the problem.<br />
the world suspects bees are declining<br />Shrill Carder Bumblebee Distribution<br />Data from NBN, with particular thanks...
We donot know if there is a crisis nor have we identified how and where to target our conservation measures <br />because ...
the solution.<br />
develop a monitoring plan<br /><ul><li>  Evaluate methods
  Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines
  Evaluate cost</li></li></ul><li>methods<br />It doesn’t matter which technique you use, so go with cheap, easy and stand...
24 pan traps per transect <br />8 blue<br />8 yellow<br />8 white<br />Sample every 2 weeks<br />At a minimum, sample ever...
develop a monitoring plan<br /><ul><li> Evaluate methods
  Determine how many sites you would need to detect declines
  Evaluate cost</li></li></ul><li>decisions<br /> used multi-year trap studies<br />estimated number of samples using powe...
good versus bad sampling<br />&gt;80% probability of detecting a change if one is occurring<br />&gt; 1-3% change in popul...
declines<br />
How many sites?Detecting a decline in the number of species<br />
How many sites?Detecting a decline in the abundance of bees<br />
number of sites<br />with 100 sites, we should be able to detect even a 2% decline in both the abundance and number of spe...
develop a monitoring plan<br /><ul><li>  Evaluate methods
  Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines
  Evaluate cost</li></li></ul><li>product<br />Results in 5 years<br />Change in abundance<br />Change in total species<br...
longer term results<br />
long-term product<br />Trends for individual species<br />Regional trends<br />Ability to detect large scale crashes for a...
more long-term product<br />Standardized methodology permits comparisons among sites<br />Patterns of distribution<br />Pa...
the cost.<br />
cost per site<br />Labor<br />Collection <br />a few hours<br />Processing<br />1/10 of an FTE <br />each site run only ev...
other costs<br />Full time coordinator for the length of the project<br />
develop a monitoring plan<br /><ul><li>  Evaluate methods
  Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines
  Evaluate cost</li></li></ul><li>a future.<br />
4 separate sampling systems 	<br />National Forests<br />Fish and Wildlife Service Refuges<br />National Parks<br />Commer...
usfs<br />
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Survey Design for Monitoring North American Native Bees

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This slide show was presented at the 2009 North American Pollinator Protection Campaign meetings in Washington D.C. It was designed to brief the participants about plans to develop a statistically relevant but inexpensive means of determining if our bees are declining. Details can be obtained from Sam Droege (sdroege@usgs.gov).

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Survey Design for Monitoring North American Native Bees

  1. 1. the problem.<br />
  2. 2. the world suspects bees are declining<br />Shrill Carder Bumblebee Distribution<br />Data from NBN, with particular thanks to BWARS.<br />
  3. 3. We donot know if there is a crisis nor have we identified how and where to target our conservation measures <br />because until now, there is<br />NO NORTH AMERICAN MONITORING PROGRAM<br />
  4. 4. the solution.<br />
  5. 5. develop a monitoring plan<br /><ul><li> Evaluate methods
  6. 6. Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines
  7. 7. Evaluate cost</li></li></ul><li>methods<br />It doesn’t matter which technique you use, so go with cheap, easy and standardizable.<br />CV = SD/Mean<br />
  8. 8. 24 pan traps per transect <br />8 blue<br />8 yellow<br />8 white<br />Sample every 2 weeks<br />At a minimum, sample every fifth year on a rolling basis<br />methods<br />
  9. 9. develop a monitoring plan<br /><ul><li> Evaluate methods
  10. 10. Determine how many sites you would need to detect declines
  11. 11. Evaluate cost</li></li></ul><li>decisions<br /> used multi-year trap studies<br />estimated number of samples using power analysis<br />
  12. 12. good versus bad sampling<br />&gt;80% probability of detecting a change if one is occurring<br />&gt; 1-3% change in population per year<br />
  13. 13. declines<br />
  14. 14. How many sites?Detecting a decline in the number of species<br />
  15. 15. How many sites?Detecting a decline in the abundance of bees<br />
  16. 16. number of sites<br />with 100 sites, we should be able to detect even a 2% decline in both the abundance and number of species of bees<br />with slightly over 200 sites, we can pick up a 1% decline<br />many individual species can be monitored<br />Wow<br />
  17. 17. develop a monitoring plan<br /><ul><li> Evaluate methods
  18. 18. Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines
  19. 19. Evaluate cost</li></li></ul><li>product<br />Results in 5 years<br />Change in abundance<br />Change in total species<br />Changes in major guilds and genera<br />Changes in common abundant species<br />Maps of distributions<br />Maps of change<br />Public database of all records<br />Tons of specimens for collections, dna, revisions, display, etc.<br />Web-based yearly reports<br />
  20. 20. longer term results<br />
  21. 21. long-term product<br />Trends for individual species<br />Regional trends<br />Ability to detect large scale crashes for any year<br />Ability to compare to Canadian system<br />Ability to compare to European system<br />Ability to compare to UN-FAO sites<br />
  22. 22. more long-term product<br />Standardized methodology permits comparisons among sites<br />Patterns of distribution<br />Patterns of abundance<br />Patterns of composition<br />Patterns of fluctuations<br />Community analyses<br />Biogeography analyses<br />
  23. 23. the cost.<br />
  24. 24. cost per site<br />Labor<br />Collection <br />a few hours<br />Processing<br />1/10 of an FTE <br />each site run only every 5 years<br />Supplies and Equipment<br />$2,200<br />
  25. 25. other costs<br />Full time coordinator for the length of the project<br />
  26. 26. develop a monitoring plan<br /><ul><li> Evaluate methods
  27. 27. Determine where and how many sites you would need to detect declines
  28. 28. Evaluate cost</li></li></ul><li>a future.<br />
  29. 29. 4 separate sampling systems <br />National Forests<br />Fish and Wildlife Service Refuges<br />National Parks<br />Commercial Orchards or other Ag Systems<br />
  30. 30. usfs<br />
  31. 31.
  32. 32. sampling – For each of the four groups<br />year 1 – 50 new sites<br />year 2 – 50 new sites<br />year 4 – 50 new sites<br />year 5 – first 50 are repeated<br />…und so weiter<br />
  33. 33. centralized processing<br />2 sorting, processing, identification, and databasing centers (West and East)<br />170,000 bees a year between the two<br />Efficiency of scale<br />1 central coordinator<br />2 FTE’s doing the specimen processing<br />
  34. 34. New York Times reports:<br />“Bees in North America NOT declining!”<br />- Laurie Davies Adams, NAPPC 2015<br />
  35. 35. mission accomplished<br />

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