1. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
Pathways to Success on REDD+:
Countries Learning from Each Other
Ken Andrasko
World Bank/Environment Dept./FCPF program
At TNC REDD eX conference, Cancun, Mexico July 13-16, 2010
www.forestcarbonpartnership.org

2. REDD + is ... a policy rocket with broad support:
Now what??
The Good News:
• REDD+ is likely to happen.
• Serious discussion of up‐scaling
and funding.
• We are slowly invenJng how to
do REDD+, at project and
naJonal scales.
The Other News:
• But we need to harvest lessons
faster, & apply them at larger
scales.
• We need to share experience &
rapidly develop a vision of what
naJonal REDD+ looks like.
Achieving REDD+ is a learning-by-doing endeavor for countries

3. Countries Start From Different Points, and Lose
Forest as They Develop. Can REDD+ alter this path?
National forest cover
Forest TransiJon Curve
North Amazon Basin
Congo Basin
Conservation
REDD+ bridge ?
South Amazon Basin
Europe
REDD North America
South East Asia North East Asia
South Asia
West Africa
Enhancement
Oceania
Atlantic forest
Time
Source: Zarin, 2009

4. Three major levers of forest based mi2ga2on,
each with different characteris2cs
Project Catalyst slide, Copenhagen 2009
Reduced
Forest-based abatement deforestation and
potential forest degradation
Gt CO2e / yr 8 (REDD)
LARGEST
6
Enhancement of
Forest Carbon
Stocks & A/R
3 MEDIUM
2
1 Conservation &
2015 2020 2030 Sustainable
Management of
Forests
SMALLEST
Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Project Catalyst analysis 4

5. Only 30 countries cover 90 percent of deforestaJon and 80
percent of carbon stock. (ForestaJon is more concentrated)
Project Catalyst slide, Copenhagen, 2009
Emissions from deforestation
Gt CO2e
0.5 0 0
0.1
90%
Brazil Indonesia Other top 20 Remaining 9 Next (54) China and Rest of S. Total
deforestation with >1% of high/medium India hemisphere
countries total ABG deforestation developing
carbon stock countries countries
3V
80%
12 4 4
ABG Carbon stock
FRA 2005, % of total
Source: Houghton; FAO FRA 2005; Hooijer, A. et al., PEAT-CO2, Delft Hydraulics report Q3943
(2006); Project Catalyst analysis 5

6. Challenge: How to rapidly build REDD+
capacity in countries ..
. . . while integraJng REDD+ into
naJonal development plans, and
altering land use incenJves and
behavior
… for lasJng transformaJon to low‐
carbon development paths ?
6

7. FCPF: 37 REDD Country Experiences.
15 Readiness PreparaJon Proposals (R‐PPs).
7

8. Countries Start From DisJnct SituaJons:
Land Use Trends, DeforestaJon Drivers, Governance
Relative
Forest
Disclaimer: maps are for illustrative
cover
Suriname: purposes only. World Bank has no
2000 – 3000 ha views on national boundaries
DR: 0%)
Indonesia:
1,800,000 ha
DR: 1.5 – 2%)
Panama: 48,000 ha
DR: 0.8 – 1.1%) Ghana: 120,000 ha
DR: 1.6 – 2.0 %)
Guyana:
Absolute deforestation:
20 – 30,000 ha,
Deforestation
rate (DR: 0.1 – 0.3%)
Time
The countries on the transitional curve…
8
Courtesy of Juergen Blaser, of FCPF Technical Advisory panel

9. REDD Readiness AcJviJes (per FCPF )
Contents of Readiness PreparaJon Proposal (R‐PP):
Component 1: Organize and Consult
1a. Na2onal Readiness Management Arrangements
1b. Stakeholder Consulta2on and Par2cipa2on
Component 2: Prepare the REDD plus Strategy
2a. Assessment of Land Use, Forest Policy and Governance
2b. REDD Strategy Op2ons
2c. REDD Implementa2on Framework
2d. Social and Environmental Impacts
Component 3: Develop a Reference Scenario
Component 4: Design a Monitoring System
4a. Emissions and Removals
4b. Other Benefits and Impacts
Component 5: Schedule and Budget
Component 6: Monitoring & EvaluaJon of program
9

10. REDD+ requires strongly interrelated program components.
Inadequate design of one leads to unsustainable
or unmarketable REDD
Stakeholder Consulta2ons
MRV System
Assessment of REDD+
Design:
DeforestaJon Strategy
Drivers +
Governance and Programs Measure and
report on change
Establish reference scenario over Jme
10
High quality MRV may be required for participation in global REDD markets
& avoidance of REDD tonne price discounting.

