1. Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
Volatile Years, Steady Calls
In our January 2013 report on Egypt, PRS noted that the growing polarization of Islamist and secular political forces made the survival
of President Mohamed Morsi’s government contingent upon the backing of the military, and it was our view that the government’s ability
to maintain order and protect the interests of the armed forces would determine whether the regime could count on such support. As
we predicted would be the case if the government failed to fulfill those conditions, the military forced Morsi and the Islamist government
from power in July 2013.
In October 2013, PRS highlighted the risk of a renewed bout of destabilizing political demonstrations in Thailand if the PTP government
made any moves to clear a path for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to resume an active political career, and pointed to
proposed amnesty legislation as a probable trigger for that negative development. That proved to be the case, and mass protests
organized in response forced Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to call an early—and ultimately inconclusive—election that has left the
country on the brink of a governance crisis.
Since early 2014, conditions inside Venezuela have been characterized by spreading, and increasingly violent, episodes of political
unrest that have shaken the foundation of the country’s socialist regime. In our May 2013 report on Venezuela, published shortly after
President Nicolás Maduro’s victory in a special presidential election necessitated by the death of Hugo Chávez, PRS noted that the
political impediments to addressing the economic imbalances produced by Chávez’s populist policies created a high risk of politically
motivated turmoil. Our assessment was that the protests would be disruptive, but would not pose a significant threat to Maduro’s hold
on power, and that remains our view.
Our February 2013 assessment of the outlook for political stability in Brazil highlighted the potential for unmet economic expectations
and the government’s failure to tackle a serious urban crime problem to generate social unrest. As has been the case since the
nationwide protests in June 2013, PRS forecast that the most significant impact would be a decline in the popularity of President
Dilma Rousseff, a possibility that factored into the reduced probability that the October 2014 elections will produce another center-left
government.
Polls in India suggest that neither the incumbent UPA bloc nor the main opposition NDA will win more than one-third of the seats in
the Lok Sabha at elections that will be held this spring. As early as 2011, we forecast that smaller regional parties would gain at the
expense of the two dominant rivals, creating a medium-term impediment to achieving consensus on a national agenda, and with the
elections now just weeks away, the evidence is pointing strongly in that direction.
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