New approach in failure analysis by integrated multi-stakeholder's mental models with project life cycle

1. FAILURE ANALYSIS OF MALFUNCTION WATER
RESOURCES PROJECT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
THAILAND:
INTEGRATED MENTAL MODELS AND PROJECT LIFE CYCLE
PERSPECTIVE APPROACH
By
Piriya URAIWONG
Kochi University of Technology
Advisor: Professor, Dr.Tsunemi Watanabe
Examination Committee: Professor, Dr.Seigo Nasu
Professor, Dr.Osamu Tomisawa
Professor, Dr.Yoshinori Nakagawa
Associate Professor, Dr.Takashi Goso
2013/2/12

2. Research questions
Answer 1. Causes of this malfunction? Determine
2. Stakeholder’s behavior associated
with malfunction?
3. Solution for the problem?
Conclusions Research Methodology
problem
1. Identified failure
Malfunction 1. Failure analysis
causes and
water 2. Stakeholder’s
solutions
resources mental models
2. New failure
project analysis
analysis approach
1. Integrated mental models with
WBS in project life cycle
perspective
Permit 2. Multi-Stakeholder’s behavior in Produce
malfunction project
Results 2

3. Defining “Malfunction” and “Failure”
• “Malfunction”- Fail to work normally or
properly (v.), failure of this kind (n.)
(Oxford advanced learner’s dictionary,1989)
• “Failure” – The inability of the project to
deliver the intended benefit to the identified
stakeholders
• Many levels of failure- from mild failure to
complete failure (Layton, 2011)
3

4. Problem statement
• Malfunction small-scaled water resources
project – “a project that Fail to work normally
or properly to deliver the intended benefit to
the identified stakeholders”
4

5. Problem statement
5%
8% 17%
Good condition
Minor reconstruction
Rehabilitation
27%
43% Re-construction
Rejected
Water resources project condition
(Department of Water Resources: DWR, 2008)
5

6. Research objectives
1. To identify factors which cause malfunction
in water resources project
2. To study behavior of key stakeholder who
participated in malfunction of water
resources project
3. To offer tools and methods that loosen
constraints regarding malfunction water
resources project
6

7. Research questions
RQ1 • What are factors which cause an malfunction
of water resources project?
• What are behavior of key stakeholder’s who
RQ2 participated in malfunction of water
resources project?
• What would be proposed measures or
RQ3 mechanism to improve water resources
project management in Thailand?
7

8. Methodology
8

9. Research methodology
1. Preliminary diagnose malfunction project:
Failure Knowledge Database
Develop analysis method
2. Introducing integrated failure analysis approach
Application to cases
3. Multi-Stakeholder’s mental models analysis
Constraint-measure
4. Proposes measures and action plan
9

10. Introducing integrated mental models
and project life cycle approach for
failure analysis
10

11. Previous work on failure analysis
• Check sheets and Modified Pareto analysis (1897)
• Cause-and-effect diagram (Ishikawa
diagrams, 1960’s)
• Fault tree analysis (Fussel, 1976)
• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: FMEA (IEEE
std 352)
• Failure knowledge database (Hatamura, 2005)
• Integrated Water Resources Management (1992)
11

12. Limitation of conventional analysis and
Proposal of new approach
• Conventional analysis -> Less include
stakeholder’s mindset in failure analysis
Recommendation
Root cause
Data collection generation and
identification
implementation
Integrate
Propose -> Overcome limitation of
Stakeholder’s
mindset
regardless complexity of stakeholder
mindset and behavior associated with a
failure project
12

13. Mental models
• “The images (attitudes and assumptions) we
carry in our minds about ourselves, other
people, institutions, and every aspect of the
world which guide our interpretations and
behavior.”
(HSBC sign ad)
13

14. Coding and mapping mental models
Stakeholder
semi- Coding Mapping
structured
interview
Statement
Network of
concepts concepts
Influence
(Adapted from Carley, 1997) map
14

15. Key aspects and process of mental
models of an individual in decision
influence Heuristics/
(1) Selective Mental models
observation biases
(2) Perception
Background: personal, cultural, education
(changed) Individual
(4) (3)
Action Situation (AS)
Framing issue Mental models
/ Outcome
processing
Action Possible actions &
effects
(Adapted from Isendahl, 2010) 15

16. Mental models and situations
Project
AS1 AS2 AS3 AS4 AS5
Mental Mental Mental
models 1 models 2 models 3
AS = Action situation (Pahl-Wostl et.al., 2006)
16

