Energy Management: Future City

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Energy Management for Future Cities, Peak Oil, South East Asia, Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur

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Energy Management: Future City

  1. 1. Building and Facilities Maintenance Venue : Prince Hotel & Residence Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Conference Date : 22 February 2010 Energy Management for Future Cities By Harjono Zainal Abidin Chairman QUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd harjono@geocities.com 019-6939786
  2. 2. Speaker <ul><li>Harjono Zainal Abidin </li></ul><ul><li>Consulting Project Manager </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Specializing in Planning & Risk Management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Industry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy/Oil & Gas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Telecommunications/Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Facilities Engineer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Design Engineering & Construction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operations & Maintenance </li></ul></ul>Internet Data Center Standby Genset for 24X7 Power Offshore Oil Platform – High Reliability Systems
  3. 3. Macro-view of Facility Management <ul><li>Cities as an assemblage of buildings & support infrastructure for human activity. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Business/Trade </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Learning/Universities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Economic environment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crisis …! </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. The first City Hanging Gardens of Babylon Center of Empire, Kowledge & Trade 5,000 BC Followed by India & China ….
  5. 5. Trade Routes
  6. 6. 21 st Century <ul><li>“ The 19th century was a century of empires, the 20th century was a century of nation states. The 21st century will be a century of cities.” </li></ul><ul><li>– Wellington E. Webb, former Mayor of Denver, Colorado </li></ul><ul><li>Source IBM Institute for Business Value 2009 </li></ul>Global Internet Map Source Telegeography
  7. 7. City Systems <ul><li>Cities systems and their interrelationships within the larger framework of the city’s strategy and governance. </li></ul><ul><li>Source: IBM Center for Economic Development analysis. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Cities 100 years ago ….. <ul><li>A century ago, fewer than 20 cities around the world had populations in excess of 1 million people. Today, that number has swelled to 450 and will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Cities in South East Asia to-day! <ul><li>Settlements of varying size facilitate different scale economies </li></ul><ul><li>Source: World Bank Report </li></ul>Kuala Lumpur Jakarta
  10. 10. Status of our cities Kuala Lumpur Jakarta
  11. 11. Kuala Lumpur Traffic Jam
  12. 12. Economic crisis?
  13. 13. Case Study: Argentina <ul><li>In Argentina at the height of the financial crisis 1998 - 2002, the city systems broke down </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Communications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Waste </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul></ul>Depositors protest the freezing of their accounts. Their mostly dollar-denominated accounts were converted to Pesos at less than half their new value
  14. 14. World Bank Report <ul><li>Will Cities Survive the Financial Crisis? </li></ul><ul><li>As world markets suffer, cities in developing nations will inevitably feel the pain most sharply </li></ul><ul><li>Cities capture the unique benefits of economic density and are important for the prosperity of nations, both in good times and in bad </li></ul><ul><li>Policymakers should try to make cities work well instead of worrying about their size </li></ul><ul><li>February 3, 2009—Consider three cities in the developing world that will be hit early and hard by the worldwide economic downturn. </li></ul><ul><li>Singapore may be the first Asian economy to enter a recession. </li></ul><ul><li>Shenzhen in Southern China is preparing to deal with massive job losses, especially in contract manufacturing. </li></ul><ul><li>In South India's Sriperumbudur, falling demand may mean that plans by companies such as Hyundai to expand plants are scaled back. </li></ul><ul><li>During the past two decades, Singapore, Shenzhen, and Sriperumbudur have served as connectors to regional and global markets, and have reaped enormous economic gains from these connections. Now, as world markets suffer, metropolises, cities and towns in developing nations will inevitably feel the pain most sharply. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Crises bring pain to integrated places, but ultimately we know that places like Singapore, Shenzhen, and Sriperumbudur will weather the storm,” says Indermit Gill, Director of the World Bank’s World Development Report (WDR) 2009 and Regional Chief Economist for the Bank’s Europe and Central Asia region. “This is because urban centers are important for the prosperity of nations, both in good times and in bad.” </li></ul><ul><li>SOURCE </li></ul><ul><li>WORLD BANK </li></ul><ul><li>http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/0,,contentMDK:22054655~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026 </li></ul>
  15. 15. The NEXT Crisis ….. <ul><li>AGENDA FEBRUARY 11, 2010, 5:47 A.M. ET </li></ul><ul><li>The Next Crisis: </li></ul><ul><li>Prepare for Peak Oil </li></ul><ul><li>As Europe's leaders gather in Brussels today, they have only one </li></ul><ul><li>crisis in mind: the debts that threaten the stability of the European Union. They are unlikely to be in any mood to listen to warnings about a different crisis that is looming and that could cause massive disruption. </li></ul><ul><li>A shortage of oil could be a real problem for the world within a fairly short period of time. It was unfortunate for the group which chose to point this out yesterday that they should have chosen to do so on the day the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, reported that the effects of the financial downturn had led to a slight downgrade in its forecast for oil consumption this year. </li></ul><ul><li>Against the gloomy economic backdrop that Europe currently provides, siren voices shrieking that a potential energy crisis is imminent and could be worse than the credit crunch are liable to be dismissed as scaremongers. </li></ul><ul><li>Source Wall St Journal </li></ul>The North Sea Shearwater platform was producing years beyond expectations.
