111513 Preliminary Project Execution Plan (Schedule & Cost)

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My objectives:
1) To reconcile student’s understanding of the fundamental integrative approach to project management.
2) To highlight the critical project management elements needed for success.
3) To share with students some interesting stories that can reinforce correct project management concept.
4) To demonstrate the importance of a risk-based Project Execution Plan.
5) To emphasize the importance of a good quality plan.

Rufran (111513)

Rufran is the author of the book Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective.
• https://youtu.be/LDESPW6OYkg
• http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI
• https://www.amazon.com/author/rufrancfrago

For those who are interested, please join Rufran at (click hyperlink) the following sites.
1) LinkedIn Risk-based Management (RBM) Group
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/6575331
2) My Oil Pro
http://oilpro.com/rufran
3) Risk-based Management and Services Inc. Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/RiskBasedManagement/
4) Your World, Our Risk Universe: WordPress
https://rufrancfrago.wordpress.com/tag/rufran-frago/
5) E-Touch Up: A Brand of RBM&S Inc.
https://www.facebook.com/ETouchUp/
6) Author Page: Amazon.com
http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI
7) LinkedIn Professional Website
https://www.linkedin.com/in/rufranfrago
Other articles authored by Rufran Frago.
1) Schedule Critical path
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-critical-path?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
2) Primer to Good Schedule Integration
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/primer-good-schedule-integration-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
3) Project Schedule: P50, Anyone?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/project-schedule-p50-anyone-article-rufran-frago-edmonton-section
4) Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-baseline-dilemma-part-1-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
5) Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 2
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-baseline-dilemma-part-2-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
6) 4D Scheduling Part 1: What is it about?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/4d-scheduling-my-vista-part-1-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
7) Risks as a Function of Time
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risk-function-time-rufran-frago-p-eng-pmp-ccp-pmi-rmp-?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
8) Oil Price, Recession: Causes, Issues and Risks
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oil-price-recession-causes-issues-risks-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
9) Your World, Our Risk Universe
https://rufrancfrago.wordpress.com/tag/rufrans-blog/

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111513 Preliminary Project Execution Plan (Schedule & Cost)

