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The Many Ways Changing Climate Can Change Coastal Ecology

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The Many Ways Changing Climate Can Change Coastal Ecology …

The Many Ways Changing Climate Can Change Coastal Ecology
Scott W. Nixon, Robinson W. Fulweiler, Lindsey Fields, Betty A. Buckley, Stephen L. Granger, Barbara L. Nowicki, Kelly M. Henry
The impact of changing climate on phenology, productivity, and benthic- pelagic coupling in Narragansett Bay.

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  • 1. The Many Ways Changing Climate Can Change Coastal Ecology Scott W. Nixon, Robinson W. Fulweiler, Lindsey Fields, Betty A.Buckley, Stephen L. Granger, Barbara L. Nowicki, Kelly M. Henry
  • 2. The impact of changing climate on phenology, productivity, and benthic- pelagic coupling in Narragansett Bay. 2009.Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science 82:1-18.
  • 3. PHENOLOGY (NOUN) −The science of the relations between climate and periodic biological phenomena… (Webster) see: European Phenology Network and: Phenology, an Integrative Environmental Science, M. D. Schwartz, 2003, Kluwer, pp.564
  • 4. NARRAGANSETT BAY
  • 5. Mean Winter (D,J,F) Surface Water Temperature in Mid-Narragansett Bay 6 y = 0.05x - 88.5 5 R2=0.29Temperature,ºC 4 3 2 1 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR
  • 6. THE WINTER-SPRING BLOOM It has long been known that on both theEuropean and American coasts the most luxuriantdiatom growth does not take place in the warmestmonths … throughout the shallow waters south ofCape Cod a rich winter diatom plankton startsusually in November and continues until March,reaching a maximum in December. C. J. Fish (1925)
  • 7. “The outstanding feature of the annual cycle is thewinter-spring diatom flowering, which is extraordinaryin its time of inception, intensity, and duration.Logarithmic growth begins usually in December, andafter about a month terminates in a maximum sometimesexceeding 50,000 cells/ml; this is followed by a seriesof secondary peaks of diminishing amplitude, and theflowering period ends in late May or June. (p.173)” - Pratt (1965)
  • 8. TIME OF MAXIMUM BLOOM DEVELOPMENT Year 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Dec FebMonth Apr Jun Aug Oct
  • 9. 14 50 1960 1999 10 30 6 2 10 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DCells, 106 L-1 16 1961 20 2001 12 12 8 4 4 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 40 30 1962 2005 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Date
  • 10. CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BENTHOS Numerous studies have documented thatduring a relatively brief period the springphytoplankton bloom in temperate…regions candeliver as much as half of the total annual input oforganic carbon to the benthos…Earlier blooms mayoccur in colder water, which would reduceconsumption by pelagic heterotrophs and result inthe input of a greater proportion of planktonicproduction to the bottom sediments… Townsend and Cammen (1988)
  • 11. Cell Counts at St. 2 as above (1959-1980 from Karentz and Smayda 1998; 1999-2011 from GSO Plankton Monitoring)161412 J,F,M Mean10 Annual Mean 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year
  • 12. Chlorophyll in the Mid West Passage1210 8 6 4 2 01970 1980 1990 2000 2010 YEAR
  • 13. Winter-Spring (Dec-March) Bloom in the Mid West Passage10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YEAR
  • 14. *OLIGOTROPHICATION (noun) – a decrease in the rate of supply of organic matter to an ecosystem.*Nixon, S.W. Hydrobiologia In press
  • 15. Benthic Remineralization as a Function of Primary Production and Organic Input 400 Benthic Remineralization, g C m-2 y-1 350 300 y = 0.24x + 15 250 R2=0.94 Narragansett Bay 1975 200 150 100 50 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Primary Production + Organic Input, g C m-2 y-1Figure modified from Nixon 1981
  • 16. Jamestown Ammonium Flux at the Sediment-Water interface as a Function of Bottom Water Temperature 300 1971-1985 2005-2006 250 NH4+, μmol m-2 h-1 200 150 100 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 -50 Temperature, º CFulweiler and Nixon Hydrobiologia in press
  • 17. Jamestown DIP Flux at the Sediment-Water interface as a Function of Bottom Water Temperature 60 1971-85 50 2005-2006 DIP, μmol m-2 h-1 40 30 20 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 -10 Temperature, º CFulweiler and Nixon Hydrobiologia in press
  • 18. N2 Flux in mid-Narragansett Bay 125 100 N2-N (μmol m-2 h-1) 75 50 25 0 1979 1986 2005 -100 -200 2006 -300From Fulweiler et al. (2007) Nature 448: 180-182.
