1. AMishra RNN Study Analytical Framework May 2014-7.htm
Aashish Mishra, NIAF Page 1 19-May-14
RNN Study Framework is the analytical construct for assessing the Northern
Nigerian (NN) States' potential vulnerabilities from and resilience to adverse impacts
from climate change scenarios, as determined by its 'adaptive capacity' to protect
diverse population and sectors from vulnerabilities to climate impacts. Climate
vulnerability and resilience are diametrically opposed and inter-related ends of the
climate impact continuum, and provide appropriate conceptual basis to utilise inverse
logic frameworks such as SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) to
determine Northern Nigerian States' most significant climate threats to population
and sector vulnerability. In turn such regional vulnerability risks provide logical
counter-response to overcome resilience system weaknesses in regional planning,
institutions and investments, which should typically adapt to emerging risks, faced by
vulnerable population and core sectors in responsive regional systems.
The study framework utilises "adaptive capacity assessment" as overarching case
study survey method to rapidly assess select NN States' strength of existing 'regional
resilience systems' for adaptation and resilience planning, institutions and investment
practices. RNN framework measures Northern Nigerian States' "adaptive capacity"
vis-à-vis responsiveness of prevailing resilience systems to dampen climate
vulnerability of at-risk population groups and protect critical infrastructure sector
investments. The RNN model supported through SWOT-level assessment captures
of NN regions' 'baseline resilience scenario' and thus its "adaptive capacity" to
dampen vulnerability. This 'baseline scenario' of adaptive capacity provides
comparative basis to generate further hypothesis regarding potential array of
strategic interventions to strengthen, for e.g., planning for agriculture production.
The RNN study design establishes regional climate profiles and projection models as
prima-facie identification of disparate NN States' vulnerable population
(agglomerations of urban ands rural areas) and core sectors (water, power,
transport, regional and urban infrastructure) at-risk. Case study method is then
utilised to investigate regional vulnerability and "adaptive capacity" vis-à-vis rural and
urban settlements and built-up assets, water and power networks and transportation
linkages; and assessed through integrated case study analysis regarding on-ground
workability for potential medium-term NN resilience development interventions.
Finally, the expected outcomes of the RNN study include better supporting DFID
and NN States in SWOT assessment for regional climate proofing infrastructure
development and investments; supporting regional development infrastructure
strategy through analysis of bankable infrastructure project design, sector
integration, financing options; and finally, informing DFID’s medium-term NN aid
strategy through study recommendations for unlocking regional climate proofing
infrastructure strategies, and furthermore highlight tremendous scope for NN's
socio-economic diversification through, for e.g., resilience systems responding to
shifts in urban-rural productivity by more strategic regional development investment.

2. AMishra RNN Study Analytical Framework May 2014-7.htm
Aashish Mishra, NIAF Page 2 19-May-14
1 RNN Study Analytical Framework
1.1
Field based assessment in Northern Nigeria (NN) States analyses strength of select states'
"Regional Resilience Systems" and thereby its "Adaptive Capacity" for dampening climate
vulnerability of at-risk population groups and critical infrastructure sector investments.
2 NN Climate Scenarios
2.1 Climate Impact Profile
2.1.1 Environmental Triggers
2.1.2 Climate Variability
2.1.3 Ecological Changes
2.1.4 Socio-economic Factors
2.2 Climate Impact Projections
2.2.1 Historic Events
2.2.2 Baseline Conditions
2.2.3 Projected Effects
3 NN Climate Vulnerability
3.1 Typology of Population At-Risk
3.1.1 Emerging City-Regions
3.1.2 State Capital Networks
3.1.3 Regional Growth Corridors
3.1.4 Rural Agglomerations
3.2 Sector Infrastructure At-risk
3.2.1 Cilmate Proofing Infrastructure
3.2.2 Water and Energy Resources
3.2.3 Transportation Networks
3.2.4 Regional & Urban Development
4
Climate Adaptive Capacity Assessment for Regional
Resilence Systems
5 NN Climate Resilience Systems
5.1 Resilience Planning
5.1.1 Land use and settlement planning
5.1.2 Resilient settlements & built-up structures
5.1.3 Water and energy resource management
5.1.4 Rural and urban productivity improvement
5.2 Resilience Institutions
5.2.1 Climate impact mapping & early warning systems
5.2.2 Regional emissions & environmental regulation
5.2.3 Regional climate risk pooling & insurance market
5.3 Resilience Investment
5.3.1 Climate risk adaptation and resilience investment loans
5.3.2 Resilient infrastructure bankabiity and private-sector financing
5.3.3 Rural & urban resilience investment credit facilities and co-financing
5.3.4 Intergovernmental and performance-based infrastructure subsidies