  1. 1. Preliminary Project Execution Plan SCHEDULE & COST Revision 1: November 12, 2013
  2. 2. Preliminary PEP: Schedule and Cost AUTHOR Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP® Rufran has a wide-range of expertise & specialization while working in the Manufacturing, Petrochemical, Oleo-chemicals, Oil and Gas, Education & Training Industries for more than 36 years in various roles and capacities. He has worked in Asia, Africa, Middle East and North America. His expertise includes: Primavera Database Administration, Programs and Project Planning & Scheduling, Qualitative/Quantitative Risk Management, Problem Solving, Project Management, Cost Engineering, Project Control, Construction Management/Coordination, Project Review & Implementation Audit, Estimating, Engineering & Design, Fab/Mod Management, Preventive & Predictive Reliability- Based Maintenance, Operation, Material Selection, Warehousing, EH&S, and Training. 2
  3. 3. Rufran is the author of the book Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective. • https://youtu.be/LDESPW6OYkg • http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI • https://www.amazon.com/author/rufrancfrago 3
  4. 4. For those who are interested, please join Rufran at (click hyperlink) the following sites. LinkedIn Risk-based Management (RBM) Group https://www.linkedin.com/groups/6575331 My Oil Pro http://oilpro.com/rufran Risk-based Management and Services Inc. Facebook https://www.facebook.com/RiskBasedManagement/ Your World, Our Risk Universe: WordPress https://rufrancfrago.wordpress.com/tag/rufran-frago/ E-Touch Up: A Brand of RBM&S Inc. https://www.facebook.com/ETouchUp/ Author Page: Amazon.com http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI LinkedIn Professional Website https://www.linkedin.com/in/rufranfrago Other articles authored by Rufran Frago. Schedule Critical path https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-critical-path?trk=pulse-det-nav_art Primer to Good Schedule Integration https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/primer-good-schedule-integration-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art Project Schedule: P50, Anyone? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/project-schedule-p50-anyone-article-rufran-frago-edmonton-section Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-baseline-dilemma-part-1-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 2 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-baseline-dilemma-part-2-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art 4
  5. 5. Rules of Engagement Turn off your cell phones Ask questions One person at a time Participate! Have fun! No Texting No Phones Abide by Class Times Ask Questions 5
  6. 6. Purpose of this session To reconcile student’s understanding of the fundamental integrative approach to project management. To highlight the critical project management elements needed for success. To share with students some interesting stories that can reinforce correct project management concept. To demonstrate the importance of a risk-based Project Execution Plan. To emphasize the importance of a good quality plan. 6
  7. 7. 7 LESSONS Ref: Frago, R., 1991.Original Drawing of Peter Nigel
  8. 8. Causes of IT/IS Project Failure (IT-Cortex, 2013) 8 UK Bull Survey (1998) – Top 3 causes • Communication breakdown • Lack of Planning • Poor Quality Control Canadian KPMG Survey (1997) – Top 3 causes • Poor project planning • Weak business case • Lack of top management support Chaos Report (1995) Top 7 causes • Incomplete requirements • Lack of User involvement • Lack of resources • Unrealistic expectations • Lack of management support • Changing requirements • Lack of planning
  9. 9. Example of Failed Construction Projects 9 1. Canada-Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (Wikipedia, 2013) . Cost overrun from $780M (2002) to $2.5B (2005) with only two reactors in service instead of four. That’s 221% more. 2. Canada-Montreal Olympic Stadium (Payne, M., 2006 and Wikipedia , 2013). Cost overrun from $310M (1970) to a debt of $1B (1976) & a final cost settlement of $2B (2006). That’s 545% more. Poor quality structure. 3. Canada-Long Lake Project (Journal of Commerce, 2008). Cost overrun from $2B (2004) to $6.1B (2008). That’s 205% more. Schedule delay. Production capacity was not met. 4. Canada-Aecon FB3 Project (Reuters, 2011). Cost overrun up to $59M. Schedule delay. Too much changes. Fixed-price contract not be suitable for very large & complex project.
  10. 10. Planning & Scheduling 10 Planning basically determines what and how you are going to do it, while scheduling determines when you are going to start and finish the job or the project. Heuristics = Focus more on planning, rather than the just the plan. There is nothing as inefficient as doing with great efficiency, that which does not need to be done.
  11. 11. Cost Management Plan 11 Good cost management plan starts with a good estimate. Followed by manageable cost breakdown preferably down to the work package level. Establishing a cost baseline let the project knows its target to measure performance. Measurement, monitoring and control keeps cost at bay. Management of Cost Risk
  12. 12. Schedule Management Plan 12 Fast track project philosophy applied to all activities Alignment with Execution Strategy Schedule duration represent modal [most likely] or median [P50 mid point] or mean [average] values. Aligned with the Estimate (Resource Load & Package) Integrated schedule Management of schedule risk
  13. 13. Disjointed Plan = Disjointed Schedule (Frago, R., 2008) 13
  14. 14. 14 INTEGRATION Syllogism: How can a structure stand the load if its components are misaligned and not properly fastened together?
  15. 15. Integrative Planning Process (IPP) Source: PMBOK 5th Edition (2013).Page 61 15
  16. 16. IPP (continuation…) Source: PMBOK 5th Edition (2013).Page 61 16
  17. 17. Sample PEP 17
  18. 18. 18 FRAMEWORK • Project works best with an implementation framework
  19. 19. Examples of Project Implementation Model 19 SPIM (Suncor, 2012) SF-PIP (Government of South Australia, 2011). 7FE (Management by Process, 2013)
  20. 20. Processes and Phases Source: PMBOK 5th Edition (2013).Page 51 Preliminary PEP: Schedule & Cost 1 2 3 4 5 20
  21. 21. IPR (continuation…) Source: PMBOK 5th Edition (2013).Page 40 Preliminary PEP= Preliminary Schedule & Preliminary Cost 1 2 3 4 5 21
  22. 22. 22 RISK-BASED APPROACH • Everything we do in the project is associated with managing risks. • In fact, I do believe that it is what we do everyday.
  23. 23. Project Risk Management It is important that the project undertake the following as part of continuous collaboration process through out the different phases & stages until completion. • Qualitative Risk Assessment • Quantitative Risk Assessment 23
  24. 24. Quantitative Risk Analysis supports PEP 24 Source: Frago, R. (2013). How to Prepare for SQRA
  25. 25. RISKS (Project, schedule and cost risks 25 Project Risk* is defined as “an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, quality, etc.” Schedule Risk is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on the project’s schedule.
  26. 26. 26 RISKS: It’s NATURE & HABITAT
  27. 27. IRON TRIANGLE (PM Triangle) 27 COST TIME SCOPE QUALITY Source: Wikipedia, 2013.Project Management Triangle
  28. 28. A need for a Risk-Based PEP 28Source: Frago, R. (2013).Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches.
  29. 29. A need for a Risk-Based PEP (continuation…) 29Source: Frago, R. (2013).Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches.
  30. 30. Barriers to your Project Plan 30Source: Calgary Maps, 2013. Plus 15. http://www.calgary-convention.com/calgary/maps
  31. 31. 31 WORDS OF WISDOM Planning Heuristics Rufran2013 Ref: Frago, R., 2013.Old man. Original Drawingwhiteboard marker
  32. 32. Words of Wisdom 32 1. Don’t plan (or schedule) in more detail than you can manage. (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1997, p117) 2. If you don’t know where you’re going, how will you know when you get there? (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1997, p.53) 3. [Alice said] “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?” “That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat. “I don’t know where…” said Alice. “Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat. (Reference: Lewis Carroll-Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland) 4. Avoid the classic problem of trying to put ten pounds of trash in a five pound bag! It will not work. (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1997, p.97) 5. Digging the best hole in the world is of little use if a hole is not needed in the first place. (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1997, p.167) 6. Putting two jockeys on one horse won’t make the horse run any faster. (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1991, p.66) 7. “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” (Ref: Quoted by Dwight Eisenhower, 17Nov1957) 8. If you have no plan, control is impossible. (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1991, p25) 9. A Project Manager should always be assigned prior to the start of project planning and preferably while the Project Charter is being developed. (Ref: PMBOK 3rd Edition, e-file, p.96, Section 4.1)
  33. 33. BIBLIOGRAPHY 33 1. Suncor (2012).Suncor Project Implementation Model 2. Government of South Australia (2011).Project Implementation Process.p28. 3. Management by Process (2013).7FE Project Framework.Retrieved from http://www.managementbyprocess.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_conten t&task=view&id=16 4. IT-Cortex (2013).Failure Causes.Retrieved from http://www.it- cortex.com/Stat_Failure_Cause.htm 5. Wikipedia (2013).Cost Overrun.Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_overrun 6. Calgary Herald (2007).Huge Cost Overruns…Retrieved from http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=afeb07dc-a5ff-4608-a9f7-450367ff99ef 7. Wikipedia (2013).Olympic Stadium (Montreal).retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Olympic_Stadium 8. Payne, M. (2006).Olympic Turnaround.page 9 9. Journal of Commerce, 2008. Cost overruns delay production at Long Lake Oilsands project.Retrieved from http://www.journalofcommerce.com/article/id31166
  34. 34. BIBLIOGRAPHY (Continuation…) 34 10. Reuters, 2011.Update Aecon sees $56M to $59M hit…Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/04/aecongroup- idUSSGE71307O20110204 11. Frago, R. (Jan-2008), Project ABC Construction Schedule Analysis.E-mail flag to Project Manager 12. PMBOK 5th Edition (2013).Page 40, 50 & 61 13. Frago, R. (2013). How to Prepare for SQRA.Slideshare.Retrieved from http://www.slideshare.net/rfrago/071513-how-to-prepare-for-sqra-by-rcf 14. Wikipedia, 2013.Project Management Triangle.Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_management_triangle 15. Frago, R. (2013).Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches. Retrieved from http://www.slideshare.net/rfrago/082213-risk-concepts- philosophies-methods-and-approaches 16. Calgary Maps, 2013. Plus 15. Retrieved from http://www.calgary- convention.com/calgary/maps 17. Frago, R., 2013.Old man & his book. Original Drawingwhiteboard marker 18. Frago, R., 1991.Original Drawing of Peter Nigel@CATPMS
  35. 35. 35 END OF PRESENTATION

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