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101116 Risk-based Planning & Scheduling (My SAIT Slides)

Risk-based Planning and Scheduling, a short course presentation originally prepared for the Bachelor of Science Construction Project Management class, School of Construction, Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, Calgary, Alberta on October 11, 2016.

About the Author/Speaker:

Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®, Author
Senior Planning Specialist, Suncor Energy Inc.
President/Managing Director, RBM&S Inc.
Owner Administrator, E-Touch Up

Wide-range of expertise & specialization in the Manufacturing, Petrochemical, Oleo-chemicals, Oil and Gas, Education & Training Industries for more than 40 years in various roles and capacities. Exposure: Asia, Africa, Middle East and North America.

His expertise includes: Primavera Database Administration, Programs and Project Planning & Scheduling, Qualitative/Quantitative Risk Management, Problem Solving, Project Management, Cost Engineering, Project Control, Construction Management/Coordination, Project Review & Implementation Audit, Estimating, Engineering & Design, Fab/Mod Management, Preventive & Predictive Reliability-Based Maintenance, Operation, Material Selection, Warehousing, EH&S, and Training.

101116 Risk-based Planning & Scheduling (My SAIT Slides)

  1. 1. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Welcome to Project Planning and Scheduling • Risk-based approach to planning and scheduling • Schedule Critical Path • Integrated planning and scheduling • Risks what are you? • Mega-Projects Schedule Integration and Management RUFRAN C. FRAGO, P.Eng, PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP® Author Senior Planning Specialist – Suncor Energy Inc. President/Managing Director-Risk-based Management and Services Inc. 1
  2. 2. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 About the Speaker Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®, Author Senior Planning Specialist, Suncor Energy Inc. President/Managing Director, RBM&S Inc. Owner Administrator, E-Touch Up Wide-range of expertise & specialization in the Manufacturing, Petrochemical, Oleo-chemicals, Oil and Gas, Education & Training Industries for more than 40 years in various roles and capacities. Exposure: Asia, Africa, Middle East and North America. His expertise includes: Primavera Database Administration, Programs and Project Planning & Scheduling, Qualitative/Quantitative Risk Management, Problem Solving, Project Management, Cost Engineering, Project Control, Construction Management/Coordination, Project Review & Implementation Audit, Estimating, Engineering & Design, Fab/Mod Management, Preventive & Predictive Reliability-Based Maintenance, Operation, Material Selection, Warehousing, EH&S, and Training. https://www.e-touchup.com https://www.facebook.com/ETouchUp/ https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8437684 http://www.facebook.com/RiskBasedManagement 2
  3. 3. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Safety Moment – Arrive Alive!(1) • 25% of accidents result from excessive speed • 70% of accidents occur within 25 miles from home 3
  4. 4. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 This course includes: • Project Overview • Planning and Scheduling • Project Planning • Developing the Schedule • Time Management and Control • Summary 4
  5. 5. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 • What is a Project • Fundamental attributes of Planning and Scheduling • Inputs, processes and outputs of Planning • Inputs, processes and outputs of Scheduling • Inputs, processes and outputs of the Schedule Management and Control • Properties of a Schedule Critical Path • Mega-Projects Schedule Management and Integration • What you will learn 5
  6. 6. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Remember this: A Project is a temporary endeavor to create a unique product, service or result. Ask yourself, “What is a project?” 6
  7. 7. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Project Phases or Project Life Cycle 7
  8. 8. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Repeating Processes in the Project Life Cycle Monitoring & Controlling Initiating Closing Planning Executing Processes are not Project Phases! 8
  9. 9. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Project Phases or Project Life Cycle Starting project Organizing & preparing Carryout project work Closing project CostandStaffingLevel Time 9
  10. 10. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Risk-based Planning 10
  11. 11. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Risk-based Planning and Alice in Wonderland (3) “Excuse me, would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?“ "That depends a good deal on where you want to get to," said the Cat. "I don’t much care where," said Alice. "Then it doesn’t matter which way you go," said the Cat. 11
  12. 12. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Risk-based Planning (1) Risk-based planning is the process of identifying the goals or objectives to be achieved, formulating strategies to achieve them, arranging or creating the means required with proper consideration of their associated risks. The risk-based plan is an input to the risk-based schedule. 12
  13. 13. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Risk-based Planning (1) Monitoring & Controlling Planning Executing Closing Initiating • Project Charter • Preliminary Project Scope Statement Input • PEP • Resources • Calendars • Make or buy • Source selection • Documents • Risk-based schedule • Contracts, etc. Output Click each element for the interactions. 13
