ApproachesToBaseline dganz


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ApproachesToBaseline dganz

  1. 1. Approaches to Baseline: OverviewDavid J. Ganz, PhDForest Carbon Science Team<br />
  2. 2. Overview of Session<br /><ul><li>How success is to be measured
  3. 3. Reductions in baseline emissions should be recognized and able to be credited.
  4. 4. “Business as usual” (bau) projections are used to define an expected Reference Emission Level (RELs) or “baselines”
  5. 5. Three methods for establishment of “business as usual” scenarios. </li></li></ul><li>Baseline: how is it determined?<br />Historic<br /><ul><li>Based on an analysis of past images;
  6. 6. Based on other statistics (population, income)</li></ul>Modeled<br /><ul><li>Regression analysis from predictive variables</li></ul>Negotiated<br /><ul><li>Baselines, whether based on historic data or models of the future, will be decided in a political negotiation process</li></li></ul><li>Historic vs. Modeled Baselines<br />Modeled Baselines<br />Emissions<br />Historic Baseline<br />With project<br />Project <br />Implementation<br />Time<br />T=0<br />
  7. 7. Baseline Projection – Project Development Cycle<br />2<br />3<br />4<br />1<br />Baseline<br />Scoping<br />Additionality<br />Buffers &<br />Discounts<br /><ul><li> project area
  8. 8. reference region
  9. 9. estimate emissions </li></ul> avoided with <br />change from bau<br /><ul><li> area change
  10. 10. strategies
  11. 11. leakage estimate
  12. 12. emissions factors
  13. 13. standards
  14. 14. permanence </li></ul> estimate<br /><ul><li> bau projection
  15. 15. nesting</li></ul>5<br />6<br />Implement<br />Project<br />MRV (post)<br />Transact Credits<br />MRV (ante)<br /><ul><li> monitoring
  16. 16. monitoring plan
  17. 17. reporting
  18. 18. reporting (PDD)
  19. 19. verification
  20. 20. validation & …registration</li></li></ul><li>Alternatives for Projecting <br />Business as Usual Scenarios (or REL)….<br />Complex<br />Simple<br />Historical<br />Mean <br /><ul><li> Simple </li></ul>trend analysis)<br />Historical <br />(with adjustments)<br />Forward Looking<br /><ul><li>Drivers & vulnerability analysis (internal vs. external)
  21. 21. Spatially explicit modeling</li></li></ul><li>Nested RELs<br />National Scale<br />Sub-National Scale<br />Do methods change with scale?<br />Project Scale<br />
  22. 22. Review Key Steps - Nested Approach<br />Agree upon national REL according to standard in a future international agreement or bilateral agreement<br />Delineate reference regions for accounting<br />Establish a REL for each region using historical data and where possible, modeling future deforestation and degradation<br />Negotiate with national government to ensure that the sum of the regions’ RELs adds up to the national REL.<br />
  23. 23. Key Questions for Nested Approaches<br /><ul><li>Same monitoring systems used at all levels?
  24. 24. Reference region for projects same as sub-national accounting scale?
  25. 25. Same standards used at all scales?
  26. 26. Political feasibility?
  27. 27. Too complicated – needs to be understandable by governments/ civil society
  28. 28. Too much of a black box – RELs might actually go down as you get less deforestation.</li></li></ul><li>Alternatives for Projecting <br />Business as Usual Baseline Scenarios….<br />Complex<br />Simple<br />Historical<br />Mean <br />(or simple <br />trend analysis)<br />Historical <br />(with adjustments)<br />Forward Looking<br /><ul><li>Drivers & vulnerability analysis </li></ul>(internal vs. external)<br /><ul><li>Spatially explicit modeling</li></ul>“Planned” <br />(e.g. legal license <br />to log/convert)<br />Examples:<br />LCM<br />Geomod<br />SimAmazonia<br />
  29. 29. Measurement challenges<br /><ul><li>Capabilities to measure forest biomass at national or regional scales still very limited
  30. 30. Significant technological advancement in remote sensing capacity needed
  31. 31. Significant ground truthing of remotely sensed imagery needed
  32. 32. Carbon stocks of different forest ecosystems worldwide poorly known
  33. 33. Reliance on default values</li></li></ul><li>Conclusions - REL<br />Scale matters – <br />from project to sub-national to national<br />nesting framework<br />Simplicity matters<br />rigorous and credible while minimizing the level of admin/accounting complexity.<br />Equity and transparency matters<br />Transparent negotiating process <br />Social and environmental safeguards<br />Tradeoffs with credibility and rigor<br />