17. Project life cycle and work breakdown
structure
The project life cycle
Initiating and Operation and
Construction
Planning Maintenance
Work Work Work
element 1.1 element 2.1 element 3.1
Work Work Work
element 1.2 element 2.2 element 3.2
17
(Haugan, 2003)

18. Chronological progression of failure
Background
Cause Event Action Sequel
(Result)
(Hatamura, 2005)
18

19. Integrated approach
Differences
of actual
situation
Influence Consequence Integrate
Influence
19

20. Integrated framework
Stakeholder 1 Stakeholder 2 Stakeholder 3
Mental Mental Mental Cause/
models 1 models 2 models 3 Background
Planning phase AS 1.1 AS 2.1 AS 3.1
Event/
Construction phase AS 1.2 AS 2.2 AS 3.2 Action
Operation and AS 2.3
AS 1.3 AS 3.3
maintenance phase
Result/ Sequel
20

21. Integrated process
1. Define problem context:
project, phenomenal, etc. (by Failure
knowledge database and project lifecycle and
work breakdown structure)
2. Identify stakeholders and elicit stakeholder’s
mental models
3. Apply multi-stakeholder’s mental models
under project life cycle and work breakdown
structure
21

22. Practical application of integrated
approach
22

23. Failure Knowledge Database
Cause
Actions
Results
(Hatamura, 2005)
23

24. Initial diagnosed factors related to
malfunction project
01. Occurrence of abnormal
02. Insufficient knowledge
Causes
:
08. Poor concept
09. Poor planning
: Actions
15. Self-protection
16. Economic loss
: Results
21. External damage
24
(Complete result can be found in attachment # 1)

25. Case study I
Fractures on Broken radial
Downstream concrete gates with stolen
blockage structure pulleys
25

26. Case study II
No use of canal
Structural (growing rice in
No area the canal)
failure maintenance
26

27. Semi-structured interview
Interviewee group Number
Officer in the Department of Water
5
Resources (DWR)
Officer in the Local Administration
4
Office (LAO)
Project user 12
Total 21
27

28. Partial mental models influence
diagram
The DWR lack of The DWR lack of training
continuity to follow and education in project
up the project operation and
maintenance
Project user
disregard of
procedure No specific budget
for maintenance
work
Project user lack of
maintenance
Idea of “I need
water, but I don’t Malfunction of project
want to fix when
the project is
broken” 28

29. DWR-HQ03 mental models influence
diagram the Bureau of Budget didn't
see importance of
bureaucratic reform of the maintenance budget
Thai government in October
DWR-HQ03 2002
establishment of no maintenance budget
when the DWR was
the DWR
established
human resource
management problem of agency solving by making
projects under the ARD
shortage number alliance
organization vision, were transfered to the DWR
mission and policy design
budget and
the DWR transfers adaptation of officers projects inventory small public hearing technology support
knowledge to local from various agencies system process for couple hours
administration
the Decentralization process of budget budget and projects
approvement took almost inventory approvement from previous constitution didn't
Act 1999
2-3 years the cabinet put people at center pay attention on public
project O&M, project and adjust ourselve participation
management, establishment of projects transfer to local creat the DWR
water user group adminstration office value trust from local is the
different budget system most important
from the DWR problem in public
no budget for project no activity on lack of continuity on participation
project maintenance attitude of the
maintenance projects DWR officers
local administration office's regional office annual
budget problems in first transfered project negotiation with
facing problem implementation plan
couple years politician public participation process
malfunction not sharing experiences and stated in the Prime Minister
projects problems in public Office Regulation
the local administration participation work
need to manage their own projects proposed projects proposed by
budget tendency of by politicain
running by own technical support no attention on maintenance local's need
decreasing in number
fund from the DWR work for projects transfered
from the ARD government implement
the DWR more public participation
coordination between
locals satisfy with a implementation plan politician, the DWR and activity
the DWR does not increasing income
support budget all time establishment of project local is needed
water user group
area development regional office pay regional office project
otherwise they will
cooperation between attention on new project responsibility maintenance work
only wait for help
the DWR and locals the DWR provide local local feel that the DWR
a stage to speak doesn't leave them
integrated work of
bureaus in the DWR proposal on hiring consultant
company for public
participation work
29

