griscom_rel_e_kali

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REDDeX Conference, Cancun, July 14, 2010 Comparison of REL Methods for Districts of East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Bronson Griscom, Sr. Scientist Forest Carbon John Kerkering, Conservation Analyst

Question: What is the most accurate method for predicting the amount of deforestation within districts of East Kalimantan?

Alternative methods for predicting deforestation (i.e. REL) at sub-national scale Complex Simple Historical Rate (with adjustments) Forward Looking Historical Rate of project area 1 ,[object Object]

Spatially explicit modeling3 “Planned” (e.g. legal license to log/convert) 2

1 Predicted deforestation in each district = Historic rate in each district 2000 2005

2 Predicted deforestation in each district = Historic rate of reference region …where reference regions are determined by cluster analysis Cluster Anal.

3 Predicted deforestation in each district = Modeled future rate in each district …using spatially explicit model at regional (province) scale.

Here’s how… 3 Prior Deforestation Vulnerability LCM ,[object Object],2000 ,[object Object],“Driver” Variables 2005 Projections 2020 2015 dist. roads dist. converted areas spatial plan soils forest types slope dist. sawmills dist. towns dist. cities topography 2009 Note: projections assume historic rate at province scale dist. navigable rivers

Comparison of Three Methods Predicted area deforested from 2006-2009 minus Actual area deforested from 2006-2009 (as % of actual area deforested) 3 2 1

Why do cluster reference regions seem to work? 2

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griscom_rel_e_kali

2. REDDeX Conference, Cancun, July 14, 2010 Comparison of REL Methods for Districts of East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Bronson Griscom, Sr. Scientist Forest Carbon John Kerkering, Conservation Analyst

3. Question: What is the most accurate method for predicting the amount of deforestation within districts of East Kalimantan?

5. Trend analysis.

6. Rate derived from “reference region.”

7. Spatially explicit modeling3 “Planned” (e.g. legal license to log/convert) 2

8. 1 Predicted deforestation in each district = Historic rate in each district 2000 2005

9. 2 Predicted deforestation in each district = Historic rate of reference region …where reference regions are determined by cluster analysis Cluster Anal.

10. 3 Predicted deforestation in each district = Modeled future rate in each district …using spatially explicit model at regional (province) scale.

11.

12. Selection of Model “Drivers” 3

13. Selection of Model “Drivers” 3

14. 3 Model Performance

15. Comparison of Three Methods Predicted area deforested from 2006-2009 minus Actual area deforested from 2006-2009 (as % of actual area deforested) 3 2 1

16. Comparison of Three Methods 3 2 1

17. Comparison of Three Methods 3 2 1

18. Why do cluster reference regions seem to work? 2

19. Question: What is the most accurate method for predicting the amount of deforestation within districts of East Kalimantan?

20.

21. I suggest reference region method 2

22. Nested RELs National Scale: Historic mean, with negotiated adjustments? Sub-National Scale (e.g. State/Province): Modeled projection, to determine proportion of national emissions pie? Separate models for deforestation vs. degradation? Project Scale: Mixed. Modeled projection for unplanned events? Book-keeping for planned events / strategies?

23. thanks! Bronson Griscom bgriscom@tnc.org

Editor's Notes

Let’s consider reference region method 2 because:Seems to be relatively accurate.Pretty intuitive (even though some geeky stats).Facilitates nesting to national scale.Might encourage competition to reduce deforestation rates.

griscom_rel_e_kali

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Editor's Notes