  • 19. Estimated Mean Live Biomass (excluding shell) of Demersal Epibenthic Animals in Mid-Narragansett Bay 40 Winter y = -0.451x + 906.38 Biomass, kg tow -1 30 R2=0.38 20 10 0 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Year 100 Summer -1 Biomass, kg tow 80 60 40 20 0 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Year
  • 20. Mean Annual wet weight biomass for 26 Stations in Narragansett Bay 10000 8000 6000Kg y-1 4000 2000 0 `80-84 `87-91 `95-99 `80-84 `87-91 `95-99 `80-84 `87-91 `95-99 Pelagic Demersal TotalData from Oviatt (2004)
  • 21. Winter Flounder down 90% Windowpane Flounder down 89% Northern Sea Robin down 88% Sea Raven down 99% Red Hake down 91% Major pelagics are more southern species, including bay anchovy, butterfish, alewife, scup, and long finned squid.http://www.gma.org/fogm/images/striped_sea_robin.gif
  • 22. What’s causing these changes?
  • 23. ANNUAL DISSOLVED INORGANIC NITROGEN DISCHARGE FROM THETHREE MAJOR UPPER BAY SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANTS, 1992-2003 140 MILLIONS OF MOLES PER YEAR 120 TOTAL 100 80 FIELDS PT 60 BUCKLIN PT 40 20 E. PROV. 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 YEAR
  • 24. Nitrogen Input to Narragansett Bay 1865-2004 700 600 N Input, 106 moles y -1 500 400 300 200 100 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Nixon et al. (2008) Year
  • 25. Mean Winter (D,J,F) Surface Water Temperature in Mid-Narragansett Bay 6 y = 0.05x - 88.5 5 R2=0.29Temperature,ºC 4 3 2 1 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR
  • 26. MEAN ANNUAL WIND SPEED AT GREEN AIRPORT From Pilson (2008) 19 18Mean Speed, km h-1 17 16 15 14 13 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 YEAR
  • 27. Mean Jan-Feb. Irradiance Year 120 y = -0.6558x + 1388.1 R2=0.43Irradiance, W m-2 p<0.0001 100 80 60 40 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year
  • 28. *Mean annual and summer (J,J,A) chlorophyll and primary production (14C uptake) in Narragansett Bay *data from Oviatt et al. 2002 50 2 West Passage 40Chl a, mg m-3 1.5 PP, g m-2 d-1 30 1 20 0.5 10 0 0 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Distance above (-) or below Conimicut Pt., km Annual Mean Chl Summer Mean Chl Phytoplankton Production
  • 29. *Mean annual vertical light attenuation coefficient (1997/98)* *data from Oviatt et al. 2002 1.0 West Passage 0.8 East Passage-k m-1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Distance above (-) or below Conimicut Pt., km
  • 30. Inputs of Carbon to Narragansett Bay DOC POC Total % of Total Inputs Rivers and Streams 1140 375 1815 15 Sewage Treatment Plants 190 140 330 3 Primary Production ? 9600 9600 82 Total C 11745From Nixon et al. 1995
  • 31. Jamestown Si Flux at the Sediment-Water interface as a Function of Bottom Water Temperature 1000Si, μmol m-2 h-1 600 200 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 -200 Temperature, º C
  • 32. “Denitrification represents a major sink for fixed N in the bay; annually the N2 production is equal to about 50% of the fixed N loading to the bay from rivers, land, and sewage. (p. 73)” (Seitzinger et al., 1984)
  • 33. Surface Water Nutrient Concentrations in mid-Narragansett Bay (2006) 25 2.0 DIP 20 1.6DIN, µM DIP , µM DIN 15 1.2 10 0.8 5 0.4 0 0.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D
  • 34. WATER AND SEWAGE IN PROVIDENCE, 1877-2003 350AVERAGE DAILY FLOW, 300thousands of cubic meters 250 SEWAGE 200 150 100 50 WATER 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 YEAR
  • 35. But what Martin (1966) actually concluded was, “Grazing severely limited the standing crop of thisdiatom [Skeletonema] when primary production was stopped or slowed by inadequate light intensitiesand/or nutrient excretion…In general it may be said that zooplankton grazing would never arrest theproduction of a species capable of rapid division such as Skeletonema, if light intensities and nutrient concentrations were not limiting since zooplankton growth, which is dependent on phytoplankton production, would necessarily lag behind. (p. 67)”
  • 36. Winter-Spring (Jan.-Apr.) Irradiance vs. mid-Narragansett Bay Surface Water Temperature (1960-2006) 120 Irradiance, W m-2 80 40 0 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 Temperature, ◦CIrradiance from Eppley Laboratory, Newport, Rhode Island.
  • 37. Nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to Narragansett Bay in the 1980’s and in the late 1990’s-early 2000’s from smaller sewage treatment plants that discharge directly into the bay below Conimicut Point. Units are millions of moles per year. Total N Total P 1985-86* 2001-03 1986-86* 2001-03 aJamestown 0.2 0.3 0.06 0.09Quonset 1.0 0.9 0.09 bEast Greenwich 2.1 1.0 0.52 0.54 aWarren 2.4 2.4 0.16 0.05Bristol 5.3 6.5 0.33 0.18 TOTAL 11.0 11.1 1.16 0.86________________________________________________________________________* a b From et. al. (1995) 1996, 2000
  • 38. Frithsen (1989) on Food Limitation... “The evidence … is largely circumstantial, somewhatcompelling, but certainly not solid (p.37)”.