  16. 16. What is “Peak Oil”? <ul><li>Peak Oil is also called &quot;Hubbert's Peak&quot; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Named for the Shell geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970. </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Decline in Supply <ul><li>Oil production in a given country tends to go into decline at about the halfway point because of falling pressure in the underground reservoirs, and because oil companies usually discover and exploit the largest oil fields first. </li></ul>
  18. 18. PEAK OIL WORST CASE FUTURE SCENARIO Obama 2010 2020 2030
  19. 19. PEAK OIL WORST CASE POWER SCENARIO
  20. 20. Today ….
  21. 21. What does peak oil mean for our societies? <ul><li>Our industrial societies and our financial systems were built on the assumption of continual growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth based on ever more readily available cheap oil. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Oil in particular is the most convenient and multi-purposed of these fuels. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil currently accounts for about 43% of the world's total fuel consumption, and 95% of global energy used for transportation. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil and gas are feedstocks for plastics, paints, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, electronic components, tyres and much more. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil is so important that the peak will have vast implications across the realms of war and geopolitics, medicine, culture, transport and trade, economic stability and food production. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Significantly, for every one joule of food consumed, around 10 joules of fuel energy have been used to produce it. </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Oil price spikes <ul><li>This will cause big spikes in energy prices – including natural gas and electricity – with potentially devastating economic and social impacts. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Global production of oil – including biofuels and so-called ‘nonconventional’ sources – has scarcely risen since early 2005, while the price of oil has soared from $10 per barrel in 1998 to $140 per barrel in June 2008.” </li></ul><ul><li>(U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argus Media.4) </li></ul>
  23. 23. Economic Impact <ul><li>When oil production starts to decline, the economic impact will be dramatic. </li></ul><ul><li>Economic growth is largely dependent upon a growing oil supply. The International Energy Agency has forecast oil demand to expand at a rate of 1.3% annually over the period 2004-2030. </li></ul><ul><li>But after the peak , many forecasters expect global oil production to fall at 2-4% a year , meaning that the deficit between the oil we want and the oil we get will expand by 3-5% a year. Within 10-15 years of the onset of decline we could have just half the oil supply that projections say is required to sustain economic growth . </li></ul>
  24. 24. How do we manage cities in an Energy crisis? <ul><li>Reacting to crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Short term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Basic Services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Power </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Comms </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Waste </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Encourage people to use </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>trains & bus </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>bicycles </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Not cars </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Telecommute </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Internet for work </li></ul></ul></ul>
  25. 25. Alternatives? <ul><li>Alternative fuels help but …. unless we change our lifestyles </li></ul><ul><li>these new technologies will come to naught. </li></ul>
  26. 26. What to expect?
  27. 27. What Behavioral changes are necessary? <ul><li>Western consumer lifestyle in the East? </li></ul>CHINA NEW YORK
  28. 28. Paris! <ul><li>A New Fashion Catches On in Paris: </li></ul><ul><li>Cheap Bicycle Rentals </li></ul><ul><li>By STEVEN ERLANGER </li></ul><ul><li>Published: July 13, 2008PARIS — They’re clunky, heavy and ugly, but they have become modish — and they are not this season’s platform shoes. </li></ul><ul><li>A system for renting Vélib’ bicycles has become hugely popular in Paris, where about 20,600 of the bikes are in service. </li></ul><ul><li>Self-service rental stations are ubiquitous in Paris. </li></ul><ul><li>A year after the introduction of the sturdy gray bicycles known as Vélib’s, they are being used all over Paris. The bikes are cheap to rent because they are subsidized by advertising, and other major cities, including American ones, are exploring similar projects. </li></ul><ul><li>About 20,600 Vélib’ bicycles are in service here, with more than 1,450 self-service rental stations. The stations are only some 300 yards apart, and there are four times as many as there are subway stations, even in a city so well served by its metro system. </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/world/europe/13paris.html?_r=3&oref=slogin </li></ul>A system for renting Vélib’ bicycles has become hugely popular in Paris, where about 20,600 of the bikes are in service. Self-service rental stations are ubiquitous in Paris.
