
and 90 billion in annual investment. Therefore,
minimizing tensions while promoting peace
and trust is key for Iran to facilitate the acqui-
sition of foreign investment and technologies
needed to develop the country.
Moreover, the JCPOA agreement is the ulti-
mate representation of the importance of link-
ing with the world to achieve future objectives.
Resolving the nuclear issue was instrumental
to fulfilling the vision’s goal of recognition and
reintegration in the international system as an
equal player. Since then, numerous political
and economic delegations have landed in Teh-
ran to boost ties and sign fruitful deals.
Without a doubt, energy has been one of the
main topics on the negotiation table, as Iran
is seeking to attract more than USD100 billion
in investments from international oil compa-
nies in a long-term plan to develop more than
70 crude and natural gas projects. By 2025, the
Islamic Republic aims to produce 8% of the
LINKING
WITH THE FUTURE
According to its
strategic plan, Iran
seeks to become the
Middle East’s top
power by the next
decade. Vision 2025,
also called Twenty-
Year National Vision,
embraces a set of goals
to create a knowledge-
based society with
economic growth. In
the context of a year
based on a resistant
economy, President
Rouhani acknowledged
that Iran’s
development depends
on its interaction with
the world.
world’s gas and 7% of the world’s oil, which
would make it OPEC’s second-largest producer.
Additionally, Iranian non-oil exports were
growing even before sanctions were lifted. After
hydrocarbons, the automotive industry is Iran’s
biggest sector, accounting for about 10% of GDP
and employing about 4% of the labor force.
Reaching the number one rank in the Middle
East’s automotive industry based on technolog-
ical advancement is another of Iran’s goals for
2025. Assuming no further sanctions will be im-
posed, it can be expected that the country will
produce up to 2 million vehicles within the next
10 years. Up to 40 foreign automakers, including
Peugeot, Mercedes, and Toyota, have declared
their interest in using Iran as a hub for exporting
their products to neighboring countries.
In recent years, tourism has become the
center of attention of national policymakers as
another major sector to be focused on. Around
20 million tourists are expected for 2025, which
will equate to some USD25 billion in income.
This represents 30% growth over the next four
years and requires renovating tourism infra-
structures, especially in accommodation and
transportation facilities. According to the na-
tional plan, this will require USD11 billion in
investment.
Ultimately, Vision 2025 foresees a total invest-
ment of USD3.7 trillion to finance the transition
fromaresource-basedtoaknowledgeeconomy.
Much of this amount will go toward supporting
investment in R&D in areas like biotechnolo-
gy, nanotechnology, space technology, nuclear
energy, and medicine. With external tensions
simmering down, the Iranian government sees
an opportunity to play a much more significant
role in the international arena to improve eco-
nomic conditions, reduce vulnerabilities, and
promote competitive advantages. Seeing Vi-
sion 2025 to fruition involves reconnecting its
vibrant emerging economy to world markets,
with the allure of prosperity for international
and local investors, and a brighter future for a
young, talented population. ✖
2020
2025
THEBUSINESSYEAR 27Economy
I N T E R V I E W
What is the role of IFIC in es-
tablishing confidence within the
global market in order to attract
foreign investment?
As the main body for invest-
ing abroad on behalf of the
government, IFIC has a big
responsibility to strengthen
the international economic
relations of Iran. IFIC is now
present on five continents,
and we have investments in 22
countries. The first way we at-
tract foreign investors to Iran is
through foreign investments,
as per our mandate and pri-
mary responsibility. When we
carry out these investments
abroad, we become part of the
international network, cre-
ating an atmosphere of trust
and indirectly inviting inter-
ested parties to come to Iran.
We also have investments in
private equities and stock
markets around the world.
We own shares in important
companies such as British Pe-
troleum, ThyssenKrupp, Sie-
mens, Adidas, and many other
big brands. Although IFIC is
not allowed to invest in Iran
on its own, we can also attract
Dr. Farhad Zargari is
currently the Chairman
and Managing Director of
Iran Foreign Investment
Company (IFIC). In 2015
he was appointed Advisor
to the Minister of Finance
and Economic Affairs.
For several years he was
Managing Director of the
Tamin Pharmaceutical
Investment Company
(TPICO). He served as
Director for studies and
strategic planning in Social
Security Investment
Company (SSIC-SHASTA)
in 2008. He has also
held several senior roles
in the Social Security
Organization (SSO) and
was SSO’s representative
in the International Social
Security Association (ISSA)
in Geneva. Dr. Zargari
completed his studies in
management in Arizona.
BIO
TBY talks to Dr.
Farhad Zargari,
Managing Director
& Chairman of Iran
Foreign Investments
Company (IFIC),
on the role of
the organization
in establishing
confidence within the
global market.
growing
CAPITAL
foreign investments by co-in-
vesting with foreign investors
inside Iran through our sub-
sidiaries. Our presence in any
domestic project is a source of
comfort for foreign investors
to freely come to Iran.
Does the lifting of sanctions rep-
resent a turning point in your in-
vestment strategy abroad?
Our board reviewed our
investment strategy—tak-
ing into consideration the
post-sanction circumstanc-
es—and formulated a new
plan that identified three tar-
get areas for investment, the
first of which is financial insti-
tutions. Our investments will
now focus more on the bank-
ing system, leasing compa-
nies, insurance and re-insur-
ance firms, investment funds,
and the like. Our second area
for investment is global capital
markets, as certain resources
need high liquidity in order
to be able to cash them for
further FDIs. The third area is
direct investment in high-tech
industries, so we will concen-
trate on ICT and new scienc-
es. In our portfolio, we have a
large investment in ICT and
mobile operations around
the world. We are present in
mobile operations in seven
African countries and certain
Asian countries. We have ac-
tion plans in place to target
these three investment areas
in the coming years.
What is the importance of main-
taining a good relationship with
the European market?
One of IFIC’s significant roles
is to create a bridge between
Iran and other countries with
our investments, in order to
pave the ground for knowl-
edge and know-how transfer.
This is one of the consider-
ations we had in mind when
we chose high-technology
industries as a focus for our
future investments. We feel
more secure investing in Eu-
ropean and other developed
countries compared to less
regulated countries. Despite
the sanctions, IFIC’s invest-
ments in Europe were almost
intact. Our investments, cap-
ital gain, and dividends were
all secure. After the lifting of
sanctions we can transfer that
money to new investment
projects, and we are attracted
to countries with good gover-
nance.
What will be your position
among leading global invest-
ment companies in the coming
years?
We have thus far made our
investments by using the
dividends and profits from
our previous investments.
However, currently we are
in the process of creating an
investment fund in Switzer-
land. This should give other
investors enough confidence
to also invest in this fund. At
the same time, the fund pro-
spectus clearly states it works
with Iranian companies and
finances them for trade. Trade
financing is an important tool
that Iranian companies are
definitely in need of, which
wasthereasonforcreatingthis
fund. It will help Iranian com-
panies overcome the scarcity
of resources they face at the
moment. This fund should
guarantee 6% profit annually
at a time when interest rates in
Europe are negative. With the
lifting of sanctions, we have
gained more freedom to op-
erate more broadly and form
partnerships with competent
partners, which will hopefully
lead to even better results in
the future. ✖
Invests
government
assets in 22
countries across
five continents
Focuses on
financial
institutions,
capital markets,
and ICT
THEBUSINESSYEAR28 IRAN 2016
I N T E R V I E W
How does the lifting of sanc-
tions represent a turning point
for Atiyeh Saba’s mission of
giving local companies access
to global markets?
The lifting of sanctions means
Iran will open up to the world
after 20 years. Iranians are
well known for their hospital-
ity, but the removal of sanc-
tions will grant the country
the opportunity to show it
to the world. When I took of-
fice, the sanctions were in the
last process of removal. Since
then, we organized a confer-
ence in Isfahan where we in-
vited top officials involved in
the hospitality sector, such as
Kempinski, Rotana, Ritz Carl-
ton, and the École hôtelière de
Lausanne. We wanted to show
that we are ready to deal with
the world, and we received
a great response; so far, we
have defined USD10 billion
in projects with foreign inves-
tors. In order to be ready for
the arrival of more visitors to
Iran, we need to renovate the
hospitality sector, as most of
the hotels were built 45 years
ago. This has become a major
project for Atiyeh Saba, as we
plan to build at least 50 five-
star hotels.
What investments are you con-
ducting to prepare the required
transport infrastructure for the
development of tourism?
Iran has about 250 aircraft in
total, and Aseman Airlines is
one of the leading airline in
the country with strong roots
even before the revolution.
During the war and sanctions
period, many of our aircraft
were damaged, and we are
currently renovating them.
Dr. Ahmad Reza Nikkar is
the CEO and Board Member
of Atiyeh Saba Investment
Company, affiliated with the
Civil Servants Pension Fund.
Prior to his current role,
Dr. Nikkar held different
positions in the Ministry of
Industry, Mining, and Trade,
also being the Executive
Manager of the high-speed
train between Tehran and
Esfahan, as well as in the
Ministry of Health and
Medical Education. He
holds a bachelor’s degree
in civil engineering, a
M.S. Industrial, a Ph.D. in
curriculum and planning
from Texas University, and
a post-doctorate in planning
and management from
Harvard University.
BIO
TBY talks to Dr. Ahmad
Reza Nikkar, CEO of
Atiyeh Saba Investment
Co., on new access after
sanctions, preparing
for the development of
the tourism industry,
and plans for the year
ahead.
BRINGING the best
During the president’s visit
to France, we signed a MoU
with Airbus, and 50 aircraft
were assigned to Aseman.
At the same time, we have
to expand our airports and
railroads. We started invest-
ing in a high-speed railroad
from Tehran to Isfahan and
have signed an MoU with
Italy’s ENZO Group to de-
velop the Tehran-Mashhad
railroad project, valued at
USD5.5 million. Overall, we
have signed USD8 billion in
contracts with ENZO. More-
over, because of the pollu-
tion in Iran, we have signed
a contract to purchase 14,000
hybrid cars to transport visi-
tors throughout the country.
We will send instructors to
mosques and the five in-
ternational airports to train
drivers to improve their En-
glish. Besides our invest-
ments in transport, we are
defining different attractions
for the tourism industry.
How are you attracting new
technologies to the mining in-
dustry to develop the sector?
Mining was not part of our
activities before, but since I
joined Atiyeh Saba we have
set up a holding for the min-
ing sector. We now hold mul-
tiple meetings with foreign
companies that are inter-
ested in supporting projects
financially. Mining projects
take a long time in produc-
tion, so it is not easy to find
investors who want to wait
five to seven years to make
a profit. We aim to invest
in different materials such
as copper or in areas like
Chadormalu.
What are your plans for the
year ahead?
We want to show the world
who we are and what we can
do. We aim to share our proj-
ects with the world, and the
best location to focus on first
is the UAE. We organized an
exhibition in Dubai to intro-
duce ourselves to the world’s
biggest companies and show
off our capabilities. Further-
more, we are developing the
Melli National Shoe, a brand
that has 240 stores through-
out the world. We signed a
contract with the Polytech-
nic University of Turin to
redesign the shoe. The de-
mands of young people have
changed, so we have to make
them believe this is what they
need. We bring in the best ex-
pertise to all these projects.
The country now needs to
focus on creative ideas that
create assets, not just invest.
Thinking will bring about
many assets for the develop-
ment of Iran. ✖
Contributes to
the development
of infrastructure,
such as highways,
railroads, and
aviation
THEBUSINESSYEAR 29Economy
B 2 BThecontentonthispageistakenfromexclusiveinterviews.Readthefullversionsatthebusinessyear.com
What role does your chamber of
commerce play in supporting bi-
lateral relations with Iran?
OMID YARAGHI German-Ira-
nian economic ties go back a
long time. The AHK belongs to
the German Chambers of Indus-
try and Commerce (DIHK), our
main mother chamber in Berlin.
The network of 130 chambers in
90 countries is what makes us
unique in front of other foreign
chambers existing in Iran. AHK
is the second-largest German
joint chamber worldwide after
India. We have over 2,000 mem-
ber companies, of which around
1,500 are Iranian and 500 are
German. One of these mem-
bers is Bayer, which was active
during sanctions, as its medical
and pharmaceutical products
were not affected by sanctions.
There has been a major shift in
the partnership between Iran
and other countries in past
years; China has moved ahead,
and India has come into the
game, as have South Korea and
many other countries that were
not present before the sanc-
tions. Therefore, taking back the
market share for German com-
panies that moved out of Iran
will not be easy.