11. REDD Readiness AcJviJes (per FCPF )
• Contents of Readiness Prepara2on Proposal (R‐PP):
Component 1: Organize and Consult
1a. Na2onal Readiness Management Arrangements
1b. Stakeholder Consulta2on and Par2cipa2on
Component 2: Prepare the REDD plus Strategy
2a. Assessment of Land Use, Forest Policy and Governance
2b. REDD Strategy Op2ons
2c. REDD Implementa2on Framework
2d. Social and Environmental Impacts
Component 3: Develop a Reference Scenario
Component 4: Design a Monitoring System
4a. Emissions and Removals
4b. Other Benefits and Impacts
Component 5: Schedule and Budget
Component 6: Monitoring & EvaluaJon of program

12. Inclusive consultaJons on REDD+
are criJcal early need to forge a common vision on REDD+
INSIGHT: Transparent early consultations
with major stakeholders offers promise of
REDD+ becoming more inclusive than
previous land use dialogues.
• Consultations will require new openness from
governments and stakeholders… and need to
broaden over time.
Examples:
• Panama included IP leaders in formulaJon of R‐PP, and in naJonal
delegaJon to COP14 Poznan, 2008
• Ghana, Nepal, DRC offer detailed mulJ‐stakeholder consultaJon plans. 14 12

13. ParJcipaJon in REDD Design Can Challenge TradiJonal
RelaJonships Between Governments & Stakeholders
• Issue of REDD system design can inherit pre‐exisJng failures, unresolved
governance, land tenure uncertainty.
• Or, be fresh start.

14. Guyana’s land tenure: State (86% of area esJmated); Amerindian
lands; private. Mining claims overlap Amerindian reservaJons.
• Maps oeen have been drawn in Georgetown , with minimal consultaJon or
field work

15. Consultations in Preparation and Refinement of
DRC’s R-PP: Seeking a Consensual Plan
Since April 2009, Since January 2010, >100
National REDD R-PP validation
people refined R-PP via workshop
Coordination consulted 4 consultation had 80 participants
> 700 people. workshops.

16. REDD Readiness AcJviJes (per FCPF )
• Contents of Readiness Prepara2on Proposal (R‐PP):
Component 1: Organize and Consult
1a. Na2onal Readiness Management Arrangements
1b. Stakeholder Consulta2on and Par2cipa2on
Component 2: Prepare the REDD plus Strategy
2a. Assessment of Land Use, Forest Policy and Governance
2b. REDD Strategy Op2ons
2c. REDD Implementa2on Framework
2d. Social and Environmental Impacts
Component 3: Develop a Reference Scenario
Component 4: Design a Monitoring System
4a. Emissions and Removals
4b. Other Benefits and Impacts
Component 5: Schedule and Budget
16

17. Linking SubnaJonal Pilot Projects to NaJonal REDD:
e.g., Indonesia (e.g., Berau), DRC, Brazil, Mexico
National Baseline,
ISSUES TO RESOLVE:
Accounting &
monitoring
• Harmonizing reference
scenarios & MRV between:
• NaJonal scale,
Inter-regional
• SubnaJonal regions, strategy and
• REDD projects. policies
• Use registry of acJviJes?
• Who owns emissions
REGION 1: REGION 3:
reducJons? baseline & REGION 2: baseline &
policies baseline & policies
• How revenues would be policies
shared?
• How acJviJes are regulated? Adapted from: Andrea Cattaneo, Woods Hole Research Center

18. REDD+ requires unprecedented naJonal
planning across sectors.
Requires integrated vision of how REDD+ fits into
emerging national, low-carbon development strategy.
• Mainstreaming REDD+ may require putting REDD at
the center of national development policy
• . . . elevated to highest levels of government.
Examples:
• DRC Congo’s REDD unit using its R‐PP to coordinate across ministries,
donors, and FCPF and UN‐REDD programs.
• Guyana developing Low Carbon Development Strategy led by its President.
18