  • 39. Borkman’s detailed study (2002) concluded that, “Winter-spring Skeletonema bloom duration declined from ca. six weeks in 1959-63 to three weeks in 1978-82 while first quarter abundance declined from 6000 cells ml-1 (1959-63) to ca. 1200 cells ml-1 (1991-96).http://www.ambra.unibo.it/baiona/img/skeletonema.jpg
  • 40. “…the seasonal cycle in new and regenerated production in the pelagic system is of vital importance to the benthos both in terms of quantity and quality of the food supply.( p.533) ” Smetacek (1984)http://omp.gso.uri.edu/doee/science/biology/b4d.htm
  • 41. “The particles sinking out of such [regenerating]systems are truly wastes, i.e. they are composed of refractory material with low essential element content. p. 533” Smetacek (1984)
  • 42. Nitrogen Input to Narragansett Bay 1865-2004 700 600 N Input, 106 moles y -1 500 400 300 200 100 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Nixon et al. In Press Year
  • 43. *Mean Annual and Summer Chlorophyll in Mid-Narragansett Bay *data from Smayda and GSO phytoplankton monitoring 20 Annual Summer Chl a, mg m-3 16 12 8 4 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
  • 44. Cumulative volume of water (MLW) in Narragansett Bay 3000Volume, 106 m-3 Total 2000 East Passage West Passage 1000 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Distance below Fox Pt., km
  • 45. *Vertical Light Attenuation as a function of Mean Surface and Bottom Water Temperature in Mid-Narragansett Bay *data from Oviatt et al. 2002. 0.8 0.6-k m-1 0.4 y = 0.112Ln(x) + 0.37 0.2 R2=0.61 0.0 0 4 8 12 16 Chl a, mg m-3
  • 46. Mean annual and summer (J,J,A) chlorophyll and *primary production (14C uptake) in Narragansett Bay *primary production data from Oviatt et al. 2002 50 2 East 40 Passage 1.5Chl a, mg m-3 PP, g m-2 d-1 30 1 20 0.5 10 0 0 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Distance above (-) or below Conimicut Pt., km Annual Mean Chl Summer Mean Chl Phytoplankton Production
  • 47. Proportional Abundance by Species Group 1.0 SquidProportional catch by species group Pelagic fish 0.8 Benthic invertebrates Demersal fish 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 Year
  • 48. Fox PointConimicut Point East PassageWest Passage
  • 49. OPEN WATER SURFACE AREA OF SOME IMPORTANT ESTUARIES IN THE UNITED STATES, km2 Waquoit Bay, MA 8 Barnegat Bay, NJ 102 Great South Bay, NY 235 Narragansett Bay, RI 328 New York Bay 390 Indian River Lagoon, FL 725 Mobile Bay 1152 San Francisco Bay 1173 Potomac Estuary, MD 1279 Delaware Bay 1989 Puget Sound 2330 Long Island Sound 3200 Chesapeake Bay 11500 Pamlico Sound 27092
  • 50. RATIO OF WETLANDS AREA TO OPEN WATER AREA IN SOME US ESTUARIES Narragansett Bay 0.02 Long Island Sound 0.05 Tampa Bay 0.06http://www.delawareestuary.org/images/SciencePix/TFW_4_dk.JPG Mobile Bay 0.08 Chesapeake Bay 0.11 Apalachicola Bay 0.12 Chincoteague Bay 0.31 Delaware Bay 0.38 Aransas Bay 0.39 San Francisco Bay 0.42 Barataria Bay 1.43 Inshore Georgia 1.90
  • 51. DELAWARE BAY
  • 52. BostonNew York City
  • 53. 14 1960 10 6 2 J F M A M J J A S O N D 16 Cells, 106 L-1 1961 12 8 4 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D 40 1962 30 Note scale change 20 10 0 J F M A M J J A S O N DData from D. Pratt and T.J. Smayda Date
  • 54. NARRAGANSETT BAY
  • 55. Annual chlorophyll levels in mid-Narragansett Bay, R.I. 1973-2006 16 = 8Chl a, mg m-3 y = 1E+23e-.026x 6 R2=0.61 p<0.0001 4 2 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Data from :Li and Smayda 1998 YearT.J. Smayda, personnel communicationwww.gso.uri.edu/phytoplankton
  • 56. Mnemiopsis Copepods leidyi Chl aJMMJS Cold WinterN Mnemiopsis Copepods leidyi Chl aJMMJSN Warm Winter
  • 57. Total Phytoplankton Cell Counts in mid-Narragansett Bay Historic data of Pratt (1965) provided courtesy of T. J. Smayda; recent data from the GSO plankton monitoring (courtesy of P. Hargraves) 16 J,F,M AnnualCells, 10-6 L-1 12 8 4 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Date
  • 58. Jamestown Sediment Oxygen Uptake as a Function of Bottom Water Temperature 200 1971-1985 2005-2006 160O2, mg m-2 h-1 120 80 40 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Temperature, º CFulweiler and Nixon Hydrobiologia in press