3. AMishra RNN Study Analytical Framework May 2014-7.htm
Aashish Mishra, NIAF Page 3 19-May-14
Data from RNN Framework
1. RNN
Study
Analytical
Framework
1. Field
based
assessment
in
Northern
Nigeria
(NN)
States
analyses
strength
of
select
states'
"Regional
Resilience
Systems"
and
thereby
it's
"Adaptive
Capacity"
for
dampening
climate
vulnerability
of
at-­‐risk
population
groups
and
critical
infrastructure
sector
investments.
2. NN
Climate
Scenarios
1. Climate
Impact
Profile
1. Environmental
Triggers
2. Climate
Variability
3. Ecological
Changes
4. Socio-­‐economic
Factors
2. Climate
Impact
Projections
1. Historic
Events
2. Baseline
Conditions
3. Projected
Effects
3. NN
Climate
Vulnerability
1. Typology
of
Population
At-­‐Risk
1. Emerging
City-­‐Regions
1. Kano
Metropolitan
Area
2. Kaduna
City-­‐Region
3. Sokoto
City-­‐Region
2. State
Capital
Networks
1. Rural-­‐urban
scale
economies
2. Rural
industries
in
Capital
Regions
3. Inter-­‐State
Capital
Corridors
3. Regional
Growth
Corridors
1. Trade-­‐Markets-­‐Industrial
Networks
2. Railway,
Highway
and
Road
Networks
3. Regional
&
International
Crossing
Boundaries
4. Pipeline-­‐Powerline
Networks
to
towns
and
cities
4. Rural
Agglomerations
1. Shared
natural
resources
or
geography
clusters
2. Historic
or
current
markets
and
trading
clusters
3. Ethnic,
nomadic
and
local
clusters
2. Sector
Infrastructure
At-­‐risk
1. Climate
Proofing
Infrastructure
1. River/Lake/Reservoir
Barriers
2. Emergency
Services
3. Dam
&
Reservoir
4. Storm
Water
Drainage
5. Solid
Waste
Mgt.
6. GHG
7. At-­‐Risk
Settlements
2. Water
and
Energy
Resources
1. State
Water
and
Power
Provision
2. Informal
Water
and
Power
Markets

4. AMishra RNN Study Analytical Framework May 2014-7.htm
Aashish Mishra, NIAF Page 4 19-May-14
3. Agriculture-­‐Water-­‐Energy
Linkages
4. Rainwater,
Wastewater
and
Ground-­‐water
Harvesting
5. Renewable
Energy
6. Agricultural/Industrial
Consumption
3. Transportation
Networks
1. National
Highways
2. Rural
Road
Networks
3. Intra-­‐
Regional
and
4. National
Railways
5. International
and
Domestic
Borders
6. Regional
airports
and
4. Regional
&
Urban
Development
1. Human
Settlement
Infrastructure
2. Storm
Drainage
and
Solid
Waste
Mgt.
3. Farming
&
Pastoral
Activities
4. Rural
&
Urban
Agriculture
5. Land-­‐Water-­‐Energy
Linkages
6. Essential
Trunk
Infrastructure
4. Climate
Adaptive
Capacity
Assessment
for
Regional
Resilience
Systems
5. NN
Climate
Resilience
Systems
1. Resilience
Planning
1. Land
use
and
settlement
planning
2. Resilient
settlements
&
built-­‐up
structures
3. Water
and
energy
resource
management
4. Rural
and
urban
productivity
improvement
2. Resilience
Institutions
1. Climate
impact
mapping
&
early
warning
systems
2. Regional
emissions
&
environmental
regulation
3. Regional
climate
risk
pooling
&
insurance
market
3. Resilience
Investment
1. Climate
risk
adaptation
and
resilience
investment
loans
2. Resilient
infrastructure
bankability
and
private-­‐sector
financing
3. Rural
&
urban
resilience
investment
credit
facilities
and
co-­‐
financing
4. Intergovernmental
and
performance-­‐based
infrastructure
subsidies
Model: AMishra Final RNN Study Analytical Framework6.html