The document summarizes political risk forecasts and analyses that The PRS Group has provided for several countries: - For Honduras in 2015, PRS predicted increased political instability from a Supreme Court decision removing presidential term limits and fueling protests against President Juan Orlando Hernandez. This has deepened partisan divides threatening governance. - For Indonesia in 2014, PRS highlighted risks from President Joko Widodo's lack of party leadership and potential interference hampering promised reforms, which has come to pass with controversial appointments diminishing his popularity. - For Guyana in 2015, PRS correctly forecast that an electoral alliance would end the PPP-C's long rule, which occurred when the alliance narrowly won the May 2015 election

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HONDURAS - Forecasted 2/15
A PRS update on Honduras issued in February 2015 noted the potential
for moves by members of the governing PN to end the one-term limit on
the presidency to impede President Juan Orlando’s ability to secure the
cooperation of opposition lawmakers required to pass legislation and to
fuel a worrisome increase in domestic political instability. In April, the
country’s politicized Supreme Court threw out the term limit, a decision
that triggered a wave of protests that, with the additional fuel provided by
a corruption scandal, have increasingly featured calls for President Juan
Orlando Hernandez to resign. The ruling has also put the opposition
parties in campaign mode, as they scramble to coax former presidents out of retirement and reconnect with voters, a
development that is likely to deepen the partisan divides that pose a threat to effective governance.
INDONESIA - Forecasted 3/14
In our March 2014 pre-election update on Indonesia, PRS highlighted the
political risk arising from the fact that the favorite to win the presidential
election, Joko “Jokowi” Widodi, is not the leader of the PDI-P, under whose
banner he won the top job, and that his ability to deliver on key campaign
promises, which included a pledge to crack down on corruption, could be
hampered by interference from party leader Megawati Sukarnoputri and
other top officials in the PDI-P. The president’s anti-corruption credentials
have already been tarnished by his controversial decision to nominate
scandal-tainted Buni Gunawan, a close political ally of Megawati, to head
the national police force, and the resulting damage to Jokowi’s popularity dims his prospects for successfully steer
controversial reform measures through the opposition-dominated legislature.
GUYANA - Forecasted 2/15
In our February 2015 update on Guyana, PRS forecast that an electoral
alliance of the multiparty APNU coalition and the smaller AFC would bring
an end to the long reign of the PPP-C. The APNU-AFC alliance barely
edged out the incumbents at an early election held in May 2015, positioning
the PNC-R, the PPP-C’s historical rival and the lead party in APNU, to
head the government for the first time in 18 years.
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With analysts placed globally, we supplement our forecasting
methodology with human sources around the world. The following examples represent analysis The PRS Group
has provided clients in the past, providing invaluable insight into pressing challenges worldwide.
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