1. Global Strategy
Equity Research Asia Sector Strategy
September 29, 2011
China Oil & Gas: Taxing Issues
S&P 2011 GDP ESTIMATES:
China: 8.8%-9.3% We stay Overweight on the China oil & gas companies: despite a potential
Hong Kong: 4.3%-4.8% 2H11 weakness in oil demand, we expect long-term growth to remain steady,
India: 7.5%-8.0% on increasing energy demand in line with the economy, but short-term
Indonesia: 6.1%-6.6% headwinds are increasing with the possible imposition of a nationwide
Korea: 4.2%-4.7% resource tax.
Malaysia: 4.8%-5.3%
Singapore: 4.5%-5.0% Changing picks in a changing environment : Our top pick remains CNOOC
environment:
Taiwan: 4.0%-4.5% Ltd (00883, HKD12.80, 5-STARS), as the 27% decline over the last three
Thailand: 3.7%-4.2% months has created an attractive entry point, in our view, but we have cut
U.S.: 1.6% our 12-month target price to HKD16 (from HKD18) to reflect a potential
Eurozone: 1.7% resource tax and the suspension of PL19-3 production. We also raised
Sinopec (00386, HKD7.55) to 4-STARS (Buy), from 3-STARS (Hold) on lower
2011 INDEX TARGETS: resource tax impact due to smaller upstream presence and heavier crude
S&P 500: 1,250 quality, as well as better control over refining losses. Our call on PetroChina
S&P Euro 350: 850 (00857, HKD9.52) is cut a notch to 3-STARS (Hold), as we expect the
S&P Asia 50: 3,300 company to suffer the most from the potential resource tax in 2012, given its
large upstream presence.
HY12 INDEX TARGETS:
S&P 500 Target: 1,400 Re source tax overhang : The news of the Chinese State Council decision last
S&P Euro 350 Target: 1,000 week to reform the resources tax, (to be levied based on both the value and
S&P Asia 50 Target: 3,500 the volume of the resources) is negative in our view for the Chinese energy
companies. Our channel checks with Sinopec indicate that there is no
immediate impact on earnings, but given that resource tax for China has
been paid on a volume basis (apart from the Western provinces, for which it
is based on both value and volume as of July 2010), a change in regulations
Energy to standardize the rules indicates to us that resource tax rollout to the rest of
the region will come sooner rather than later. We expect the base rate to be
Overweight similar to that paid in the Xinjiang and Western provinces, which is 5%,
Oil & Gas adjusted for crude qualities.
Overweight Refining losses piling up in 1H11 , but slight relief expected in 3Q 11 : For
11:
both PetroChina and Sinopec, refining losses widened substantially in 2Q11,
due to inadequate refined product price adjustments, which lagged the crude
price run-up in 1H11. We expect 3Q11 refining losses to narrow slightly,
given the current weakness in energy prices, but gains may be capped if the
Ahmad Halim, CFA Chinese government cuts refined product prices to cap high inflation.
Equity Analyst
Upstream updates: The full suspension of CNOOC Ltd’s PL19-3 field should
affect 2011 production by about 6 mmboe. In the absence of guidance on
when the field will be back onstream, we assume production will
recommence in 2H11. PetroChina booked in substantial production gains in
1H11 (+5% YoY, strongest in recent years), while Sinopec also announced
recently the discovery of the Yuanba gas field, which could potentially
eclipse its current biggest field Puguang.
This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Standard & Poor’s Neither Standard & Poor’s nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results
Equity Research Services from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2011. All required
17th Floor, Prudential Tower d i s c l o s u r e s a n d a n a l y s t ce r t i f i ca t i o n a p p e a r s o n t h e l a st 3 p a g e s o f t h i s r e p o r t . A d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s
30 Cecil Street, Singapore a v a i l a b l e o n re q u e s t .

2. September 29, 2011 G loba l Str ate gy
Where do we see values? Based on S&P Capital IQ estimates, both CNOOC
Ltd and Sinopec are looking cheap, at 6.8x and 6.3x 2012 EPS (vs. E&P peers 2
and integrated peers at 9x and 7x respectively), and underpins our
preference for the stocks. Petrochina looks relatively expensive but its strong
domestic footing and above average dividend yields should ensure limited
downside.
