SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 5
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Pengertian


   Suatu tipe teknik peramalan rata-rata bergerak
 yang melakukan penimbangan terhadap data masa
    lalu dengan cara exponensial, sehingga data
      terakhir akan memiliki bobot lebih besar.
                (Handoko, 1984:279)
Rumus 


         L0 = [Sum(i=1 to n)Di]/n
          Ft+1 = Lt and Ft+n = Lt
          Lt+1 = aDt+1 + (1-a)Lt
  Lt+1 = Sum(n=0 to t+1)[a(1-a)nDt+1-n ]

            Ket: Dt+1 = Demand dari hasil observasi (sudah ada data)
                 0<α<1
Contoh Perhitungan
  Quarter     Demand Dt
   II, 1998     8000
  III, 1998     13000
  IV, 1998      23000
   I, 1999      34000
   II, 1999     10000
  III, 1999     18000
  IV, 1999      23000
   I, 2000      38000
   II, 2000     12000
  III, 2000     13000
  IV, 2000      32000
   I, 2001      41000
Proses perhitungan (lanj)

L0 = Sum(i=1 to 12)[Di]/12 = 22083
F1 = L0 = 22083
Berdasarkan data pada tabel = D1 = 8000
Jadi dapat diketahui Forecast Errornya (Et):
E1 = F1 - D1 = 22083 - 8000 = 14083
Assuming a = 0.1, Maka dapat dihitunga level 1:
L1 = aD1 + (1-a)L0 = (0.1)(8000) + (0.9)(22083) =
20675
F2 = L1 = 20675

More Related Content

Recently uploaded

Refleksi Mandiri Modul 1.3 - KANVAS BAGJA.pptx.pptx
Refleksi Mandiri Modul 1.3 - KANVAS BAGJA.pptx.pptxRefleksi Mandiri Modul 1.3 - KANVAS BAGJA.pptx.pptx
Refleksi Mandiri Modul 1.3 - KANVAS BAGJA.pptx.pptxIrfanAudah1
 
REFLEKSI MANDIRI_Prakarsa Perubahan BAGJA Modul 1.3.pdf
REFLEKSI MANDIRI_Prakarsa Perubahan BAGJA Modul 1.3.pdfREFLEKSI MANDIRI_Prakarsa Perubahan BAGJA Modul 1.3.pdf
REFLEKSI MANDIRI_Prakarsa Perubahan BAGJA Modul 1.3.pdfirwanabidin08
 
Materi Sosiologi Kelas X Bab 1. Ragam Gejala Sosial dalam Masyarakat (Kurikul...
Materi Sosiologi Kelas X Bab 1. Ragam Gejala Sosial dalam Masyarakat (Kurikul...Materi Sosiologi Kelas X Bab 1. Ragam Gejala Sosial dalam Masyarakat (Kurikul...
Materi Sosiologi Kelas X Bab 1. Ragam Gejala Sosial dalam Masyarakat (Kurikul...asepsaefudin2009
 
PELAKSANAAN + Link-Link MATERI Training_ "Effective INVENTORY & WAREHOUSING...
PELAKSANAAN  + Link-Link MATERI Training_ "Effective INVENTORY &  WAREHOUSING...PELAKSANAAN  + Link-Link MATERI Training_ "Effective INVENTORY &  WAREHOUSING...
PELAKSANAAN + Link-Link MATERI Training_ "Effective INVENTORY & WAREHOUSING...Kanaidi ken
 
1.3.a.3. Mulai dari Diri - Modul 1.3 Refleksi 1 Imajinasiku tentang Murid di ...
1.3.a.3. Mulai dari Diri - Modul 1.3 Refleksi 1 Imajinasiku tentang Murid di ...1.3.a.3. Mulai dari Diri - Modul 1.3 Refleksi 1 Imajinasiku tentang Murid di ...
1.3.a.3. Mulai dari Diri - Modul 1.3 Refleksi 1 Imajinasiku tentang Murid di ...MetalinaSimanjuntak1
 
Perumusan Visi dan Prakarsa Perubahan.pptx
Perumusan Visi dan Prakarsa Perubahan.pptxPerumusan Visi dan Prakarsa Perubahan.pptx
Perumusan Visi dan Prakarsa Perubahan.pptxadimulianta1
 
MAKALAH KELOMPOK 7 ADMINISTRASI LAYANAN KHUSUS.pdf
MAKALAH KELOMPOK 7 ADMINISTRASI LAYANAN KHUSUS.pdfMAKALAH KELOMPOK 7 ADMINISTRASI LAYANAN KHUSUS.pdf
MAKALAH KELOMPOK 7 ADMINISTRASI LAYANAN KHUSUS.pdfChananMfd
 
PPT AKSI NYATA KOMUNITAS BELAJAR .ppt di SD
PPT AKSI NYATA KOMUNITAS BELAJAR .ppt di SDPPT AKSI NYATA KOMUNITAS BELAJAR .ppt di SD
PPT AKSI NYATA KOMUNITAS BELAJAR .ppt di SDNurainiNuraini25
 
aksi nyata penyebaran pemahaman merdeka belajar
aksi nyata penyebaran pemahaman merdeka belajaraksi nyata penyebaran pemahaman merdeka belajar
aksi nyata penyebaran pemahaman merdeka belajarHafidRanggasi
 
LATAR BELAKANG JURNAL DIALOGIS REFLEKTIF.ppt
LATAR BELAKANG JURNAL DIALOGIS REFLEKTIF.pptLATAR BELAKANG JURNAL DIALOGIS REFLEKTIF.ppt
LATAR BELAKANG JURNAL DIALOGIS REFLEKTIF.pptPpsSambirejo
 
presentasi lembaga negara yang ada di indonesia
presentasi lembaga negara yang ada di indonesiapresentasi lembaga negara yang ada di indonesia
presentasi lembaga negara yang ada di indonesiaNILAMSARI269850
 
Membuat Komik Digital Berisi Kritik Sosial.docx
Membuat Komik Digital Berisi Kritik Sosial.docxMembuat Komik Digital Berisi Kritik Sosial.docx
Membuat Komik Digital Berisi Kritik Sosial.docxNurindahSetyawati1
 
PELAKSANAAN + Link2 Materi BimTek _PTK 007 Rev-5 Thn 2023 (PENGADAAN) & Perhi...
PELAKSANAAN + Link2 Materi BimTek _PTK 007 Rev-5 Thn 2023 (PENGADAAN) & Perhi...PELAKSANAAN + Link2 Materi BimTek _PTK 007 Rev-5 Thn 2023 (PENGADAAN) & Perhi...
PELAKSANAAN + Link2 Materi BimTek _PTK 007 Rev-5 Thn 2023 (PENGADAAN) & Perhi...Kanaidi ken
 
Latsol TWK Nasionalisme untuk masuk CPNS
Latsol TWK Nasionalisme untuk masuk CPNSLatsol TWK Nasionalisme untuk masuk CPNS
Latsol TWK Nasionalisme untuk masuk CPNSdheaprs
 
AKSI NYATA BERBAGI PRAKTIK BAIK MELALUI PMM
AKSI NYATA BERBAGI PRAKTIK BAIK MELALUI PMMAKSI NYATA BERBAGI PRAKTIK BAIK MELALUI PMM
AKSI NYATA BERBAGI PRAKTIK BAIK MELALUI PMMIGustiBagusGending
 
MODUL P5 KEWIRAUSAHAAN SMAN 2 SLAWI 2023.pptx
MODUL P5 KEWIRAUSAHAAN SMAN 2 SLAWI 2023.pptxMODUL P5 KEWIRAUSAHAAN SMAN 2 SLAWI 2023.pptx
MODUL P5 KEWIRAUSAHAAN SMAN 2 SLAWI 2023.pptxSlasiWidasmara1
 
Modul Ajar Pendidikan Pancasila Kelas 5 Fase C
Modul Ajar Pendidikan Pancasila Kelas 5 Fase CModul Ajar Pendidikan Pancasila Kelas 5 Fase C
Modul Ajar Pendidikan Pancasila Kelas 5 Fase CAbdiera
 
Pendidikan-Bahasa-Indonesia-di-SD MODUL 3 .pptx
Pendidikan-Bahasa-Indonesia-di-SD MODUL 3 .pptxPendidikan-Bahasa-Indonesia-di-SD MODUL 3 .pptx
Pendidikan-Bahasa-Indonesia-di-SD MODUL 3 .pptxdeskaputriani1
 
Prakarsa Perubahan ATAP (Awal - Tantangan - Aksi - Perubahan)
Prakarsa Perubahan ATAP (Awal - Tantangan - Aksi - Perubahan)Prakarsa Perubahan ATAP (Awal - Tantangan - Aksi - Perubahan)
Prakarsa Perubahan ATAP (Awal - Tantangan - Aksi - Perubahan)MustahalMustahal
 
2 KISI-KISI Ujian Sekolah Dasar mata pelajaranPPKn 2024.pdf
2 KISI-KISI Ujian Sekolah Dasar  mata pelajaranPPKn 2024.pdf2 KISI-KISI Ujian Sekolah Dasar  mata pelajaranPPKn 2024.pdf
2 KISI-KISI Ujian Sekolah Dasar mata pelajaranPPKn 2024.pdfsdn3jatiblora
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Refleksi Mandiri Modul 1.3 - KANVAS BAGJA.pptx.pptx
Refleksi Mandiri Modul 1.3 - KANVAS BAGJA.pptx.pptxRefleksi Mandiri Modul 1.3 - KANVAS BAGJA.pptx.pptx
Refleksi Mandiri Modul 1.3 - KANVAS BAGJA.pptx.pptx
 
REFLEKSI MANDIRI_Prakarsa Perubahan BAGJA Modul 1.3.pdf
REFLEKSI MANDIRI_Prakarsa Perubahan BAGJA Modul 1.3.pdfREFLEKSI MANDIRI_Prakarsa Perubahan BAGJA Modul 1.3.pdf
REFLEKSI MANDIRI_Prakarsa Perubahan BAGJA Modul 1.3.pdf
 
Materi Sosiologi Kelas X Bab 1. Ragam Gejala Sosial dalam Masyarakat (Kurikul...
Materi Sosiologi Kelas X Bab 1. Ragam Gejala Sosial dalam Masyarakat (Kurikul...Materi Sosiologi Kelas X Bab 1. Ragam Gejala Sosial dalam Masyarakat (Kurikul...
Materi Sosiologi Kelas X Bab 1. Ragam Gejala Sosial dalam Masyarakat (Kurikul...
 
PELAKSANAAN + Link-Link MATERI Training_ "Effective INVENTORY & WAREHOUSING...
PELAKSANAAN  + Link-Link MATERI Training_ "Effective INVENTORY &  WAREHOUSING...PELAKSANAAN  + Link-Link MATERI Training_ "Effective INVENTORY &  WAREHOUSING...
PELAKSANAAN + Link-Link MATERI Training_ "Effective INVENTORY & WAREHOUSING...
 
1.3.a.3. Mulai dari Diri - Modul 1.3 Refleksi 1 Imajinasiku tentang Murid di ...
1.3.a.3. Mulai dari Diri - Modul 1.3 Refleksi 1 Imajinasiku tentang Murid di ...1.3.a.3. Mulai dari Diri - Modul 1.3 Refleksi 1 Imajinasiku tentang Murid di ...
1.3.a.3. Mulai dari Diri - Modul 1.3 Refleksi 1 Imajinasiku tentang Murid di ...
 
Perumusan Visi dan Prakarsa Perubahan.pptx
Perumusan Visi dan Prakarsa Perubahan.pptxPerumusan Visi dan Prakarsa Perubahan.pptx
Perumusan Visi dan Prakarsa Perubahan.pptx
 
MAKALAH KELOMPOK 7 ADMINISTRASI LAYANAN KHUSUS.pdf
MAKALAH KELOMPOK 7 ADMINISTRASI LAYANAN KHUSUS.pdfMAKALAH KELOMPOK 7 ADMINISTRASI LAYANAN KHUSUS.pdf
MAKALAH KELOMPOK 7 ADMINISTRASI LAYANAN KHUSUS.pdf
 
PPT AKSI NYATA KOMUNITAS BELAJAR .ppt di SD
PPT AKSI NYATA KOMUNITAS BELAJAR .ppt di SDPPT AKSI NYATA KOMUNITAS BELAJAR .ppt di SD
PPT AKSI NYATA KOMUNITAS BELAJAR .ppt di SD
 
aksi nyata penyebaran pemahaman merdeka belajar
aksi nyata penyebaran pemahaman merdeka belajaraksi nyata penyebaran pemahaman merdeka belajar
aksi nyata penyebaran pemahaman merdeka belajar
 
LATAR BELAKANG JURNAL DIALOGIS REFLEKTIF.ppt
LATAR BELAKANG JURNAL DIALOGIS REFLEKTIF.pptLATAR BELAKANG JURNAL DIALOGIS REFLEKTIF.ppt
LATAR BELAKANG JURNAL DIALOGIS REFLEKTIF.ppt
 
presentasi lembaga negara yang ada di indonesia
presentasi lembaga negara yang ada di indonesiapresentasi lembaga negara yang ada di indonesia
presentasi lembaga negara yang ada di indonesia
 
Membuat Komik Digital Berisi Kritik Sosial.docx
Membuat Komik Digital Berisi Kritik Sosial.docxMembuat Komik Digital Berisi Kritik Sosial.docx
Membuat Komik Digital Berisi Kritik Sosial.docx
 
PELAKSANAAN + Link2 Materi BimTek _PTK 007 Rev-5 Thn 2023 (PENGADAAN) & Perhi...
PELAKSANAAN + Link2 Materi BimTek _PTK 007 Rev-5 Thn 2023 (PENGADAAN) & Perhi...PELAKSANAAN + Link2 Materi BimTek _PTK 007 Rev-5 Thn 2023 (PENGADAAN) & Perhi...
PELAKSANAAN + Link2 Materi BimTek _PTK 007 Rev-5 Thn 2023 (PENGADAAN) & Perhi...
 
Latsol TWK Nasionalisme untuk masuk CPNS
Latsol TWK Nasionalisme untuk masuk CPNSLatsol TWK Nasionalisme untuk masuk CPNS
Latsol TWK Nasionalisme untuk masuk CPNS
 
AKSI NYATA BERBAGI PRAKTIK BAIK MELALUI PMM
AKSI NYATA BERBAGI PRAKTIK BAIK MELALUI PMMAKSI NYATA BERBAGI PRAKTIK BAIK MELALUI PMM
AKSI NYATA BERBAGI PRAKTIK BAIK MELALUI PMM
 
MODUL P5 KEWIRAUSAHAAN SMAN 2 SLAWI 2023.pptx
MODUL P5 KEWIRAUSAHAAN SMAN 2 SLAWI 2023.pptxMODUL P5 KEWIRAUSAHAAN SMAN 2 SLAWI 2023.pptx
MODUL P5 KEWIRAUSAHAAN SMAN 2 SLAWI 2023.pptx
 
Modul Ajar Pendidikan Pancasila Kelas 5 Fase C
Modul Ajar Pendidikan Pancasila Kelas 5 Fase CModul Ajar Pendidikan Pancasila Kelas 5 Fase C
Modul Ajar Pendidikan Pancasila Kelas 5 Fase C
 
Pendidikan-Bahasa-Indonesia-di-SD MODUL 3 .pptx
Pendidikan-Bahasa-Indonesia-di-SD MODUL 3 .pptxPendidikan-Bahasa-Indonesia-di-SD MODUL 3 .pptx
Pendidikan-Bahasa-Indonesia-di-SD MODUL 3 .pptx
 
Prakarsa Perubahan ATAP (Awal - Tantangan - Aksi - Perubahan)
Prakarsa Perubahan ATAP (Awal - Tantangan - Aksi - Perubahan)Prakarsa Perubahan ATAP (Awal - Tantangan - Aksi - Perubahan)
Prakarsa Perubahan ATAP (Awal - Tantangan - Aksi - Perubahan)
 
2 KISI-KISI Ujian Sekolah Dasar mata pelajaranPPKn 2024.pdf
2 KISI-KISI Ujian Sekolah Dasar  mata pelajaranPPKn 2024.pdf2 KISI-KISI Ujian Sekolah Dasar  mata pelajaranPPKn 2024.pdf
2 KISI-KISI Ujian Sekolah Dasar mata pelajaranPPKn 2024.pdf
 

Featured

Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTEverything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTExpeed Software
 
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsProduct Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
 
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
 
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfAI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024Neil Kimberley
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsKurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Tessa Mero
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...RachelPearson36
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
 

Featured (20)

Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTEverything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
 
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsProduct Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
 
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
 
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfAI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
 
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture CodeSkeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
 

Simple Exponential Smoothing Method Document

  • 2. Pengertian Suatu tipe teknik peramalan rata-rata bergerak yang melakukan penimbangan terhadap data masa lalu dengan cara exponensial, sehingga data terakhir akan memiliki bobot lebih besar. (Handoko, 1984:279)
  • 3. Rumus  L0 = [Sum(i=1 to n)Di]/n Ft+1 = Lt and Ft+n = Lt Lt+1 = aDt+1 + (1-a)Lt Lt+1 = Sum(n=0 to t+1)[a(1-a)nDt+1-n ] Ket: Dt+1 = Demand dari hasil observasi (sudah ada data) 0<α<1
  • 4. Contoh Perhitungan Quarter Demand Dt II, 1998 8000 III, 1998 13000 IV, 1998 23000 I, 1999 34000 II, 1999 10000 III, 1999 18000 IV, 1999 23000 I, 2000 38000 II, 2000 12000 III, 2000 13000 IV, 2000 32000 I, 2001 41000
  • 5. Proses perhitungan (lanj) L0 = Sum(i=1 to 12)[Di]/12 = 22083 F1 = L0 = 22083 Berdasarkan data pada tabel = D1 = 8000 Jadi dapat diketahui Forecast Errornya (Et): E1 = F1 - D1 = 22083 - 8000 = 14083 Assuming a = 0.1, Maka dapat dihitunga level 1: L1 = aD1 + (1-a)L0 = (0.1)(8000) + (0.9)(22083) = 20675 F2 = L1 = 20675