  29. 29. Using the Bicycle Electric Bicycle Transportation System Monday, July 27, 2009 12:30PM - By Chris Weiss Winners of the Future City Mobility competition, Marten Wallgren, Il Choi, David Seesing and Miika Hekkinen designed this project dubbed London Garden, envisioning a cleaner, more integrated future for London’s transportation. The design begins with electric bicycles that operate in three modes: standard; exercise mode, in which resistance is added to generate and store electricity; and electric, which uses stored electricity to power a motor. The foldable bikes are designed for community use and stored in bus stops modeled to look like trees, blending seamlessly with the natural landscape. The bus stops also generate electricity using sun, wind and rain water. The bicycles work in conjunction with electric buses and taxis, where they’re brought aboard and used as seats, bringing their energy reserve in for use by the vehicles. [via Tree Hugger]
  30. 30. Energy Efficiency? <ul><li>Buildings today account for </li></ul><ul><ul><li>up to 40 percent of the world’s energy use and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>are responsible for nearly 40 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology is available today to reduce these by up to 70 percent. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>That’s as much as taking every single car, truck and bus off the road around the world. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>With prompt action and smart policies, we can fundamentally and dramatically reduce the energy needed for the buildings we live and work in every day. </li></ul><ul><li>EXAMPLES </li></ul><ul><li>from around the globe. </li></ul>
  31. 31. Sustainable Vancouver …. <ul><li>Vancouver, Canada </li></ul><ul><li>Vancouver is a coastal city, home to more than 560,000 people, and was named the world’s most livable city by the Economist magazine. It’s proved to be not only the most livable, but also Canada’s model for using renewable energy sources. </li></ul><ul><li>Vancouver has an ambitious 100-year plan for clean and green living. The city already leads the world in hydroelectric energy, which currently makes up 90 percent of its power supply. It also plans to­ reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to levels 20 percent lower than reported in 1990 during the formation of the Kyoto P­rotocol. Fossil fuels will be reduced with city investments in wind, solar, wave and tidal energy systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Additionally as part of its energy-efficient plans, Vancouver hasn't been shy with implementing emerging technologies. Solar-powered trash compactors have sprung up around the city, each the size equivalent to a normal trashcan but able to hold five times the waste (which puts fewer emissions-spewing garbage trucks on the roads). </li></ul>SOURCE Sustainable Vancouver http://www.cityofvancouver.us/sustainability.asp
  32. 32. Florida USA <ul><li>First City Powered by Solar Energy </li></ul><ul><li>Planned in Florida </li></ul><ul><li>Submitted by khalifa saber on Friday, 10 April 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>A Florida developer unveiled plans today to build the nation’s first solar-powered city. The ambitious plan announced on Thursday is for a 19,500-home city with energy-efficient buildings that will be “the first city on earth powered by zero-emission solar energy.” </li></ul><ul><li>The new city, “Babcock Ranch” would be built on 17,000 acres in Charlotte and Lee counties, with more than half of the land set aside for nature preserves, agriculture and other open space. It will include one of the world’s largest photovoltaic power plant, a 75-megawatt solar photovoltaic array, which will be operated by Florida Power & Light to supply electricity to the development’s 6 million square feet of residential, industrial and retail buildings. These will all be certified green and surrounded by thousands of acres of open space. </li></ul><ul><li>Developer Syd Kitson is betting heavily that he is going to attract investors, businesses and 45,000 residents to his $2 billion ranch community, which he plans to start building next year. He is promising 19,500 homes, 20,000 permanent jobs, open spaces and plenty of carbon-free megawatts. </li></ul>
  33. 33. Europe URBACT <ul><li>URBAN ACTION </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Crisis: Cities' Responses and Resources </li></ul><ul><li>http://urbact.eu/?id=1529 </li></ul><ul><li>The current global economic crisis is having an impact across Europe, in a variety of forms and contexts. It is clear that cities and local governments are on the front line of the crisis, in terms of its impact on people, businesses and places. From sheer necessity, cities have also already started to explore a wide range of responses. </li></ul><ul><li>The URBACT Programme currently supports 44 projects of 255 cities in all 27 EU Member States as well as Norway and Switzerland, working together to learn how to deal with some of the major economic, social and environmental challenges facing European citizens today. The economic crisis has dramatically altered the context in which they are operating. </li></ul><ul><li>As a response URBACT has launched a study on the impact of the economic crisis and the responses developed by the URBACT II partner cities to address the recession. The study started in September 2009 and the survey ….. </li></ul>