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3. September 29, 2011 G loba l Str ate gy
as 27
Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios a s of Sep. 27, 2011 3
Price Performance PER (x) PAT Growth
Market
Trading Cap (USD
Company Name CIQ Ticker Ccy Share Price mln) 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012
Integrated O&G
Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM USD 72.91 354,497 0.4% -8.4% -12.7% 8.5x 8.2x 38.4% 2.9%
PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 HKD 9.52 271,143 3.8% -15.8% -14.8% 9.7x 8.6x 10.6% 11.4%
Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA GBP 20.36 203,705 4.1% -5.0% -9.0% 7.0x 6.7x 31.3% 9.0%
Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX USD 93.54 187,359 -3.4% -6.8% -11.8% 6.9x 7.0x 39.6% 3.3%
BP plc LSE:BP. GBP 4.05 120,325 4.8% -8.7% -15.2% 5.4x 5.4x NM 3.4%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) SEHK:386 HKD 7.55 92,171 7.5% -3.1% -1.8% 7.0x 6.3x 10.8% 10.7%
ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP USD 64.26 88,231 -1.9% -12.3% -19.2% 7.8x 7.3x 2.7% 1.5%
PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT THB 283.00 26,180 -10.7% -12.7% -18.2% 7.8x 7.1x 24.0% 10.2%
Average 0.58% -9.10% -12.84% 7.5x 7.1x 22.5% 6.5%
Exploration & Production (E&P)
CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 HKD 12.80 73,340 -11.1% -27.0% -31.6% 6.8x 6.8x 32.3% -0.1%
Statoil ASA OB:STL NOK 123.40 68,575 -0.8% -5.8% -19.6% 7.4x 6.8x 43.3% 7.9%
Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU CAD 28.38 43,828 -4.7% -24.4% -34.5% 9.4x 8.3x 33.8% 17.7%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC USD 71.31 35,499 2.9% -4.6% -13.1% 21.0x 17.7x 122.9% 28.8%
Apache Corp. NYSE:APA USD 85.86 32,964 -14.4% -28.3% -32.0% 7.1x 6.7x 56.0% 16.6%
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL AUD 31.40 24,373 -11.3% -20.8% -33.3% 15.5x 12.0x 3.9% 39.7%
Hess Corporation NYSE:HES USD 56.87 19,329 2.1% -20.4% -31.5% 8.1x 7.4x 14.5% 17.1%
PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTTEP THB 151.50 16,301 -7.9% -8.7% -16.5% 10.6x 8.6x 15.3% 25.4%
Average -5.65% -17.51% -26.50% 10.7x 9.3x 40.2% 19.1%
EV/EBITDA PBV ROE Gross Margin Div Yield
Company
Compa ny Name FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012 FY2011 FY2012
Integrated O&G
Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM 3.9x 3.7x 1.9x 1.7x 25.7% 23.5% 45.80% 47.70% 2.54% 2.69%
PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 5.8x 5.3x 1.4x 1.3x 15.0% 15.2% 45.93% 46.37% 4.49% 5.02%
Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA 3.6x 3.4x 1.2x 1.0x 17.4% 16.1% 23.00% 23.60% 5.28% 5.61%
Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX 3.0x 2.9x 1.5x 1.3x 23.3% 19.8% 43.80% 46.00% 3.31% 3.47%
BP plc LSE:BP. 3.1x 3.1x 1.1x 1.0x 21.0% 18.6% 20.50% 21.20% 4.37% 4.69%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) SEHK:386 4.7x 4.3x 1.1x 1.0x 17.0% 16.4% 15.37% 16.94% 3.75% 4.06%
ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP 3.5x 3.4x 1.3x 1.2x 17.0% 16.9% 25.70% 26.10% 4.04% 4.35%
PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT 6.1x 5.3x 1.4x 1.3x 19.4% 18.7% 8.95% 9.04% 4.44% 4.76%
Average 4.2x 3.9x 1.4x 1.2x 19.5% 18.2% 28.63% 29.62% 4.03% 4.33%
Exploration & Production (E&P)
CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 3.5x 3.4x 1.8x 1.5x 28.8% 23.9% 55.41% 54.22% 5.31% 5.10%
Statoil ASA OB:STL 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x 25.5% 21.3% 49.68% 50.67% 5.32% 5.58%
Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU 4.9x 4.4x 1.1x 1.0x 12.9% 12.4% 60.80% 62.40% 1.52% 1.61%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC 5.5x 4.8x 1.6x 1.5x 7.3% 8.2% 70.35% 70.65% 0.51% 0.51%
Apache Corp. NYSE:APA 3.3x 2.9x 1.2x 1.0x 17.8% 16.7% 77.55% 78.15% 0.73% 0.73%
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL 9.5x 6.3x 2.0x 1.8x 13.4% 17.7% 66.75% 68.60% 3.37% 4.31%
Hess Corporation NYSE:HES 3.1x 2.8x 1.0x 0.9x 13.5% 12.5% 25.10% 25.30% 0.73% 0.73%
PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTTEP 4.9x 3.9x 2.4x 2.0x 25.2% 26.0% 52.88% 53.04% 3.70% 4.60%
Average 4.5x 3.8x 1.6x 1.4x 18.0% 17.3% 57.31% 57.88% 2.65% 2.90%
Source: S&P Capital IQ
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4. Sept emb er 29, 2 01 1 G loba l Str ate gy
EV- Enterprise Value
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4
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