Foreign chambers of commerce in Iran form
a key axis in linking Iranian potential with the
world economy.
OMID YARAGHI
President, German-
Iranian Chamber of
Commerce & Industry
(AHK)
SHARIF NEZAM-
MAFI
Chairman, Iran-
Switzerland Chamber
of Commerce
chambers of
COMMERCE
SHARIFNEZAM-MAFI Switzer-
land has played a critical role in
Iran’s re-engagement with the
West, and with the EU in partic-
ular. It played a pivotal role in
the P5+1 negotiations and the
subsequent prisoner exchange
with the US that took place af-
ter the signature and the imple-
mentation of the agreement.
As Switzerland represents US
interests in Iran, it was a facil-
itator of the negotiations, and
as a result of its neutrality it has
built up a great deal of political
capital in Iran. Switzerland has
been a doorway to Europe for
Iran. Although the final signa-
ture of the JCPOA was in Vien-
na, not in Lausanne, the bulk
of the negotiations took place
in Switzerland. The Swiss am-
bassador has done an excellent
job in terms of explaining to
Iran what is expected of them
and what it wants out of this
negotiation. Switzerland has
been more of a translator in
explaining what the other side
wants and will play an even
more critical role in preparing
Iranian banks and financial
institutions to engage with Eu-
ropeans. During the years of
conflict, especially the war with
Iraq and the subsequent sanc-
tions, Switzerland has always
remained neutral, which has
meant a great deal to Iran.
Which sectors are of most
strategic importance for your
chamber?
OY One of the biggest aims of
companies coming to Iran is to
get involved in the oil and gas
sector, which is mostly under
the control of the government.
Nonetheless, the contract with
Siemens shows that the coun-
try is moving toward the re-
newables industry, as we have
a big potential to provide solar
and wind energy. The petro-
chemical sector here, where the
private sector is more involved,
may soon see added value and
become more than just raw
material for export. We will also
see a great deal of investment
in the pharmaceutical industry,
as Iran is strong in that sector.
Around 11% of the labor force
in Iran is active in the textile
sector, and in the future we
will see joint investments and
cooperation for foreign textile
companies in Iran. Agriculture
is also an area that was not sup-
ported enough in the past, but
there are many possibilities
and facilities now for different
kinds of investments. Looking
at Iran’s geography, we have
different climates and land-
scapes, such as the Caspian Sea
or forested areas in the south,
and this represents numerous
opportunities to produce con-
sumable goods.
SNM I do not foresee big banks
coming back anytime soon.
The going price on coming
back is the fee that was levied
on HSBC, which was almost
USD15 billion. No bank can
make that much profit in Iran,
in any business, but we still
need the big banks. Second-ti-
er banks cannot finance the
purchase of 180 Airbus aircraft.
This situation has to be solved,
and the P5+1 agreement did
not take up this issue, which
was a mistake. Following the
US and Iranian elections, we
should have more clarity on
the direction things will go. At
the same time, Iranian banks
may also be more ready. In the
West they are now talking of
the draft of Basel IV, whereas
we have still yet to implement
Basel II. We have to address
issues like money laundering,
due diligence, and transparen-
cy. Many companies that want
to come here and engage in the
local market and make part-
nerships with local companies
are less than well informed,
meaning that they will consider
investing here risky. Unless we
have the necessary standards
to bring the private sector and
the government sector on a par
with international standards,
things will be tough. ✖
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IRAN

  • 1. IRAN 2016 The lifting of economic sanctions has opened up increased possibilities for trade and investment. The Governor of the Central Bank discusses Basel III requirements, fiscal policy, and economic forecasts for the year ahead. 21 39 127 Falling oil prices, government ambitions, and a diverse offering are supporting the rebirth of Iran’s tourism sector. £60
  • 2.
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  • 4. ADDRESS No. 14, 13th. Gandhi Ave. Tehran. 1517753811.Iran TEL+98(21)86757000 • FAX +98(21)88664423 • E-MAIL info@razi24.ir Things go better with Razi Insurance WWW.RAZI24.COM
  • 5. 2016 41 Dr. Ali Ashraf Afkhami, Chairman & Managing Director of Bank of Industry and Mine • Interview 44 Seyed Ahmad Taheri, CEO
of Saman Bank • Interview 45 Back in the game • Focus: International banking 46 Trade financing • B2B 47 Opening up • Forum 48 The future of growth • Review: Capital markets 50 Securities regulation • B2B 51 Capital clarity • B2B 52 Investment banks • Forum 53 Field of opportunities • Vox populi 54 A new dawn • Review: Insurance 55 Dr. Abdolnaser Hemmati, President & Head of High Council of Insurance of Bimeh Markazi Iran (Central Insurance of IR Iran) • Interview 57 Dr. Younes Mazlumi, CEO of Razi Insurance • Interview 58 Dynamic for life • B2B 6 Year in review • Iran 10 DIPLOMACY 10 The fruits of diplomacy • Review 11 HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, Former Secretary General, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) • Column 14 HE Dr. Hassan Rouhani, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran • Inside perspective 16 Johann N. Schneider-Ammann, President of the Swiss Confederation • Guest speaker 17 Jacob Zuma, President of the Republic of South Africa • Guest speaker 18 Echoes of the JCPOA • Focus: JCPOA 20 Ministerial relations • Forum 21 ECONOMY 21 Oh how Iran • Review 22 Seyed Kamal Seyed Ali, Chairman & CEO, Export Guarantee Fund of Iran (EGFI) • Column 24 David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF) • Column 25 Dr. Mohsen Jalalpour, former President of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines & Agriculture (ICCIMA) • Interview 26 Linking with the future • Focus: Vision 2025 27 Dr. Farhad Zargari, Managing Director & Chairman of Iran Foreign Investments Company (IFIC) • Interview 28 Dr. Ahmad Reza Nikkar, CEO of Atiyeh Saba Investment Co. • Interview 29 Chambers of commerce • B2B 30 Roadmap to reconnection: Iran- Europe Cooperation after the JCPOA • Roundtable 34 Treaty of trade • Focus: Chabahar free zone 35 Why Iran? • Forum 36 FINANCE 36 A swift account • Review: Banking 37 Behzad Golkar, CEO, Sina Financial & Investment Holding • Column 39 Dr. Valiollah Seif, Governor of the Central Bank of Iran • Interview 40 HE Dr. Majid Ghassemi, CEO and Vice Chairman of Bank Pasargad • Interview 28 10 In partnership with: Iran-Switzerland Chamber of Commerce German-Iranian Chamber of Industry and Commerce(AHK Iran) IRAN ‫ايران‬ ‫بازرگاني‬ ‫اتاق‬̶‫سوئيس‬ Iran – Switzerland Chamber of Commerce Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade
  • 6. THEBUSINESSYEAR4 IRAN 2016 69 80 85 59 59 ENERGY 59 Boon time • Review 60 Dr. Mohammad Kasaeian, Vice Chairman & Managing Director, Rosemond E.M.I.• Column 61 Dr. Ali Misagh, Managing Director & Chairman, Tavana Energy • Column 62 Piping hot • Focus: The pipeline network 64 Team players • B2B 65 Staying ahead • B2B 66 Dr. Bahman Salehi, CEO of SUNIR • Interview 67 Dr. Ali Hatami, Founder & Managing Partner of Hatami & Associates International Law Firm • Interview 69 INDUSTRY & MINING 69 Manufacturing tomorrow, today • Review: Industry 71 Hossein Tanhaee, Vice Chairman, GoldIran • Column 72 HE Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade • Interview 73 Dr. Mansour Moazami, Deputy Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade & Chairman of the Industrial Development & Renovation Organization of Iran (IDRO) • Interview 75 Catalin Sfrija, General Manager of Henkel Pakvash & President of Henkel Iran • Interview 76 Dr. Bahram Sobhani, CEO & Managing Director of Mobarakeh Steel Company • Interview 78 On the road • Focus: Automotive 79 Industrial applications • B2B 80 Digging deeper • Review: Mining 81 A. Amini Kafiabad, CEO, Shahid Bahonar Copper Industries Co. • Column 82 Naser Taghizadeh, Managing Director & Member of the Board of Golgohar Mining & Industrial Co. • Interview 83 Metallurgy • B2B 84 At the end of the tunnel • Focus: Steel, copper, and aluminum exports 85 TELECOMS & IT 85 Making connections • Review 87 Kasra Mohaghegh, Managing Director, Asia Telecommunications • Column 88 Seyed Iman Miri, CEO & Chairman of HiWEB • Interview 89 E-commerce • B2B 90 Thirsty for e-commerce • Focus: The emergence of e-commerce 93 TRANSPORT 93 Royal roads • Review 94 Jean-Pierre Loubinoux, General Director, International Union of Railways (UIC) • Column 96 Dr. Mohsen Pourseyed Aghaei, Vice Minister of Roads and Urban Development & Chairman of the Board and President of the Railways of the Islamic Republic of Iran (RAI) • Interview 97 An air battle for the Gulf • Focus: The aviation industry 98 Air travel • B2B 99 Mehrdad Fakher, CEO of Tipax Holding • Interview 100 Logistics • B2B 40 101 CONSTRUCTION & REAL ESTATE 101 Can we build it? • Review 103 Ali Hossein Asadi, Chairman & CEO, Diplomat Group • Column 106 Morteza Lotfi, Managing Director & Board Member of Fars & Khuzestan Cement Company (FKCC) • Interview 107 Engineering • B2B 108 Dr. Gholamreza Ansari, Chairman of the Iran Housing Investment Company (Khanehsazi) • Interview 109 Prick the bubble • Focus: Iran housing market 110 Infrastructure • B2B
  • 7. THEBUSINESSYEAR 5 MANY OF THE INTERVIEWS PUBLISHED HERE HAVE BEEN ABRIDGED. THE ORIGINAL, FULL-LENGTH INTERVIEWS CAN BE READ AT THEBUSINESSYEAR.COM 111 127 111 FOOD & AGRICULTURE 111 A package deal • Review 112 Hassan Varshochi, Managing Director, RANA Agro-Industry Corporation • Column 113 Agrifood • B2B 114 Filling the basket • Focus: Iranian food industry 114 Younes Zhaeleh, President and Chairman of the Board, Shirin Asal • Column 115 HEALTH & EDUCATION 115 Surgery now open • Review: Health 117 Dr. Seyed Amir Mohsen Ziaee, President of Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS)• Interview 118 Pharmaceuticals • B2B 119 Land of health • Focus: Health tourism 120 Research • B2B 121 Educating for the 21st century • Review: Education 123 Dr. Mahmoud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, President of Sharif University of Technology • Interview 124 Enrolled with the future • Focus: Universities 125 Professional training • B2B 127 TOURISM 127 Qom & have a look • Review 128 Amir Kazem Noormohammadi, Chairman, Dorsa Leather & Luxury • Column 130 Seyed Hassan Mousavi, CEO, Mega Pars Mall • Column 131 HE Dr. Masoud Soltanifar, President of the Iranian Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts & Tourism Organization (ICHHTO) and Vice President of the Islamic Republic of Iran • Interview 132 Aliasghar Safari, CEO & Vice Chairman of Tourism Bank • Interview 133 Dr. Ebrahim Salami, Managing Director of Tourism Holding of Social Security Organization (HEGTA) • Interview 134 Dr. Reza Samizadeh, CEO of Iran Mall Commercial Company (IMCC) • Interview 135 Tourism services • B2B 136 Holy future • Photo essay: Mashhad 138 EXECUTIVE GUIDE 138 Ground work • Review: Doing business 139 When in Iran... Editor-in-Chief Leland Rice Country Manager Cristiana Di Filippo Assistant Country Managers Ainhoa Cid Remesar, Ioana Popa Country Editor Sergio Ripollés Project Assistant Elika Shahverdi Advisor Dr. Ali Mohammad Goudarzi Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade Chief Executive Officer Ayşe Hazır Valentin Chief Operating Officer Laila Bastati Senior Editor Peter Howson Associate Editor Terry Whitlam Sub-Editors Jared Kimball, Emily Casswell, Kevin Mataraci, Shireen Nisha, Nathan T. Jefferson, Evan Phieffer Editorial Assistant Aleksandra Fabia Tugal Assistant Web Editor Belemir Ece Çolak Contributors Mark Szawlowski, Cain Day, Emily Mallis, Aidan McMahon Transcribers Susan Barrett, Heather Conover, Nikolai Davis, Gillian Dochery, Attila Pelit, Jeffrey Rogers, Jason Shaw, Deanne de Vries, Pronto Publishing Services Acting Art Director Bahar Kara Senior Designers Ceren Bettemir, Dan Le Graphic Designer Lara Nasifoğlu Acting HR Manager Burcu Yüce PR Assistant Berna Köse Operations Manager Semiha Elkıran Operations Executive Öznur Yıldız Operations Assistant Gamze Zorlu Finance Director Serpil Yaltalıer Finance Executive Janine Escobar Circulation & Marketing Director Amy Burtin Publisher Peggy Rosiak The Business Year is published by The Business Year International, Trident Chambers, P.O. Box 146, Road Town, Tortola, British Virgin Islands. Printed by Tor Ofset, Osmangazi Mahallesi. 