30. KY-LAO02 mental models influence
diagram
no water user group for
free access insufficient water the weir project drastic water fluctuation heavy traffic over
quantity for agriculture in dry and wet season
flooding use the weir
Kud Sri Pum weir the pulley was
pumping station and user project stolen slump and cracks
decision made by
group establishment occurance on the
majority of water users infrastructure
no bridge to cross the
unable to close
stream in this area lack of knowledge on
the gate
project operation and
conflict resolution done by maintenance
voting among water users malfunction of the
function as a bridge to cross a unequal benefit disign rule preventing project
among water users overloaded truck to cross
canal to transport agriculture
product the weir
perceive as project
working well
afraid of occurance of
social mechanism serious structure damages in
problems related to
tax payers preventing personal incooperate with future
this project selfishness the TAO
becoming the TAO
expectation of benefit burden
looking for solution from from the local percieved as sense request full rehabilitation of
the TAO as priority administration of ownership project to be in a good
condition
rejection on project
villager benefit lost transfer from the DWR
the TAO responsibility
for all civil work
KY-LAO01 mental models accept the project
the TAO from the DWR
project damages
uncapable of help
assesment
under capability of over capability of
the TAO the TAO solving problem by
themselves at last
looking for help from
repair work
othe agencies 30

31. KY-LV06 mental models influence
diagram
small storage tempolary weir
and always broken in rain
season KY-LV06
discussion among local
small conflict between negotiation by
villagers for new wier
upstream and downstream villager chief
villager chief requested
the politician contacted project was
project to the local rule for water intake from the
the ARD agnency constructed meeting among
politician stream from villagers's villagers
agreement
difficult to get a function as a
project water usage for
bridge pumping station
agriculture
villagers agree and
need to take care of monitoring respect the rule
a project overloaded truck pulley chain was
serving half of the
broken sub-district area
fixed by villagers's pulleys were stolen if budget is sufficient,
money villagers will help to take
buy new pulley from care a project
old concrete villagers's money
water leaking from two out of four sluice
broken rubber seal spillway gate are not working limited budget of the
around the sluicegate DWR and the TAO large amount of water
released from the dam in
water leaking from one time
the gate project understanding the
explanation and malfunctions limitation flooding weir structure is
compromisation by secured
villager chief no maintenance
plan poor road damages on negotiation with the dam
maintenance work agriculture products
condition on water release regulation
by the DWR
difficulty in consensus on
so far we can use
public property issue
unwilling to spend much it, it's ok
money on public looking for appropriate
no cooperation with adding riprap at difficulty in agriculture income lost
maintenance work compensation from the dam
the TAO downstream product transport
concern for personal
benefit rather than public
unwilling to share
responsibility but want the
sometimes fix some damages
because villagers benefit from
benefit from a project is
percieved as sense of
31
benefit same benefit a project ownership22

32. Malfunction influence diagram
Stakeholder A Stakeholder B Stakeholder C
Mental Mental Mental
Planning
phase
Work models models models
element
AS1 AS1 AS1
Mental Mental Mental
Construction
Work models models models
phase
element
AS2 AS2 AS2
Mental Mental Mental
phase
O& M
Work models models models
element AS3 AS3 AS3
Sequel 32

33. Malfunction influence diagram
Department of Water Resources Local Administration Project User
Office
Low attention Being ignored
development
Being ignored
in stakeholder from from
Project
Less public
phase
participation participation participation participation
activity
No long-term No project Low project
plan Poor planning involvement information sharing
Construction
Focus on project No training for No involvement in No involvement in
operation and construction construction
phase
delivery
maintenance
No Expect
Project’s No knowledge knowledge benefit from
infrastructure project
maintenance
No maintenance No Fear of burden No benefit
Operation
from project
phase
budget maintenance and loosing face
and
Minor Avoidance of Ignorance of
damages responsibility damages
Mental
models
Malfunction project
Actual 33
situation

34. Case I
34

35. Case II
35

36. Summary of mental models toward
project management
Perspective Department of Local Administration Project Users
Water Resources Office
Priority of project Delivery of Responsibility for all Water needs and
goals construction infrastructure project water usage
project
Main driving Organization Community Economic
force missions and development incentives
regulations
Timescale of Short to medium Long term Long term
implementation term
Ownership of the Authority from law Local authority and Based on benefit
project and regulation organization capability from a project
Responsibility of Central authority Local authority and Based on benefit
operation and and available available budget from a project
maintenance budget 36

37. Summary of mental models toward
project management
Perspective Department of Water Local Administration Project Users
Resources Office
Causes of - Budget constraint - Budget constraint - Self-interest in
malfunction - No project life cycle - Limited number priority
/ Constraints management plan of skilled-workers - Lack of
- Politician - Fear of burden knowledge in
interference from malfunction operation and
- Corruption project maintenance
- Lack of coordination - Absence of
between units in responsibility
the organization sharing
- Low quality control - Ignorance of
in construction malfunction
work - Belief in
politician’s power
37

38. Identified constraints
Lack of planning for implementation of the
DWR
Capacity of the DWR and staff in project
management
Absence of stakeholder participation
DWR= the Department of Water Resources 38

39. Proposed measures
39

40. Constraints and proposed measures
Constraint 1: Thematic 1:
Lack of planning for Utilization project life cycle
implementation of the DWR planning and management
Constraint 2: Thematic 2:
Capacity of the DWR and Improving the DWR capacity
staff in project management to deliver service
Constraint 3: Thematic 3:
Absence of stakeholder Stakeholder participation
participation and building capacity
DWR= the Department of Water Resources 40

41. Thematic 1: Utilization project life
cycle planning and management
Identification
Evaluation Appraisal
Operation
and Financing
maintenance
Construction
41

42. Thematic 1: Utilization project life
cycle planning and management
Project phase Proposed measures
Project identification 1. The DWR should conduct situation and
problem analysis and stakeholder
Identification
analysis
Evaluation Appraisal 2. Incorporate “Hierarchical cooperative
objectives or goals” in the project
identification process
Operation
and Financing
maintenance
Construction
42

43. Thematic 1: Utilization project life
cycle planning and management
Project phase Proposed measures
Project appraisal 1. The DWR should concern on the
Identification
sustainability aspects of the project
formulation
Evaluation Appraisal
2. Project should have capacity to
Operation
continue and become sustainable
and
maintenance
Financing without external support
Construction
3. Estimation the life cycle cost over the
whole life of the project or at least first
four years is needed
43

44. Thematic 1: Utilization project life
cycle planning and management
Project phase Proposed measures
Project financial 1. The DWR’s executive negotiation with
management the Bureau of Budget on operational
and maintenance fund
Identification
Evaluation Appraisal
Operation
and Financing
maintenance
Construction
44

45. Thematic 1: Utilization project life
cycle planning and management
Project phase Proposed measures
Project construction 1. Formulate the construction quality
and quality control control committee composed of
representatives from the DWR, the
Identification
Local Administration Office and project
Evaluation Appraisal
2. Foster a proper sense of professional
ethics in the DWR staff of pride in the
Operation
and Financing work and the value of the job
maintenance
Construction
3. Continual education, training and
monitoring system are necessary
45

46. Thematic 1: Utilization project life
cycle planning and management
Project phase Proposed measures
Project operation and 1. Established the provisional operation plan and
maintenance phase maintenance schedule
2. The DWR should take a role of a facilitator to
Identification facilitate the technical issues
3. Maintain a performance database including
Evaluation Appraisal maintenance records, condition assessment
data and other items
4. Periodic inspection in project performance is
Operation needed
and Financing
maintenance 5. Adequate funding and resources must be
Construction
secured for the operation and maintenance
6. Establish the emergency maintenance fund at
the central office
46

47. Thematic 1: Utilization project life
cycle planning and management
Project phase Proposed measures
Project monitoring 1. Framework of the project assessment
and evaluation system
Identification
Evaluation Appraisal
Operation
and Financing
maintenance
Construction
47

48. Framework of the project assessment system
Indicator categories
Index Themes Resources used correctly
Obtained result compared to result used
Complication of project management
Efficiency
Stakeholder relationship
Implemented activities compared to
objectives and plan
Effectiveness Degree of achieving expected results
Overall Long-term impact on the project
assessment surrounding environment
Impact Direct and indirect change produced by the
project
Likelihood the benefit produced by the
project to continue without external
Sustainability subsidies
Capacity of organization established for the
project
Developed competencies of staff 48

49. Thematic 2: Improving the DWR
capacity to deliver service
Establishment of “the capacity building unit”
• provide training, technical assistance and
management support service
Identify and develop a series of practical
guidelines for operation
• Review process of project planning, designing,
construction and implementing
• Guideline for appropriate and effective public
participation, etc.
49

