Modeling Impacts

1. Track 7: Modeling Impacts of Climate Variability
and Sea Level Rise on Coastal Surface Water Utility
(Part 1 – Framing Climate Variability)
Florida Public Works Expo - Tampa
April 19, 2016

2. Overview
• PART 1 – Track 7: Framing Climate Variability
and Sea Level Rise Concerns
• PART 2 – Track 11: Water Supply Reliability
Modeling on the Peace River

3. Framing Climate Variability and
Sea Level Rise
• Introduction
• Proxies Help Bridge Understanding of the Past
• Climate Controversy: Hockey Sticks/Climategate
• Greenhouse Gases
• Temperature and Melting Ice
• Sea Level Rise
• Evidence of Past Extreme Climate Variation
• Projected Climate Conditions
• Conclusions

4. Introduction

5. Climate Discussion and Rhetoric
• Special interests/opportunists
• Extremely polarizing
• Diminishes opportunities for open
dialogue

6. Important Issues in Voters’ Minds?

7. Biggest Problems Facing our Country?

8. Climate Policy
• Policy makers represent the broad, often
conflicting, interests of society
Recent Gallup poll
on what issues most
concern Americans

9. Proxies Help
Bridge
Understanding
of the Past

10. If You Condensed All of Earth’s History
into 24 Hours
• Dinosaurs died out at 20 minutes before midnight
• Hominids appear in the last 100 seconds
• Preserved ice cores let us “see” back 1 minute
• Our country has only been around 4.5 milliseconds
• Scientific data only goes back 1.5 milliseconds before
midnight
24 hours

11. Lacking Extensive Scientific Climate
Record, We must use Proxies to Help
Understand the Past
• Geologists & Paleontologists
• Anthropologists & Archaeologists
• Dendrologists & Paleoclimatologists
• Atmospheric Scientists, Speleologists
• Glaciologists

12. Some Issues with Using Proxies
• Proxies indicate “What”, but not “Why”
• Local/Regional Proxies don’t always reflect Global
• Proxies Can be Unreliable:
– Subject to interpretation by the Investigator
– QC and Processing Standards are often Ad Hoc
– Samples destroyed in Analysis are impossible to verify
– Cases of Poor Interpretation, Exaggerations or
Misrepresentation breed Skepticism

14. During the Medieval Warm Period
Vikings Explored the North Atlantic

15. Hvalsey Church Ruin in Greenland
(built ~ 1150)

16. Conditions During the Medieval
Warm Period
• Warmer conditions
– 2 to 4 degrees F higher than today
• Longer growing seasons and milder winters
• Bountiful agricultural harvests
– Wheat and vineyards in the far north
• Long stretches of regular weather (few
droughts)

17. The Fate of the Vikings
• Little Ice Age began about 1350
• Black Plague happened about the same time
Plaque in
Weymouth
England

18. • Killed 60% of
Europe’s
population
• Quarantines
for Shipping
• But in 1349 a
wool
merchant
ship with all
dead aboard
grounded on
coast of
Norway

19. The Little Ice Age was an Era of
Plagues
60 million died
1 million died
100,000 died
100,000 died
650,000 died
500,000 died

20. Vikings Abandon Greenland by 1400
• Black Plague ~ 1350
• Cooling Temperatures
brought livestock indoors
for protection & warmth
• Less fodder – livestock and
even dogs eaten
• Iron and other tools left
behind
• Declining trade from
plague-decimated Europe

21. Climate
Controversy:
“Hockey Sticks”
&“Climategate”

22. Design of a Hockey Stick
Butt
End Shaft Heel
Toe

23. One of the Most
Significant and
Unfortunate Proxy
Controversies

24. After Marginalizing the MWP and LIA, the straight
shaft was created, thus was Born the “Hockey Stick”
Analogy

25. The Sheep Mountain Bristlecone Pines,
some of the oldest living organisms on
the planet ~ 5,000 years old!

26. Bristlecone
Pines
• Oldest non-clonal living
organism > 5,000 yrs old
• Found in Southwest US
• Grows on dolomite slopes
• Annual rainfall < 12” year
• Individual needles live 40 years
• Far more reactive to
precipitation than temperature

