Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
The Solar Future DE - Henning Wicht "How will the dynamics of supply and demand look by 2013? "
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

The Solar Future DE - Henning Wicht "How will the dynamics of supply and demand look by 2013? "

1,263
views

Published on

Henning Wicht; Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSupply

Henning Wicht; Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSupply

Published in: Business, Technology

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,263
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
120
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Applied Market Intelligence How will the dynamics of supply and demand look by 2013? The Solar Future II: PV Vision and Strategy Conference Munich, June 8, 2010 Dr. Henning Wicht – Senior Director and Principal Analyst hwicht@isuppli.com
  • 2. Agenda   The Solar Industry – what is going on?   Solar Installations – how will the market look by 2013?   Supply/Demand - Is Another Crash Coming?   Bottleneck Forecast iSuppli Corporation – 2 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 3. The solar 18 month cycle: From boom to bust and back to boom   The strategic questions of the PV industry   Will we see an outbalanced market, can we increase prices?   Shall we procure short-term or do we need long-term contracts for 2011 and 2012?   Which business strategy is best: specialist or integrated?   iSuppli analyzes the industry along the value chain Silicon and Wafer Cells and Modules PV Installations iSuppli Corporation – 3 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 4. Tracking the solar industry – data, models, forecasts   Company level: Top 60 Solar companies averaging 80% of the market Forecast 2014, actual   Production data: Production capacity, production, and Historical shipments, utilization rates (Production capacity: 2010 forecast by quarter   Financial metrics (32 companies at present): Revenue, Annual forecast to 2014) gross profit, COGS, revenue per Watt, cost per Watt   Market level: Polysilicon, solar wafers, c-Si cells, c-Si & TF modules   Production data: Production capacity, production, shipments, utilization rate   Supply / demand gaps   Inventory levels   Supplier inventory   Channel inventory   System demand / installations for 14 key PV countries   Installations by market segment   Revenues by market segment iSuppli Corporation – 4 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 5. Solar Installations – How will the market look by 2013 iSuppli Corporation – 5 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 6. Worldwide PV Installation Forecast iSuppli Corporation – 6 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 7. PV Installations by country Total PV Installations in MW 2010 2009 2014 CAGR % Germany 6,600 3,860 4,500 -9* Italy 1,070 582 6,743 58 Czech Republic 1,000 411 840 -4* USA 836 387 5,316 59 Japan 715 400 2,919 42 China 580 200 2,370 42 France 540 220 4,158 67 Spain 450 150 1,100 25 Belgium 420 220 1,405 35 Ontario (CND) 250 57 1,950 67 Korea 145 100 700 48 Greece 100 50 400 41 United Kingdom 95 1 501 52 Bulgaria 93 47 1,067 84 Rest of World 679 352 11,323 102 Total 13,573 7,037 45,290 37.1 * CAGR for Germany and Czech R. is negative since markets are expected to peak before 2014 iSuppli Corporation – 7 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 8. Global Demand Forecast – The iSuppli Approach 1.  Detailed analysis of key solar markets accounting for 90% of PV installations in 2009 and about 80% in 2014   Europe: Germany, Italy, France, Czech Rep., Belgium, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria   North America: USA, Ontario (CND)   Asia: Japan, China, Korea   Rest of the World 2.  Calculation of ROI and time to cash break-even per region and per market segment   5 kW residential rooftop   250 kW commercial rooftop   1 MW ground installation 3.  Determine growth corridor by comparison with growth experience in Spain, Germany and Italy 4.  Detailed evaluation of regional- and segment-specific parameters   Capital availability/ impact of credit crunch, permits, FIT limits etc. 5.  iSuppli forecast 2009 to 2014 iSuppli Corporation – 8 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 9. PV installations will record again in 2010   Market size differs from XXL to M   XXL: Germany 6600 MW   XL: Italy, Czech R.