50. Thematic 3: Stakeholder participation
and capacity building
Stakeholder participation and stakeholder
capacity building program is a repetitive activity
• could be achieved through supportive reasonable
budget
Diagnose and identify particular factors that can
make public participation difficult to implement
• describe the difficulties and identifies practice
Be carefully in adopting a process for selecting
best techniques and tools for the situation
50

51. Propose of Beneficiary Contribution
Approach
1. Scheme is identified by local with technical
supports and construction work from the DWR
2. Beneficiaries and related stakeholders must be
involved in all stages
3. Scheme must produce sufficient benefit for
project life cycle management
4. Beneficiaries contribute equivalent to the cost of
first year of Operation and maintenance
5. Monitoring and evaluation system must be
applied to project
51

52. Stages in Beneficiary Contribution
Approach
III: Construction
and operation and
maintenance
II: Water users’ phase
cooperative • Beneficiary
establishment and a contribution
project plan • Project O&M
development phase supported by the
I: Development of DWR
• Detailed design& Cost
project preliminary
• Stakeholder analysis
phase
• Water user
• Preliminary design cooperative
• Information organization & MOU
sharing
52

53. Conclusion
53

54. Conclusion 1: Integrated stakeholder’s
mental models in failure analysis
• Applicable and useful method
54

55. Conclusion 2: Causes of malfunction
project
– Lack of planning for implementation of the
Department of Water Resources (DWR)
– Capacity of the DWR and staff in project planning
and management; and
– Absence of stakeholder participation and
stakeholder capacity building
55

56. Conclusion 3: Stakeholder’s behavior
• The Department of Water Resources (DWR)
– Focusing on delivery project side
– Low respond to project operation and maintenance
management demand
• Local administration office
– Recognized their limitation of budget and low capability
– Avoid or transfer burden may occurred from malfunction
project to the project owner
• Project users
– Very sensitive, income is main driving force
– Disregard of maintenance  ignorance after project
became malfunction and made no benefit  the project
was abandoned 56

57. Conclusion 4: Proposed measures
• Three thematic
– Thematic 1:Utilization project life cycle planning
and management
– Thematic 2:Improving the DWR capacity
to deliver service
– Thematic 3:Stakeholder participation and building
capacity
• Beneficiary contribution approach
57

58. Publications
58

59. Publications
International Journal
1. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2012). “Small-scaled water
resources project in Thailand: Failure analysis and
improvement of stakeholder involvement”. Journal of
Society for Social Management Systems (Peer-reviewed)
serial SMS12-6080.
2. Komatsu T., Nakaya S., Uraiwong P., and Watanabe T. "Multi-
Stakeholder Mental Model in Monobe River Improvement
and Maintenance. "Journal of Society for Social
Management Systems (Peer-reviewed) serial SMS12-9459.
3. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2011). “Stakeholder analysis of
water resources projects in Thailand”. Journal of Society for
Social Management Systems (Peer-reviewed) serial SMS11-
5587.
59

60. Publications
International Conference
1. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2012). “Small-scaled water resources
project in Thailand: Failure analysis and improvement of stakeholder
involvement”. The 8th International Symposium on Social Management
Systems SSMS2012 - Disaster Prevention and Reconstruction
Management -, 2-4 May 2012, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, R.O.C.
2. Komatsu T., Nakaya S., Uraiwong P., and Watanabe T. (2012). "Multi-
Stakeholder Mental Model in Monobe River Improvement and
Maintenance. The 8th International Symposium on Social Management
Systems SSMS2012 - Disaster Prevention and Reconstruction
Management -, 2-4 May 2012, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, R.O.C.
3. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2011). “Stakeholder analysis of water
resources projects in Thailand”. IESL-SSMS Joint International
Symposium on Social Management Systems 2011, 14-16 September
2011, Colombo, Sri Lanka
60

61. Publications
International Conference (cont.)
4. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2012). "Public Awareness
Campaigns and Education Program in the Monobe River."
Thailand-Japan International Academic Conference 2012
Proceeding. Tokyo, Japan, October 2012
5. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2011). "Model for Small-scaled
Water Resources Project Development: Based on Thai Case."
Thailand-Japan International Academic (TJIA) Conference 2011.
Tokyo, Japan, November 2011
6. Uraiwong, P. & Watanabe T. (2010). “Community mechanisms
for water resources risk management”. Proceeding of
International conference for a sustainable Greater Mekong
Subregion, King Mongkut’s University of
Technology, Bangkok, Thailand,26-27 August 2010, pp.431-434.
61

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