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January 12, 2023
Our children - Newspaper - DAWN.COM
dawn.com/news/1731212/our-children
MUCH has been made of the billions of dollars in donor pledges
recently secured by our government during the International
Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan held in Geneva. It is
regrettable, however, that compared to the attention the event
received, there seems to be very little concern for the people it
was actually held for. Consider, for example, a recent news
report citing a United Nations Children’s Fund warning that up to
4m children are still living in great peril next to contaminated
and stagnant floodwater that, months later, refuses to drain out
from some of the districts that were worst-affected by last year’s
terrible monsoon. Unicef also says that the incidence of acute
respiratory infections has skyrocketed in the flood-stricken areas,
while the number of children identified as suffering from severe,
acute malnutrition has nearly doubled between July and
December as compared to 2021. Unicef estimates that about 1.5m
children are in need of life-saving nutrition interventions.
Unicef’s country representative believes that “Nearly 10m girls
and boys are still in need of immediate, life-saving support and
are heading into a bitter winter without adequate shelter. Severe
acute malnutrition, respiratory and waterborne diseases,
coupled with the cold, are putting millions of young lives at risk”.
These are our own children that are being talked about. We
should not wait for international donors to make good on their
pledges to take action for their welfare. With cold waves forecast
for many flood-affected regions in the coming days, steps should
be taken on an emergency basis to protect at-risk children from
at least the worst of the weather. Unicef needs about $110m
dollars more to ensure life-saving support to women and
children affected by the
fl
oods. The country should
fi
nd that
money on a priority basis. Nothing can be more important than
ensuring that our youngest are at least protected from illness and
hunger after they have had their lives uprooted.
Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
Opinion
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January 12, 2023
Irresponsible words
dawn.com/news/1731213/irresponsible-words
ISHAQ Dar’s clarification that the government doesn’t plan to
seize foreign currency stocks held with the commercial banks
should put paid to widespread speculations that he ever intended
to ‘freeze’ private citizens’ dollar accounts as he had done in the
wake of US sanctions following Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998.
The finance minister’s remarks came days after his statement
that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $10bn — a
much higher number than the central bank’s reserves of $4.5bn
— as ‘dollars held by the banks also belonged to the country’.
That had fuelled rumours that the declining SBP forex reserves
may force the government to confiscate private foreign currency
accounts to avert a default. He assured the public that nothing of
the sort would happen. Elaborating, he rightly said it was a
practice to include in the national foreign exchange reserves the
foreign exchange held both with the central banks and the
commercial banks, and give a breakdown.
Speaking at a press conference alongside the prime minister, Mr
Dar said his statement was ‘twisted by those who had destroyed
the country’s economy in the last four years’. There is every
possibility of the opposition giving his remarks a spin that would
undermine the government. But the nation’s growing dollar
crunch and disappearance of foreign currency from the market
has led many to empty their accounts in the recent weeks. That
the minister’s irresponsible statement was enough to fuel panic
even without the opposition twisting his words cannot be
ignored, especially considering his track record. The freezing of
the private foreign currency accounts during his first tenure as
finance minister was a blunder that left public confidence
severely shaken. Even if he doesn’t plan to freeze private dollar
accounts, Mr Dar’s obsession with a strong rupee and
management of the exchange rate at the cost of the country’s IMF
programme is exacting a steep price. When he said at the presser
that the next tranche from the IMF has been delayed due to the
differences over revenue collection, it was but a half-truth. His
management of the foreign exchange market that has created a
wide gap between the interbank and open market dollar rates is
an even bigger issue. It is time Mr Dar learnt to unlearn what he
has believed until now. And he should stop making irresponsible
public statements.
Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
Opinion
January 12, 2023
Wheeling & dealing - Newspaper
dawn.com/news/1731214/wheeling-dealing
WHENEVER general elections draw close, the nation’s ‘electables’
and ‘influentials’ begin a frantic search for political platforms
which they can attach themselves to, to ensure they get a share of
power. And often the invisible hands that play an oversized role
in managing Pakistan’s politics are at work ‘guiding’ these
political nomads towards what are likely to be winning tickets.
Though no schedule for the polls has been announced, these
activities have begun in Balochistan, as well as in Karachi and
south Punjab, as electables size up their prospects, and the
establishment continues its efforts to mould outcomes. In
Balochistan, an unlikely candidate in the shape of former chief
minister Aslam Raisani recently joined the JUI-F, even though the
Baloch sardar has little in common with the ideology of Maulana
Fazlur Rehman’s party. Earlier, other Baloch notables also joined
the JUI-F. Meanwhile, a number of provincial lawmakers of BAP,
which runs Balochistan, have jumped ship and joined the PPP
under Asif Zardari’s watchful eye. BAP itself is believed to be an
artificial construct, created in 2018 by the powers that be to rule
Balochistan. Over in Karachi, efforts continue under the Sindh
governor’s tutelage to unite the different factions of the MQM,
namely Bahadurabad, PSP and the Farooq Sattar group, though
the pro-Altaf London faction is likely to be left out of this
formula. The wheeling and dealing in Karachi is also believed to
have the blessings of the gentlemen in Rawalpindi. In south
Punjab, electables are reportedly waiting for a signal from higher
powers to make their move.
The fact that political engineering continues was highlighted
recently by Imran Khan, when the PTI leader made specific
mention of the BAP and MQM developments. It appears that
promises made by the former army chief to withdraw the
military from politics have not been fulfilled. To assume that the
establishment would totally withdraw from the political game it
has dominated for decades was naïve, but there should at least
be some effort to disengage and let civilian politicians sort out
matters. Yet it is also sadly true that many politicians themselves
are to blame for looking to GHQ for ‘guidance.’
In Balochistan’s case, the establishment’s involvement has
retarded political evolution in the province, adding to the
people’s alienation with the state. The electables that are herded
together to run Balochistan have repeatedly failed to solve the
province’s myriad problems, leaving the common voter
disillusioned with the system. Only by allowing the organic
growth of the political system in Balochistan can stability come to
this troubled province, and the healing process begin in earnest.
This also rings true for Karachi and the rest of Pakistan. Instead
of manufacturing alliances, let all stakeholders — primarily the
political class and the military — work to strengthen grassroots
democracy.
Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
Opinion
January 12, 2023
Truly unlucky - Newspaper - DAWN.COM
dawn.com/news/1731215/truly-unlucky
THERE is a growing recognition amongst economists and
political scientists that in many developing countries, an
externally guided development effort has not been as effective as
hoped. The fact is, the primary onus for prosperity is on the
country itself. Development cannot be imposed with a
prescription from outside. Pakistan is truly unlucky not to have
come to terms with this notion.
Our story is one of gradual deterioration of state capability. This
has coincided with an increase in policy complexity and
uncertainty. Tackling these challenges requires a certain level of
professional expertise which is beyond the prowess of a
generalist bureaucracy. Pakistan has increased its reliance on
growing availability of external expertise to complement the
administrative set-up. Independent think tanks, non-profit
organisations, consultancy firms, multilateral and bilateral
partners have carved their own niche in federal and provincial
policy work.
Policy in Pakistan is frequently guided by external counsel as
evident in programme loans prescribing good governance and
project loans advocating changes to rail, road and energy
infrastructure. The country leans on outside resources to give
credence to documents like the recent flood assessment or while
drafting its laws to meet global standards. Technical assistance
and capacity building missions have been frequent. Their focus
has been to support prestigious organisations like SBP, FBR, etc.
The strategy of outsourcing research and policy work — as
though it would solve our perennial issues — has been
misplaced. Numerous tax reform projects have had a marginal
impact at best. Pakistan is unable to devise proper capital gains
or inter-generational wealth transfer mechanisms. Our worst
failing is to willfully keep the retail and agriculture sectors out of
the direct tax net. Overall, the tax-to-GDP ratio for FY22 clocked
in at an abysmal 10.2 per cent. Our performance has stayed
constant around this unsatisfactory level since decades. A tax-to-
GDP ratio of 15pc is considered the minimum threshold for
governments to provide basic goods and services to their citizens
and meet the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
We have placed too much reliance on external expertise.
Success, if any, has been viewed narrowly as achieving near-term
programmed goals, rather than a meaningful structural change
in the economy. Our inability to undertake much-needed surgery
to treat underlying issues brings us to the IMF’s door every few
years — the current predicament being a case in point. Reeling
under double-digit inflation, dwindling foreign currency reserves
and a weakening rupee, this desperate nation is looking at
reviving the stalled IMF programme as the only hope of seeing
FY23 through without a default.
The premise that technical input is de rigueur is hard to disagree
with. However, that does not absolve a country of its own
responsibility to build in-house professional competence in key
areas like finance, revenue, energy, privatisation and investment,
among others. Pakistan has been unable to achieve this.
As countries outsource more of their functions in the name of
specialist input, it leads to a fatal worsening of their governance
structures. Such nations lose impetus to upskill their
bureaucracy or add local expertise. This seems to have played
out in Pakistan. Resultan­
t­
­
ly, waning capability and a low
absorption capacity have be­
­
come core reasons for poor
governance at all tiers in the country.
Decision-makers have had a lazy obsession with ‘ideological
necrophilia’. Venezuelan journalist and writer Moisés Naím
coined this term for ideas that have been tried but found
wanting. Del­
e­
gating policy work is one such idea.
Good policy is about good human resource. Pakistan needs to roll
out a new ‘capability playbook’, setting out a structure to
complement administrative bureaucracy with the right
professionals. Some ideas to build expertise include allowing
intake at all tiers of bureaucracy, specialised training of civil
servants and incentivised pay structures.
The idea of capability building — policymaking in the 21st
century — must lead us to wider engagement with
multidisciplinary expertise within the country. The government
can nurture linkages with universities to encourage research as a
source for decision-making. Policymakers’ liaising with the
private sector can go beyond petty discussions on subsidy and
distortionary utility pricing. Involvement of such expertise can
have a snowball effect to influence key structural issues.
We must not lose faith in our own capability. This is the only
narrative Pakistan shou­
­
ld be building, honouring and practicing.
The writer is a former adviser to the finance ministry.
khaqanhnajeeb@gmail.com
Twitter: @KhaqanNajeeb
Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
January 12, 2023
Back to begging - Newspaper
dawn.com/news/1731216/back-to-begging
RETURNING from Karachi to Lahore this week was like sliding
down a thermometer from cool to freezing. One had forgotten
how delicious the enervating sunshine of Karachi could be, or
how within a fortnight Lahore could descend into a misty, bone-
chilling Antarctica.
The Superhighway connecting Karachi and Hyderabad remained
underutilised after it opened in the 1970s. Soon, overladen trucks
discovered its utility. After that, the heavy traffic resulted in deep
ruts in the road, like those caused by chariot wheels in ancient
Pompeii. Today, its surface is again serviceable.
En route to Hyderabad, if you want a vis­
ion of the future, take
the turning into Bah­
ria Town 1. You cannot miss it. It is mar­
ked
by an empty, idol-less temple whose sandy columns copy those of
Luxor in Egypt.
Bahria Town, like Islamabad, is not designed for pedestrians.
Well-maintained avenues sweep through caverns of innumerable
flats, some complete and others under construction, all speaking
of quality. One hill is crowned by the sprawling private villa of
Bahria Town’s prime mover — Malik Riaz. Its green lawns
cascade down the hillside. On the crest of the second pro­
montory
is the majestic white mosque which, when complete, will rival
the Bad­
shahi mosque in Lahore, without its history.
Nothing remains beyond the third generation.
From Hyderabad, the route to Sehwan passes along the spine of
Pakistan’s agronomy. Some fields are still inundated with
floodwater, their hapless tillers sheltering under makeshift tents,
waiting for a hollow future.
Sehwan still retains its sanctity — if you can find it. In 1846, Lt
William Edwards wrote of it: ‘In its environs are many fine
mosques and tombs, and within the city is a remarkably splendid
masjid, built in honour of the celebrated Muslim saint, Lal
Shahbaz.’
Considering it was a Thursday, the gold-domed shrine had fewer
devotees within its precincts than the beggars cadging for a
living outside. Here, belief is forced to ignore hygiene.
Previous travellers had spoken of the hazards along the Sehwan-
Sukkur route. It proved remarkably clear and comfortable. Date
palm orchards gradually gave way to sugar cane plantations that
feed sugar mills which in turn feed the Zardari family.
One does not stay in Sukkur for its nightlife. It has neons but no
entertainment. One stays overnight out of necessity. If you find
the right room in a hotel on Military Road, you are insulated
from the noise of a constant convoy of traffic, day and night.
