dearth of tools to quantitatively analyse HR performance. effort to bridge the gap.

1. Facilitator: Mr. Raza Kamal, Director, College of Management Sciences, PAF-KIET. WORKSHOP ON QUANTITATIVE TOOLS FOR HR MANAGERS Tuesday - 05 th Aug, 2008. Institute of Bankers, Pakistan.

2. OBJECTIVE OF THE WORKSHOP To enhance the effectiveness of HR managers through the use of quantitative tools which will also enable them to benchmark their own results against other organizations

6. The most effective employee of work units are those providing the highest possible quantity and quality of work at the lowest cost and in the most timely fashion with the minimum of supervision and with a maximum of positive impact on workers, organizational units and clients/customer population PHILOSOPHY OF HRM

7. RECRUITMENT AND SELECTION

8. MOST IMPORTANT SELECTION METHODS 148 / 100 17 32 35 1 15 Second most important method (%) 96/ 100 45 20 35 0 0 Third most important method(%) 178 / 100 0 5 3 7 85 Most important selection method (%) N / % References Application Form Psychology Tests Assessment Center Interview

9. USE OF SELECTION TESTS BY EMPLOYEE GROUPS 19 29 20 Graduate 5 5 6 Professional/Technical 14 50 29 Managerial / Senior Managerial 100 (174) 100 (136) 100 (115) N 43 15 31 Clerical 19 1 14 Manual Literacy / Numeracy Tests (%) Personality Tests (%) Cognitive Tests (%) Employee group

11. Measure all job applications on attribute Hire some applicants and reject others Wait for some time period Measure all newly hired job incumbents’ performance Obtain correlation between these two sets of numbers Predictive Validation Concurrent Validation GRAPHIC DEPICTION OF CONCURRENT AND PREDICTIVE VALIDATION DESIGNS Measure all current job incumbents on attribute Measure all current job incumbents’ performance Obtain correlation between these two sets of numbers

12. ACCURACY OF SELECTION METHODS PREDICTED VALIDITY PERFECT PREDICTION ASSESSMENT CENTRES (PROMOTION) ABILITY TESTS PERSONALITY TESTS (COMBINATION) BIODATA STRUCTURED INTERVIEWS TYPICAL INTERVIEWS REFERENCES ASTROLOGY READING HANDS 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0h CHANCE PREDICTION

15. INCREASING VALIDITY OF INTERVIEW *0 = not necessary on the job 1 = useful on the job 2 = essential to the job Ne – N / 2 CVR = N / 2 CVR item 1 = (0 – 2) / 2 = - 1.0 delete item CVR item 2 = (4 – 2) / 2 = 1.0 retain item CVR item 3 = (1 – 2) / 2 = - 0.5 delete item CVR item 4 = (2 – 2) / 2 = 0.0 delete item CVR item 5 = (4 – 2) / 2 = 1.0 retain item CVR for retained items (1.0 + 1.0) / 2 = 1 Content Validity Index (CVI) = average of CVRs. 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 2 2 4 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 Judge 4 Judge 3 Judge 2 Judge 1 TEST ITEMS

16. TABLE 11.3:REQUIRED LEVEL OF CONTENT VALIDATION RATIO TO REACH STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE AS A FUNCTION OF THE NUMBER OF JUDGES. .49 15 .75 8 Required Content Validation Ratio Number of Judges .99 5 .33 30 .62 10

18. FIRM STRATEGY-HUMAN RESOURCE STRATEGY RELATIONSHIP Firm Strategy Human Resource Strategy Growth/Expansion Retrenchment Diversification Mergers, Acquisitions Differentiation Low-Cost Producer Luxury/High Quality Aggressive Hiring, Training, Promotions Layoffs, Terminations, Early Retirement New Corporate Staff Configuration, Promotions, Training, Hiring Corporate Acculturation, Hiring or Laying Off Staff Reconfiguration, Layoffs, Reassignments Decentralized Hiring and Training Cost Reduction, Wage Cuts, Efficiency Improvements Hiring Highly Skilled Personnel, Training, Special Compensation Plans Divestitures

19. YIELD RATIO

20. Joined : 20 : 10 yR = 2 : 1 Offered : 50 : 20 yR : 5 : 2 Interview 100 : 50 yR = 2 : 1 Tested : 200 : 100 yR = 2 : 1 Short listed 2000 : 200 yR = 10 : 1 YIELD RATIO

21. $90,000 $20,000 $15,000 $50,000 $30,000 Cost $8000 5% 25/500 50% 25 12% 50 80% 400 500 Newspaper Ad 15 35 10 90 Accept employment offers 79% 88% 11% 90% Yield ratio 15/20 35/50 10/400 90/200 Cumulative 75% 70% 3% 45% Yield ratio $333 57% 100 87% 175 200 Local University $6,000 95% 19 100% 20 20 Executive Search Firms Renowned University $5,000 95% 95 25% 100 400 $428 Cost per hire 40 Judged acceptable 45 Interview offers accepted Employee Referrals 50 Resumes generated 89% Yield ratio 90% Yield ratio Table 10.4: Hypothetical Yield Ratio for Five Different Recruitment Sources

22. JOB SATISFACTION

23. THE WORK RELATIONSHIPS PROCEDURAL TECHNICAL ASPECTS ASPECTS Task variety Feedback Autonomy JOB Clarity and meaningfulness of goals Organization DepartmentBoss EXPECTATIONS Aspirations Self-concept Self-esteem and efficacy Satisfaction and Skill variety Achievement and utilization FORMAL INFORMAL Structural Social contacts Design Peer group Quality of management INDIVIDUALS’ NEEDS Job design-a more holistic approach

24. Low absenteeism and staff turnover Critical Psychological State Personal and Work Out comes High-quality work performance Core Job Dimensions Knowledge of the actual results of the work activities Feedback High satisfaction with the work Experienced responsibility for outcomes of the work Autonomy CORE DIMENSIONS OF THE JOB Experienced meaningfulness of the work High internal work motivation Task significance Task identity Skill variety

25. MANPOWER PLANNING

26. TRANSITION MATRIX (MARKOV ANALYSIS) 60% (s) Clerk I I 80% (s) Clerk I Clerk II Clerk I 1995 1997

27. TRANSITION MATRIX (MARKOV ANALYSIS) 30% 10% Left Organization 10% demoted 80% stayed Clerk I 100% 60% (s) Clerk I I 100% 10% promoted Clerk I Total Clerk II 1995 1997

28. MARKOV ANALYSIS .05 .9 .05 0 0 GRADE-1 .1 .05 .75 .1 0 GRADE-2 .05 0 .1 .8 .05 GRADE-3 .2 0 0 .1 .7 GRADE-4 EXIT 1 2 3 4 CATEGORY 0 +3 +5 69 VACANT POSITIONS 61 20 43 125 181 TOTAL 18 1 0 0 GRADE-1 4 2 30 4 0 GRADE-2 6 0 12 96 6 GRADE-3 50 0 0 25 175 GRADE-4 0 20 40 120 250 STAFFING REQUIREMENT

29. A HYPOTHETICAL TRANSITIONAL MATRIX FOR AN AUTO PARTS MANUFACTURER .70 .30 7. Clerical .00 .20 .50 .00 .10 .20 .30 8..Not in organization .05 .60 .35 2. Sales representative .90 .05 .05 4. Assistant plant manager .10 .80 .10 6. Production assembler .10 .75 .15 5. Production manager .20 .50 .30 3. Sales apprentice .95 .05 1. Sales manager 1996 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1993

31. OPTIONS FOR REDUCING AN EXPECTED LABOR SURPLUS Low Low Low Moderate Moderate High High High Human Suffering Slow Natural attrition Slow Retraining Fast Pay reductions Fast Transfers Slow Retirement Fast Work sharing Fast Demotions Fast Downsizing Speed Option

32. OPTIONS FOR AVOIDING AN EXPECTED LABOR SHORTAGE Low Low Moderate High High High High Human Suffering Slow Technological innovation Fast Temporary employees Slow Retrained Transfers Slow New external hires Slow Turnover reductions Fast Outsourcing Fast Overtime Speed Option

33. TABLE 24.1: SURVIVAL RATE ANALYSIS 50% 100 21 19 23 17 20 Year 5 62% 125 26 24 30 19 26 Year 3 23 30 36 42 E 110 142 167 200 TOTAL 55% 71% 83% 100% Average survival rate 38 48 32 40 Original strength 22 25 18 22 Year 4 Number surviving to end of year after engagement 32 39 25 35 Year 1 33 C 28 A Entry Cohort Year 2 27 D 24 B

34. PROGRAMME PLANNING OPTIONS Do not replace employees who leave Offer incentives for early retirement Transfer or re-assign excess employees Use slack time for employees training or equipment maintenance Reduce work hours Lay-off employees If a surplus of employees is expected …. Hire new full-time employees Offer incentives for postponing retirement Re-hire retired employees on part-time basis Attempt to reduce turnover Bring in overtime for present staff Subcontract work to another company Hire temporary employees Re-engineer to reduce needs. If a shortage of employees is expected ….

36. SEPARATION COSTS 1.Exit interview = cost for salary and benefits of both interviewer and departing employee during the exit interview. 2. Administrative and record keeping action

37. REPLACEMENT COSTS 1 Advertising for job opening. 2 Pre-employment administrative functions and record keeping action. 3 Selection interview. 4 Employment tests. 5 Final Meeting.

38. TRAINING COSTS 1 Booklets, manuals and reports. 2 Training & Education 3 Trainer Cost 4 Salary and benefits of a new employee during training

39. SOURCE COST PER RECRUIT SC/R =AC = AF + NC / R Where AC = advertising costs, total monthly expenditure AF=agency fees, total for the month NC=no-cost applicants, walk-in, non profit agencies etc R=total recruits

40. COSTING EMPLOYEE BEHAVIORS 150 = .10 x 1,500 Payoff, Option 4 (Flexible hours) 200 = .10 x 2,000 Payoff, Option 3 (Benefits package) 600 = .20 x 3,000 Payoff, Option 2 (Career tracks) $3,000 = .60 x $5,000 Payoff, Option 1(Raisewages) (Costs Saved) Payout Probability Effect

41. COSTING EMPLOYEE BEHAVIORS .05 150 3,000 4 .05 200 4,000 3 .12 600 5,000 2 .30 $3,000 $10,000 1 Cost / Benefit Ratio Annual Payout (Benefit) Annual Cost Option

42. COMMENTS ENCOURAGED

43. CONCLUSION When an archer misses the mark, he turns and looks for the fault within himself. Failure to hit the bull’s eye is never the fault of the target. To improve your aim- improve yourself.