*, USA, Japan 700 – 1100 MW   L: France, China, Spain, Belgium, Ontario 300 -600 MW   M: Greece, Bulgaria 50 -200 MW   A total of 13.5 GW of new installations is forecasted   Largest growth is coming from Germany, Italy and Czech* Republic. *Note Czech Republic PV Moratorium: Czech R. put on hold new PV installations in March 2010 due to risks of grid instability. The current forecast of 1000 MW is uncertain. iSuppli will review the situation in CZ and update the forecast in June 2010 iSuppli Corporation – 9 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 10. Germany 2010: monthly installations swing due to FIT changes Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov Dec Total 2009 MW* 2,89 16,5 56,3 115 150 205 308 291 327 377 497 1460 3860 2010 MW forecast 100 200 400 800 800 800 200 300 450 450 550 1550 6600 2010 MW* 224 162 * Data Bundesnetzagentur iSuppli Corporation – 10 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 11. The new German feed-in-tariff   What is happening?   On May 06, 2010 the German parliament (Bundestag) accepted the following changes proposed by the Ministry of Environment.   New legislation should become mandatory by July 2010   Decision did not pass the Bundesrat (June 04); decision is pending   Dates and Content of new FIT probably less sever Originally proposed Changes by July 2010:   One time cut of tariffs –  FIT cut of 16% for all rooftop installations –  FIT cut of 11% for ground installation on conversion area (e.g. ex-military) –  Self consumption bonus of up to 8 cts/kWh applicable for rooftop –  No more funding of ground installations on agricultural ground •  still possible in 2010 if permitted before Jan 2010   Annually decreasing tariffs. Target: 3.0 GW of new installations per year –  FIT decreases 9% per year to compensate/stimulate productivity increase –  If installations in the previous year pass the 3.5 GW, the FIT decrease accelerates •  2011: 1.0% per additional GW •  2012: 3.0% per additional GW Source: BMU, print 17/1604 dated 05.05.2010 iSuppli Corporation – 11 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 12. Installations in Germany are expected to grow in 2011 but are likely to drop from 2012   The FIT, supporting self-consumed PV electricity, will stimulate new installations in 2010 and 2011.   PV systems delivering 30% of self- consumed power, will offer ROI of 8 to 10%.   Ground installations on conversion ground can achieve ROI of 6 to 8%   In 2011 new installations of 9,5 GW are forecasted from todays perspective. Rooftops will dominate with 8,5 GW.   Reaching out to 2012 it is expected that the German government might reduce the FIT again targeting a corridor of 3 to 5 GW of new installations as announced by the Ministry in February 2010. iSuppli Corporation – 12 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 13. Annual PV Systems installations by solar regions, 2009-2014 * Europe (Italy, France, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Bulgaria, excluding Germany) ** North America (US, CND) *** Asia (Japan, Korea, China) iSuppli Corporation – 13 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 14. Annual Installations by Application Globally -- Commercial Roofs Remain Largest Opportunity iSuppli Corporation – 14 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 15. Supply/Demand – is another crash coming? iSuppli Corporation – 15 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 16. Polysilicon Capacity increases up to 50 GW 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Polysilicon Production Capacity (MT) 122.025 179.732 214.699 241.107 267.039 271.639 Electronic Demand [MT] 14.440 17.048 20.458 22.503 24.191 25.401 Conversion g/W 6,33 5,862 5,730 5,670 5,600 5,540 Solar Polysilicon Production Roadmap (2010-2013) [GW] 19,3 30,7 37,5 42,5 47,7 49,0 Source – iSuppli Corporation PV market tracker, Q1 2010 iSuppli Corporation – 16 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 17. Solar Module Capacity to increase by 100% from 2009 to 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Production Capacity (MW) 12.746 18.527 22.877 25.918 27.003 27.838 Additional required Capacity (MW) 1.500 4.000 7.000 13.000 Utilization rates 70% 87% 85% 83% 88% 92% Source – iSuppli Corporation PV market tracker, Q1 2010 iSuppli Corporation – 17 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 18. The short term view in 2010: PV is a very seasonal business iSuppli Corporation – 18 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 19. Global supply-demand outlook – long-term PV module capacity (iSuppli forecast) Polysilicon capacity (iSuppli forecast ) Installations (iSuppli forecast) PV module capacity (industry roadmap status Q1 2010) iSuppli Corporation – 19 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 20. Bottlenecks by 2013 – will Inverters still be the hot spot? iSuppli Corporation – 20 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 21. Bottleneck Analysis 1.  