  34. 34. <ul><li>Solar Cities - a vision of the future </li></ul><ul><li>Australia's Solar Cities are Adelaide, Alice Springs, Blacktown, Central Victoria, Moreland, Perth and Townsville. </li></ul><ul><li>Each Solar City will integrate a unique combination of energy options such as energy efficiency measures for homes and businesses, the use of solar technologies, cost reflective pricing trials to reward people who use energy wisely, and community education about better energy usage in an increasingly energy-reliant world. </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.environment.gov.au/settlements/solarcities/ </li></ul><ul><li>PERTH </li></ul><ul><li>Perth Solar City is the newest Australian Government Solar City and will be delivered to communities within Perth’s Eastern region over the next 4 years….designed to help communities rethink the way they produce, use and save energy. </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.perthsolarcity.com.au/about/ </li></ul>Australia's Solar Cities
  35. 35. Masdar Abu Dhabi NORMAN FOSTER’S GREEN DESERT UTOPIA In Abu Dhabi http://www.inhabitat.com/2007/05/09/norman-fosters-green-desert-utopia-in-dubai/ Not settling for mere zero-energy, Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill’s Masdar Headquarters are setting new design standards for green building, with their scheme that generates more energy than it consumes. The Masdar Headquarters building outside of Abu Dhabi is also the first building in history to generate power for its own assembly, using a solar roof pier that will be built first to power the rest of the construction.
  36. 36. China <ul><li>US-China collaboration: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Green Building Design : For the 2008 Olympics in Beijing China, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) teamed up with the Beijing Science and Technology Group to focus on developing green goals, one of them being the development of Chinese green building standards. With the assistance of Joseph Huang of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the DOE also provided technical design review and energy analysis for the design of the Beijing Olympic Village. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainable Development : Heller Manus Architects based in San Francisco, California was selected by Guangzhou City, China’s third largest city, to develop and design a master plan based on eco-city and smart growth design principals. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart Grid : Intel and the State Grid Corporation of China Lab worked together to develop grid modeling and simulation software, network isolation, power station automation, and applications of embedded technologies. </li></ul></ul>Guangzhou - China’s third largest city Source Green Architecture And Building Report http://www.gabreport.com/gabreport/2009/11/2nd-annual-uschina-green-energy-conference-a-catalyst-for-change-and-innovation.html
  37. 37. Conclusion <ul><li>Global oil production is at or near a peak </li></ul><ul><li>and a permanent decline will follow. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Life and societies will change forever: our transport systems, how we produce food, where we work and live esp in cities with tall buildings & highways. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Local government policies need to be changed , if we are to have any chance of mitigating the economic effects of peak oil. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The continued expansion of road and air infrastructure no longer makes any sense. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Food supplies should be our primary concern. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>In a world of constrained transport, food security will increasingly depend upon local supply. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  38. 38. Where are we today? <ul><li>Based on consensus it is likely that global oil production will ‘peak’ and go into sustained decline within the next few years if it has not done so already. </li></ul>
  39. 39. Last word … <ul><li>The most fundamental change needed is in the way people think. </li></ul><ul><li>Local policy will be fundamental to the transition to a lean-energy future. </li></ul><ul><li>Thank You </li></ul>
  40. 40. READINGS THE NEXT CRISIS: PREPARE FOR PEAK OIL By PATIENCE WHEATCROFT FEBRUARY 11, 2010, 5:47 A.M. ET http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704140104575057260398292350.html?mod=wsj_share_facebook Peak Oil Primer http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php A New Fashion Catches On in Paris: Cheap Bicycle Rentals By STEVEN ERLANGER Published: July 13, 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/world/europe/13paris.html?_r=3&oref=slogin MASDAR CITY - Abu Dhabi http://www.masdar.ae/en/home/index.aspx A VISION OF SMARTER CITIES How cities can lead the way to a prosperous & sustainable future http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/smarter-cities.html MYSIG-ENERGY Malaysia Special Interest Group on ENERGY http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MYSIG-ENERGY

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