stickler_modeling_baselines

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stickler_modeling_baselines

  1. 1. Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto<br />UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS<br />Modelling spatially explicit forward-looking baselines<br />Claudia Stickler<br />REDDex, July 13-15, 2010<br />
  2. 2. Applications of the Amazon Scenarios <br />modeling system in Amazon REDD projects<br /><ul><li>Juma (Amazonas State)**
  3. 3. Surui (Rondonia indigenous land project)**
  4. 4. State of Acre
  5. 5. Northwestern MatoGrosso project**
  6. 6. Xingu Social-environmental Carbon
  7. 7. Brazilian Amazon</li></ul>** Used model results not developed for reference level estimation<br />
  8. 8.
  9. 9. MatoGrosso REDD targets within a national program<br />Annual Deforestation (km2)<br />
  10. 10. Indigenous Lands<br />~60% of area<br />Protected Areas<br />Sustainable Use Areas<br />~98% of deforestation<br />Private Lands<br />508,474 km2<br />>95% of possible REDD+ participant nations<br />
  11. 11. Historical average<br />3.3% = 10,502 ha/yr<br />2.3% = 216,376 ha/yr<br />1.3% = 483,380 ha/yr<br />0.0035% = 3791 ha/yr<br />Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  12. 12. Simulated (modeled) baseline<br /><ul><li>Dinamica EGO platform (www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/)
  13. 13. High to medium resolution (100-m to 1-km)
  14. 14. Calibrated and run at nested sub-basin levels
  15. 15. Regrows forests and cerrado</li></ul>Stickler et al. 2009 GCB; Stickler 2009<br />
  16. 16. Sub-basins (2nd order)<br />Variable types for calibration<br />clearing<br />roads<br />topography<br />population centers<br />streams<br />protected areas<br />soils/suitability<br />
  17. 17. Basic units of change<br />Microbasins (7th order +)<br />7572 watersheds<br />mean = 5981 ha<br />range: 1 – 70,766 ha<br />Cells<br />2940 x 7434 cells<br />4 ha (200 x 200-m)<br />
  18. 18. Scenarios<br />Business as Usual<br />historical rate and pattern of deforestation continues<br />historical level of compliance with environmental legislation continues<br />low, high, average<br />varying weight of historical protection of PAs, ILs, etc.<br />Current Forest Code <br />80% “legal reserve” (RL) in forest biome; 35% RL in cerrado; 100% forest in riparian zone<br />Varying protection of indigenous lands, protected areas<br />State Zoning Plans<br />4 zones: 80% forest RL in 2 zones; 50% forest RL in 1 zone; 35% cerrado RL in 3 zones; 100% forest in riparian zone<br />Varying protection of indigenous lands, protected areas <br />Stickler 2009; Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  19. 19. High<br />Low<br />Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  20. 20. Comparison of modeled baselines with historical average, Xingu River Basin<br />Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  21. 21. Initial<br />(2007)<br />BAU Average<br />(2037)<br />BAU Low<br />(2037)<br />BAU High<br />(2037)<br />
  22. 22. Comparison of modeled baselines with policy intervention scenarios<br />Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  23. 23. BAU Average<br />(2037)<br />Forest Code<br />(2037)<br />Zoning<br />(2037)<br />Forest Code + 20% in ILs<br />(2037)<br />
  24. 24. Emissions avoided (Xingu River Basin)<br />Implementation of Forest Code (private lands) & strict protection of ILs and PAs<br />
  25. 25. Comparison of modeled baselines for private lands in the Xingu River basin<br />Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  26. 26. Comparison of modeled baselines for indigenous lands in the Xingu River basin<br />Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  27. 27. Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  28. 28. Carbon stocks & emissionsonindigenouslands in theBrazilian Amazon<br />Nivel de amenaza<br />Priorización de áreas protegidas<br />Soares-Filho et al. 2010 PNAS<br />