From on high, they seem like a column of dusty ants, moving in
both directions, intent only on avoiding collision.
Crossing the mighty Indus is a humbling experience, for here is
the river that irrigated a civilisation and gave India its name.
One could have continued to Lahore, had one not been tempted
to stop in Multan to see the enviable library of a local notable.
His lineage extends into the mists of history, and proudly he
shows the pedigree compiled by his forefathers and which he has
genderised by including the names of the females in his
expansive family.
His collection of manuscripts and modern first editions, and a
stable containing carriages in which his ancestors travelled,
deserves a public building. The land he and his relations
inherited in Multan has been dissected among generations of
claimants and in time by their children. As an American
billionaire once observed, nothing remains beyond the third
generation.
One would have preferred returning to Lahore by the Motorway,
had the unwelcome fog not intervened. The longer route along
the N5 is a painful journey, made uncomfortably tense by the
undisciplined traffic that, following the example of our political
leaders, recognises no rules. Sauve qui peut (every man for
himself) is the credo. The endless stream of traffic spewing
exhaust fumes became so crowded that one longed for a break in
which to breathe fresh air. We already have bottled water; when
will we market tinned air?
Lahore’s political atmosphere is anything but chilly. It is
incendiary. Sparks fly within the PTI-PML-Q alliance as PTI chief
Imran Khan and his partner CM Punjab Chaudhry Parvez Elahi
clash for authority. Imran Khan is still smarting from the lash of
the no-confidence motion that removed him from power in April
2022. Parvez Elahi has been out of power too long to relinquish it
on his partner’s say-so.
While they squabble like two bald men over a toothless comb,
the country suffers gas shortages, cap-less price increases and
foreign exchange famine. What could be more demeaning for a
nation that has arable land and the Indus than to import its
wheat from war-torn Ukraine?
It is reported that the new COAS General Asim Munir has made a
week-long trip to Saudi Arabia. He has been received with the
same condescending cordiality as his predecessors. Will that
include monetary largesse?
The writer is an author.
www.fsaijazuddin.pk
Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
January 12, 2023
The fast-track solar paradox
dawn.com/news/1731222/the-fast-track-solar-paradox
THREE months ago, in a major attempt to generate affordable
electricity, the new government unveiled its policy for fast-track
development of solar photovoltaics (PV) projects at an investors’
conference with strong incentives including exemption on all
import duties and taxes and a 70 per cent dollarised indexation
on tariff. The government also promised provision of land,
interconnection and mandatory purchase of all power produced
for 25 years. While the fast-track procurement of 10,000 MW of
solar PV is an ambitious initiative with regards to substituting
fossil fuel-generated electricity, the approach has a number of
major problems.
First and foremost, the fast-track policy to procure renewables
violates the primacy of the Indicative Generation Capacity
Expansion Plan which is the power sector’s central national
planning document, akin to its constitution. The IGCEP is
prepared by the National Transmission and Despatch Company
on a yearly basis to plan all power capacity additions to the
national grid for the next 10 years. It selects projects based on a
rigorous data modelling and least cost optimisation exercise
through the state-of-the-art generation planning software,
PLEXOS. In its latest version, the IGCEP 2022-31, almost 18GW of
wind and solar PV have been optimised for addition to the grid
by 2031, of which nearly 66pc is solar PV. This massive renewable
energy (RE) capacity is to be procured through annual
competitive bidding or auctions, as specified by the Alternative &
Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019. While developers and
investors have been waiting for these auctions for more than
four years now, none have taken place so far. Rather than
addressing this delay and participating through IGCEP, the
government’s fast-track policy has created an entirely new
category for RE projects, seeking a way around the national
planning process.
Introduction of such fast-track initiatives by the federal
government to ensure timely addition of affordable RE into the
national electricity grid is clear evidence that the power sector
institutions have failed to deliver on their mandate. Auctions for
cheap RE continue to be delayed while dollar-bought expensive
fossil fuels continue to burn. RE costs today have fallen well
below Rs10 per unit while some of the more expensive thermal
plants continue to cost more than four to five times that amount.
Moreover, even these exorbitant tariffs do not reflect the true
cost of fossil fuels which includes capacity payments, paid
regardless of power off-take, costing the nation Rs721 billion in
FY 2021-22 alone. In the oft-repeated words of chairman, Nepra,
we are literally burning dollars to generate electricity for the
consumer. Yet the continuous delay in RE auctions continues to
cost the nation dearly and the fast-track mindset, seeking to
circumvent this institutional impairment, only endorses the
laziness of institutions and the status quo.
Attempts to procure massive amounts of renewable energy all at once is more
indicative of an anxious mindset than timely planning.
The biggest problem with the fast-track approach is perhaps its
impact on investors. It is ironic that the government chose to
unveil this so-called panacea for the power sector crisis at an
investors’ conference, yet forgot the category III investors whose
projects have been waiting for competitive bidding by the
relevant agencies for four years now despite directions by the
Cabinet Committee on Energy to conduct auctions. Some of the
category III projects had even been approved and awarded tariff,
the lowest in the country’s history, but were deferred by the
power division to instead participate through auctions in
accordance with the ARE policy which had recently been drafted.
Yet auctions never took place and when they finally did in the
form of the fast-track initiative, these investors were ignored
altogether. Investor confidence is a delicate matter and once
shaken, takes years to recover. The fast-track mindset only adds
to this distrust and market volatility.
Global auction experience has also shown that massive amounts
of RE are best procured in distributed chunks steadily over
several years as lessons are incorporated from subsequent
auction rounds and the trust of local market is gained through
reliable signalling. Attempts to procure massive amounts of RE
all at once are more indicative of an anxious mindset than timely
and reliable planning and, instead of fostering the larger
ecosystem of investors and developers, sets the market back by
decades. The result is a continuation of boom and bust cycles of
energy procurement which stall the development of domestic
markets and keep the sector dependent on a few large
corporations and foreign supply chains.
It is also sad that the fast-track solar PV policy is being publicised
under the name of promoting indigenous energy sources,
whereas the truth is that with a 70pc dollarised indexation of
tariff the Pakistani citizen will be forced to buy the nation’s own
indigenous sources of energy as a ‘dollar indexed import’. Our
massive dollar dependency and debt burden will continue to
grow for decades to come unless we start prioritising local
markets, supply chains and investment.