  14. 14. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Project Execution Plan = Mother of all Plans (1) PEP Scope Requirements Definition WBS Risk –based Management Risk-based Identification Qualitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis Response Cost Estimate Budget Resources Procurement Communications Quality Stakeholder Schedule Basis Activity Sequencing Loading Duration 14
  15. 15. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 The 4C’s of Planning (1) (4) Clarify Objectives Codify Requirements Contingencies identified Commits plan on paper 15
  16. 16. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Basis of Schedule (BOS) (1) • The Basis of Schedule describes the methodology, assumptions, templates and tools to be used in the development of the Project Schedule • The primary goal is to provide a sound schedule, aligned to the Baseline Estimate and meeting the requirements of each SPIM Gate, especially Gate-3. • Can be considered a Schedule plan and one of the outputs of the project’s planning process. It is an input to schedule development. 16
  17. 17. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Risk-based Scheduling 17
  18. 18. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Risk-based Scheduling (1)(2) Scheduling is the assignment of desired start and finish times to each activity inside the overall timeline benchmarked to complete the project. It involves the process of converting a risk-based plan into a risk-based schedule. It is the collection of activities needed to implement a plan A risk-based schedule is not possible without pulling together a risk-based plan. 18
  19. 19. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Planning and Scheduling Chart (1) Planning and Scheduling Project Planning Schedule Development Schedule Management and Control Plan to schedule, schedule to plan (4) 19
  20. 20. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Integrated Planning and Scheduling (1) (4) (7) Source: Frago, R. (2016).Integrated schedule, a must have in program management 20
  21. 21. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Planning & Scheduling Made for Each Other (1) (4) Source: Frago, R. (2016). Plan and Schedule: Planner and Scheduler: What is your story? 21
  22. 22. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 CRITICAL PATH METHOD Schedule Critical Path 22
  23. 23. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Schedule Critical Path (1)(3)(4) The Longest! The Shortest! It depends! 23
  24. 24. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Schedule Critical Path (1)(3)(4) This queue is an visual example of critical path! 24
  25. 25. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Relative Schedule Critical Path (1)(3)(4) The Longest! The Shortest! It depends! 25
  26. 26. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Schedule Management and Control (1)(4) Part of the project’s Integrated Change Control process. Schedule control is concerned with: • status of the schedule and schedule forecast • root cause of influencing factors that create changes • schedule risks • what has changed • managing changes as they occur • achievability • predictability 26
  27. 27. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 27
  28. 28. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Schedule Risk is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on the project’s schedule. Similarly, Project Risk* is defined as “an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, quality, etc.” Schedule Risk (1) (4) (5) 28
  29. 29. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 There are risks in all you do, be it in bed or on the road. Opportunity or threat to you, control them if you could. To recognize them is a must, before one can do a thing. It is folly just to trust, with no idea what they'll bring. Of course we need a risk-based plan, to help us make the move. It help us track the work we've done, and keep us in the groove. Risk is a threat to objective, when it keeps you from your goals. Opportunity when it brings you, Successful endeavors. RISK… What are you?, a Manager’s Poem (1)(4)(6) 29
  30. 30. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Schedule Risks (1) (4) (6) For risk in fact is double-faced, with smile and frown on each. From where you stand, do appreciate, which one to you is which? Risk is in the future, not in the present or the past. An event that still to occur, whether it's good or bad. Source: Frago, R. (2015). Plan and Schedule: Planner and Scheduler: What is your story?
  31. 31. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Risk Cycle (1) (4) 31
  32. 32. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 MEGA-PROJECT SCHEDULE INTEGRATION AND MANAGEMENT Source: Frago, R. (2013). Mega-Project Schedule Integration and Management (RCF Method-1) 32
  33. 33. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 Example of Mega Projects (AB) 33
  34. 34. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 1) Full integration using hard linking between areas daunting. 2) Calculation of CP needs all the linked schedules to be opened before F9 (P6 calculation). The schedule is just too large to control effectively. 3) Everyone knows that without those IPL, a fast-accurate CP identification is not available. 4) A KIM Excel table outside of Primavera is commonly used to manage the overall project portfolio. It is used as a tool to consolidate date information. 5) Using more than one application to manage the overall schedule. Project can end up using two versions of the truth. PROBLEMS TO TACKLE (8) Source: Frago, R. (2013). Mega-Project Schedule Integration and Management (RCF Method-1) 34
  35. 35. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 OBJECTIVES To come up with a workable alternative to the most common KIM Schedule Management method of using a flat file from a separate application. To come up with a method that preserve the Critical Path calculation and identification. To propose a method that does not require opening the whole project portfolio at the same time to do a one time F9 (calculate) To use of a singular and common production scheduling database 35
  36. 36. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 OBJECTIVES… (continuation) To simplify the management of the Overall schedule though the use of a KIM Schedule without losing that essential inter-project relationships nor limited by the Project Portfolio’s sheer size To propose a workable method that will support accurate, quick date analysis and timely decision making. To do away the time-consuming collection of data by offering a common work environment and promoting “what you see is what you get” information quality Divide the schedule to manageable pieces and integrate. 36
  37. 37. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 SEPARATE EPS (Enterprise Project Structure)(8) 37
  38. 38. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 KIM SCHEDULE IN A SEPARATE EPS NODE (8) 38
  39. 39. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 BL DEPENDS ON MATURITY & INTEGRATION (10) Source: Frago, R. (2015). Risk-based Management: Data Maturity, Integration, Risk and Execution Poor Project Integration like a Tower with Loose or Missing Fasteners 39
  40. 40. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 BASELINE SCHEDULE & CONTROL SCHEDULE (9) Source: Frago, R. (2015). Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1 40
  41. 41. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 KNOWLEDGE CHECK 1) True or False? You can only use the Plan – Do – Check – Act cycle at the beginning of a project. 2) Fill in the Blanks. The _______of one Project Management Process Group often serves as the _______ of another. 3) True or False? Running a plant is a project. 4) True or False? House construction is a project. 5) True or False? Moving to another country is a project. 6) True or False? CPM is an acronym for Critical Path Model 7) True or False? Risk is a future event. 8) True or False? Business risk has two face. 9) Threats and Opportunities embodies __________. 10) Plan to _________, schedule to _________ supports the husband and wife syllogism of planning and scheduling. 41
  42. 42. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1) Frago, R. (2015).Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective. ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7 (Canada) 2) AACE, 2013.AACE 14R-90 Responsibility and Required Skilled for Project Planning, 2013. 3) Frago, R. (2016).Schedule Critical Path.LinkedIn Pulse 4) Frago, R. (2016).Schedule to Plan, Plan to Schedule.Draft Manuscript.ISBN 978-0- 9947608-2-1 (Canada) 5) PMBOK-3rd Edition 6) Frago, R. (2015).Risks… what are you?.Wordpress.com 7) Frago, R. (2016).Integrated schedule, a must have in program management 8) Frago, R. (2013). Mega-Project Schedule Integration and Management (RCF Method-1) 9) Frago, R. (2015). Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1 10) Frago, R. (2015). Risk-based Management: Data Maturity, Integration, Risk and Execution 42
  43. 43. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling 2016 43 Thank You 101116 - This presentation was initially prepared for the Bachelor of Science Construction Project Management class, School of Construction at Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, Calgary, Alberta.

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  • rfrago

    Oct. 10, 2016
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    Oct. 10, 2016
  • AhmedEzeldin2

    Feb. 5, 2017
  • HandelLamey

    Apr. 12, 2017

Risk-based Planning and Scheduling, a short course presentation originally prepared for the Bachelor of Science Construction Project Management class, School of Construction, Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, Calgary, Alberta on October 11, 2016. About the Author/Speaker: Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®, Author Senior Planning Specialist, Suncor Energy Inc. President/Managing Director, RBM&S Inc. Owner Administrator, E-Touch Up Wide-range of expertise & specialization in the Manufacturing, Petrochemical, Oleo-chemicals, Oil and Gas, Education & Training Industries for more than 40 years in various roles and capacities. Exposure: Asia, Africa, Middle East and North America. His expertise includes: Primavera Database Administration, Programs and Project Planning & Scheduling, Qualitative/Quantitative Risk Management, Problem Solving, Project Management, Cost Engineering, Project Control, Construction Management/Coordination, Project Review & Implementation Audit, Estimating, Engineering & Design, Fab/Mod Management, Preventive & Predictive Reliability-Based Maintenance, Operation, Material Selection, Warehousing, EH&S, and Training.

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