  29. 29. Modeledbaselinesbased on forest transition?<br />North Amazon Basin<br />Congo Basin <br />South Amazon Basin<br />National forest cover<br />Europe <br />North America<br />South East Asia<br />North East Asia<br />South Asia<br />West Africa<br />Oceania<br />Atlantic forest<br />Time<br />(Zarin et al. 2009)<br />
  30. 30. Assessing ecological & economic trade-offs<br /><ul><li>Hydrology:THMB surface hydrology transport model (Coe et al. 2000, 2009)
  31. 31. Climate
  32. 32. Water Quality: Basic indicators (Neill et al. 2006, Nepstad et al. 2007; Macedo et al., in prep.)
  33. 33. Habitat Quality & Biodiversity Potential
  34. 34. Fire Incidence (and associated CO2 emissions) (Silvestrini et al. 2009, Stickler et al. in prep)
  35. 35. Carbon sequestration potential
  36. 36. Opportunity cost
  37. 37. Restoration costs</li></li></ul><li>Collaborators<br />Ane Alencar (IPAM)<br />Oriana Almeida (IPAM, UFPa)<br />Alessandro Baccini (WHRC)<br />Paulo Brando (IPAM)<br />Oswaldo Carvalho (IPAM)<br />Andrea Cattaneo (OECD)<br />Mike Coe (WHRC)<br />Laura Dietzsch (IPAM)<br />Josef Kellndorfer (WHRC)<br />Andre Lima (IPAM)<br />Marcia Macedo (Columbia U)<br />Paulo Moutinho (IPAM)<br />Daniel Nepstad (IPAM)<br />Hermann Rodrigues (UFMG)<br />Britaldo Soares Filho (UFMG)<br />Osvaldo Stella (IPAM)<br />Wayne Walker (WHRC)<br />Toby McGrath (WHRC, IPAM)<br />Frank Merry (Moore)<br />Maria Bowman (UCB, WHRC)<br />John Carter (AT)<br />Sergio Rivero (UFPa)<br />UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS<br />
  38. 38.
  39. 39. Sample of REDD-Relevant Publications from Amazon Scenarios Program<br />Merry, F., B. Soares-Filho, D. Nepstad, G. Amacher, and H. Rodrigues. 2009. <br />Balancing conservation and economic stability: the future of the Amazon timber industry. <br />Environmental Management<br />Nepstad, D., B. Soares-Filho, F. Merry, A. Lima, P. Moutinho, et al. 2009. <br />The end of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Science 326: 1350-1351.<br />Nepstad, D, A. Veríssimo, A. Alencar, etal. 1999. Large-scale impoverishment of <br />Amazonian forests by logging and fire. Nature. 398:505-508.<br />Soares-Filho, B. S., P. Moutinho, D. Nepstad, et al. 2010. Role of Brazilian Amazon <br />protected areas in climate mitigation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.<br />Soares-Filho, B., D. Nepstad, L. Curran, et al. 2006. Modeling Amazon conservation. <br />Nature 440: 520-523.<br />Stickler, C.M., D.C. Nepstad, M.T. Coe, D.G. McGrath, H.O. Rodrigues, et al. 2009. <br />The potential ecological costs and cobenefits of REDD: a critical review and case <br />study from the Amazon region. Global Change Biology 15:2803–2824 <br />Vera-Diaz, M. del C., R. K. Kaufmann, D. C. Nepstad, P. Schlesinger. 2007. <br />An interdisciplinary model of soybean yield in the Amazon Basin: the climatic,<br />edaphic, and economic determinants. Ecological Economics<br />
  40. 40.
  41. 41. Lima et al. 2010; Nepstad et al. 2010<br />
  42. 42. Potential nesting of the Xingu “Socio-environmental Carbon” Project<br />C-REDDs Allocated to Amazon States<br />Mato Grosso C-REDD Allocation C-REDD Allocation to Other States<br />State Institutions/<br />Governance<br />C-REDD Buffer<br />Private Land Program<br />Protected Area Program<br />Farm Settlement Program<br />Indigenous Land Program<br />100 MtCO2e<br />$<br />Regulated<br />Entities, Other <br />Investors<br />Indigenous Land Fund<br />“C-REDDs”<br />Indigenous Land Projects (Xingu, NW, etc.)<br />Mato Grosso Indigenous Land Systemic Program<br />
  43. 43. Historical average extended into future<br />Nepstad et al. 2010<br />

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