@ALL, Developing a schedule needs to be approached with success in mind. Dividing the project or portfolio into smaller manageable pieces, or sub-projects is a good principle, a strategy acceptable and recommended in various industries. However, as the number grow, the quality, integration, and alignment challenge becomes the next hurdle. Key dates are usually not supporting each other. The schedule is seldom properly integrated, ending up with critical probability disconnects in its vertical and horizontal relationships. Upon closer inspection, the baseline deterministic schedule has different, wide, and varying range of certainties, most concerning in large portfolios with many projects depending on each other. It is for this reason that the project have to address this disconnect and come up with what can be a middle ground i.e. an achievable P50 Risk-based baseline using Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis. We use three-point estimate method to demonstrate the generation of the P50 risk-based schedule baseline. This article also shows that any project is capable of generating other risk-based schedule baselines such as P40, or P70. The project that is able to develop a high quality, integrated, and aligned schedules, set itself for success. Part of the alignment process suggested is the use of P50 dates across the project portfolio to enhance achievability. Rufran

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AUTHOR : Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®
REVISION : November 14, 2014

2. Disclaimer:
The names, events, locations, and circumstances in this write up are fictitious & any resemblance to
real persons living or dead, events, locations, and circumstances is purely coincidental. The mock up
situation considered is something that could happen in real life and can be a source of learning for
anyone interested in root cause analysis using the Fault Tree Analysis technique.
2
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• Schedule quality, integration, and
alignment challenge
• Silo key dates are not supporting each
other
• Baseline has different, wide, and
varying range of probabilities
• Unachievable deterministic schedule
• Separate silo schedules that lie in
different databases

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• Path convergence
• Arrival dates not supporting required at
site dates
• Interface tables need improved dates
• Project is looking for the right schedule
benchmark
• Other inherent schedule risks

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Sorry, the article you are looking was removed.
You will find a more detailed discussion about the subject and many other related
topics in the paperback edition of the book "Risk-based Management in the World of
Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective." It is also available in
Amazon’s Kindle edition.
Please follow the hyperlink below or copy and paste the URL on your browser to
check. You can now grab a copy. Check it out!
http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0104OFUDI/ref=rdr_kindle_ext_tmb
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risk-based-management-world-threats-
opportunities-rufran?trk=prof-post
Cheers,
Rufran C. Frago
Author
Sorry, the article you are looking for was removed.