At the same time this fast-track initiative is fraught with internal
contradictions. The power sector’s own CTBCM initiative foresees
a fully liberal and competitive market with flexible bilateral
contracts between buyers and sellers within a few years,
whereas the fast-track initiative offers 25-year energy purchase
agreements with guarantees of mandatory off-take. We are still
paying penalties for similar long-term contracts with thermal
IPPs in the past and it is time we learnt a lesson.
While the IGCEP may have its own deficiencies, it cannot be
sidestepped. Investor confidence and market perception cannot
be ignored. Far more than quick additions to electricity capacity,
Pakistan’s national electricity policy envisions a developed
market, active participation of the private sector, local value
creation and socioeconomic advancement. Both the government
and the power sector must recognise this vision, learn from their
past mistakes and prioritise consistent policies if they wish to
find a permanent way out of this electricity crisis and towards a
stable economy.
The writer is an energy specialist at Renewables First, a Pakistan-
based energy think tank.
Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
January 12, 2023
Spending $10 billion
dawn.com/news/1731230/spending-10-billion
THE world’s first donor conference in Geneva, convened
specifically to support the victims of climate-induced disaster,
has pledged more than $10 billion for Pakistan. This offers
Pakistan a rare opportunity to shed its image of a passive
recipient of climate disasters. Instead of being a victim only, the
country can now undertake a series of well-deliberated, long-
term measures for strengthening the resilience of its people and
infrastructure. The strategic vision shared by the Pakistani
leadership with the international community at the conference
was that Pakistan will pursue social inclusion and participation
as a strategic objective. How can Pakistan honour this
commitment, or spend the $10bn put on the table? This is as good
a time as any to initiate reforms to reduce climate vulnerability,
consolidate these partnerships, and build back stronger and
faster.
Resilient development is not possible without institutional
reforms. The urgency is staring us in the face with a current
price tag of eight per cent GDP loss and projected GDP shrinking
20pc by 2050. In fact, resilience, reforms and economic
development have become intrinsically linked. Pakistan’s
existing political and economic systems breed climate
vulnerability, made worse by food and water insecurity,
degraded land and polluted air. The proposition is relatively
straightforward: higher degree of preparedness can help us
avoid public and private losses from climate-induced disasters.
Resources saved can be invested on climate-smart development.
But no matter how important, reforms are always driven by local
politics. They are particularly hard to undertake in a traditional
society. Provinces and regions in our federal system are governed
by different political parties who jealously guard their autonomy.
Pursuing a reform agenda is particularly challenging in the
present political context where consensus-building in a coalition
government can be risky and time-consuming. The first order of
business is to build political consensus that reforms for climate
security are essential and cannot be postponed any longer.
Fortunately, most of the essential institutional, legal and
economic reforms are part of the unfinished agenda of the 18th
Amendment that enjoys national consensus, except for
occasional dissension by some interest groups.
Not all international pledges will be delivered this month or
during this fiscal year, even if many are recounted, recycled and
repurposed existing commitments. Yet, Pakistan is notorious for
delayed implementation of its public sector projects. Unfinished
projects have accumulated over time to an unbelievable number
— more than 1,200 projects worth Rs1.6 trillion.
Top-down investments cannot succeed without strengthening the coping
capacity of local communities.
This is many times higher than the size of the annual Public
Sector Development Programme. Given the long list of already
approved projects by PSDP, the Planning Commission and ECNEC
and their provincial counterparts can obligate the pledged
amounts in a matter of weeks, if not days. But then, like
hundreds of earlier projects, these will not be finished in a timely
manner, efficiently and impactfully. Inordinate delays in
implementation not only mean cost overruns, but delays also
obstruct accountability and cast shadows on transparency.
The project delivery system is already stretched to the seams.
Going forward, it is imperative for us to take a fresh look at how
best we can spend development funds. The risk is that unspent
funds will be repurposed yet again, as has become frequent
practice in the country in recent years. The underspend of
allocated budgets is, more often than not, a sign of
mismanagement and incompetence. Public sector projects often
have over-allocation to give headroom to senior officials and
project managers for other urgencies.
This is the right time for Pakistan to learn from two recent
experiences. First, after the 2005 earthquake, a similar
Conference on Rehabilita­
tion and Reconstruction of the areas
affected resulted in pledges of $3.5bn. Likewise, a meeting of
Friends of Pakistan co-convened in 2008 by the World Bank and
Japan, resulted in commitments of $5.8bn for development and
counterterrorism. In both cases, Pakistan could not fully avail the
pledges, and there is still no report on the reasons why such
opportunities were allowed to slip by.
Some operational lessons from recent experiences in different
provinces under various projects can guide us. The delivery
speed was appreciably high under the early harvest projects
during the first phase of CPEC. Can this experience be repeated?
Likewise, in some important projects, the federal and provincial
governments successfully set up Special Purpose Vehicles or
SPVs, instead of struggling with existing institutions. Also, in
some recent instances, the planning boards in various provinces
have effectively delivered larger projects through Special
Projects Units or SPUs.
The biggest risk to our infrastructure, however, comes from
archaic building guidelines, standards and associated laws, and
procurement rules and procedures. Had Pakistan aligned her
construction standards with internationally accepted standards,
we would have saved ourselves a very high percentage of the
infrastructural losses. The country desperately needs to upgrade
its construction standards, materials, technologies, and app­
r­
oval
processes — and this needs to be fast-tracked by creating more
operational and policy space for the private sector to lead in
infrastructural development.
Finally, while we will need to address several practical questions
relating to implementation capacity at the federal and provincial
levels, undertaking two fundamental reforms will test our
national resolve and commitment:
First, we need to remember that climate vulnerability is
fundamentally a local issue, and without strengthening the
coping capacity of local communities no amount of top-down
investments can succeed. Fortunately, there is a growing
realisation that local governments need to be operationalised,
resourced and empowered for locally-led development. A
specially constituted taskforce can recommend how the National
Finance Commission Award can be restructured to have
provincial- and district-level financial awards.
Second, none of Pakistan’s project planning, procurement,
project delivery and project closure documents are climate-
proofed. They do not capture our climate risks and
vulnerabilities nor measures towards adaptation and mitigation
and their co-benefits for economic development, job creation,
productivity or inclusion of youth, women for equity and
inclusion. They have not really changed since being introduced
decades ago by Dr Mahbub ul Haq or cosmetically revised in
2005. Reconstruction and rehabilitation cannot be resilient
without revising them. Countries do not fail, but institutions do if
they do not evolve and change. Let’s not allow stagnation to set
in.
The writer is an expert on climate change and development.
Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023

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Dawn Editorials and Opinions 12 Jan (DM whatsapp group 03124191070) .pdf

  • 1. January 12, 2023 Our children - Newspaper - DAWN.COM dawn.com/news/1731212/our-children MUCH has been made of the billions of dollars in donor pledges recently secured by our government during the International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan held in Geneva. It is regrettable, however, that compared to the attention the event received, there seems to be very little concern for the people it was actually held for. Consider, for example, a recent news report citing a United Nations Children’s Fund warning that up to 4m children are still living in great peril next to contaminated and stagnant floodwater that, months later, refuses to drain out from some of the districts that were worst-affected by last year’s terrible monsoon. Unicef also says that the incidence of acute respiratory infections has skyrocketed in the flood-stricken areas, while the number of children identified as suffering from severe, acute malnutrition has nearly doubled between July and December as compared to 2021. Unicef estimates that about 1.5m children are in need of life-saving nutrition interventions. Unicef’s country representative believes that “Nearly 10m girls and boys are still in need of immediate, life-saving support and are heading into a bitter winter without adequate shelter. Severe acute malnutrition, respiratory and waterborne diseases, coupled with the cold, are putting millions of young lives at risk”. These are our own children that are being talked about. We should not wait for international donors to make good on their pledges to take action for their welfare. With cold waves forecast for many flood-affected regions in the coming days, steps should be taken on an emergency basis to protect at-risk children from at least the worst of the weather. Unicef needs about $110m
  • 2. dollars more to ensure life-saving support to women and children affected by the fl oods. The country should fi nd that money on a priority basis. Nothing can be more important than ensuring that our youngest are at least protected from illness and hunger after they have had their lives uprooted. Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023 Opinion DM Editorials Whatsapp Group for CSS /PMS Rozana Dawn Editorial video, Dawn Highlights, Intl magazines, pdfs kay liye hamara DM paid whatsapp group join karain, charges 200rs easypaisa / month to 03124191070 or Jazzcash 200rs /month to 03064368023 and share screenshot. Account Title : Danish Maqsood
  • 3. January 12, 2023 Irresponsible words dawn.com/news/1731213/irresponsible-words ISHAQ Dar’s clarification that the government doesn’t plan to seize foreign currency stocks held with the commercial banks should put paid to widespread speculations that he ever intended to ‘freeze’ private citizens’ dollar accounts as he had done in the wake of US sanctions following Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998. The finance minister’s remarks came days after his statement that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $10bn — a much higher number than the central bank’s reserves of $4.5bn — as ‘dollars held by the banks also belonged to the country’. That had fuelled rumours that the declining SBP forex reserves may force the government to confiscate private foreign currency accounts to avert a default. He assured the public that nothing of the sort would happen. Elaborating, he rightly said it was a practice to include in the national foreign exchange reserves the foreign exchange held both with the central banks and the commercial banks, and give a breakdown. Speaking at a press conference alongside the prime minister, Mr Dar said his statement was ‘twisted by those who had destroyed the country’s economy in the last four years’. There is every possibility of the opposition giving his remarks a spin that would undermine the government. But the nation’s growing dollar crunch and disappearance of foreign currency from the market has led many to empty their accounts in the recent weeks. That the minister’s irresponsible statement was enough to fuel panic even without the opposition twisting his words cannot be ignored, especially considering his track record. The freezing of the private foreign currency accounts during his first tenure as
  • 4. finance minister was a blunder that left public confidence severely shaken. Even if he doesn’t plan to freeze private dollar accounts, Mr Dar’s obsession with a strong rupee and management of the exchange rate at the cost of the country’s IMF programme is exacting a steep price. When he said at the presser that the next tranche from the IMF has been delayed due to the differences over revenue collection, it was but a half-truth. His management of the foreign exchange market that has created a wide gap between the interbank and open market dollar rates is an even bigger issue. It is time Mr Dar learnt to unlearn what he has believed until now. And he should stop making irresponsible public statements. Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023 Opinion
  • 5. January 12, 2023 Wheeling & dealing - Newspaper dawn.com/news/1731214/wheeling-dealing WHENEVER general elections draw close, the nation’s ‘electables’ and ‘influentials’ begin a frantic search for political platforms which they can attach themselves to, to ensure they get a share of power. And often the invisible hands that play an oversized role in managing Pakistan’s politics are at work ‘guiding’ these political nomads towards what are likely to be winning tickets. Though no schedule for the polls has been announced, these activities have begun in Balochistan, as well as in Karachi and south Punjab, as electables size up their prospects, and the establishment continues its efforts to mould outcomes. In Balochistan, an unlikely candidate in the shape of former chief minister Aslam Raisani recently joined the JUI-F, even though the Baloch sardar has little in common with the ideology of Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s party. Earlier, other Baloch notables also joined the JUI-F. Meanwhile, a number of provincial lawmakers of BAP, which runs Balochistan, have jumped ship and joined the PPP under Asif Zardari’s watchful eye. BAP itself is believed to be an artificial construct, created in 2018 by the powers that be to rule Balochistan. Over in Karachi, efforts continue under the Sindh governor’s tutelage to unite the different factions of the MQM, namely Bahadurabad, PSP and the Farooq Sattar group, though the pro-Altaf London faction is likely to be left out of this formula. The wheeling and dealing in Karachi is also believed to have the blessings of the gentlemen in Rawalpindi. In south Punjab, electables are reportedly waiting for a signal from higher powers to make their move.
  • 6. The fact that political engineering continues was highlighted recently by Imran Khan, when the PTI leader made specific mention of the BAP and MQM developments. It appears that promises made by the former army chief to withdraw the military from politics have not been fulfilled. To assume that the establishment would totally withdraw from the political game it has dominated for decades was naïve, but there should at least be some effort to disengage and let civilian politicians sort out matters. Yet it is also sadly true that many politicians themselves are to blame for looking to GHQ for ‘guidance.’ In Balochistan’s case, the establishment’s involvement has retarded political evolution in the province, adding to the people’s alienation with the state. The electables that are herded together to run Balochistan have repeatedly failed to solve the province’s myriad problems, leaving the common voter disillusioned with the system. Only by allowing the organic growth of the political system in Balochistan can stability come to this troubled province, and the healing process begin in earnest. This also rings true for Karachi and the rest of Pakistan. Instead of manufacturing alliances, let all stakeholders — primarily the political class and the military — work to strengthen grassroots democracy. Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
  • 8. January 12, 2023 Truly unlucky - Newspaper - DAWN.COM dawn.com/news/1731215/truly-unlucky THERE is a growing recognition amongst economists and political scientists that in many developing countries, an externally guided development effort has not been as effective as hoped. The fact is, the primary onus for prosperity is on the country itself. Development cannot be imposed with a prescription from outside. Pakistan is truly unlucky not to have come to terms with this notion. Our story is one of gradual deterioration of state capability. This has coincided with an increase in policy complexity and uncertainty. Tackling these challenges requires a certain level of professional expertise which is beyond the prowess of a generalist bureaucracy. Pakistan has increased its reliance on growing availability of external expertise to complement the
  • 9. administrative set-up. Independent think tanks, non-profit organisations, consultancy firms, multilateral and bilateral partners have carved their own niche in federal and provincial policy work. Policy in Pakistan is frequently guided by external counsel as evident in programme loans prescribing good governance and project loans advocating changes to rail, road and energy infrastructure. The country leans on outside resources to give credence to documents like the recent flood assessment or while drafting its laws to meet global standards. Technical assistance and capacity building missions have been frequent. Their focus has been to support prestigious organisations like SBP, FBR, etc. The strategy of outsourcing research and policy work — as though it would solve our perennial issues — has been misplaced. Numerous tax reform projects have had a marginal impact at best. Pakistan is unable to devise proper capital gains or inter-generational wealth transfer mechanisms. Our worst failing is to willfully keep the retail and agriculture sectors out of the direct tax net. Overall, the tax-to-GDP ratio for FY22 clocked in at an abysmal 10.2 per cent. Our performance has stayed constant around this unsatisfactory level since decades. A tax-to- GDP ratio of 15pc is considered the minimum threshold for governments to provide basic goods and services to their citizens and meet the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. We have placed too much reliance on external expertise. Success, if any, has been viewed narrowly as achieving near-term programmed goals, rather than a meaningful structural change in the economy. Our inability to undertake much-needed surgery to treat underlying issues brings us to the IMF’s door every few
  • 10. years — the current predicament being a case in point. Reeling under double-digit inflation, dwindling foreign currency reserves and a weakening rupee, this desperate nation is looking at reviving the stalled IMF programme as the only hope of seeing FY23 through without a default. The premise that technical input is de rigueur is hard to disagree with. However, that does not absolve a country of its own responsibility to build in-house professional competence in key areas like finance, revenue, energy, privatisation and investment, among others. Pakistan has been unable to achieve this. As countries outsource more of their functions in the name of specialist input, it leads to a fatal worsening of their governance structures. Such nations lose impetus to upskill their bureaucracy or add local expertise. This seems to have played out in Pakistan. Resultan­ t­ ­ ly, waning capability and a low absorption capacity have be­ ­ come core reasons for poor governance at all tiers in the country. Decision-makers have had a lazy obsession with ‘ideological necrophilia’. Venezuelan journalist and writer Moisés Naím coined this term for ideas that have been tried but found wanting. Del­ e­ gating policy work is one such idea. Good policy is about good human resource. Pakistan needs to roll out a new ‘capability playbook’, setting out a structure to complement administrative bureaucracy with the right professionals. Some ideas to build expertise include allowing intake at all tiers of bureaucracy, specialised training of civil servants and incentivised pay structures.
  • 11. The idea of capability building — policymaking in the 21st century — must lead us to wider engagement with multidisciplinary expertise within the country. The government can nurture linkages with universities to encourage research as a source for decision-making. Policymakers’ liaising with the private sector can go beyond petty discussions on subsidy and distortionary utility pricing. Involvement of such expertise can have a snowball effect to influence key structural issues. We must not lose faith in our own capability. This is the only narrative Pakistan shou­ ­ ld be building, honouring and practicing. The writer is a former adviser to the finance ministry. khaqanhnajeeb@gmail.com Twitter: @KhaqanNajeeb Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
  • 12. January 12, 2023 Back to begging - Newspaper dawn.com/news/1731216/back-to-begging RETURNING from Karachi to Lahore this week was like sliding down a thermometer from cool to freezing. One had forgotten how delicious the enervating sunshine of Karachi could be, or how within a fortnight Lahore could descend into a misty, bone- chilling Antarctica. The Superhighway connecting Karachi and Hyderabad remained underutilised after it opened in the 1970s. Soon, overladen trucks discovered its utility. After that, the heavy traffic resulted in deep ruts in the road, like those caused by chariot wheels in ancient Pompeii. Today, its surface is again serviceable.
  • 13. En route to Hyderabad, if you want a vis­ ion of the future, take the turning into Bah­ ria Town 1. You cannot miss it. It is mar­ ked by an empty, idol-less temple whose sandy columns copy those of Luxor in Egypt. Bahria Town, like Islamabad, is not designed for pedestrians. Well-maintained avenues sweep through caverns of innumerable flats, some complete and others under construction, all speaking of quality. One hill is crowned by the sprawling private villa of Bahria Town’s prime mover — Malik Riaz. Its green lawns cascade down the hillside. On the crest of the second pro­ montory is the majestic white mosque which, when complete, will rival the Bad­ shahi mosque in Lahore, without its history. Nothing remains beyond the third generation. From Hyderabad, the route to Sehwan passes along the spine of Pakistan’s agronomy. Some fields are still inundated with floodwater, their hapless tillers sheltering under makeshift tents, waiting for a hollow future. Sehwan still retains its sanctity — if you can find it. In 1846, Lt William Edwards wrote of it: ‘In its environs are many fine mosques and tombs, and within the city is a remarkably splendid masjid, built in honour of the celebrated Muslim saint, Lal Shahbaz.’ Considering it was a Thursday, the gold-domed shrine had fewer devotees within its precincts than the beggars cadging for a living outside. Here, belief is forced to ignore hygiene. Previous travellers had spoken of the hazards along the Sehwan- Sukkur route. It proved remarkably clear and comfortable. Date palm orchards gradually gave way to sugar cane plantations that
  • 14. feed sugar mills which in turn feed the Zardari family. One does not stay in Sukkur for its nightlife. It has neons but no entertainment. One stays overnight out of necessity. If you find the right room in a hotel on Military Road, you are insulated from the noise of a constant convoy of traffic, day and night. From on high, they seem like a column of dusty ants, moving in both directions, intent only on avoiding collision. Crossing the mighty Indus is a humbling experience, for here is the river that irrigated a civilisation and gave India its name. One could have continued to Lahore, had one not been tempted to stop in Multan to see the enviable library of a local notable. His lineage extends into the mists of history, and proudly he shows the pedigree compiled by his forefathers and which he has genderised by including the names of the females in his expansive family. His collection of manuscripts and modern first editions, and a stable containing carriages in which his ancestors travelled, deserves a public building. The land he and his relations inherited in Multan has been dissected among generations of claimants and in time by their children. As an American billionaire once observed, nothing remains beyond the third generation. One would have preferred returning to Lahore by the Motorway, had the unwelcome fog not intervened. The longer route along the N5 is a painful journey, made uncomfortably tense by the undisciplined traffic that, following the example of our political leaders, recognises no rules. Sauve qui peut (every man for himself) is the credo. The endless stream of traffic spewing
  • 15. exhaust fumes became so crowded that one longed for a break in which to breathe fresh air. We already have bottled water; when will we market tinned air? Lahore’s political atmosphere is anything but chilly. It is incendiary. Sparks fly within the PTI-PML-Q alliance as PTI chief Imran Khan and his partner CM Punjab Chaudhry Parvez Elahi clash for authority. Imran Khan is still smarting from the lash of the no-confidence motion that removed him from power in April 2022. Parvez Elahi has been out of power too long to relinquish it on his partner’s say-so. While they squabble like two bald men over a toothless comb, the country suffers gas shortages, cap-less price increases and foreign exchange famine. What could be more demeaning for a nation that has arable land and the Indus than to import its wheat from war-torn Ukraine? It is reported that the new COAS General Asim Munir has made a week-long trip to Saudi Arabia. He has been received with the same condescending cordiality as his predecessors. Will that include monetary largesse? The writer is an author. www.fsaijazuddin.pk Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
  • 16. January 12, 2023 The fast-track solar paradox dawn.com/news/1731222/the-fast-track-solar-paradox THREE months ago, in a major attempt to generate affordable electricity, the new government unveiled its policy for fast-track development of solar photovoltaics (PV) projects at an investors’ conference with strong incentives including exemption on all import duties and taxes and a 70 per cent dollarised indexation on tariff. The government also promised provision of land, interconnection and mandatory purchase of all power produced for 25 years. While the fast-track procurement of 10,000 MW of solar PV is an ambitious initiative with regards to substituting fossil fuel-generated electricity, the approach has a number of major problems. First and foremost, the fast-track policy to procure renewables violates the primacy of the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan which is the power sector’s central national planning document, akin to its constitution. The IGCEP is prepared by the National Transmission and Despatch Company on a yearly basis to plan all power capacity additions to the national grid for the next 10 years. It selects projects based on a rigorous data modelling and least cost optimisation exercise through the state-of-the-art generation planning software, PLEXOS. In its latest version, the IGCEP 2022-31, almost 18GW of wind and solar PV have been optimised for addition to the grid by 2031, of which nearly 66pc is solar PV. This massive renewable energy (RE) capacity is to be procured through annual competitive bidding or auctions, as specified by the Alternative & Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019. While developers and investors have been waiting for these auctions for more than
  • 17. four years now, none have taken place so far. Rather than addressing this delay and participating through IGCEP, the government’s fast-track policy has created an entirely new category for RE projects, seeking a way around the national planning process. Introduction of such fast-track initiatives by the federal government to ensure timely addition of affordable RE into the national electricity grid is clear evidence that the power sector institutions have failed to deliver on their mandate. Auctions for cheap RE continue to be delayed while dollar-bought expensive fossil fuels continue to burn. RE costs today have fallen well below Rs10 per unit while some of the more expensive thermal plants continue to cost more than four to five times that amount. Moreover, even these exorbitant tariffs do not reflect the true cost of fossil fuels which includes capacity payments, paid regardless of power off-take, costing the nation Rs721 billion in FY 2021-22 alone. In the oft-repeated words of chairman, Nepra, we are literally burning dollars to generate electricity for the consumer. Yet the continuous delay in RE auctions continues to cost the nation dearly and the fast-track mindset, seeking to circumvent this institutional impairment, only endorses the laziness of institutions and the status quo. Attempts to procure massive amounts of renewable energy all at once is more indicative of an anxious mindset than timely planning. The biggest problem with the fast-track approach is perhaps its impact on investors. It is ironic that the government chose to unveil this so-called panacea for the power sector crisis at an investors’ conference, yet forgot the category III investors whose projects have been waiting for competitive bidding by the relevant agencies for four years now despite directions by the
  • 18. Cabinet Committee on Energy to conduct auctions. Some of the category III projects had even been approved and awarded tariff, the lowest in the country’s history, but were deferred by the power division to instead participate through auctions in accordance with the ARE policy which had recently been drafted. Yet auctions never took place and when they finally did in the form of the fast-track initiative, these investors were ignored altogether. Investor confidence is a delicate matter and once shaken, takes years to recover. The fast-track mindset only adds to this distrust and market volatility. Global auction experience has also shown that massive amounts of RE are best procured in distributed chunks steadily over several years as lessons are incorporated from subsequent auction rounds and the trust of local market is gained through reliable signalling. Attempts to procure massive amounts of RE all at once are more indicative of an anxious mindset than timely and reliable planning and, instead of fostering the larger ecosystem of investors and developers, sets the market back by decades. The result is a continuation of boom and bust cycles of energy procurement which stall the development of domestic markets and keep the sector dependent on a few large corporations and foreign supply chains. It is also sad that the fast-track solar PV policy is being publicised under the name of promoting indigenous energy sources, whereas the truth is that with a 70pc dollarised indexation of tariff the Pakistani citizen will be forced to buy the nation’s own indigenous sources of energy as a ‘dollar indexed import’. Our massive dollar dependency and debt burden will continue to grow for decades to come unless we start prioritising local markets, supply chains and investment.
  • 19. At the same time this fast-track initiative is fraught with internal contradictions. The power sector’s own CTBCM initiative foresees a fully liberal and competitive market with flexible bilateral contracts between buyers and sellers within a few years, whereas the fast-track initiative offers 25-year energy purchase agreements with guarantees of mandatory off-take. We are still paying penalties for similar long-term contracts with thermal IPPs in the past and it is time we learnt a lesson. While the IGCEP may have its own deficiencies, it cannot be sidestepped. Investor confidence and market perception cannot be ignored. Far more than quick additions to electricity capacity, Pakistan’s national electricity policy envisions a developed market, active participation of the private sector, local value creation and socioeconomic advancement. Both the government and the power sector must recognise this vision, learn from their past mistakes and prioritise consistent policies if they wish to find a permanent way out of this electricity crisis and towards a stable economy. The writer is an energy specialist at Renewables First, a Pakistan- based energy think tank. Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023
  • 20. January 12, 2023 Spending $10 billion dawn.com/news/1731230/spending-10-billion THE world’s first donor conference in Geneva, convened specifically to support the victims of climate-induced disaster, has pledged more than $10 billion for Pakistan. This offers Pakistan a rare opportunity to shed its image of a passive recipient of climate disasters. Instead of being a victim only, the country can now undertake a series of well-deliberated, long- term measures for strengthening the resilience of its people and infrastructure. The strategic vision shared by the Pakistani leadership with the international community at the conference was that Pakistan will pursue social inclusion and participation as a strategic objective. How can Pakistan honour this commitment, or spend the $10bn put on the table? This is as good
  • 21. a time as any to initiate reforms to reduce climate vulnerability, consolidate these partnerships, and build back stronger and faster. Resilient development is not possible without institutional reforms. The urgency is staring us in the face with a current price tag of eight per cent GDP loss and projected GDP shrinking 20pc by 2050. In fact, resilience, reforms and economic development have become intrinsically linked. Pakistan’s existing political and economic systems breed climate vulnerability, made worse by food and water insecurity, degraded land and polluted air. The proposition is relatively straightforward: higher degree of preparedness can help us avoid public and private losses from climate-induced disasters. Resources saved can be invested on climate-smart development. But no matter how important, reforms are always driven by local politics. They are particularly hard to undertake in a traditional society. Provinces and regions in our federal system are governed by different political parties who jealously guard their autonomy. Pursuing a reform agenda is particularly challenging in the present political context where consensus-building in a coalition government can be risky and time-consuming. The first order of business is to build political consensus that reforms for climate security are essential and cannot be postponed any longer. Fortunately, most of the essential institutional, legal and economic reforms are part of the unfinished agenda of the 18th Amendment that enjoys national consensus, except for occasional dissension by some interest groups. Not all international pledges will be delivered this month or during this fiscal year, even if many are recounted, recycled and repurposed existing commitments. Yet, Pakistan is notorious for
  • 22. delayed implementation of its public sector projects. Unfinished projects have accumulated over time to an unbelievable number — more than 1,200 projects worth Rs1.6 trillion. Top-down investments cannot succeed without strengthening the coping capacity of local communities. This is many times higher than the size of the annual Public Sector Development Programme. Given the long list of already approved projects by PSDP, the Planning Commission and ECNEC and their provincial counterparts can obligate the pledged amounts in a matter of weeks, if not days. But then, like hundreds of earlier projects, these will not be finished in a timely manner, efficiently and impactfully. Inordinate delays in implementation not only mean cost overruns, but delays also obstruct accountability and cast shadows on transparency. The project delivery system is already stretched to the seams. Going forward, it is imperative for us to take a fresh look at how best we can spend development funds. The risk is that unspent funds will be repurposed yet again, as has become frequent practice in the country in recent years. The underspend of allocated budgets is, more often than not, a sign of mismanagement and incompetence. Public sector projects often have over-allocation to give headroom to senior officials and project managers for other urgencies. This is the right time for Pakistan to learn from two recent experiences. First, after the 2005 earthquake, a similar Conference on Rehabilita­ tion and Reconstruction of the areas affected resulted in pledges of $3.5bn. Likewise, a meeting of Friends of Pakistan co-convened in 2008 by the World Bank and Japan, resulted in commitments of $5.8bn for development and
  • 23. counterterrorism. In both cases, Pakistan could not fully avail the pledges, and there is still no report on the reasons why such opportunities were allowed to slip by. Some operational lessons from recent experiences in different provinces under various projects can guide us. The delivery speed was appreciably high under the early harvest projects during the first phase of CPEC. Can this experience be repeated? Likewise, in some important projects, the federal and provincial governments successfully set up Special Purpose Vehicles or SPVs, instead of struggling with existing institutions. Also, in some recent instances, the planning boards in various provinces have effectively delivered larger projects through Special Projects Units or SPUs. The biggest risk to our infrastructure, however, comes from archaic building guidelines, standards and associated laws, and procurement rules and procedures. Had Pakistan aligned her construction standards with internationally accepted standards, we would have saved ourselves a very high percentage of the infrastructural losses. The country desperately needs to upgrade its construction standards, materials, technologies, and app­ r­ oval processes — and this needs to be fast-tracked by creating more operational and policy space for the private sector to lead in infrastructural development. Finally, while we will need to address several practical questions relating to implementation capacity at the federal and provincial levels, undertaking two fundamental reforms will test our national resolve and commitment:
  • 24. First, we need to remember that climate vulnerability is fundamentally a local issue, and without strengthening the coping capacity of local communities no amount of top-down investments can succeed. Fortunately, there is a growing realisation that local governments need to be operationalised, resourced and empowered for locally-led development. A specially constituted taskforce can recommend how the National Finance Commission Award can be restructured to have provincial- and district-level financial awards. Second, none of Pakistan’s project planning, procurement, project delivery and project closure documents are climate- proofed. They do not capture our climate risks and vulnerabilities nor measures towards adaptation and mitigation and their co-benefits for economic development, job creation, productivity or inclusion of youth, women for equity and inclusion. They have not really changed since being introduced decades ago by Dr Mahbub ul Haq or cosmetically revised in 2005. Reconstruction and rehabilitation cannot be resilient without revising them. Countries do not fail, but institutions do if they do not evolve and change. Let’s not allow stagnation to set in. The writer is an expert on climate change and development. Published in Dawn, January 12th, 2023