27. McKitrick & McIntyre
• Questioned tree ring data and dug deeper
• Mann refused to release his data
• Eventually got Access to Data and found:
– Mann’s algorithms flattened temps in middle ages
and favored upspike at the present
– “Desirable” proxies favored as much as 390:1
– So contrived, random data fed into the algorithm
could produce “desired” results
• Nature reportedly declined to publish
retraction or rebuttal indicating they felt it
would be “too confusing” to their readers

28. In the Meantime
• Mann’s paper, matched the
policy-influencing narrative
IPCC wanted
• Mann, at the relatively young
age of 35 became one of 8
lead authors of the IPCC
Third Assessment Report in
2001
• He became a recognized
expert overnight
• But then, inexplicably, the
planet quit warming for a
decade

29. “Climategate”
• In 2009 the UEA’s Climate Research Unit suffered
public disclosure of thousands of emails
• Embarrassing and unprofessional, churlish and
spiteful at times, intent on colluding to deceive and
then destroying evidence of any collusion
• Hacked or Leaked? Never solved…
University of East Anglia

30. Selected Climategate Emails from Phil Jones,
Head of Climate Research Unit (CRU)
• "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years and from 1961 for Keith's to
hide the decline.“
• From 2005: And don't leave stuff lying around on ftp sites - you
never know who is trawling them. The two MMs have been after
the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom
of Information Act now in the UK, I think I'll delete the file rather
than send to anyone. Does your similar act in the US force you to
respond to enquiries within 20 days?—our does! The UK works on
precedents, so the first request will test it. We also have a Data
Protection Act, which I will hide behind.
• May 2008, Jones asked Mann: "Can you delete any emails you may
have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise.... Can you also
email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't have his new email
address."

31. With all of this seeming subterfuge and pretense, you
don’t have to be Eliot Ness to wonder if there might
be a conspiracy

32. Of Course this
was a Gift to the
Media

33. Hockey Stick and Climategate Fallout
• Michael Mann
– continues to defend his work
– critics continue to attack it
• IPCC assessments every 6 years:
– 3rd in 2001 reflected Mann’s Hockey Stick graph
– 4th in 2007 Hockey Stick gone but “Hide the Decline” in effect
– 5th in 2013 more nuanced and carefully composed
• The “Hockey Stick” and “Climategate”
concerns may have been well-meant attempts
to focus attention on a looming global
concern, but likely unintentionally hurt their
central cause by fueling skepticism

34. Richard Muller, PHD
- Professor Emeritus, Department of Physics
at University of California at Berkeley
- Sr. Scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National
Lab and Institute for Nuclear and Particle
Astrophysics
- Columnist for MIT’s Technology Review
If you are concerned about global warming (as I
am) and think that human-created carbon dioxide
may contribute (as I do) to global warming, then
you should still agree that we are much better off
for having broken the hockey stick. Misinformation
can do real harm.

35. Greenhouse
Gases

36. Mauna Loa Solar
Observatory
Located at elevation
11,500 feet, the MLSO
has gotten up to 6
inches of snow

37. • Seasonal Flux – Vegetative Uptake into plant mass each summer
• There is no question Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the
Atmosphere are rapidly increasing due to Anthropogenic
Activities

38. The Greenhouse Effect

39. Greenhouse Gasses
Chemical
Formula
Pre-industrial
Concentration
Concentration
in 2010
Atmospheric
Lifetime (years)
Global
Warming
Potential
(GWP)
Carbon dioxide CO2 280 ppmv 385 ppmv 50-200 1
Methane CH4 700 ppbv 1866 ppbv 12-17 21
Nitrous oxide N2O 275 ppbv 323 ppbv 120-150 310
Chlorofluoro-
carbons (CFCs)
CFC-12 0 537 pptv 102 125-152
Hydrochlorofluoro-
carbons (HCFCs)
HCFC-22 0 210 pptv 13 125
Perfluorocarbon CF4 0 110 pptv 50,000 6,500
Sulfur hexa-
fluoride
SF6 0 6.84 pptv 1,000 23,900
Greenhouse Gas Potency Chart