3112. Sokak. No:2 Esenyurt, İstanbul, Türkiye. The Business Year is a registered trademark of The Business Year International, Copyright The Business Year In- ternational Inc. 2016. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievable system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopied, recorded, or otherwise without prior permission of The Business Year International Inc. The Business Year International Inc. has made every effort to ensure that the content of this publication is accu- rate at the time of printing. The Business Year In- ternational Inc. makes no warranty, representation, or undertaking, whether expressed or implied, nor does it assume any legal liability, direct or indirect, or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information contained in this publication. ISBN 978-1-908180-79-7 www.thebusinessyear.com 72
  • 8. THEBUSINESSYEAR6 Year in Review IRAN 2016 Iran awoke to a world of opportunity in early 2016, the lifting of sanctions allowing banks to reconnect to SWIFT, the country’s industrial matrix to switch back into top gear, and oil to once again leave Iranian shores. The challenge now is making a success of the brightened prospects. 6,6% -1,9% 3,8% 4,3% GDP PER CAPITA USD4,877 INFLATION 9.5% CURRENT ACCOUNT 3.83%of GDP SOURCES: IMF, WORLD BANK 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP GROWTH (%) SOURCE: WORLD BANK -6,6% 0 THE JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OFACTION(JCPOA),whichenteredintoef- fect in January 2016, brought all nuclear-related sanctions to an end, signaling huge reconcilia- tions between Iran and the West and standing, for many, as a superb example of the merits of diplomacy. Success for parliamentary support- ers of President Rouhani in February and April in legislative elections only further highlighted the popular support the government’s course of rapprochement has had, as Iranian reform- ists continue to dominate the domestic agenda. To appreciate the impact sanctions had, it is vital to take a quick look at the implications they had on GDP. Iran’s economy was a sizable USD587.2 billion back in 2012, a figure that fell sharply to USD425.326 in 2014. GDP came in at USD393.7 billion in 2015, down 7.44% YoY. This still set Iran as the second-largest economy in the MENA region, behind only Saudi Arabia. According to IMF data from 2015, Iranian GDP per capita on a PPP basis was USD17,346, plac- ing it 68th in the world between Belarus and Venezuela. Sanctions arguably hit the oil sector hardest, with oil and gas export revenues plummeting by 47% from USD118 billion in the 2011-12 fiscal year to USD63 billion in 2012-13. Post-sanc- tions, Iran has indicated it is ready to boost production back to former levels of around 4 million bpd and is looking to attract foreign in- vestment to 18 E&P blocks and 50 oil and gas projects to be completed before 2020. It would be wrong to assume the Iranian economy is based on oil alone, however. Iran differs from many of its regional peers in that its economy is roundly diverse, with services, agriculture, manufacturing, and mining all accounting for significant portions of the country’s economic output. On the fiscal front, Iran’s deficit grew from 1.2% of GDP in 2014 to 2.7% in 2015, with the current account surplus narrowing to just 0.6% of GDP in 2015 from 3.8% in 2014 due in large part to declining oil prices. The effects of lower oil prices, however, were somewhat mitigated in Iran due to structural reforms brought in to less- en the effects of lower oil revenues during the sanctions period. Indeed, Iran’s strong regula- tory environment helped to keep the economy above water in rough seas, with GDP growing 0.5% in 2015 after contraction in previous years. The Central Bank of Iran is also credited, thanks to its steadfastness in monetary policy, with reining in runaway inflation in 2015. The infla- tion rate began the year at 12.6%, down from a peak of 45.1% in October 2012. “The Central Bank managed to control the inflation rate by supporting monetary discipline and stabilizing the foreign exchange market,” Governor Dr. Valiollah Seif told TBY. But nobody could be happier about the re- moval of sanctions than Iran’s exporters. Ex- ports measured just 18.7% of GDP in 2015, one of the lowest rates worldwide. The news that, since JCPOA, trade between the EU and Iran has shot up by 43% was widely received as a sign of things to come. Indeed, the EU has been one of Iran’s stron- gest backers in recent months, with EU High Commissioner Federica Mogherini meeting with Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif in Tehran in April to discuss potential areas for cooperation. Mogherini also reiterated the EU’s support for Iran’s bid to join the WTO. “We used to be Iran’s main trading partner and we are determined to take that position again,” said Mogherini, who also spoke of the significance of Iranian oil and gas in Europe’s energy mix. A few tensions remain, however, including a per- ceived lack of enthusiasm from European banks to begin lending again in Iran. Ségolène Royal, French Minister of Ecology, expressed her frus- tration after a visit to the country with French environmental and renewable energy firms that Iran is still unable to access the financing it requires to complete projects in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, to which the country is a signatory. The reluctance could stem from a USD8.9 billion fine levied on BNP Paribas by the US for doing business with Iran. Arguably the largest development since the lifting of sanctions, however, was a US Treasury announcement granting licenses to Boeing and Airbus to sell passenger aircraft to Iran, the larg- est ever deal between the two countries since the Islamic Revolution. Challenges for the government going forward include navigating tense political developments in the region and convincing Iran’s hardline political factions that the country, and its econ- omy, are on the right course. Investors will cer- tainly be watching with interest as Iran carves a new path for itself on the global stage. ✖
  • 9. THEBUSINESSYEAR 7 SOURCES: GLOBAL ENERGY OBSERVATORY, ORGANIZA- TION FOR INVESTMENT ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE OF IRAN TURKMENISTAN AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN UAE QATAR OMAN MASHHAD QOM IMAM KHOMENI AMIRABAD SAUDI ARABIA IRAQ IRAN AZERBAIJAN GEORGIA RUSSIA ARMENIA TURKEY KUWAIT TEHRAN TABRIZ ARAK KERMANSHAH 500 KM CITY PORT AIRPORT HYDRO POWER OIL REFINERY GAS POWER ECONOMIC FREE ZONE NUCLEAR PLANT ABADAN SHIRAZ KERMAN KANGAN BUSHEHR BANDAR ABBAS CHABAHAR QESHM ISFAHAN Persian New Year, known as Nowruz, is celebrated on the vernal equinox and marks the first day of Spring. After petrol products, iron ore is the country’s largest export Iran has 10% of the world’s proven petroleum reserves Some 60% of Iranian university students are female. The election of Hassan Rouhani was a large factor in beginning the country’s nuclear negotiations with the West. UZBEKISTAN KAZAKHSTAN KISH BAHRAIN CASPIAN SEA
  • 10. THEBUSINESSYEAR8 IRAN 2016 THE BUSINESS YEAR IN IRAN T I M E L I N EJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun JAN 2016 The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verifies that Iran meets all conditions of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed on July 15, 2015. IAEA’s report clears the way for the lifting of nuclear-related economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic over the last decade. JAN 2016 In his first visit to Europe since his election in 2013, President Hassan Rouhani meets with Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, French President François Hollande, and Pope Francis. Accompanied by a 120-strong business delegation, deals worth up to USD18.4 billion are signed during the first state visit in 16 years to enhance bilateral cooperation between Europe and Iran. APR 2016 The Joint Commission of the P5+1 countries holds its first meeting after the lifting of sanctions. Vienna hosts the talks to supervise the implementation of the agreement. The meeting comes six days after EU High Representative and Vice President Federica Mogherini and six Commissioners travelled to Tehran to reinvigorate bilateral relations. MAR 2016 Iranians celebrate the arrival of spring, which marks the beginning of the Persian New Year, Nowruz. Addressing the nation, President Rouhani announces that Iran seeks to achieve 5% economic growth during the new calendar year of 1395 (2016) FEB 2016 The alliance between President Rouhani’s Moderation and Development Party and the reformists win a majority of seats in the two-round parliamentary elections. The List of Hope obtains 55 seats in the Assembly of Experts and 119 seats in the Majlis, following the second ballot held on April 29, 2016 to complete 68 of the new 290-seat parliament.
  • 11. THEBUSINESSYEAR 9Year in Review With sanctions removed, Iran stands ready to be embraced once more by the entire international business community. Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SEP 2016 The Iranian Parliament gives the green light for the government to implement new oil contracts called Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC). The new model gives foreign companies a stake in the fields and hopes to attract USD70 billion of investment to reach a daily production of 4.8 million barrels in 2021. AUG 2016 President Hassan Rouhani states that Iran’s economic growth hit 4.4% in the first quarter of the Iranian calendar year, referring to the effects of the JCPOA. Two months prior, the Central Bank of Iran announced that the year-to-date inflation rate fell to single digits in 9.5%. SEP 2016 The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) grants a license to Airbus to sell the first 17 airplanes involved in landmark deal with Iran. In January, Iran Air signed agreements to buy 118 planes from Airbus, estimated to be worth USD25 billion. MAY 2016 Iran, India and Afghanistan sign a historic trilateral agreement to develop the port of Chabahar. The three-nation pact aims to build a transport-and-trade corridor through Afghanistan that could help halve the time and cost of doing business with CIS and Europe. India will spend USD500 million to develop the port in southeastern Iran to become a regional trade hub. MAY 2016 Iran's crude exports surge to 2.6 million bpd in May, tripling the pace from November 2015. The Minister of Petroleum, Dr. Bijan Zanganeh, claims the country's oil output surpassed 3.8 million barrels per day, accounting for the largest gain from any OPEC country since the end of 2015.