Check Supply/Demand Data   Demand vs production capacity   Utilization   Channel Inventory, Supplier Inventory 2.  Is additional capacity beyond the industry planning needed? 3.  If yes, is the industry able to invest or is there a risk of a bottleneck?   Solar Modules   Silicon   Wafer   Cells   Inverter iSuppli Corporation – 21 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 22. Data analysis - Solar Modules (c-Si and Thinfilm) iSuppli Corporation – 22 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 23. Solar Modules – bottleneck (2011) is likely to be overcome   The Data shows that additional capacity is needed from 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 Additional module 1500 4000 7000 13000 capacity MW Capex (0,2$/W) 0.3B$ 0.8B$ 1.4B$ 2.6B$ Is the Industry able to add the additional capacity?   Pro – Many large size Solar companies are able to invest   Competing on market share, size matters (economy of scale)   Outsourcing companies are expanding (Flextronics, Jabil)   Pro – equipment industry can support market growth   Numerous module lamination equipment on the market   Equipment becomes cheaper for Chinese (weakening Euro)   Pro – ramping times are only 6 to 12 month   Con – weakening Euro reduces margins for Chinese prodcuers, less cash iSuppli Corporation – 23 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 24. Data analysis - Solar Wafer iSuppli Corporation – 24 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 25. Solar Wafers – yes, a potential bottleneck from 2012 on   The Data shows that additional wafer capactiy will be necessary from 2011 on 2011 2012 2013 2014 Additional wafer capacity 0 4500 5500 9000 MW Capex (1$/W) 4.5 B$ 5.5B$ 9 B$ Will the Industry be able to invest?   Pro – the large players in the market REC, LDK, Solarworld are able to invest   Pro – Silicon manufacturers can expand into wafering.   Option for Tier 2 and Tier 3 Silicon producers to increase margins   Con – Less large players than on Module level are interested in wafer;   Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers are forced to expand   Con – Additional capacity has to be ramped fast already in 2011   Longer lead times and ramping cycle than Module production   Higher Investments iSuppli Corporation – 25 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 26. Solar Cells – a potential bottleneck from 2012 on, likely to overcome   The Data shows that additional wafer capactiy will be necessary from 2011 on 2011 2012 2013 2014 Additional cell capacity 0 3000 5000 9000 MW Capex (0,6$/W) 1.8B$ 3.0 B$ 5.4B$ Will the Industry be able to invest?   Pro – as in modules very large players are in the market   Pro – as in module business scale matters   Pro - Ramping time of 6 to 12 month and Capex of 0,3 to 0,5 $/W are feasible   Con – weakening Euro reduces margins for Chinese prodcuers, less cash for expansion iSuppli Corporation – 26 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 27. Data analysis - Solar Inverter (Scenario) iSuppli Corporation – 27 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 28. Summary on PV Bottlenecks – Wafering can become a hotspot Incremental Capacity required (B$) Capex ($/W) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Modules (0.2$/ 0.3B$ 0.8B$ 1.4B$ 2.6B$ W) Silicon Wafer (1.0$/W) 4.5 B$ 5.5B$ 9 B$ Cells (0.6$/W) 1.8B$ 3.0 B$ 5.4B$ Inverters (0.01$/ 0.12 B$ 0.07B$ 0.05B$ 0.05B$ 0.2B$ W) iSuppli Corporation – 28 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
  • 29. 2013 - strong installations and strong seasonality   Installations will grow strongly +30 GW   Germany is expected to resume from 2012 on   In 2013 Europe still installs more than 50% of all PV Systems   Supply and Demand will continue to swing, strong seasonality of demand during the year   New capacity is needed beyond actual announcements   Modules, cells, wafer, inverter   Inverter shortage is not fundamental   Wafer capacities are running short by 2012. Potential Bottleneck. iSuppli Corporation – 29 Copyright © 2000-2010 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending