The Many Ways Changing Climate Can Change Coastal Ecology Scott W. Nixon, Robinson W. Fulweiler, Lindsey Fields, Betty A. Buckley, Stephen L. Granger, Barbara L. Nowicki, Kelly M. Henry The impact of changing climate on phenology, productivity, and benthic- pelagic coupling in Narragansett Bay.

1. The Many Ways Changing Climate
Can Change Coastal Ecology
Scott W. Nixon, Robinson W. Fulweiler, Lindsey Fields, Betty A.
Buckley, Stephen L. Granger, Barbara L. Nowicki, Kelly M. Henry

2. The impact of changing
climate on phenology,
productivity, and benthic-
pelagic coupling in
Narragansett Bay. 2009.
Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf
Science 82:1-18.

3. PHENOLOGY (NOUN) −
The science of the relations between climate
and periodic biological phenomena…
(Webster)
see:
European Phenology Network
and:
Phenology, an Integrative Environmental Science,
M. D. Schwartz, 2003, Kluwer, pp.564

4. NARRAGANSETT BAY

5. Mean Winter (D,J,F) Surface Water Temperature
in Mid-Narragansett Bay
6
y = 0.05x - 88.5
5 R2=0.29
Temperature,ºC
4
3
2
1
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
YEAR

6. THE WINTER-SPRING BLOOM
It has long been known that on both the
European and American coasts the most luxuriant
diatom growth does not take place in the warmest
months … throughout the shallow waters south of
Cape Cod a rich winter diatom plankton starts
usually in November and continues until March,
reaching a maximum in December.
C. J. Fish (1925)

7. “The outstanding feature of the annual cycle is the
winter-spring diatom flowering, which is extraordinary
in its time of inception, intensity, and duration.
Logarithmic growth begins usually in December, and
after about a month terminates in a maximum sometimes
exceeding 50,000 cells/ml; this is followed by a series
of secondary peaks of diminishing amplitude, and the
flowering period ends in late May or June. (p.173)”
- Pratt (1965)

8. TIME OF MAXIMUM BLOOM DEVELOPMENT
Year
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Dec
Feb
Month
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct

9. 14 50
1960 1999
10
30
6
2 10
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Cells, 106 L-1
16 1961 20
2001
12
12
8
4 4
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
40 30
1962 2005
30 20
20
10
10
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Date

10. CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BENTHOS
Numerous studies have documented that
during a relatively brief period the spring
phytoplankton bloom in temperate…regions can
deliver as much as half of the total annual input of
organic carbon to the benthos…Earlier blooms may
occur in colder water, which would reduce
consumption by pelagic heterotrophs and result in
the input of a greater proportion of planktonic
production to the bottom sediments…
Townsend and Cammen (1988)

11. Cell Counts at St. 2 as above
(1959-1980 from Karentz and Smayda 1998; 1999-2011 from GSO
Plankton Monitoring)
16
14
12 J,F,M Mean
10 Annual Mean
8
6
4
2
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year

12. Chlorophyll in the Mid West Passage
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
YEAR

13. Winter-Spring (Dec-March) Bloom in the Mid West
Passage
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
YEAR

14. *OLIGOTROPHICATION (noun) –
a decrease in the rate of supply of organic
matter to an ecosystem.
*Nixon, S.W. Hydrobiologia In press

15. Benthic Remineralization as a Function of Primary
Production and Organic Input
400
Benthic Remineralization, g C m-2 y-1
350
300
y = 0.24x + 15
250 R2=0.94
Narragansett Bay 1975
200
150
100
50
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Primary Production + Organic Input, g C m-2 y-1
Figure modified from Nixon 1981

17. Jamestown Ammonium Flux at the Sediment-Water interface as a
Function of Bottom Water Temperature
300 1971-1985
2005-2006
250
NH4+, μmol m-2 h-1
200
150
100
50
0
5 10 15 20 25
-50
Temperature, º C
Fulweiler and Nixon Hydrobiologia in press

18. Jamestown DIP Flux at the Sediment-Water interface as a
Function of Bottom Water Temperature
60
1971-85
50
2005-2006
DIP, μmol m-2 h-1
40
30
20
10
0
5 10 15 20 25
-10
Temperature, º C
Fulweiler and Nixon Hydrobiologia in press

20. N2 Flux in mid-Narragansett Bay
125
100
N2-N (μmol m-2 h-1)
75
50
25
0
1979 1986 2005
-100
-200
2006
-300
From Fulweiler et al. (2007) Nature 448: 180-182.

21. Estimated Mean Live Biomass (excluding shell) of Demersal Epibenthic
Animals in Mid-Narragansett Bay
40
Winter
y = -0.451x + 906.38
Biomass, kg tow -1 30 R2=0.38
20
10
0
1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Year
100
Summer
-1
Biomass, kg tow
80
60
40
20
0
1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Year

22. Mean Annual wet weight biomass for 26 Stations
in Narragansett Bay
10000
8000
6000
Kg y-1
4000
2000
0
`80-84 `87-91 `95-99 `80-84 `87-91 `95-99 `80-84 `87-91 `95-99
Pelagic Demersal Total
Data from Oviatt (2004)

24. Winter Flounder down 90%
Windowpane Flounder down 89%
Northern Sea Robin down 88%
Sea Raven down 99%
Red Hake down 91%
Major pelagics are more southern species, including
bay anchovy, butterfish, alewife, scup, and long finned squid.
http://www.gma.org/fogm/images/striped_sea_robin.gif

26. What’s causing these changes?

27. ANNUAL DISSOLVED INORGANIC NITROGEN DISCHARGE FROM THE
THREE MAJOR UPPER BAY SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANTS, 1992-2003
140
MILLIONS OF MOLES PER YEAR
120
TOTAL
100
80
FIELD'S PT
60
BUCKLIN PT
40
20
E. PROV.
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
YEAR

28. Nitrogen Input to Narragansett Bay
1865-2004
700
600
N Input, 106 moles y -1
500
400
300
200
100
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Nixon et al. (2008) Year

29. Mean Winter (D,J,F) Surface Water Temperature
in Mid-Narragansett Bay
6
y = 0.05x - 88.5
5 R2=0.29
Temperature,ºC
4
3
2
1
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
YEAR

30. MEAN ANNUAL WIND SPEED AT GREEN AIRPORT
From Pilson (2008)
19
18
Mean Speed, km h-1
17
16
15
14
13
12
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
YEAR

31. Mean Jan-Feb. Irradiance Year
120
y = -0.6558x + 1388.1
R2=0.43
Irradiance, W m-2
p<0.0001
100
80
60
40
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year

33. *Mean annual and summer (J,J,A) chlorophyll and primary
production (14C uptake) in Narragansett Bay
*data from Oviatt et al. 2002
50 2
West Passage
40
Chl a, mg m-3
1.5
PP, g m-2 d-1
30
1
20
0.5
10
0 0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Distance above (-) or below Conimicut Pt., km
Annual Mean Chl Summer Mean Chl Phytoplankton Production

34. *Mean annual vertical light attenuation coefficient (1997/98)*
*data from Oviatt et al. 2002
1.0
West Passage
0.8 East Passage
-k m-1
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Distance above (-) or below Conimicut Pt., km

35. Inputs of Carbon to Narragansett Bay
DOC POC Total % of Total
Inputs
Rivers and Streams 1140 375 1815 15
Sewage Treatment Plants 190 140 330 3
Primary Production ? 9600 9600 82
Total C 11745
From Nixon et al. 1995

36. Jamestown Si Flux at the Sediment-Water interface as a
Function of Bottom Water Temperature
1000
Si, μmol m-2 h-1
600
200
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-200
Temperature, º C

37. “Denitrification represents a major sink for fixed N in
the bay; annually the N2 production is equal to about
50% of the fixed N loading to the bay from rivers,
land, and sewage. (p. 73)”
(Seitzinger et al., 1984)

38. Surface Water Nutrient Concentrations in
mid-Narragansett Bay (2006)
25 2.0
DIP
20 1.6
DIN, µM
DIP , µM
DIN
15 1.2
10 0.8
5 0.4
0 0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D

39. WATER AND SEWAGE IN PROVIDENCE, 1877-2003
350
AVERAGE DAILY FLOW,
300
thousands of cubic meters
250
SEWAGE
200
150
100
50 WATER
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
YEAR

40. But what Martin (1966) actually concluded was,
“Grazing severely limited the standing crop of this
diatom [Skeletonema] when primary production was
stopped or slowed by inadequate light intensities
and/or nutrient excretion…In general it may be said
that zooplankton grazing would never arrest the
production of a species capable of rapid division such
as Skeletonema, if light intensities and nutrient
concentrations were not limiting since zooplankton
growth, which is dependent on phytoplankton
production, would necessarily lag behind. (p. 67)”

41. Winter-Spring (Jan.-Apr.) Irradiance vs. mid-Narragansett Bay
Surface Water Temperature (1960-2006)
120
Irradiance, W m-2
80
40
0
1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5
Temperature, ◦C
Irradiance from Eppley Laboratory, Newport, Rhode Island.

42. Nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to Narragansett Bay in the 1980’s and in the late
1990’s-early 2000’s from smaller sewage treatment plants that discharge directly
into the bay below Conimicut Point. Units are millions of moles per year.
Total N Total P
1985-86* 2001-03 1986-86* 2001-03
a
Jamestown 0.2 0.3 0.06 0.09
Quonset 1.0 0.9 0.09
b
East Greenwich 2.1 1.0 0.52 0.54
a
Warren 2.4 2.4 0.16 0.05
Bristol 5.3 6.5 0.33 0.18
TOTAL 11.0 11.1 1.16 0.86
_______________________________________________________________________
_
* a b
From et. al. (1995) 1996, 2000

43. Frithsen (1989) on Food Limitation...
“The evidence … is largely circumstantial, somewhat
compelling, but certainly not solid (p.37)”.

44. Borkman’s detailed study (2002) concluded that,
“Winter-spring Skeletonema bloom duration declined
from ca. six weeks in 1959-63 to three weeks in 1978-82
while first quarter abundance declined from 6000 cells
ml-1 (1959-63) to ca. 1200 cells ml-1 (1991-96).
http://www.ambra.unibo.it/baiona/img/skeletonema.jpg

45. “…the seasonal cycle in new and regenerated production in the
pelagic system is of vital importance to the benthos both in terms
of quantity and quality of the food supply.( p.533) ”
Smetacek (1984)
http://omp.gso.uri.edu/doee/science/biology/b4d.htm

46. “The particles sinking out of such [regenerating]
systems are truly wastes, i.e. they are composed
of refractory material with low essential
element content. p. 533”
Smetacek (1984)

47. Nitrogen Input to Narragansett Bay
1865-2004
700
600
N Input, 106 moles y -1
500
400
300
200
100
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Nixon et al. In Press Year

48. *Mean Annual and Summer Chlorophyll in Mid-Narragansett Bay
*data from Smayda and GSO phytoplankton monitoring
20 Annual
Summer
Chl a, mg m-3
16
12
8
4
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year

49. Cumulative volume of water (MLW) in Narragansett Bay
3000
Volume, 106 m-3
Total
2000 East Passage
West Passage
1000
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Distance below Fox Pt., km

50. *Vertical Light Attenuation as a function of Mean Surface
and Bottom Water Temperature in Mid-Narragansett Bay
*data from Oviatt et al. 2002.
0.8
0.6
-k m-1
0.4
y = 0.112Ln(x) + 0.37
0.2 R2=0.61
0.0
0 4 8 12 16
Chl a, mg m-3

52. Mean annual and summer (J,J,A) chlorophyll and *primary
production (14C uptake) in Narragansett Bay
*primary production data from Oviatt et al. 2002
50 2
East
40
Passage 1.5
Chl a, mg m-3
PP, g m-2 d-1
30
1
20
0.5
10
0 0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Distance above (-) or below Conimicut Pt., km
Annual Mean Chl Summer Mean Chl Phytoplankton Production

53. Proportional Abundance by Species Group
1.0
Squid
Proportional catch by species group
Pelagic fish
0.8
Benthic invertebrates
Demersal fish
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Year

54. Fox Point
Conimicut Point
East Passage
West Passage

55. OPEN WATER SURFACE AREA OF SOME IMPORTANT
ESTUARIES IN THE UNITED STATES, km2
Waquoit Bay, MA 8
Barnegat Bay, NJ 102
Great South Bay, NY 235
Narragansett Bay, RI 328
New York Bay 390
Indian River Lagoon, FL 725
Mobile Bay 1152
San Francisco Bay 1173
Potomac Estuary, MD 1279
Delaware Bay 1989
Puget Sound 2330
Long Island Sound 3200
Chesapeake Bay 11500
Pamlico Sound 27092

56. RATIO OF WETLANDS AREA TO OPEN WATER
AREA IN SOME US ESTUARIES
Narragansett Bay 0.02
Long Island Sound 0.05
Tampa Bay 0.06
http://www.delawareestuary.org/images/SciencePix/TFW_4_dk.JPG
Mobile Bay 0.08
Chesapeake Bay 0.11
Apalachicola Bay 0.12
Chincoteague Bay 0.31
Delaware Bay 0.38
Aransas Bay 0.39
San Francisco Bay 0.42
Barataria Bay 1.43
Inshore Georgia 1.90

57. DELAWARE BAY

58. Boston
New York City

59. 14
1960
10
6
2
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16
Cells, 106 L-1
1961
12
8
4
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
40
1962
30
Note scale change 20
10
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Data from D. Pratt and T.J. Smayda Date

60. NARRAGANSETT BAY

61. Annual chlorophyll levels in mid-Narragansett Bay, R.I. 1973-2006
16
=
8
Chl a, mg m-3
y = 1E+23e-.026x
6 R2=0.61
p<0.0001
4
2
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Data from :
Li and Smayda 1998
Year
T.J. Smayda, personnel communication
www.gso.uri.edu/phytoplankton

62. Mnemiopsis
Copepods leidyi Chl a
J
M
M
J
S
Cold Winter
N
Mnemiopsis
Copepods leidyi Chl a
J
M
M
J
S
N
Warm Winter

64. Total Phytoplankton Cell Counts in mid-Narragansett Bay
Historic data of Pratt (1965) provided courtesy of T. J. Smayda; recent data
from the GSO plankton monitoring (courtesy of P. Hargraves)
16
J,F,M
Annual
Cells, 10-6 L-1
12
8
4
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Date

65. Jamestown Sediment Oxygen Uptake as a Function
of Bottom Water Temperature
200
1971-1985
2005-2006
160
O2, mg m-2 h-1
120
80
40
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Temperature, º C
Fulweiler and Nixon Hydrobiologia in press