19. CoordinaJng NaJonal REDD AcJviJes: DemocraJc
Republic of Congo example
Harmonized Components
REDD Activities and Funding of Readiness
Coordinated via Single Country (UN-REDD / FFCPF)
Readiness Preparation In Country’s FCPF R-PP:
Proposal: (R-PP)
Management of Readiness
UN‐REDD
REDD Strategy OpJons
DRC’s
naJonal REDD ImplementaJon
process Framework
and
FCPF Reference Scenario
workplan
Other NaJonal Monitoring System
Donors

20. What REDD Strategy Makes Sense for Each Region &
Its DeforestaJon Drivers & Governance Status ??
Himalaya Mountains: NEPAL
Exploitation for fuelwood
Siliwak and Middle Hills:
Community forestry innovation
Terai Lowland Forest:
Larger-scale agriculture;
immigration; recent conflict
Total Area: 147,181 Sq. Km. Population: 24 M

21. Linking REDD to Low Carbon Development
Strategy: Finding Feasible Options (DRC example)
From: “Democratic Republic of Congo’s REDD+ Potential,” December 2009
High
AfforestaJon
Fuelwood for
Fossil Fuel
Intensified
Subsistence Agriculture
Agriculture
Scale of GHG
Commercial
Agriculture
Mitigation
(extensive)
other
Irrigated other
Agriculture
Low Feasibility of REDD Option High

22. Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy:
Using REDD to Create AlternaJves to DeforestaJon

23. REDD Readiness AcJviJes (per FCPF )
• Contents of Readiness Prepara2on Proposal (R‐PP):
Component 1: Organize and Consult
1a. Na2onal Readiness Management Arrangements
1b. Stakeholder Consulta2on and Par2cipa2on
Component 2: Prepare the REDD plus Strategy
2a. Assessment of Land Use, Forest Policy and Governance
2b. REDD Strategy Op2ons
2c. REDD Implementa2on Framework
2d. Social and Environmental Impacts
Component 3: Develop a Reference Scenario
Component 4: Design a Monitoring System
4a. Emissions and Removals
4b. Other Benefits and Impacts
Component 5: Schedule and Budget
23

24. REDD AcJviJes Selected Vary in Timing, & Affect Reference
Case & MRV Design. DegradaJon is More Complex
24

25. Reference Case: Global Requirements & Guidance Likely Different
from NaJonal & Project Needs. HarmonizaJon is Challenging.
Global
Global Objective
Target Reference Reference
Case?: Case ??
‐ Via nego2a2ons? (independent,
‐ ‐ via analy2c via remote
Regional method? sensing?)
Reference
Case: 4‐5
countries Issues:
National
- National scale probably key
Implementation
for REDD and FCPF
Reference Case ??:
Subna;onal - To implement - Policy discussion focusing
Reference global case on global scale to date
Case
Subna;onal
- How resolve relation
Reference Case between
global, national & project??

26. Brazil: Amazon Fund. Example of One Approach for a
Historic Reference Scenario Using Annual + Default Data.
Carbon density data limited, so use conservative 100tC/ha as default.

27. Subnational Reference Case, Driven by Development Plans:
Brazilian Amazon Baseline GHG emissions 2007-2050
Amazon Basin Business as Usual
Deforestation
Scenario = 2.6 million km2 deforested by 2050
Soares-Filho et al. 2006
Issues:
≅ 47 billions of - How find
tons of Carbon project in
≅ 172.3 billions of national refer.
tons of CO e
2
case?
225 tC/ha - Use project or
large-scale
Carbon Stock resolution &
Saatchi et al., 2007 data?
0 tC/ha

28. SimAmazonia Model Results: Opportunity Cost of Land for Soy, Logging, Cattle
(Soares-Filho et al. 2006)
> US$ 13 per ton
US$ 8-13 per ton
US$ 3-8 per ton
US$ 3-0 per ton deforested
Paved road
US$ 0 per ton Cerrado biome Unpaved road
Custo de oportunidade

29. Expanding SimAmazonia Model to All of Brazil:
Low Carbon Country Case Study, World Bank et al.
Source: Britaldo Soares Filho
772 units
772
Amazônia
Caatinga
Cerrado
Pantanal
Scenarios of
carbon Mata Atlântica
emissions from
expanding crops Pampa
for biofuels
1x1 km = 4500x4500 = 20 M cells