  • 12. R E V I E W Diplomacy THEBUSINESSYEAR10 The implementation of the JCPOA constitutes a new chapter in the relationship between Iran and Europe. 1816 TBY talks to Johann N. Schneider-Ammann, President of the Swiss Confederation. TBY talks to Jacob Zuma, President of the Republic of South Africa. 17 S Iran is entering the post-sanctions era with a spring in its step, yet it was not an easy political ride. The country’s moderate approach of late, however, could be a sign of stronger multilateralism to come. ince January 16, when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) brought all nucle- ar-related sanctions to an end, things have been mov- ing rapidly in the direction of reconciliation between Iran and the West. Domestical- ly, reformists have been on the offensive: parliamentary elections in February and April witnessed major gains for the reform-minded fac- tion that supports President Hassan Rouhani in his long- term endeavor to mend fenc- es with the West through, among other things, much deeper economic ties. Inter- nationally, the government appears to be having one diplomatic success after an- other. In April, EU High Commis- sioner Federica Mogherini met with Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif in Tehran to discuss future areas of “potential engagement and cooperation” in economic relations, the environment, energy and civil nuclear co- operation, humanitarian aid, Since the JCPOA went into effect, trade between Iran and the EU is up by 43%, European banks are working with Iranian counterparts for the first time in years, and sales of Iranian oil have nearly reached their pre- sanctions rate of 4 million bpd; but challenges remain before Iran can take its place in the sun. THE FRUITS OF DIPLOMACY Image: IRAN DAILY transport, science, and cul- ture. Firstly, she reiterated the EU’s support for Iran’s bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). “We used to be Iran’s main trad- ing partner and we are deter- mined to take that position again,” said Mogherini. Sec- ondly, she stressed the im- portance of making Iranian oil and gas a stronger compo- nent of Europe’s energy mix. This will not only help diver- sify and stabilize Europe’s energy security, she said, but offer crucial opportuni- ties for European technology and expertise to facilitate the development of the Iranian market. These diplomatic success- es continued in July, when Mogherini met with Iranian Vice President Ali Akbar Sale- hi in Brussels to commemo- rate the one-year anniversary of the historic JCPOA agree- ment and reiterate the EU’s commitment to hastening the progress and its (expect- ed) benefits. Dismayed that many European banks were still refusing to do business with Iran for fear of backlash
  • 13. THEBUSINESSYEAR 11Diplomacy *Readthefullinterviewatthebusinessyear.com from the US Treasury, Mogherini sought to re- assure her Iranian counterpart—and Europe- an financial institutions—that they could and should engage with Iran. Most importantly, she announced the opening of a permanent EU delegation in Tehran. A month later, this success was buoyed by the multi-city visit to Iran of Ségolène Royal, French Minister of Ecology, who promised strong French cooperation in combatting cli- mate change in Iran—a problem that has be- gun to seriously affect much of the country. Traveling with senior business figures from French environmental and renewable ener- gy firms, Royal promised her Iranian coun- terparts that France would work closely with them to resolve issues related to water short- age, pollution, and energy efficiency in Iran. She also addressed the failure of major French (and European) banks to start lending in Iran since the JCPOA took effect. “We will find a solution. Either we will work with non-French banks... or we will mobilize the public invest- ment bank,” she mused. “Or why not the Eu- ropean Investment Bank?” Given the Paris Climate Agreement’s calls for investment in green technology, Royal said it was “com- pletely contradictory” that Iran, a signatory of the landmark agreement, now cannot access the capital needed to do so. Though the US government has tried to reassure French (and other) banks they will not face prosecution for working with Iran, many have been wary ever since BNP Paribas was fined USD8.9 billion in 2009 by the US Treasury for doing just that. Nonetheless, the crowning achievements of Iranian diplomacy seem to have come in September on the sidelines of the UN Gener- al Assembly. The first day President Rouhani was in New York, the US Treasury announced that it was finally granting licenses to Boeing and Airbus to sell passenger aircraft to Iran, the single largest trade agreement between the two countries since the creation of the Islamic Republic. A day later, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif held the first ministerial talks with a Canadian counterpart, Foreign Minis- ter Stephane Dion, since Ottawa severed dip- lomatic ties with Tehran in 2012. This led to the release from prison of Canadian-Iranian academic Homa Hoodfar, in the custody of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) since Feb- ruary 2016. It was also during Rouhani’s visit to New York that High Commissioner Mogherini re- iterated the EU’s commitment to “go the ex- tra mile [to] continue working for the Iranian people.” With great enthusiasm, she celebrat- ed how “political will, determination, and commitment” had proven that “even the most difficult political issues can be solved through dialog and diplomacy.” Since the JCPOA went HE ABDALLA S. EL-BADRI Former Secretary General, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Since the JCPOA agreement, Iran has increased its production and exports of oil. How important are Iran’s supplies to the global oil market? Iran’s full return to the oil market is a welcome one. Iran is an important country, a founding mem- ber of OPEC, and a key participant in the global oil market. It has vast hydrocarbons potential, ex- cellent manpower, and its production and exports remain integral to the future stability of the oil market. The world will need more oil in the future. Oil demand is expected to be close to 110mbpd by 2040—an increase of around 17mbpd from current demand—and Iran will undoubtedly play an im- portant role in helping ensure this demand is met. How can cooperation between multinationals and local companies help develop projects within Iran? With the third-largest oil reserves and the second-largest proven gas reserves in the world, Iran has tremendous opportunities for coopera- tion between its companies and multinationals. There is clearly significant interest from a wide range of international companies. How this evolves is a matter for the Iranian government and the Oil Ministry, but its long-term develop- ment will undoubtedly depend on greater coop- eration with international oil companies.*
  • 14. THEBUSINESSYEAR12 IRAN 2016 into effect, trade between Iran and the EU is up by 43%, European banks are working with Iranian counterparts for the first time in years, and sales of Iranian oil have nearly reached their pre-sanctions rate of 4 million barrels per day. As in much of the preceding year, Rouhani’s deft diplomatic achievements were celebrated in capitals throughout the Western world. So much so that his most powerful op- ponents seem no longer to be in Washington or Tel Aviv, but in Tehran. Though referred to by many as the “Dip- lomat Sheikh” for his masterly negotiating skills, President Rouhani has also come un- der scrutiny in certain quarters for having too conciliatory an approach to the US. To be sure, the parliamentary elections in February were an unofficial referendum of sorts on the pace and progress of Iran’s diplomatic volte- face before the world. And though moderate and reform-minded candidates who back the president’s diplomatic policies received the single largest block of votes in both the pre- liminary and run-off elections (143 seats to the hardliners’ 86 of a total 290), certain lead- ing government figures openly campaigned against Rouhani and his moderates on the grounds that their rapprochement with the West was undermining fundamental aspects of the Islamic Republic. In a speech in the holy city of Mashhad in March, Ayatollah Khamenei told a crowd to reject the spurious “two-track” idea proffered by American policymakers that Iran must ei- ther “constantly remain under US pressures and problems associated with these pres- sures” or “come to terms with the US” and, in so doing, back down from certain “positions, principles, and red lines.” The domino effect of too much rapprochement with the US, he warned, would lead to a crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic itself. “If we step back in the face of the US, the enemy will move for- ward step by step and we will reach a point where the Islamic Republic of Iran will be devoid of content,” he forewarned. “Only its appearance will survive.” Negotiations leading up to the lifting of sanctions occured at the top level As Iran enters 2017, it does so on a soberly optimistic footing. Relations with the West are the best they have been in 37 years, trade with Europe is up by nearly 50%; and relations with the Russian Federation, the Central Asian republics, Armenia, and Oman could scarcely be better. Image: IRAN DAILY
  • 15. THEBUSINESSYEAR 13Diplomacy As if to bring these thoughts to life, the IRGC fired off several ballistic missiles on March 8 in a military drill in wanton disregard of UN Security Council resolutions to the contrary. The message was clear: whatever Rouhani’s popularity in Brussels and Washington—and no matter his parliamentary victories in Feb- ruary—he would still have to contend with forces in the government wary of moving too quickly. Thus the real question that arises in 2016 is whether or not the JCPOA will be a “one-off” engagement with the West. To be fair, Khamenei repeated Ségolène Royal’s complaint that the US was dragging its feet in lifting banking restrictions and re- turning pre-1979 Iranian assets. But for the Americans’ bad cop, the EU’s good cop has ever been there: asked in New York if the IRGC’s firing of ballistic missiles would have any effect on reconciliation between EU and Iran, Mogherini said: “There are other politi- cal considerations I can make, but not related to JCPOA.” Despite its diplomatic triumphs in the West, Iran has had a harder time convincing its neighbors of its prerogatives. Its relation- ship with Turkey has been repeatedly strained by both countries’ sharply opposing positions on the Syrian civil war, most recently by Teh- ran’s critical support for Baghdad’s plans to retake Mosul with largely Shia and Kurdish militias. Meanwhile, Iran’s ongoing rivalry with Saudi Arabia has only been exacerbated by unresolved tensions surrounding to the Hajj stampede of 2015 in which at least 464 Iranians lost their lives, to say nothing of the countries’ ongoing disputes in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. Yet there have been regional successes. First is the flurry of trade deals Iran passed with Oman in 2016. A stalwart ally in helping get JCPOA passed—even serving as a secret conduit between US and Iranian authori- ties—Oman is now reaping the benefits of its loyal friendship through heavy Iranian invest- ment there. This friendship will also tighten the Central Asian-Iranian-Omani trade nexus that Tehran has been pushing for under the Ashgabat Agreement since 2011, which hopes to greatly expand infrastructure and trade between the original four signatories, Iran, Oman, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and two newcomers, India and Kazakhstan. As Iran enters 2017, it does so on a sober- ly optimistic footing. Relations with the West are the best they have been in 37 years; trade with Europe is up by nearly 50%, and rela- tions with the Russian Federation, the Central Asian republics, Armenia, and Oman could scarcely be better. Of the remaining threats to the country’s complete normalization with the world, two should come as no surprise. Namely, ongoing instability in the Middle East, and Iran’s role therein; and the threat of renewed American sanctions. Yet as a sage once said, all politics is local. Thus the third and possibly biggest impediment to bringing Iran back into the international fold. Rouhani will have to be many things to many people in the coming year. ✖ Iranian and French leaders at a political, cultural, and economic agreements signing ceremony Image: IRAN DAILY
  • 16. THEBUSINESSYEAR14 IRAN 2016 I N S I D E P E R S P E C T I V E Fifteen years have passed since the painful terrorist attack in New York, a disaster whose human dimensions moved the entire world. On that day, no one imagined that this occur- rence would lead to larger disasters, resulting in a devastating war in the Middle East and the spread of insecurity across the globe. This war has sown the seeds of borderless terrorism ev- erywhere on earth. Today, the most pressing question as to why we are facing such a situa- tion should be on the agenda of international forums. We need to find out which approach- es, policies, and erroneous actions paved the way for the spread of insecurity throughout the world. And what would be the picture the world 15 years from now. Security has become a global problem at a time when major powers are mainly focusing on advancing different methods of repression and military intervention under the pretext of creating a secure environment for their citi- zens. The genesis of borderless violent extrem- ism and terrorism could be attributed to the security strategies developed by major powers in the past 15 years. The main lesson to learn from the analysis of this trend is that security in one region at the cost of insecurity in others would not only be impossible but it could also lead to more insecurity everywhere. The terrorists even went as far as claiming to have established States in the Levant, Iraq, and Libya. More unfortunately, they hide their nefarious intents behind religious literature, thus turning a compassionate religion into an instrument of violence and terror by spreading extremist and Takfiri propaganda. The century that began with terror and vi- olence in New York should not continue with hostile competitions and expanding conflicts in the Middle East. Today in fact, the discourse of hatred and violence in the Middle East and North Africa is spreading with an astonishing speed, and this region is stuck in a web of the most savage and HE Dr. Hassan Rouhani was born on the November 12, 1948 in Sorkhe (Semnan province, Iran). He is a lawyer and a Muslim cleric. Prior to his election as President of the Islamic Republic of Iran in August 2013, Dr. Rouhani was the Representative of the Supreme Leader to the Supreme National Security Council and a Member of the Assembly of Experts, being the head of the Political and Social Committee. He holds a PhD in constitutional law from Glasgow Caledonian University (UK) and has published around 100 books and scientific papers. BIO HE Dr. Hassan Rouhani, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, on his hope for peace in the Middle East and optimism for the full implementation of JCPOA. working on PRINCIPLE destructive policies. Millions of Syrians are stranded in deserts and high seas, and hun- dreds of thousands of them are subjected to violent deaths. Iraqis of every ethnic group are concerned about their territorial integrity and the future of their homeland. The defenseless people of Yemen are subjected to daily aerial bombardment, and Afghanistan, following de- cades of occupation and atrocity, is yet to find comfort from suffering, violence, and terror. The oppressed Palestinians are still afflicted by a web of apartheid policies and atrocities set by the usurping Zionist regime. Undoubtedly, if the region is to reverse the current dangerous trend into one towards development and stability, certain countries must stop bombing their neighbors, and aban- don supporting Takfiri terrorist groups, and, while accepting responsibility, try to compen- sate for past mistakes. If the Saudi government is serious about its vision for development and regional security, it must cease and desist from divisive policies, spread of hate ideology and trampling upon the rights of neighbours, ac- cept its responsibility for the protection of the lives and dignity of pilgrims, and construct its relations with the nations in the region on the basis of mutual respect and accountability. The future of our region rests on dealing with fundamental challenges such as securi- ty crises, due to the inefficiency and the lack of legitimacy of governments. We will not be able to combat criminal and terrorist networks without genuine democracy and without a real participatory approach at the national and transnational levels. Iran's principled approach calls for con- structive partnership with our neighbors with a view to establishing an enduring order based on shared security and efforts aimed at en- hancing the development of the countries in the region and mutually beneficial economic cooperation. To uproot violence in the region, there is no choice but to focus on promoting
  • 17. THEBUSINESSYEAR 15Diplomacy democracy, citizenship rights, and economic development. Iran opposes any kind of sectarianism and any attempt to promote religious gaps. The Muslim people, be they Shias or Sunnis, have lived together for centuries in harmony and mutual respect, and will continue to do so. Attempts to turn religious dissimilarities into tense confrontations are rooted in vested in- terests of certain countries, which try to hide their quest for power covered in religious slo- gans. Iran considers it imperative to preserve the territorial integrity of states, keep nation- al borders intact, enhance peoples' right to self-determination, and uphold the principle of refraining from the threat or use of force. We also reiterate the need to use diplomacy for conflict resolution. Despite today's difficulties, I have hope in tomorrow. I have no doubt that we can prevail through prudence and wisdom. The experi- ence acquired through dialogue between Iran and the group of 5+1 and the fruition of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are indicative of the success that we could achieve through moderation, constructive interaction and the promotion of dialogue; a policy that brought a long, complicated, and unnecessary crisis to an end by adopting a win-win approach. This deal confirmed the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program through devising confidence-building mecha- nisms, closing the so-called "possible military dimension" file and reinstating Iran's right to develop a peaceful nuclear program. This deal also put an end to unfounded concerns and led to the removal of the brutal sanctions against Iran. Beyond the nuclear file, however, the JCPOA contains important lessons for resolving com- plicated international problems. This deal is not only a political agreement; it also rep- resents a creative approach and method for constructive interaction with a view to peace- fully resolving crises and challenges. To learn lessons from the JCPOA and put them towards improving international relations, we should never forget that pressures, sanctions and il- legal threats, which sought to fully dismantle Iran’s enrichment program, were all defeated. And today, the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have formally accepted Iran's peaceful nucle- ar program. The US is fully aware that JCPOA constitutes a recognized multilateral agreement, and any failure on the part of the US in implementing it would constitute an international wrongful act and would be objected to by the international community. Any failure in implementing the JCPOA will further erode the credibility of the US in the world. The lack of compliance with the JCPOA on the part of the US in the past sev- eral months represents a flawed approach that should be rectified forthwith. Unfortunately, such illegal actions are not unprecedented: the latest case in point is the US Supreme Court ruling to seize billions of dollars of the Iranian people's assets. This experience demonstrated that the Zionist pressure groups could go as far as having US Congress pass indefensible leg- islations forcing the highest American judicial institution to violate pre-emptory norms of in- ternational law. With God's help, the Iranian people's en- durance and the increasing participation of Iran's international partners from different re- gions, only eight months after the removal of the cruel nuclear-related sanctions, the econ- omy of Iran, as the most secure and most prof- itable investment destination in the region, is showing clear improvement. Iran's economic growth rate surpassed 4% in spring 2016, the inflation rate dropped to single digits, and Iran has come close to pre-sanction level of oil pro- duction and export. All in all, we are witness- ing more development in the economic, scien- tific and technological fields in Iran. Iran is one of the rare oil-producing coun- tries that could offset the shocking impact of the sharp slide in oil price in 2014. We are in- tent on strengthening economic stability and consistency, thus encouraging more invest- ment, through economic reforms and fiscal and financial discipline, while preserving our low-inflation achievement. The economic growth is to increase to around 5% by the end of 2016. Currently, based on all domestic and international prediction, Iran is enjoying one the highest growth rates among the oil-pro- ducing countries. Despite all hardships, I deeply believe that moderation will prevail over extremism, peace will triumph over violence, enlightenment will overcome ignorance, and finally justice will rise above injustice. What is important is that belief, hope and efforts are towards realizing peace and justice and there is no doubt that the Almighty will assist all those who endeavor towards peace, justice and moderation. ✖ Iran is one of the rare oil-producing countries that could offset the shocking impact of the sharp slide in oil price in 2014. We are intent on strengthening economic stability and consistency, thus encouraging more investment, through economic reforms and fiscal and financial discipline, while preserving our low-inflation achievement.
  • 18. THEBUSINESSYEAR16 IRAN 2016 G U E S T S P E A K E R What is your assessment on the historic relationship be- tween Switzerland and Iran? Switzerland has longstand- ing, friendly relations with Iran based on dialog on all matters of common con- cern and mutual respect. The existing friendship trea- ty between our countries dates back to more than 140 years and is a telling sign of the quality of our ties. Even during difficult times, Swit- zerland was always present in Iran. Our policy of dialog, the culture of listening, respect, and searching for common ground has created a rela- tion of continuity and trust between our countries. Swit- zerland’s protecting power mandate for the US in Iran, which we have fulfilled since 1980, is equally based on this culture. In this same spirit, Switzerland has always sup- ported a diplomatic solution regarding Iran’s nuclear pro- gram, both in substance and by hosting negotiations. We are proud that the adoption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took place in Geneva and the gen- eral framework of the current agreement was concluded on April 2, 2015 in Lausanne. On a personal level, I had the honor and pleasure to experi- ence and reaffirm this bond several times myself in meet- ings with representatives of Johann N. Schneider- Ammann has been the President of the Swiss Confederation since January 2016. Prior to assuming the presidential office, he was the Vice- President of Switzerland from January 2015 to December 2015. Before taking over as Head of the Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research (EAER) on November 2010, Schneider- Ammann was a member of the National Council of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) for 11 years. He was born in 1952 and has a degree in electrical engineering from the ETH Zurich. Before becoming member of the Federal Council, he was President and Delegate of Ammann Group. BIO TBY talks to Johann N. Schneider-Ammann, President of the Swiss Confederation, on the two countries’ historic relationship, integrating Iran into the global financial network, and supporting regional stability. partners IN TIME the Islamic Republic of Iran. In February 2016, I was the first-ever Swiss President to visit Tehran, where I was wel- comed with the famous Ira- nian hospitality and warmth by my counterpart, President Hassan Rouhani, as well as by the Supreme Leader, Seyyed Ali Khamenei. Both countries have expressed willingness to boost cooper- ation. What are the potential areas of cooperation between Switzerland and Iran in this new era for the country? Together with President Rou- hani, we adopted a compre- hensive road map covering 12 areas of cooperation. One important part of it deals with political consultations, in- cluding on regional security. We have also resumed our dialog on human rights issues and started consultations on legal and judicial matters, with a first round in Swit- zerland. Other areas include tourism, transportation, ag- riculture, and completing economic and financial dia- log. In the field of science, re- search, and technology, I see high potential, as both of our countries have highly qual- ified people and host some renowned scientific institu- tions. Fostering direct coop- eration between universities and scientific institutions proves to be a promising way forward. The activities since the conclusion of this coop- eration program on February 27, 2016 have been impres- sive; we have welcomed sev- eral high-level delegations from different ministries and institutions in Switzerland, and many Swiss business- people and government rep- resentatives have visited Iran since then. Seven months after the signing of the JCPOA, big European banks remain reluctant to han- dle Iranian payments. How can Switzerland help Iran return to the international banking sys- tem? Switzerland welcomes the reintegration of Iran into the global financial system after the implementation of the JCPOA. As part of the road- map to strengthen bilateral relations, it has thus estab- lished a financial dialog with Iran. Within the scope of this dialog, Switzerland supports Iran in its efforts to imple- ment international stan- dards, such as in the area of anti-money laundering and banking regulation, and en- gages on challenges remain- ing for payments, transac- tions, and trade financing in Iran. What is your opinion on the stabilizing role Iran can play in the Middle East and its bilat- eral relations with neighboring countries? Iran is a key player in the re- gion. A rapprochement be- tween Tehran and Riyadh would obviously help sta- bilize the region. In view of the good relations that Swit- zerland maintains with both countries, we are committed to supporting this process. Iran has already demonstrat- ed its positive influence in the region by promoting the need for a trilateral humanitarian dialog format with Syria and Switzerland. So far, several rounds have been held with the objective of improving humanitarian assistance for all Syrians in need. This dia- log is complementary to and reinforces ongoing dialogs by other humanitarian actors on the ground. ✖
  • 19. THEBUSINESSYEAR 17Diplomacy G U E S T S P E A K E R How would you assess your visit to Iran and meeting with President Hassan Rouhani in April 2016? The purpose and strategic objective of the visit I under- took from April 23-25 to the Islamic Republic of Iran was aimed at elevating bilater- al political, economic, and person-to-person relations between the two countries into a substantive strategic partnership that will bene- fit both countries and their peoples. To this end, my visit reaffirmed the South African government’s unwavering support for the people and government of Iran as they enter the post-sanctions pe- riod. We agreed with Presi- dent Rouhani that we need to translate the strong relations that exist between our coun- tries into tangible projects, particularly in trade, invest- ment, and economic sectors. Indeed, during that visit, we signed eight MoUs ranging from energy to investment to Jacob Zuma became an active member of the African National Congress (ANC) in the 1950s. He was arrested in 1963 and sentenced to 10 years imprisonment on Robben Island. In 1973, he continued his activities in exile in southern African countries. In 1999, Zuma was appointed Deputy President of the Republic and assisted former President Nelson Mandela as Burundi peace mediator. He was inaugurated as President of the Republic for his first term in 2009 and assumed his second term in office in 2014. His priority during this second term is to mobilize society behind the 2030 Vision outlined in the National Development Plan, the country’s socioeconomic development blueprint. BIO TBY talks to Jacob Zuma, President of the Republic of South Africa, on his recent visit to Tehran, boosting economic growth, and Iran’s role as a trade partner for African countries. SOUTH by MIDDLE EAST insurance that will serve as a catalyst to fast track econom- ic and trade relations. We also agreed to set up a special high-level mechanism to re- alize this goal. Both sides have expressed their willingness to boost bilat- eral ties. What are the possible main areas of cooperation be- tween South Africa and Iran? There are vast areas wherein we could potentially coop- erate, but for the immedi- ate future we have agreed to work together to create an institutional framework that will allow for the free move- ment of goods and services between our countries, par- ticularly in financial services, mining, energy, and tourism. A number of business proj- ects in various sectors are also in the pipeline. Since my visit, a number of de- partments, including trade and industry as well as the private sector, from both South Africa and Iran have begun negotiations in hopes of laying a solid foundation for trade. Some of those ne- gotiations have reached their final stages, and companies from both sides are ready to conclude deals. All these are part of a long-term strategic plan to strengthen bilateral economic relations. We have also emphasized the need to cooperate at the multilateral level, especially on issues of mutual interest. South Africa and Iran share the view that there is a need to transform global institutions, to make them more equitable, just, people centered, and devel- opment oriented. Following the nuclear agreement, we expect Iran to play a leading role in the region, especially in contributing positively to finding lasting solutions to regional challenges. How will this new relationship between South Africa and Iran boost economic growth in both countries? The relationship between South Africa and Iran is not new. Iran was South Africa’s top trading partner in the re- gion before the imposition of unilateral sanctions. As coun- tries that are almost at the same developmental stage, the economic relations that we seek to re-establish with Iran are based on equitable trade. Those relations will be based on state-to-state co- operation, business-to-busi- ness engagements, and people-to-people relations. During my visit, we identified a number of sectors where there are huge opportuni- ties, including oil, gas, pet- rochemical products, min- ing services and technology, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, and heavy industry, as well the ex- port of agricultural products such as citrus fruit and red meat to Iran by South Africa. What is the importance of Iran as a trade partner for African countries? Iran is a highly diversified and sophisticated energy giant with a great record in broad-based development. We are pleased that Iran is working on an Africa strate- gy to increase its profile and involvement on the conti- nent and we look forward to a strong Africa-Iran develop- ment partnership emerging in the near future. Of course, we agree with Iranians that South Africa is the ideal stra- tegic entry point for Iran to access the African market. South Africa is also of the view that Iran is an avenue for South Africa’s export prod- ucts into the Middle East. This is especially important given South Africa’s econom- ic diversification strategy, as we confront the challenges posed by the international economic climate. ✖
  • 20. THEBUSINESSYEAR18 IRAN 2016 F O C U S J C P O A IRAN WAS A HUGE USD42 BILLION trading partner of the EU prior to the imposi- tion of international sanctions. Most imports coming from Iran were energy related, while exports were mainly machinery, transport equipment, and chemicals. During the sanc- tions, the European bloc, once Iran’s top trad- ing partner and its second-biggest oil custom- er, saw imports decrease by 86% and exports decrease by 26%, with the oil trade coming to a complete halt. Since the beginning of negotiations, Euro- pean countries took the diplomatic lead and played a critical role in the efforts to reach an agreement.France,Germany,andtheUK,along with China, Russia, and the US, formed the P5+1 group, which joined the EU in its intention of re- storing ties with Iran. After almost two years of arduous negotiations, the signing of the JCPOA carries the promotion of EU-Iran relations in or- der to step back to the pre-sanctions era. To capitalize on the historic nuclear deal, President Hassan Rouhani paid a visit to Italy, the Vatican, and France in an important bid to rebuild relations with Europe. Deals worth nearly USD45 billion were struck during the Iranian president’s four-day visit after the lift- ing of sanctions. Italy, which was Iran’s largest European trade partner, agreed to cooperate in various sectors, ranging from steel to ship- ECHOES OF THE JCPOA The implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) constitutes a new chapter in the relationship between Iran and Europe, a pair that had, before sanctions, enjoyed a long tradition of cultural and economic ties. building. Italian metal industry firm Danieli signed a USD6 billion contract to supply heavy machinery and equipment to Iran, while oil and gas contractor Saipem agreed to a USD4 billion deal to revamp and upgrade the Pars Shiraz and Tabriz oil refineries. Two months later, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi visited Tehran at the head of a 250-strong political and economic delegation, making him the first major Western figure to travel to Iran since sanctions were lifted. After Rome and Paris, Brussels is also willing to re-engage with Tehran. Last April, the EU and the Islamic Republic agreed to boost trade to USD30 billion over the next two years. High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, Federica Mogherini, visited Iran with another seven EU commis- sioners. They announced a program of coop- eration with a view of opening an EU delega- tion in the Iranian capital. The two sides have strived to strengthen bilateral collaboration to enhance trade and investment in a wide range of sectors, such as agriculture, transport, en- ergy, science, and education. The EU will also support Iran in its attempt to become a mem- ber of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The agreement is expected to have a signifi- cant impact on both the economy of Iran and European markets. Leveraging its power as the world’s largest trading bloc, Europe is seeking the favor of a country with nearly 10% of global oil reserves and 18% of natural gas reserves. In March, an oil tanker covered the voyage from Iran to Europe for the first time since sanctions were lifted. According to the Ministry of Petro- leum of Iran, the route will carry some 2 mil- lion bpd. Oil giant Total signed a contract with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to buy as many as 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Technology and investment from global integrated oil companies are expected to increase capacity from Iran’s oil fields and refineries. The economic impact of a partial lifting of sanctions extends beyond the energy sector. European consumer-oriented companies are looking for an opportunity in a country with a population of 81 million. The development of tourism and converting Tehran into a regional financial hub are other reasons why European officials are determined to clear a path toward restored commercial relations. ✖ China France Germany Russia UK USA (P5+1) the European Union Iran Countries involved
  • 21. THEBUSINESSYEAR 19Diplomacy THE JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OF ACTION (JCPOA) IS THE CULMINATION OF 20 MONTHS OF NEGOTIATIONS TO ENSURE THAT IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM ABIDES BY INTERNATIONAL NON-PROLIFERATION NORMS. EFFECTIVELY, IT HAS LIFTED MULTILATERAL AND NATIONAL SANCTIONS AND HAS ALLOWED IRAN TO RESUME TRADE AND REBUILD POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD. November 24, 2013 JPOA, the P5+1 agrees to provide limited and temporary sanctions relief to Iran. European bloc saw Iranian imports decrease by 86% and exports shrink by 26% September 8, 2015 The US Senate supports the agreement. Three days later, the House of Representatives rejects the accord in a symbolic vote that had no consequences for the implementation of the deal. USD4 billion deal with Italian Saipem to upgrade the Pars Shiraz and Tabriz oil refineries October 13, 2015 The Majlis (Iranian Parliament) approves the JCPOA. USD6 billion contract with Italian metal firm Danieli to supply heavy machinery October 18, 2015 Adoption day: All parties state that they have taken the preparatory steps to bring the deal into effect. 2 million bpd of oil to Europe January 16, 2016 Implementation day: After the IAEA confirmed that Iran meets the require- ments under the JCPOA, all nuclear sanctions are lifted by the UN, the EU and the US. Total to buy 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) July 14, 2015 Finalization day: All parties agree to a landmark comprehensive nuclear agreement endorsed by the UN Security Council. This sets into motion the lifting of certain EU sanctions, including those prohibiting the purchase of Iranian oil. USD45 billion in deals made on a 4-day trip by President Hassan Rouhani to Italy, the Vatican, and France SOURCE: TBY RESEARCH A HISTORIC DEAL
  • 22. THEBUSINESSYEAR20 IRAN 2016 F O R U M Thecontentonthispageistakenfromexclusiveinterviews.Readthefullversionsatthebusinessyear.com MARINA KALJURAND Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Estonia HE ENG. ALI BIN MASOUD AL SUNAIDY Minister of Commerce and Industry, Sultanate of Oman A s a member state of the EU, Es- tonia is interested in developing economic relations with Iran in a broader context. After the successful con- clusion of the nuclear talks last July and the subsequent implementation of the agreement reached, Estonia is willing to use the opportunities offered by the EU’s economic environment also in its relations with Iran. There are opportunities to be explored in several fields, including ICT. Estonia has made some progress in devel- oping e-governance and e-services, and we are ready to share our experience. Another potential field for cooperation is logistics, due to the geographical position of Estonia and Iran, both being situated in the cross- points of trade routes and transit corridors. Estonia’s position in northeast Europe in the immediate proximity to Scandi- navia offers particular opportunities for the transit sector, including establishing distribution or production centers. There are modern transport solutions and ports in Estonia that are best suited for fast and reliable service. In addition, the Estonian food industry offers high-quality produc- tion on international markets, especially milk and dairy products, meat and meat products, fish and fish products, berries, and honey. We are also ready to offer our products to the Iranian market. I ran is a close market with great opportunities for our “Made in Oman” chemicals and building materials and it is also a long-term source of natural gas, minerals, and fresh food items. Therefore, trade opportunities with Iran are tremendous. Traditionally, the GCC coun- tries have traded with Iran, but the trade volume with Oman has been rather modest and, therefore, there is great potential for growth. Oman can provide Iranian com- panies with a fast link for their exports and imports with the world through the nearly developed facilities at the ports of Sohar, Salalah, and Duqm, but an Iran-based busi- ness can trade directly with the world and does not have to rely only on Omani ports or airports. We have to offer world-class efficiency and handling speed in order to route some of that trade through Oman. Iran today needs to expand its oil and gas production capabilities, power generation, telecommunication, petrochemicals, and construction. Oman has relevant experi- ence in all these sectors. For example, Oman has reformed electricity and privatized its generation in 2004, and we are proud of the advancements we have made in this sector. Iran also needs to expand in communica- tions, and the two countries are connected via a number of sea fiber-optic lines that fa- cilitate information flow between Iran and the rest of the world. I ran’s reintroduction into the glob- al economy following the lifting of UN sanctions is a game-changer in regional economic and security affairs. As such, this emerging trend assures a great place in the priority list of its foreign policy strategy toward the Middle East. In 2016, the discussions with our Iranian counterparts during some ensuing visits have stressed trade and investment, where both sides pledged to work toward increasing two-way trade levels to over USD3 billion, which is several-fold higher than our current figures. As a country with huge oil and gas potential, Iranian cooperation with Thailand will be driven by the energy sector, while innovation and development through scientific cooper- ation will also be focused. This could lead to technological breakthroughs in a number of fields, including the biotech and agro indus- tries. We should not lose sight of agriculture, which is another important sector, with rice exports and fisheries at the top of the menu. In many ways we are exploring fresh op- portunities with new and existing partners, including in the Middle East. We are also in- tensifying cooperation and engagement with our friends and partners around the world to address common challenges that we face. All of this is very much in the longstanding tradition of Thailand’s open diplomacy and constructive engagement in the internation- al community that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs practices and promotes. MINISTERIAL RELATIONS Ministers represent important connections between the governments of Iran and other countries around the world. DON PRAMUDWINAI Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of Thailand
  • 23. THEBUSINESSYEAR 21 R E V I E W Economy Foreign companies with a longstanding presence in Iran are poised to benefit following the lifting of sanctions. 3527 TBY talks to Dr. Farhad Zargari, Managing Director & Chairman of Iran Foreign Investments Company (IFIC). TBY partnered with the German- Iranian Chamber of Commerce to host a roundtable with banking and industry leaders. 30 I With the severe sanctions that led to a national economic recession a thing of the past, Iran enters a new era of great economic potential. t is no rare occur- rence in the areas of modern-day Iran for the fortunes of the many societies that have called the region home to seemingly change on a dime as if by dramatic intervention. Since the country’s Islamic Revolution of 1979, when the regime of Western-backed Mohammad Reza Shah Pahla- vi was replaced with the theo- cratic government of its cur- rentform,theIslamicRepublic of Iran has not had a particu- larly easy time partaking in the increasingly globalized mod- ern economy while retaining a firm position on defining the contours of its own socio-po- litical identity. Harsh econom- ic and diplomatic sanctions put in place between 2012 and 2013 triggered a severe recession that saw the loss of roughly 27.57% of the nation’s economic output, with GDP falling from USD587.209 bil- lion in 2012 to USD425.326 bil- lion in 2014. Despite the crip- pling burden of the sanctions, Iran’s estimated USD393.7 billion GDP in 2015—down 7.44% YoY from 2014—made it the second-largest economy The lifting of economic sanctions against Iran has placed the attention of spectators and participants alike on the next moves the country will take in this ever-so-crucial moment in its own genesis. OH HOW IRANin the MENA region, trailing only Saudi Arabia, while its 79.1 million-strong population makes it the second-largest country in the region behind Egypt. Though GDP per capita in Iran, which stands at approx- imately USD17,365 at inter- national purchasing power parity, has long outpaced the regional average, its country ranking fell in the World Eco- nomic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Re- port (GCR) to 76th, down two spots from 74th in the 2015- 2016 edition of the report. While the direct role played by the state in managing its commanding heights and the central importance of the local hydrocarbon sector is similar to numerous MENA economies, Iran’s differs from many of its regional peers in the level of diversification. Its GDP is supported by services, agriculture, and manufactur- ing and mining, all accounting for significant portions of the country’s economic output. According to an annual report from the Central Bank of Iran, the services sector contribut- ed 1.5% to GDP growth in the Image: Iran Daily
  • 24. THEBUSINESSYEAR22 IRAN 2016 SEYED KAMAL SEYED ALI Chairman & CEO, Export Guarantee Fund of Iran (EGFI) What are the most important sectors in Iran’s economy for EGFI? Oil is certainly the most im- portant sector, and we need to continue to ensure that we can export and sell our oil competi- tively around the world. Banking is the second most important sector, followed by insurance, shipping, and automotive. In terms of export markets, during the sanctions we did not have any problems exporting certain pe- troleum products. Now, we sell a great deal of goods and products to Europe. We also export food items like pistachios and saffron, a considerable part of which is exported to Europe, our largest market. What investments have you made abroad? We have a power plant in Tajikistan worth more than USD350 million. We also have investments in Sri Lanka worth USD450 million. In Armenia we have a USD100 million power plant project and similar projects in Senegal and Cuba. In Iraq we developed more than 25 projects in the last three years worth more than USD1 billion, including the new Iraqi parliament. Those projects are mainly power plants and construction projects, espe- cially dams, stadiums, roads, and housing. Many Iranian contrac- tors can now compete globally and are active in many neighbor- ing countries.* *Readthefullinterviewatthebusinessyear.com 2013/2014 fiscal year, while manufacturing and mining contributed 1.3% and the oil sector add- ed a further 0.5%, making them the three largest contributors to economic growth. The 17th-largest country in the world by area, Iran sits atop a wealth of hydrocarbon resources, with the world’s fourth-largest proven crude oil reservesandsecond-largestnaturalgasreserves. The state budget, and in turn a sizable portion of overall economic activity, still relies heavily on hydrocarbon revenues. This has exposed the Iranian economy to a great deal of volatility in recent years. In large part due to declining oil prices, the country’s fiscal deficit increased from 1.2% of GDP in 2014 to 2.7% in 2015, while the national current account surplus fell to approx- imately 0.6% of GDP in 2015 from 3.8% of GDP in 2015. However, these effects of declining oil and gas prices have been somewhat mitigated, as international sanctions limiting access to global markets forced Iran to enact significant structural reforms in response to the downward price pressures of lower oil revenues many years ahead of other oil-exporters in the region. Gross national savings stand at an impressive 30.1% of GDP, while government debt sits at just 17.1% of GDP, putting the country at 22nd and ninth place, respectively, in the GCR. In addition to the buffering effects of economic sanctions, the country’s financial and capital accounts have re- mained comparatively unresponsive to shocks in the external macroeconomic environment. Its lower exposure to volatility in international capital markets has provided it a serendipitous layer of added protection from developments such as hikes in the US Federal Reserve interest rate, which have had an immediate impact on the performance of many other similarly struc- tured emerging market economies. Although Iran has been able to reap second- ary benefits from the sanctions, the resulting economic recession has placed significant bur- dens on several of the country’s most sensitive areas of production. GDP growth reached just 0.5% during 2015, which, although low, marks a much-needed turnaround from several years of rapid contraction in the country’s GDP. Em- ployment, on the other hand, has not enjoyed such a speedy turnaround, with unemploy- ment increasing from 10.6% in 2014 to 11.7% in 2015. With increasing portions of the national labor force struggling to find employment op- portunities, inflation has thankfully dropped from the 34% high in 2013 to single digits in 2016. Annual changes in the consumer price index have dropped dramatically from a 45.1% peak in October 2012. Containment in 2015 of the hyperinflation that plagued the country in recent years was largely attributed to the stead- fastness of the Central Bank of Iran in its posi- tion on monetary policy. The removal of sanctions that came with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac- tion (JCPOA) in July 2016 is projected to boost production and exports of oil, while in theory decreasing the costs of both international finan- cial transactions as well as commercial trade. The lifting of sanctions brought with it an enor- mous boost in confidence among both local and foreign investors rushing to capitalize on the myriad opportunities made available by the re- opening of economic channels with the global marketplace. Another immediate benefit of the JCPOA for the government of Iran will be the re- newed access to heretofore frozen foreign-held assets, around USD30 billion of which have already been made available. On top of these windfall assets, the government hopes to im- prove the operational effectiveness of expendi- ture activities by instituting large-scale reforms of its subsidy programs, looking in particular to reevaluate its policies on issuing subsidies for key products such as electricity, water, and bread. During the 2007-2008 fiscal year, indi- rect subsidies reached an estimated USD77.2 billion, the equivalent to approximately 27% of the year’s total GDP. Continued reduction of significant subsidies like those for fuel through adaptive policies, like the government’s new direct cash transfer programs and increased collection and mobilization of national tax reve- nues, are now key to further narrowing the fiscal deficit and containing mounting stresses on real exchange rates and forex markets as well as on imported inflation. Not content to wait for market movements to dictate its policy, the leaders of Iran have formulated a comprehensive policy framework centering on market reforms through the sixth development plan for 2016-2021 as well as a 20-year long-term strategic vision. The devel- opment agenda is based on the three tenets of reinforcing the resilience of the national econ- omy, achieving an 8% annual GDP growth rate, and supporting domestic innovations in science and technology. The cause for focusing on better leveraging available knowledge-based assets is 2012 2013 2014 2015 STATE BUDGET (CURRENT USD BILLION) SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN 28.21 18.01 37.97 22.74 45.59 30.99 54.11 35.62 Revenues Expenditures
