The telecom industry faces challenges in 2009 due to expected negative growth and job cuts. However, the document argues this presents opportunities for companies focused on mobile apps and smartphones. It predicts Apple's App Store will become a $1 billion business, driving growth, and that new players will benefit from new opportunities in smartphones and apps as traditional vendors struggle. Finally, it notes that Apple has changed the rules of the game, requiring all players to adapt to the new app-focused mobile landscape.

1. 2009 Telecom Outlook
A CHALLENGING YEAR AND EMERGING
OPPORTUNITIES

2. quot;This is the exact time to invest -if you can– because not
only is there opportunity, but there are lots of
resources out there.“ Mike Lazaridis, RIM co-CEO

3. Expected growth rate for 2009 for the Telecom equipment
market, compared to the year before (IDATE).

4. Expected negative growth rate for 2009 for mobile phone
shipments, compared to the year before (IDC).

5. Nortel will cut 3,200 positions on top of previous cuts, Nokia will
cut another 1,700 jobs and Microsoft will
cut 5% of its workforce over the next 18 months.

6. The
industry
is reaching
a tipping point.
The outlook for the Telecom Industry is challenging, but the industry
was facing decreasing margins and a flattening
growth rate for voice before the crisis.

7. The
AppStore
changed the
power
balance.
Developers have access to the mobile market without getting first
an operator's blessing. New players now have
the capacity to influence the market.

8. Mobile Apps
and
Smartphones
will drive growth
in
2009.
Apple's AppStore now has over 25,000 downloadable applications and
will become a $1B business by the end of 2009. Palm, RIM, Nokia,
Windows and Android announced app stores for 2009.

9. New
players will
benefit
from new
opportunities.
Traditional infrastructure vendors will struggle through the recession
but 2009 will be a big year with opportunities
for Smartphones and Mobile Applications.

10. Apple
changed
the rules
of the
game.
Operators, technology vendors, content providers and handset
vendors will now have to play by these rules,
whether they like it or not.

11. quot;Despite the economic environment, we grew revenues in 2008,
and I expect 2009 will be another year of overall revenue
growth and solid progress for our company,quot;

12. Raul Castanon, MBA
http://telcolatam.blogspot.com/
http://www.linkedin.com/in/rcastanon