the problem.

the world suspects bees are decliningShrill Carder Bumblebee DistributionData from NBN, with particular thanks to BWARS.

We donot know if there is a crisis nor have we identified how and where to target our conservation measures because until now, there isNO NORTH AMERICAN MONITORING PROGRAM

the solution.

develop a monitoring plan Evaluate methods Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines Evaluate cost

Evaluate methods

Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines

Evaluate cost

methodsIt doesn’t matter which technique you use, so go with cheap, easy and standardizable.CV = SD/Mean

24 pan traps per transect 8 blue8 yellow8 whiteSample every 2 weeksAt a minimum, sample every fifth year on a rolling basismethods

develop a monitoring plan Evaluate methods Determine how many sites you would need to detect declines Evaluate cost

Evaluate methods

Determine how many sites you would need to detect declines

Evaluate cost

decisions used multi-year trap studiesestimated number of samples using power analysis

good versus bad sampling>80% probability of detecting a change if one is occurring> 1-3% change in population per year

declines

How many sites?Detecting a decline in the number of species

How many sites?Detecting a decline in the abundance of bees

number of siteswith 100 sites, we should be able to detect even a 2% decline in both the abundance and number of species of beeswith slightly over 200 sites, we can pick up a 1% declinemany individual species can be monitoredWow

develop a monitoring plan Evaluate methods Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines Evaluate cost

Evaluate methods

Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines

Evaluate cost

productResults in 5 yearsChange in abundanceChange in total speciesChanges in major guilds and generaChanges in common abundant speciesMaps of distributionsMaps of changePublic database of all recordsTons of specimens for collections, dna, revisions, display, etc.Web-based yearly reports

longer term results

long-term productTrends for individual speciesRegional trendsAbility to detect large scale crashes for any yearAbility to compare to Canadian systemAbility to compare to European systemAbility to compare to UN-FAO sites

more long-term productStandardized methodology permits comparisons among sitesPatterns of distributionPatterns of abundancePatterns of compositionPatterns of fluctuationsCommunity analysesBiogeography analyses

the cost.

cost per siteLaborCollection a few hoursProcessing1/10 of an FTE each site run only every 5 yearsSupplies and Equipment$2,200

other costsFull time coordinator for the length of the project

develop a monitoring plan Evaluate methods Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines Evaluate cost

Evaluate methods

Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines

Evaluate cost

a future.

4 separate sampling systems National ForestsFish and Wildlife Service RefugesNational ParksCommercial Orchards or other Ag Systems

usfs

sampling – For each of the four groupsyear 1 – 50 new sitesyear 2 – 50 new sitesyear 4 – 50 new sitesyear 5 – first 50 are repeated…und so weiter

centralized processing2 sorting, processing, identification, and databasing centers (West and East)170,000 bees a year between the twoEfficiency of scale1 central coordinator2 FTE’s doing the specimen processing

New York Times reports:“Bees in North America NOT declining!”- Laurie Davies Adams, NAPPC 2015

mission accomplished