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  • 26. THEBUSINESSYEAR24 IRAN 2016 *Readthefullinterviewatthebusinessyear.com illustrated by Iran’s standing in the GCR, which ranked the country 48th and 44th for the quality of its math and science education and the local availability of scientists and engineers, respec- tively, yet put it at just number 89 in the world in terms of its capacity to innovate. The plan also calls for reconfiguring state oil revenues and implementing deep-reaching restructuring in many key nationalized enterprises, including those in the capital markets and financial ser- vices sector. Though Iran has the 19th largest domestic market in the world, the prevalence of foreign ownership was ranked just 137th best in by the GCR, while the business impact of FDI regu- lations earned Iran 133rd place in the report. The signing of the JCPOA will give Iran access to the global marketplace, help it establish a more competitive national business environment, and fuel in large part an increase in GDP growth, which the IMF’s First Deputy Director expects to reach 4.5% in 2016, before it levels off to an aver- age rate of roughly 4% over the medium term. In addition to a return to the years of higher GDP growth rates, increased oil revenues are expect- ed to shrink the fiscal deficit to approximately 1.8% in 2016 before falling to just 1% in 2017, while driving the current account balance back into the green by 2017. The benefits of the JCPOA are expected to bring about noticeable immediate improve- ments to prosperity at the household level, with per capita welfare projected to improve by 3.7% thanks to the growth opportunities made avail- able by the ongoing trend of liberalization and privatization of transport and financial services as well as the increased oil income expected to follow the end of the oil embargo put in place by the EU. That exports measured just 18.7% of GDP in 2015—one of the lowest levels in the world—gives further credence to the optimism among many that the removal of economic sanctions is key to turning around the country’s regressive economic trajectory of late. Though increased production and exports of oil and gas will relieve pressure on the state budget, one of the real keys to sustainable long-term growth in the post-JCPOA era will be bolstering the com- petitiveness of the country’s non-oil sector. This will also be crucial for new job creation, a linchpin for the future of a society characterized by the youth of its population, more than 60% of which was estimated as recently as 2013 to be under the age of 30. The 2017/2018 fiscal year’s budget represents a further opportunity for Iran’s leaders to set a unified direction for Iran’s economic course by establishing a strategy to reduce the deficit for the non-oil sectors and maintain the current levels of low inflation. The strategy stands to po- sition the country to better navigate the uncer- tain macroeconomic environment to which it is now increasingly exposed, particularly in terms of enduring depressed oil prices and increasing debt service costs. One implication of this is the impetus on heads of both the public and private sectorstosecureareliableanddiversifiedmixof capital funding to support the increased public spending needed to drive consolidated efforts to reorient the national economic structure. In the post-sanctions era, the greater involvement of the international business community is expected to enhance productivity, create new jobs, improve the standard of living, and extend investments in entrepreneurial endeavors. A flourishing Iran could represent a guiding force for regional stability and long-term prosperity. Continuing the steps taken thus far to improve the economic and legislative environment are top on the country’s strategic agenda. ✖ Despite the crippling burden of the sanctions, Iran’s estimated USD393.7 billion GDP in 2015— down 7.44% YoY from 2014—made it the second-largest economy in the MENA region, trailing only Saudi Arabia. DAVID LIPTON First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF) What measures should Iran apply to drive Ira- nian banks toward meeting Basel III require- ments? The severity of the challenges facing Iran’s banking system requires immediate action. Iran’s banks are undercapitalized, asset quality is weak, and credit is costly amid high real interest rates. Banks need to be placed on a sound financial footing. This requires resolving non-performing loans, recapitalizing and restructuring weak banks, strengthening bank supervision by bringing unlicensed banks under the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) supervisory umbrella, and increasing the CBI’s enforcement powers. What is the IMF’s outlook on Iran’s economic performance? Our outlook remains favorable, with Iran benefiting from a strong rebound in the oil sector and gradual recovery in the non-oil sector. Growth is expected to reach 4.5%, while inflation should remain in single digits. Improvement in Iran’s growth rate will de- pend on non-oil prospects. Achieving the 8% growth target requires reforms that protect macroeconomic stability through prudent monetary and fiscal poli- cies that minimize inflation and stabilize exchange rates as well modernize and liberalize the economy, creating a more export-oriented and competitive economic model that can create jobs for the large youth population, and build the confidence of foreign businesses to expand trade and investment.*
  • 27. THEBUSINESSYEAR 25Economy I N T E R V I E W According to your 10-year plan, what role should the private sector play in the development of the Iranian economy? After the signing of the JCPOA, all the countries showed their interest in re- connecting with Iran. At the same time, we were inter- Dr. Mohsen Jalalpour is the former President of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines & Agriculture (ICCIMA). Previously, he was the President of Iranian National Committee of International Chamber of Commerce (INC-ICC), the President of Kerman Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture for 12 years, and the Founder and Chairman of the Iran Pistachio Association. He has also held different managing positions in the private sector, as the Managing Director of Kerman Rahbaran Cement Co., Chairman of Trade Development Co., Pars Tadbir Pariz Investment Co., and Arman Roshan Arg Investment Co. He holds a bachelor’s in economics and a bachelor of civil engineering from Kerman University, Iran. BIO TBY talks to Dr. Mohsen Jalalpour, former President of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines & Agriculture (ICCIMA), on the private sector’s role in driving economic development, attracting FDI, and improving the country’s international standing. PRIVATE chambers ested in connecting with the international economy. We learnt a great deal during the sanctions period, and low oil prices also convinced us of the necessity of changing our patterns toward a stronger private sector. In the foresee- able future, our economy will enter a new phase where all the development will be led by the private sector. The next 10 years will be very different from the previous 10, and we have many plans for venture capital projects across many sectors, such as agriculture and tourism. What is the importance of at- tracting foreign investment to achieve 5% GDP growth? Last year we had 5% growth only in the agriculture sector without any foreign invest- ment. We also saw 4% growth in the oil and gas sector. But if we consider the unemploy- ment rate in Iran, account- ing for two and a half million to three million people, we have to reach more than 8% GDP growth this year to cre- ate enough jobs. In order to achieve this milestone, we have to absorb investment from abroad. Approximately 200 delegations have come to this chamber during the last few years. After visiting President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz in Brussels, he raised three points that are important to attract this investment, espe- cially from Europe. First, he said Iran is not a consuming country and foreign compa- nies have to invest in Iran by transferring technology mak- ing joint ventures. Secondly, Iran is not only a country with 80 million people; it is within a region of 400 million peo- ple and has great influence in those markets. Finally, he said all the agreements and MoUs that were signed ear- lier should be renewed and restarted in order to improve relations with Iran. How does the chamber coop- erate with the government and parliament to promote trade? We have strong links with the public sector, the judi- ciary, and also parliament. We have to create procedures and transmit all the needs • Promotes development of the private sector • Aims to attract FDI • Targeting 8% GDP growth in 2016 and difficulties of the private sector to the parliament and the government. We are a side of the government. Some members of the parliament come to the chamber and we discuss the private sector and the needs of the Iranian econ- omy. What role can Iran play in the international market? When you look globally and focus on resources, popula- tion, history, and culture, Iran is a leader among all the coun- tries in all sectors. Iran has had a deep influence on the histo- ry of humanity. Considering the power of our economy and our human resources, we have a leading position in the region as a transit hub from the north, south, east, and west corridors, with access to several neighboring countries. You will see the increasing in- fluence of Iran in the near fu- ture, especially in energy and renewables. In tourism, min- ing, and minerals, we will also be a leader. We will be one of the safest countries in the near future and a source of production and distribution for international companies in the Middle East. Consid- ering the geographical situa- tion and access to oceans and seaports, Iran will be a hub for transporting goods to over- seas markets. All this poten- tial will be materialized if we develop our private sector. ✖
  • 28. THEBUSINESSYEAR26 IRAN 2016 F O C U S V I S I O N 2 0 2 5 IN ACCORDANCE WITH the horizon doc- ument, which was prepared by the Expediency Council and ratified by the Supreme Leader in 2005, Iran must be the regional leader in terms of economy, science, and technology by 2025. Creating an inspiring society has required Iran’s leaders to prioritize young people and the trans- fer of knowledge, implementing new technolo- gy, creating jobs, and bringing in foreign invest- ment. To that end, the success of Vision 2025 relies on Iran’s ability to build constructive and effective international relationships with the world’s nations. A glance at the deals signed with Italy and France illustrates the government’s prioritiza- tion of economic and technological coopera- tion in energy, industry, tourism, and finance. “Iran is the safest, most stable country in the entire region. We invite you to invest and we will provide stability and ensure that you can make adequate returns,” Rouhani emphasized to European businessmen and politicians. Iran seeks 8% GDP growth, and experts say to be able to achieve it the country needs between USD30 and 90 billion in annual investment. Therefore, minimizing tensions while promoting peace and trust is key for Iran to facilitate the acqui- sition of foreign investment and technologies needed to develop the country. Moreover, the JCPOA agreement is the ulti- mate representation of the importance of link- ing with the world to achieve future objectives. Resolving the nuclear issue was instrumental to fulfilling the vision’s goal of recognition and reintegration in the international system as an equal player. Since then, numerous political and economic delegations have landed in Teh- ran to boost ties and sign fruitful deals. Without a doubt, energy has been one of the main topics on the negotiation table, as Iran is seeking to attract more than USD100 billion in investments from international oil compa- nies in a long-term plan to develop more than 70 crude and natural gas projects. By 2025, the Islamic Republic aims to produce 8% of the LINKING WITH THE FUTURE According to its strategic plan, Iran seeks to become the Middle East’s top power by the next decade. Vision 2025, also called Twenty- Year National Vision, embraces a set of goals to create a knowledge- based society with economic growth. In the context of a year based on a resistant economy, President Rouhani acknowledged that Iran’s development depends on its interaction with the world. world’s gas and 7% of the world’s oil, which would make it OPEC’s second-largest producer. Additionally, Iranian non-oil exports were growing even before sanctions were lifted. After hydrocarbons, the automotive industry is Iran’s biggest sector, accounting for about 10% of GDP and employing about 4% of the labor force. Reaching the number one rank in the Middle East’s automotive industry based on technolog- ical advancement is another of Iran’s goals for 2025. Assuming no further sanctions will be im- posed, it can be expected that the country will produce up to 2 million vehicles within the next 10 years. Up to 40 foreign automakers, including Peugeot, Mercedes, and Toyota, have declared their interest in using Iran as a hub for exporting their products to neighboring countries. In recent years, tourism has become the center of attention of national policymakers as another major sector to be focused on. Around 20 million tourists are expected for 2025, which will equate to some USD25 billion in income. This represents 30% growth over the next four years and requires renovating tourism infra- structures, especially in accommodation and transportation facilities. According to the na- tional plan, this will require USD11 billion in investment. Ultimately, Vision 2025 foresees a total invest- ment of USD3.7 trillion to finance the transition fromaresource-basedtoaknowledgeeconomy. Much of this amount will go toward supporting investment in R&D in areas like biotechnolo- gy, nanotechnology, space technology, nuclear energy, and medicine. With external tensions simmering down, the Iranian government sees an opportunity to play a much more significant role in the international arena to improve eco- nomic conditions, reduce vulnerabilities, and promote competitive advantages. Seeing Vi- sion 2025 to fruition involves reconnecting its vibrant emerging economy to world markets, with the allure of prosperity for international and local investors, and a brighter future for a young, talented population. ✖ 2020 2025
  • 29. THEBUSINESSYEAR 27Economy I N T E R V I E W What is the role of IFIC in es- tablishing confidence within the global market in order to attract foreign investment? As the main body for invest- ing abroad on behalf of the government, IFIC has a big responsibility to strengthen the international economic relations of Iran. IFIC is now present on five continents, and we have investments in 22 countries. The first way we at- tract foreign investors to Iran is through foreign investments, as per our mandate and pri- mary responsibility. When we carry out these investments abroad, we become part of the international network, cre- ating an atmosphere of trust and indirectly inviting inter- ested parties to come to Iran. We also have investments in private equities and stock markets around the world. We own shares in important companies such as British Pe- troleum, ThyssenKrupp, Sie- mens, Adidas, and many other big brands. Although IFIC is not allowed to invest in Iran on its own, we can also attract Dr. Farhad Zargari is currently the Chairman and Managing Director of Iran Foreign Investment Company (IFIC). In 2015 he was appointed Advisor to the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs. For several years he was Managing Director of the Tamin Pharmaceutical Investment Company (TPICO). He served as Director for studies and strategic planning in Social Security Investment Company (SSIC-SHASTA) in 2008. He has also held several senior roles in the Social Security Organization (SSO) and was SSO’s representative in the International Social Security Association (ISSA) in Geneva. Dr. Zargari completed his studies in management in Arizona. BIO TBY talks to Dr. Farhad Zargari, Managing Director & Chairman of Iran Foreign Investments Company (IFIC), on the role of the organization in establishing confidence within the global market. growing CAPITAL foreign investments by co-in- vesting with foreign investors inside Iran through our sub- sidiaries. Our presence in any domestic project is a source of comfort for foreign investors to freely come to Iran. Does the lifting of sanctions rep- resent a turning point in your in- vestment strategy abroad? Our board reviewed our investment strategy—tak- ing into consideration the post-sanction circumstanc- es—and formulated a new plan that identified three tar- get areas for investment, the first of which is financial insti- tutions. Our investments will now focus more on the bank- ing system, leasing compa- nies, insurance and re-insur- ance firms, investment funds, and the like. Our second area for investment is global capital markets, as certain resources need high liquidity in order to be able to cash them for further FDIs. The third area is direct investment in high-tech industries, so we will concen- trate on ICT and new scienc- es. In our portfolio, we have a large investment in ICT and mobile operations around the world. We are present in mobile operations in seven African countries and certain Asian countries. We have ac- tion plans in place to target these three investment areas in the coming years. What is the importance of main- taining a good relationship with the European market? One of IFIC’s significant roles is to create a bridge between Iran and other countries with our investments, in order to pave the ground for knowl- edge and know-how transfer. This is one of the consider- ations we had in mind when we chose high-technology industries as a focus for our future investments. We feel more secure investing in Eu- ropean and other developed countries compared to less regulated countries. Despite the sanctions, IFIC’s invest- ments in Europe were almost intact. Our investments, cap- ital gain, and dividends were all secure. After the lifting of sanctions we can transfer that money to new investment projects, and we are attracted to countries with good gover- nance. What will be your position among leading global invest- ment companies in the coming years? We have thus far made our investments by using the dividends and profits from our previous investments. However, currently we are in the process of creating an investment fund in Switzer- land. This should give other investors enough confidence to also invest in this fund. At the same time, the fund pro- spectus clearly states it works with Iranian companies and finances them for trade. Trade financing is an important tool that Iranian companies are definitely in need of, which wasthereasonforcreatingthis fund. It will help Iranian com- panies overcome the scarcity of resources they face at the moment. This fund should guarantee 6% profit annually at a time when interest rates in Europe are negative. With the lifting of sanctions, we have gained more freedom to op- erate more broadly and form partnerships with competent partners, which will hopefully lead to even better results in the future. ✖ Invests government assets in 22 countries across five continents Focuses on financial institutions, capital markets, and ICT
  • 30. THEBUSINESSYEAR28 IRAN 2016 I N T E R V I E W How does the lifting of sanc- tions represent a turning point for Atiyeh Saba’s mission of giving local companies access to global markets? The lifting of sanctions means Iran will open up to the world after 20 years. Iranians are well known for their hospital- ity, but the removal of sanc- tions will grant the country the opportunity to show it to the world. When I took of- fice, the sanctions were in the last process of removal. Since then, we organized a confer- ence in Isfahan where we in- vited top officials involved in the hospitality sector, such as Kempinski, Rotana, Ritz Carl- ton, and the École hôtelière de Lausanne. We wanted to show that we are ready to deal with the world, and we received a great response; so far, we have defined USD10 billion in projects with foreign inves- tors. In order to be ready for the arrival of more visitors to Iran, we need to renovate the hospitality sector, as most of the hotels were built 45 years ago. This has become a major project for Atiyeh Saba, as we plan to build at least 50 five- star hotels. What investments are you con- ducting to prepare the required transport infrastructure for the development of tourism? Iran has about 250 aircraft in total, and Aseman Airlines is one of the leading airline in the country with strong roots even before the revolution. During the war and sanctions period, many of our aircraft were damaged, and we are currently renovating them. Dr. Ahmad Reza Nikkar is the CEO and Board Member of Atiyeh Saba Investment Company, affiliated with the Civil Servants Pension Fund. Prior to his current role, Dr. Nikkar held different positions in the Ministry of Industry, Mining, and Trade, also being the Executive Manager of the high-speed train between Tehran and Esfahan, as well as in the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. He holds a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering, a M.S. Industrial, a Ph.D. in curriculum and planning from Texas University, and a post-doctorate in planning and management from Harvard University. BIO TBY talks to Dr. Ahmad Reza Nikkar, CEO of Atiyeh Saba Investment Co., on new access after sanctions, preparing for the development of the tourism industry, and plans for the year ahead. BRINGING the best During the president’s visit to France, we signed a MoU with Airbus, and 50 aircraft were assigned to Aseman. At the same time, we have to expand our airports and railroads. We started invest- ing in a high-speed railroad from Tehran to Isfahan and have signed an MoU with Italy’s ENZO Group to de- velop the Tehran-Mashhad railroad project, valued at USD5.5 million. Overall, we have signed USD8 billion in contracts with ENZO. More- over, because of the pollu- tion in Iran, we have signed a contract to purchase 14,000 hybrid cars to transport visi- tors throughout the country. We will send instructors to mosques and the five in- ternational airports to train drivers to improve their En- glish. Besides our invest- ments in transport, we are defining different attractions for the tourism industry. How are you attracting new technologies to the mining in- dustry to develop the sector? Mining was not part of our activities before, but since I joined Atiyeh Saba we have set up a holding for the min- ing sector. We now hold mul- tiple meetings with foreign companies that are inter- ested in supporting projects financially. Mining projects take a long time in produc- tion, so it is not easy to find investors who want to wait five to seven years to make a profit. We aim to invest in different materials such as copper or in areas like Chadormalu. What are your plans for the year ahead? We want to show the world who we are and what we can do. We aim to share our proj- ects with the world, and the best location to focus on first is the UAE. We organized an exhibition in Dubai to intro- duce ourselves to the world’s biggest companies and show off our capabilities. Further- more, we are developing the Melli National Shoe, a brand that has 240 stores through- out the world. We signed a contract with the Polytech- nic University of Turin to redesign the shoe. The de- mands of young people have changed, so we have to make them believe this is what they need. We bring in the best ex- pertise to all these projects. The country now needs to focus on creative ideas that create assets, not just invest. Thinking will bring about many assets for the develop- ment of Iran. ✖ Contributes to the development of infrastructure, such as highways, railroads, and aviation
  • 31. THEBUSINESSYEAR 29Economy B 2 BThecontentonthispageistakenfromexclusiveinterviews.Readthefullversionsatthebusinessyear.com What role does your chamber of commerce play in supporting bi- lateral relations with Iran? OMID YARAGHI German-Ira- nian economic ties go back a long time. The AHK belongs to the German Chambers of Indus- try and Commerce (DIHK), our main mother chamber in Berlin. The network of 130 chambers in 90 countries is what makes us unique in front of other foreign chambers existing in Iran. AHK is the second-largest German joint chamber worldwide after India. We have over 2,000 mem- ber companies, of which around 1,500 are Iranian and 500 are German. One of these mem- bers is Bayer, which was active during sanctions, as its medical and pharmaceutical products were not affected by sanctions. There has been a major shift in the partnership between Iran and other countries in past years; China has moved ahead, and India has come into the game, as have South Korea and many other countries that were not present before the sanc- tions. Therefore, taking back the market share for German com- panies that moved out of Iran will not be easy. Foreign chambers of commerce in Iran form a key axis in linking Iranian potential with the world economy. OMID YARAGHI President, German- Iranian Chamber of Commerce & Industry (AHK) SHARIF NEZAM- MAFI Chairman, Iran- Switzerland Chamber of Commerce chambers of COMMERCE SHARIFNEZAM-MAFI Switzer- land has played a critical role in Iran’s re-engagement with the West, and with the EU in partic- ular. It played a pivotal role in the P5+1 negotiations and the subsequent prisoner exchange with the US that took place af- ter the signature and the imple- mentation of the agreement. As Switzerland represents US interests in Iran, it was a facil- itator of the negotiations, and as a result of its neutrality it has built up a great deal of political capital in Iran. Switzerland has been a doorway to Europe for Iran. Although the final signa- ture of the JCPOA was in Vien- na, not in Lausanne, the bulk of the negotiations took place in Switzerland. The Swiss am- bassador has done an excellent job in terms of explaining to Iran what is expected of them and what it wants out of this negotiation. Switzerland has been more of a translator in explaining what the other side wants and will play an even more critical role in preparing Iranian banks and financial institutions to engage with Eu- ropeans. During the years of conflict, especially the war with Iraq and the subsequent sanc- tions, Switzerland has always remained neutral, which has meant a great deal to Iran. Which sectors are of most strategic importance for your chamber? OY One of the biggest aims of companies coming to Iran is to get involved in the oil and gas sector, which is mostly under the control of the government. Nonetheless, the contract with Siemens shows that the coun- try is moving toward the re- newables industry, as we have a big potential to provide solar and wind energy. The petro- chemical sector here, where the private sector is more involved, may soon see added value and become more than just raw material for export. We will also see a great deal of investment in the pharmaceutical industry, as Iran is strong in that sector. Around 11% of the labor force in Iran is active in the textile sector, and in the future we will see joint investments and cooperation for foreign textile companies in Iran. Agriculture is also an area that was not sup- ported enough in the past, but there are many possibilities and facilities now for different kinds of investments. Looking at Iran’s geography, we have different climates and land- scapes, such as the Caspian Sea or forested areas in the south, and this represents numerous opportunities to produce con- sumable goods. SNM I do not foresee big banks coming back anytime soon. The going price on coming back is the fee that was levied on HSBC, which was almost USD15 billion. No bank can make that much profit in Iran, in any business, but we still need the big banks. Second-ti- er banks cannot finance the purchase of 180 Airbus aircraft. This situation has to be solved, and the P5+1 agreement did not take up this issue, which was a mistake. Following the US and Iranian elections, we should have more clarity on the direction things will go. At the same time, Iranian banks may also be more ready. In the West they are now talking of the draft of Basel IV, whereas we have still yet to implement Basel II. We have to address issues like money laundering, due diligence, and transparen- cy. Many companies that want to come here and engage in the local market and make part- nerships with local companies are less than well informed, meaning that they will consider investing here risky. Unless we have the necessary standards to bring the private sector and the government sector on a par with international standards, things will be tough. ✖