30. Evolving Mexico MRV: Combines 22,000‐plot forest inventory +
high resoluJon remote sensing + naJonal ecological process model
• Forest
Inventory
• Landsat
• AVHRR
• MODIS
• SPOT

31. CCI Guyana Proposal: Transparent, NaJonally Sustainable,
And InternaJonally Acceptable MRV System
ReporJng:
NaJonal Measurement System for
Forest Carbon NaJonal
Economic Development
Data Strategy
Models Outputs
CollecJon Policy
ReporJng
Satellite Data Algorithms Emissions ReporJng NaJonal
Accounts
Ground Data Data Fusion Removals To meet internaJonal
obligaJons under UNFCCC
Climate Data Raster Mapping (Emissions EsJmates
Environment and and ProjecJons) &
Forest ClassificaJon Visuals to enter Carbon Markets
SpaJal Analysis
Land
Management
InformaJon
Management
PracJces

32. Budget: EsJmated Cost of REDD+, Early
EsJmates (Sathaye, Andrasko et al., in press)
Components of RED FCPF 2010 FCPF 2008 Eliasch
Readiness Estimates in 9 Estimate Estimate: High
National R-PPs (Average, in (in ‘000)
(‘000) ‘000)
REDD management and $3,530 $525 + 365 $2,000
consultations
Develop REDD strategy $1,920 $450 $1,000
Environmental and social $1,440 $50 -
impacts assessment of REDD
strategy
REDD implementation $1,200 $341 $1,500
framework
Develop reference scenario $2,020 $ 516 $4,000
Design REDD MRV system $6,960 $1,008 -
TOTAL (without annual MRV $17,260 $3,250 $8,500
costs)
Source: TNC, 2010 (average of 9 submitted country Readiness Preparation Proposals, on www.forestcarbonpartners.org);
FCPF, 2008; Eliasch, 2008 as summarized in FCPF, 2008.

33. REDD TargeJng & Modeling Task: Overlaying
Dynamic Land Use, Benefits, & Governance Issues
• REDD Opportunities Vary by Deforestation Threat
Opportunity Cost (OC) of Land, & C Density Class,
Carbon Density, and Threat of for East Kalimantan
Deforestation (Gibbs and Brown,
2007)
• Can we identify high priority
interventions, with low barriers
to implementation?
• What are priority governance
concerns with these targeted
lands and REDD strategies?
• What are the capacity building
and investment needs?
• What are the potential risks,
environmental and social, and
economic?
Gibbs, H. and S. Brown. 2007. Geographical Distribution
of Biomass Carbon in Tropical Southeast Asian Forests:
A Database. ORNL/CDIAC.

34. How Can FCPF and REDD+ Contribute to Low Carbon
Development Strategies?
• Provide best pracJces for stakeholder consultaJon and
parJcipaJon
• Encourage cross‐sectoral naJonal REDD management structure.
• Share early methods for reference scenario sekng for forest cover
change over Jme: historic and future forecasJng
• Share design for MRV (measurement, reporJng and verificaJon) of
REDD+ within LCDS context;
– Help encourage high‐quality, internaJonally consistent MRV
– Help countries produce compliance‐grade REDD+ carbon assets.
• Nest REDD+ within a broader vision of naJonal development,
reached via consensus process – instead of carbon cowboy deals.
• Provide global plamorm for experimentaJon, pilot methods
development, and carbon finance pilots – leading to confidence in
REDD+ over Jme.

35. Bonom‐line: Major new REDD+ ideas and pilots are
emerging from the countries – not top‐down.
FCPF provides a useful plamorm for sharing
knowledge and experience
FCPF example:
• Brazil is sharing Amazon Fund experience with
FCPF countries, inc. Indonesia & DRC.
• Vietnam + Mekong Basin countries, and Congo
Basin countries, exploring regional cooperaJon on
reference scenarios + MRV.
• Indonesia issued naJonal regulaJons managing
REDD process, followed by DRC and others.
35

36. Summary: FCPF partnership experiment is demonstraJng the
power of transparent sharing of experience – but needs acceleraJon
Lesson:
REDD countries are learning by
doing and sharing. But need:
• Technical assistance to build in‐
country capacity to plan and
implement REDD+ acJviJes
• Clearer internaJonal policy and
methods guidance, to scale up
REDD+ Readiness.
36

37. The Road Ahead Shall Be InteresJng …