40. Greenhouse Gasses
Chemical
Formula
Pre-industrial
Concentration
Concentration
in 2010
Atmospheric
Lifetime (years)
Global
Warming
Potential
(GWP)
Carbon dioxide CO2 280 ppmv 385 ppmv 50-200 1
Methane CH4 700 ppbv 1866 ppbv 12-17 21
Nitrous oxide N2O 275 ppbv 323 ppbv 120-150 310
Chlorofluoro-
carbons (CFCs)
CFC-12 0 537 pptv 102 125-152
Hydrochlorofluoro-
carbons (HCFCs)
HCFC-22 0 210 pptv 13 125
Perfluorocarbon CF4 0 110 pptv 50,000 6,500
Sulfur hexa-
fluoride
SF6 0 6.84 pptv 1,000 23,900
Carbon Dioxide Serves as the
Baseline GG

41. Greenhouse Gasses
Chemical
Formula
Pre-industrial
Concentration
Concentration
in 2010
Atmospheric
Lifetime (years)
Global
Warming
Potential
(GWP)
Carbon dioxide CO2 280 ppmv 385 ppmv 50-200 1
Methane CH4 700 ppbv 1866 ppbv 12-17 21
Nitrous oxide N2O 275 ppbv 323 ppbv 120-150 310
Chlorofluoro-
carbons (CFCs)
CFC-12 0 537 pptv 102 125-152
Hydrochlorofluoro-
carbons (HCFCs)
HCFC-22 0 210 pptv 13 125
Perfluorocarbon CF4 0 110 pptv 50,000 6,500
Sulfur hexa-
fluoride
SF6 0 6.84 pptv 1,000 23,900
Methane is 21 Times Worse in Global
Warming Potential than CO2

42. Greenhouse Gasses
Chemical
Formula
Pre-industrial
Concentration
Concentration
in 2010
Atmospheric
Lifetime (years)
Global
Warming
Potential
(GWP)
Carbon dioxide CO2 280 ppmv 385 ppmv 50-200 1
Methane CH4 700 ppbv 1866 ppbv 12-17 21
Nitrous oxide N2O 275 ppbv 323 ppbv 120-150 310
Chlorofluoro-
carbons (CFCs)
CFC-12 0 537 pptv 102 125-152
Hydrochlorofluoro-
carbons (HCFCs)
HCFC-22 0 210 pptv 13 125
Perfluorocarbon CF4 0 110 pptv 50,000 6,500
Sulphur hexa-
fluoride
SF6 0 6.84 pptv 1,000 23,900
Sulfur Hexafluoride is almost 24,000
times worse than CO2

43. Greenhouse Gasses
Chemical
Formula
Pre-industrial
Concentration
Concentration
in 2010
Atmospheric
Lifetime (years)
Global
Warming
Potential
(GWP)
Carbon dioxide CO2 280 ppmv 385 ppmv 50-200 1
Methane CH4 700 ppbv 1866 ppbv 12-17 21
Nitrous oxide N2O 275 ppbv 323 ppbv 120-150 310
Chlorofluoro-
carbons (CFCs)
CFC-12 0 537 pptv 102 125-152
Hydrochlorofluoro-
carbons (HCFCs)
HCFC-22 0 210 pptv 13 125
Perfluorocarbon CF4 0 110 pptv 50,000 6,500
Sulfur hexa-
fluoride
SF6 0 6.84 pptv 1,000 23,900
Perfluorocarbon is so Persistent a
Molecule is Believed to Last 50,000 Years

44. Greenhouse Gasses
Chemical
Formula
Pre-industrial
Concentration
Concentration
in 2010
Atmospheric
Lifetime (years)
Global
Warming
Potential
(GWP)
Carbon dioxide CO2 280 ppmv 385 ppmv 50-200 1
Methane CH4 700 ppbv 1866 ppbv 12-17 21
Nitrous oxide N2O 275 ppbv 323 ppbv 120-150 310
Chlorofluoro-
carbons (CFCs)
CFC-12 0 537 pptv 102 125-152
Hydrochlorofluoro-
carbons (HCFCs)
HCFC-22 0 210 pptv 13 125
Perfluorocarbon CF4 0 110 pptv 50,000 6,500
Sulfur hexa-
fluoride
SF6 0 6.84 pptv 1,000 23,900
None of these Newer GGs were Present
in Atmosphere 100 Years Ago

45. Temperature and
Melting Ice

46. NOAA Adjustments to Temperature
Data Sets Have Drawn Criticism
• Reduced station count favoring
urban sites
• Change Point algorithm used
to smooth data
• Discontinued Heat Island
Adjustments
• FILNET: “creates” data to fill
gaps, extrapolated from nearby
stations

47. Remember Physicist Dr. Richard Muller?
• Gladly Broke the Hockey Stick
– “Science dictates data should be
openly and freely shared
– “If a scientist does not share his
data, source code or methods,
never trust their work!”
• Muller realized there was a need
for trustworthy temperature data
• Founded Berkley Earth in 2010

50. So Is the Earth Warming?
Baseline temperature is mean of a fairly flat period from 1951 - 1980

51. Over the Past Century Mean Summer Temperature
has Increased about 0.8 deg C (1.5 deg F)

52. Permafrost Melt Releases Trapped
Methane from Paleo Swamps in Tundra

53. But What About the Decline?
• Dr. Muller: “You cannot consider climate
objectively over a window as short as 10 – 15
years.”
• Dr. Muller: “When
climbing stairs, if you
reach a platform you
might be tempted to
think you are at the
top until you pull back
and consider the larger
picture”

54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is not a
Natural System but makes an Especially
Analogous Parallel
There have been
temporal plateaus
and declines but
when viewed
objectively over
the long term the
trend has been
upwards

55. You cannot “feel” 1.5 degrees of mean
annual temperature difference over
100 years but the effects can be seen
in critical areas

56. Athabaska Glacier,
Canadian Rockies, in
1925 and now

59. Antarctica Contains
7.2 Million cubic
miles of Ice
Greenland 0.7
Million cubic miles
of Ice

60. Arctic Sea Ice
• We have the ability to see, measure and
monitor it now with satellites
• In modern times there is often open water in
Summer

61. Sea Level Rise

62. During the Last
Glacial
Maximum,
20,000 years ago,
the Laurentide
Ice Sheet
Blanketed much
of North America
with ice up to 2
miles thick.

63. Sea Level was
300 feet lower
than today.
The areas in
Orange would
have been
exposed.

65. How Much is 3 millimeters a Year?

67. Closer to Home:
The City of Miami
Beach
(Alton Road Area during King Tides)

68. Online Sea Level Rise Tools
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
– Office for Coastal Management
• Sea Level Rise Viewer
– http://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr
• Climate Central (Independent NGO)
– Surging Seas Interactive Viewer
• http://ss2.climatecentral.org/#7/27.499/-
82.463?show=property&level=10&pois=show

69. Evidence of Past
Extreme Climate
Variation

70. Water Resource Planning
• Water systems design against droughts
• But historical stream flow records are usually
limited to < 100 years
• We have to recognize that this is a very short
representative period
• Planning only for the worse drought “on
record” may be short sighted

71. • BYU Professor Matt Bekker uses
Dendrochronology to Reconstruct Streamflow
Records for Weber River in Utah
• 16 year drought in the 1700s

72. Fallen Leaf Lake
• About 200 feet above Lake Tahoe on the Southside
below Mount Tellac
• 100 foot tall trees stand preserved underwater as
evidence of several mega droughts

73. History Teaches Extreme Climate Variation is Not Unusual

75. Texas

77. California Drought
Lake
Shasta

78. Projected
Climate
Conditions

79. Projecting Future
Conditions

80. • NCA predicts
we will
experience
more hot days

81. • NCA predicts
Florida to
have drier
Springs and
Summers

82. Conclusions

83. Conclusions to Part 1
• Climate Science scandals fuel skepticism
• Special interests affect policy formulation
• Climate science is a young field and there is a
lot we do not understand yet
• However, Man’s imprint on the earth is
undeniable:
– CO2 levels higher than anytime in the past 5M
years
– CO2 levels have only risen faster than this before in
conjunction with volcanic mass extinction events

84. Conclusions to Part 1
• Other GGs are also rising (CH4 ,CFCs, etc.)
• Earth is Currently Warming
– (1.5 deg. F over the past century)
• Sea Level is Rising due ice melt & thermal
expansion of oceans
• This will have Disruptive Impacts on Coastal
Regions
• Rates of Change are Slow
• Climate Change cannot be seen year-to-year
but must be studied over decades

85. Conclusions
• Come back after a short break for Part 2 and I
will explain some Adaptive Management
Planning initiatives at the Peace River
Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority