Traffic and Health

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  • Great presentation. Of course, loss of life here is the average and some groups - notably those in poverty - will likely have a greater loss of life than others - at least in the UK.
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  • this study (IIASA is located near Vienna, Austria) indicates the realtvely greater impact of higher indisytrial pollution in and around eastern Germany, Hungary and Czechoslavakia where premature deaths occur some 1-3 years earlier than in Scandinavia Spain or Ireland
  • Note that both PM and Ozone is above standard in southwestern Ontario and near Montreal with Ozone above standard near Ottawa note also that Vancouver (and BC) the Prairies except for Edmonton and the Maritimes except for Saint John New Brunswick are below standards
  • A detailed list of generic interventions was prepared for the NERAM 2005 Mexico colloquium and is a distillation of many similar lists from around the world – the colloquium did not find any intervention that did not fit into one category or another. A simplified version is provided here. It looks at global, regional and local sources which are both a class of government intervention possibility as well as the general structure of the source apportionment analysis modes which happen to have a similar structure. On the other dimension are fixed, mobile, and area sources – a classification which has proved useful in formulating policy interventions. For example, the province of Ontario is just implementing new policy on Point of impingement values of pollutants – regulation of a local fixed source, the bottom left box in this table.
  • Pyramid of health effects illustrates that as the severity of the adverse health effect decreases, a larger portion of the population is affected We likely need to rely on severe adverse outcomes (mortality and hospitalization) because administrative records are most reliable and available One approach is to examine non-traumatic morbidity/mortality in the community and use risk coefficients from the literature to estimate what proportion is attributable to air pollution Another approach is to examine local exposures to air pollution and do a quantitative risk assessment (gives predicted risk)
  • Many questions are possible, only a few illustrated here Are cost-effective analysis tools currently available or could they be created to be able to assess the health benefits of various policy options? If we could introduce this type of information at the local level, it could help influence policy in a positive way Currently, analysis of health benefits of policy options is not common at the local level

Transcript

  • 1. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months ] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies “ The RAINS model:Modelling of health impacts of PM and ozone” Markus Amann (IIASA) 2000 2010 2020
  • 2. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
  • 3. Fine Particles and Ozone in Canada: A Canada-wide Standards Perspective-2003 National Summary (Env Canada-Oct 2005) http://www.ccme.ca/assets/pdf/2003_pm_oz_ntnlsmryrpt_e.pdf
  • 4. Emissions Density (2000) tons/km2
  • 5. PM 2.5 Monitoring Stations 2003
  • 6. Days with PM 2.5 above 30 micro grams/m3
  • 7. Ozone concentrations (ppb) 2003 ref:Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators, StatsCan 2005 http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/16-251-XIE/16-251-XIE2005000.htm
  • 8.
    • Notes:
    • 1. Monica Campbell, Ph.D., David Pengelly, Ph.D., and Monica Bienefeld, M.HSc., Air Pollution Burden of Illness in Toronto: 2004 Summary , (Toronto: City of Toronto, 2004).
    • 2. John M. Peters, Epidemiologic Investigation to Identify Chronic Effects of Ambient Air Pollutants in Southern California, (California Air Resources Board, 2004).
    • 3. C.A. Pope, R. Burnett, M. Thun, E. Calle, D. Krewski, K. Ito and G. Thurston, “Lung Cancer Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution”, Journal of the American Medical Association (March 2002).
    • 4. Ontario Medical Association, The Illness Costs of Air Pollution in Ontario 2005 , (OMA: 2005).
    • 5. Monica Campbell, Ph.D., David Pengelly, Ph.D., and Monica Bienefeld, M.HSc., Air Pollution Burden of Illness in Toronto: 2004 Summary , (Toronto: City of Toronto, 2004), p. 3. See also Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Air Quality in Ontario: 2003 Report (Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2004).
    • Ref: www.torontoenvironment.org/files/Smog_Rep_05.pdf
  • 9. The New Toronto Air Quality Management Strategy TORONTO ENVIRONMENTAL ALLIANCE Comments http://www.torontoenvironment.org/files/Smog_Rep_05.pdf
    • a plan to develop a plan to fight smog and climate change.
    • The draft Strategy is more laundry-list than comprehensive plan to achieve clean air and climate change objectives.
    • City Council committed itself to developing a Comprehensive Air Quality Strategy in April 2000.
    • In January 2005, city staff released a plan for developing this strategy that focused primarily on better data information and analysis, monitoring and evaluation , and appeals for other jurisdictions to take action.
    • No new actions by the City were anticipated prior to 2008.
    • the Board of Health have requested staff to bring forward new measures in 2006 and 2007. There is still a danger, however, of developing a laundry-list of initiatives which don’t add up to a comprehensive plan to meet clear targets.
    • resultant management framework could focus on what are the cheapest things to do (i.e. a relatively narrow range of actions) rather than on how we can do what is necessary to meet clean air and climate change objectives.
    • would entail a much broader range of actions that will have to go beyond what the City does within its own operations to engage Toronto residents and businesses in taking action as well through new building and retrofit codes, transportation and energy planning and service delivery, incentives, and penalties .
    • promising work being done on the Transit City initiative, Green Development Standards and the Better Buildings New Construction Program , but these will have to go beyond pilot projects and become embedded in the way Toronto transforms itself over the next twenty years
  • 10. PM10 Study in Europe Lancet Medical Journal - September 2, 2000
    • ~6% of all deaths from PM10 ~6% of all deaths from PM10
    • ~40,000 deaths per year in Austria, France, Switzerland;
    • 2 times traffic fatalities Switzerland; 2 times traffic fatalities
    • Motor Vehicles responsible for ~50% Motor Vehicles responsible for ~50%
    • People in Cities die about 18 months earlier than they would otherwise
    • over 300,000 cases of chronic bronchitis; 500,000 asthma attacks;
    • 16 million lost person days of activity person days of activity
    • Health costs from pollution from traffic Health costs from pollution
    • ~1.7% of total GDP ~1.7% of total GDP
  • 11. Global Trends in On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions (Normalized to 1990) -OECD Ref: Understanding Urban Air Pollution and the Role of Diesel Exhaust Delhi, India - November 6-11 2000 2 Trends of Vehicles and Air Pollution
  • 12. Global Trends in On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions (Normalized to 1990) -non OECD Ref: Understanding Urban Air Pollution and the Role of Diesel Exhaust Delhi, India - November 6-11 2000 2 Trends of Vehicles and Air Pollution
  • 13. Global Trends in On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions (Normalized to 1990) Ref: Understanding Urban Air Pollution and the Role of Diesel Exhaust Delhi, India - November 6-11 2000 2 Trends of Vehicles and Air Pollution
  • 14. Principal causes of air pollution from motor vehicles Ref: page 38, AIR POLLUTION FROM GROUND TRANSPORTATION AN ASSESSMENT OF CAUSES, STRATEGIES AND TACTICS, AND PROPOSED ACTIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY by Roger Gorham (2002) http://www.un.org/esa/gite/csd/gorham.pdf
    • (a) excessive vehicle use (especially in urban areas );- In the United States, measures focused on high occupancy vehicles (HOV) have generally proved ineffective; ideas to “variabilize“ car costs include pay-as-you-drive automobile insurance, cash-out of free parking (for example at the workplace), road pricing and car-sharing schemes,
    • (b) the persistence of old and outdated technology in the vehicle fleet;
    • (c) poor maintenance of the vehicles in use; - a recent World Bank strategy review suggested a rough rule-of-thumb ratio of 20:80 (20 per cent of vehicles produce 80 per cent of emissions)
    • (d) unavailability or improper use of appropriate fuels; and
    • (e) the atmospheric, topographic and climatological aspects of metropolitan areas where pollution is concentrated
  • 15. Mode Split Trends (1970- present) Ref: The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be - Changing Trends And Their Implications For Transport Planning -10 January 2008 Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute www.vtpi.org
  • 16. Figure II.2. Pathway from transport emission to health effect AIR POLLUTION FROM GROUND TRANSPORTATION AN ASSESSMENT OF CAUSES, STRATEGIES AND TACTICS, AND PROPOSED ACTIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY by Roger Gorham (2002)
  • 17.  
  • 18. Diurnal Fluctuation in Hourly Pollutant Levels Ref: Air Pollution and Physical Activity: Examination of Toronto Air Data to Guide Public Advice on Smog and Exercise - Dr. Sheela V. Basrur, Medical Officer of Health, June 2003 http://www.toronto.ca/health/hphe/pdf/air_pollution_and_exercise_technical.pdf
  • 19. Figure III.3. Car penetration levels at given levels of per capita wealth (per 1,000 persons) from Gorham (2002)
  • 20. Figure III.5. Annual car use at given levels of per capita wealth (Cars and light trucks) from Gorham (2002)
  • 21. Influence of Weather and Air Pollution on Mortality in Toronto: Summary Report (June 2005) by Dr David McKeown, Medical Officer of Health, Toronto (coauthors: McMaster University Dept. Medicine, Health Canada, Environment Canada) http://www.toronto.ca/health/hphe/pdf/weather_air_pollution_summary_june_2005.pdf
    • Heat“alerts” and associated hot-weather mortality
    • The climate change models project a fourfold increase in the number of hot weather warnings by the 2080s, which if not responded to could lead to a tripling of heat-related deaths from 120 to 360 per year.
    • On the other hand, cold related mortality could decrease from 105 to 35 per year.
    • Air pollution-related elevated mortality
    • Climate change models project from 25% (no change in pollutant emission) to 30% (32% increase in emission) increase in acute air pollution-related mortality by the 2080s for Toronto; going from current levels of 822 to 1070 per year.
  • 22. Influence of Weather and Air Pollution on Mortality in Toronto
  • 23. PLANYC 2030- Mobility http://tinyurl.com/8vaoz5
  • 24. Fig. 4 Within-weathergroup air pollution prediction model R 2 values for daily mean concentrations Ref: A Synoptic Climatological Approach to Assess Climatic Impact on Air Quality in South-central Canada. Part I: Historical Analysis Chad Shouquan Cheng & Monica Campbell & Qian Li & Guilong Li & Heather Auld & Nancy Day & David Pengelly & Sarah Gingrich & David Yap Water Air Soil Pollut (2007) 182:131 – 148 DOI 10.1007/s11270-006-9327-3 http://tinyurl.com/8ofhww
    • Percentage occurrences of the eight weather
    • groups [hot, cold, five pollutant-related]
  • 25. Ref: Ch 7. Environmental Management by Jane Kinniburgh “An Introduction to Pollution Science” By Roy M. Harrison Published by Royal Society of Chemistry, 2006, 332 pages http://books.google.ca/books?id=_1MgqvQzZwoC&printsec=frontcover
  • 26. Illness Costs of Air Pollution 2005-2026 Health & Economic Damage Estimates by Ontario Medical Association, June 2005 http://www.oma.org/Health/smog/report/ICAP2005_Report.pdf
    • new estimate for smog-related premature mortality is 5,800 deaths annually .
    • - greater than the 1,900 estimated in ICAP 2000, based strictly on time-series studies and included risks for coarse smog particles (PM10) only.
    • - now have clear scientific evidence of premature deaths for a number of other pollutants i.e., ozone (O3) sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO)
    • most significant change though is reliable cohort-based studies for PM2.5 which show the premature deaths from the long-term effects of exposure. Although for the purposes of presentation we have added the short-term and long-term smog deaths together, they are quite different. The approximately 4,000 additional deaths for which smog is a factor are the result of a lifetime of exposure and the cumulative effects of smog on our bodies.
    • Economic Damages. ICAP provides estimates of economic damages according to four major categories, namely, Lost productivity,  Healthcare costs, Pain and suffering, Loss of life
    • In 2005, overall economic losses associated with air pollution exposure are expected to be in the order of $7.8 billion . This total is expected to increase to over $12.9 billion by 2026
  • 27. Illness Costs of Air Pollution Ottawa-Carleton RM Premature Deaths = 290 (490 in 2026) Hospital Admissions = 750 (1,070 in 2026) Emergency Visits = 3,010 (4,360 in 2026) Minor Illness Days = 1.43 M Health Care Costs = $ 25.75 M Lost Productivity Costs = $ 18.3 M Ontario Medical Association Illness Costs of Air Pollution (ICAP) - Regional Data for 2005(with projections to 2026) http://www.oma.org/phealth/ICAP2005regional.pdf
  • 28. Air Quality Standards in Canada: Process and Scientific Basis for the PM2.5 Canada-Wide Standard Mark Raizenne, Health Canada – May 2002 Symposium on Air Pollution and Public Health http://www.mddep.gouv.qc.ca/air/symposium/sympo-actes-detail-en.pdf
    • On June 5-6, 2000, all federal, provincial and territorial governments (except Québec) agreed to a new air quality standard (CWS) for PM2.5. The new CWS for PM2.5 is 30 μg/m3 (24-hour averaging time) to be achieved by year 2010.
    • On June 10, 2000, PM10 was also declared toxic and added to the List of Toxic Substances under federal legislation (CEPA 1999).
    • On July 15, 2000, the federal government published a Notice of Intent to recommend that the precursors of PM10 be declared toxic under CEPA, a mandatory step through CEPA when secondary pollutants are declared toxic.
    • These legislative declarations enable regulatory development and other initiatives to be undertaken under federal legislation. Provincial governments each undertake approaches consistent with normal practices in each jurisdiction. Actions are co-ordinated to the extent possible between federal and provincial authorities.
  • 29. Ottawa Air Quality Index
  • 30.  
  • 31. Downtown NOx concentrations
    • Peak hour pollution lasts 4 hours or less
    • Three-hour running average smoothes traffic effect
  • 32. Downtown NOx concentrations
    • Peak hour pollution lasts 4 hours or less
    • Three-hour running average smoothes traffic effect
  • 33. “ Geographies of Susceptibility and Exposure in the City: Environmental Inequity of Traffic-Related Air Pollution in Toronto" by Michael Buzzell, The University of Western Ontario and Michael Jerrett, University of California, Berkeley Ref: http://geography.ssc.uwo.ca/faculty/buzzelli/publications/BUZZELLI-final.pdf
    • " Transportation has become one of the largest source of criteria (health hazardous) pollutants with links to health effects, especially in large city-regions, and the relative contribution of emissions from traffic has increased compared to point sources which have tended to decline over the past two decades"
    • "regulatory air pollution monitoring likely significantly under-estimates the range and spatial heterogeneity of ambient NO and air pollution generally."
  • 34. "A Cohort Study of Traffic-related Air Pollution and Mortality in Toronto, Canada" Michael Jerrett, Murray M. Finkelstein, Jeffrey R. Brook, M. Altaf Arain, Palvos Kanaroglou, Dave M. Stieb, Nicholas L. Gilbert, Dave Verma, Norm Finkelstein, Kenneth R. Chapman, and Malcolm R. Sears http://www.ehponline.org/members/2009/11533/11533.pdf
  • 35. "A Cohort Study of Traffic-related Air Pollution and Mortality in Toronto, Canada" Michael Jerrett, Murray M. Finkelstein, Jeffrey R. Brook, M. Altaf Arain, Palvos Kanaroglou, Dave M. Stieb, Nicholas L. Gilbert, Dave Verma, Norm Finkelstein, Kenneth R. Chapman, and Malcolm R. Sears http://www.ehponline.org/members/2009/11533/11533.pdf
    • "the relative risk of death from all causes increased by 17 per cent for those who lived in areas where nitrogen dioxide was highest, and by 40 per cent for death from heart disease and stroke."
    • NO2 concentrations:
    • Average: 20 ppb
    • Max: 60 ppb
  • 36. Transportation Impact on NO 2 MAPPING SMALL SCALE AIR POLLUTION DISTRIBUTION USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS IN A LARGE CANADIAN CITY Natividad Urquizo; D. Spitzer; W. Pugsley and M. Robinson http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/149088.pdf NO 2 > 50ppb 2007-12-10 - 2007-12-12
  • 37. Ref MicroFac - A New Microscale Motor Vehicle Emission Model: Determination of Neighbourhood Air Pollution for Human Exposure Assessment Rakesh Singh and James Sloan David Roewade Waterloo Centre for Atmospheric Sciences Public Health Planner (Environments) University of Waterloo Region of Waterloo Public Health http://www.irr-neram.ca/about/May%2019%20Workshop/Singh%20poster.pdf
  • 38. Vehicle Emissions www.queenswaycoalition.org/airquality.html
    • The map at right is from the City of Ottawa's EMME/2 tool using 1995 traffic data. It shows the daily emissions per roadway for the Ottawa-Gatineau area. The volume of emissions on a road is represented by the thickness of the line. The Queensway is easily identified as the thickest line on the map (running roughly diagonally from the lower left to upper right). The next biggest segment is all of the roads in the centretown core seen as a solid black square just above the Queensway where it is thickest. The reason the Queensway and downtown produce the highest volume of emissions is because of traffic volume and congestion.
  • 39. Total Emissions Ref : (Health Canada 2008) Human Health in a Changing Climate: A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity Page 146 http://tiny.cc/2SZgn
  • 40. NOx Emissions at PM Peak Hour Development of a Methodology for Estimating Vehicle Emissions Jennifer Armstrong (2000)- Civil & Environmental Eng http://http-server.carleton.ca/~dkarman/82571/Defense4.ppt
  • 41. Major Origin-Destination Flows – Morning Trips 2005 Ref:http://tinyurl.com/6vlrcf
  • 42. Relative Exposure Concentration of PM and Influence of traffic http:// tinyurl .com/258hql
    • Shows 24 hour traffic generated exposure for PM2.5
    • Thin lines show additions from regional background (bottom), urban ambient and peaks in traffic (top)
    • Exposure while commuting represents half of exposure to PM from traffic
    • Ref: Health Exposure to Transport-related Air Pollution by E. Sanderson, D. Briggs et al (2005)
  • 43. Transportation Pollutants Ref: The Economic Case for Carfree Development by Gus Yates http://www.carfreecity.us/portal_skins/static/carfree%20economics.ppt
  • 44. Transport and land use features of the Greater Toronto Area, by distance from the urban core, 2001 http://tinyurl.com/bgr23
  • 45. Sustainable Transportation
  • 46. Emission Offset Credits Ref: The Economic Case for Carfree Development by Gus Yates
    • Economic value of reduced emissions:
    • ($ per household per year)
    • NOx $320
    • ROG $54
    • CO2 $15
    • $1.3 million per year for a carfree district
  • 47. Internalizing Net Benefits Ref: The Economic Case for Carfree Development by Gus Yates
    • Benefit: Air pollution and global warming
    • Naturally accrues to:
      • Residents
      • City or county
      • World
    • Internalization methods:
    • Payments to developer from Air Resources Board for mobile source emission reduction
    • Payments to developer from carbon offset credits sold on Chicago Climate Exchange
  • 48. Traffic in Alta Vista www.queenswaycoalition.org/congestionmap.html
    • The animation shows a roadway in the corridor. It also shows where the traffic coming from Conroy and Walkley would go as a result of congestion at the Nicholas Queensway interchange.
    • The darkest red shows the roads (Riverside, Main and Alta Vista) which will be operating at a Level of Service considered failing by the City. This means congestion to the point of stop and go traffic and hence more pollution. This traffic forecast is based on computer-based simulation of the morning rush hour.
    • This traffic study was done using a computer based model which simulates over 10,000 individual cars traversing the major arterials in the area surrounding the Alta Vista Corridor. Individual road capacities and the traffic mix (balance of sources and destinations) were set based on existing conditions as published by Delcan in their Existing Conditions Report from 2002 which included both AM and PM rush hours.
  • 49. Alta Vista P.M. Peak Hour Traffic Volumes (2002)
  • 50. Alta Vista A.M. Peak Hour Traffic Volumes (2002)
  • 51. Traffic Density vs Pollutant Level Ref: Air Pollution and Physical Activity: Examination of Toronto Air Data to Guide Public Advice on Smog and Exercise - Dr. Sheela V. Basrur, Medical Officer of Health, June 2003 http://www.toronto.ca/health/hphe/pdf/air_pollution_and_exercise_technical.pdf
    • average hourly CO and NO2 concentrations are much lower in low traffic areas (such as beside a residential street) compared with high traffic areas (such as beside main streets and major arterial roads).
    • In contrast, the concentration of ozone is lowest in high traffic areas, due to the quenching effect of the large amounts of nitric oxide (NO) emitted directly from vehicles that reduce ozone levels.
  • 52. Traffic erodes our sense of place, and with it a sense of personal identity with our surroundings. The loss of home territory was illustrated by a study conducted in 1970 by Donald Appleyard http://www.best.bc.ca/_etc/streets/guidebook/sectionA.pdf.
  • 53. PROXIMITY TO TRAFFIC and ROADSIDE AIR QUALITY Figure 3-6 Examples of high level zones around major transport infrastructure For each of the four defined activity levels (A1-4), four ‘high level’ distances (50%, 10%, 5%, 1% of target values) have been calculated for air quality page 40 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/transport/pdf/final_report_main.pdf
  • 54. Figure 3-7 Model calculation of road traffic contribution to NO2 concentrations as a function of the distance from a road for different activity levels (3-90 million vehicles/ year) as % of NO2 quality standard (40μg/m3) Ref: (European Commission 2006) Development of a methodology to assess population exposed to high levels of noise and air pollution close to major transport infrastructure - page 43 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/transport/pdf/final_report_main.pdf
  • 55. Traffic circles are small and are used to calm traffic rather than to preserve capacity and maintain traffic flow
  • 56. The many types of Complete Streets http://www.completestreets.org/completestreets/Complete.ppt
  • 57. Health Effects of Air Pollution (respiratory /cardio diseases 24% of hospital visits and 46% of deaths) http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/ewh-semt/air/out-ext/effe/health_effects-effets_sante_e.html#7
  • 58. Generic Policy Interventions Checklist http://www.irr-neram.ca/about/May%2019%20Workshop/Barclay_framework_upd.ppt
  • 59. Air Quality Policy – National Perspective Peggy Farnsworth, Director, Transboundary Air Issues Branch, Environment Canada http://www.irr-neram.ca/about/May%2019%20Workshop/Peggy%20Farnsworth%20talk.pdf
  • 60. Ontario Air Quality Criteria (1999) AIR POLLUTION BURDEN OF ILLNESS IN TORONTO Dr. Sheela V. Basrur, Medical Officer of Health, May 2000 http://www.toronto.ca/health/burdenof.pdf Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) greatest adverse impact on human health, responsible for 40% of air-related premature mortality and 60% of cardiorespiratory admissions to hospital, despite NO2 levels many times lower than the existing air quality criterion. NO2 should be given high priority for regulatory review and exposure reduction measures. The transportation sector, especially cars, is a major source of NO2. Carbon monoxide (CO) responsible for 30% of premature mortality due to air pollution, though CO levels well below Ontario’s current air quality criterion of 13 ppm (8-hour). Transportation sector is the major source of CO . Sulphur dioxide (SO2), although well below Ontario’s air quality criterion, is still substantial morbidity and mortality associated with ambient levels in the city - about 120 premature deaths and 170 respiratory hospital admissions each year Inhalable particulates (PM10) are responsible for a substantial burden of illness in Toronto. Close to 20% of the air pollution-related premature mortality and cardiorespiratory hospitalizations due to the six common air pollutants were attributable to PM10. Full compliance with the existing Ontario criterion for PM10 (50 ug/m3), would avert only about 3 premature deaths and 7 respiratory hospital admissions.
  • 61. Alta Vista Transportation Corridor Alternatives Assessment: Health Risks from Air Pollution Emissions Prepared by DSS Management Consultants Inc. December 16, 2003
    • 2.1.1. Absolute Magnitude of Forecast Health Risks
    • With all of the transportation alternatives associated with the Alta Vista corridor, the following absolute magnitude of health outcomes can be expected annually: about two premature deaths,one additional hospitalization, less than one emergency room visit and 35,000 to 45,000 minor illnesses. By 2021, these impacts increase by about 50%. These results demonstrate that the primary health effects associated with the transportation alternatives under consideration are premature deaths and minor illnesses. Increases in hospitalizations and emergency room visits are less significant.  
    • Scenario Avoided Health Impact
    • Number (% Impact) 2003 Impact 2003-2021 Accumulated
    • 1 Do nothing 0% $ 9.9M $ 163.6 M
    • 2 Two lane 0% $ 9.9 M $ 163.6 M
    • 3 Two +two lane 8% $ 9.1 M $ 150.5 M
    • 4 Four lane 8% $ 9.1 M $ 150.5 M
    • 5 Arterial 21% $ 7.8 M $ 129.2 M
    • 6 Arterial +collector 16% $ 8.3 M $ 137.4 M
    •  
    • 2.2.1. Absolute Magnitude of Forecast Damages
    • Estimated total annual economic damages in 2003 for all forecast air pollution-related health outcomes
    • range from a low of $7.8 million with Scenario #5 to a high of $9.9 million with Scenarios #1 and #2. The range in 2021 is from $10.2 million to $13.0 million.
  • 62. Recent Decisions by City Standing Committees
    • Health, Recreation, and Social Services Committee - Disposition 29 - 19 January 2006
    • That the Public Health Department prepare a concept plan document during 2006 for the possibilities of measuring air quality and outline some proposals for reacting to declining air quality based on the origin of declining air quality conditions.
    • CARRIED, as amended
    • Note : the City’s Planning & Growth Dept proposed an air quality network as a program “enhancement”. This Budget 06 proposal was denied by Council but high level talks are underway to restore it through other means and a solution is expected by March 06
    • b ) Transportation Committee DISPOSITION 27/6 July 2005 (re:2.THE IMPACT OF AIR QUALITY AND PUBLIC HEALTH CRITERIA IN TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS - PLANNING COMMITTEE REQUEST FOR REPORT TO TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE
    • That Public Health measures, including Air Quality , be given appropriate consideration when evaluating alternatives during Environmental Assessments (EAs), even allowing for the possibility of eliminating an alternative on that criteria alone , should the public health risks be deemed sufficiently high.
    • CARRIED
    • Note: this decision/direction was applied to the criteria for evaluation of options for the East West LRT EA in Oct 2005. The project staff and consultants have agreed to include health impacts from pollution and specifically Criteria Air Contaminants . All 56 control points for the existing air quality in the project area have been assessed at a moderate(47 points) or poor level (6 points) – which indicates that a small or significant part of the population is now affected by air pollution.
  • 63. Urban Roads- Master Transportation Plan
  • 64. Annex C – Master Transportation Plan Transportation Performance Objectives and Indicators http://ottawa.ca/city_services/planningzoning/2020/transpo/anx_c_en.shtml
    • Performance Objectives Indicators Period Measurement Target City Influ
    • 1. Limit motor vehicle traffic growth
    • (a) Reduce motor vehicle use
    • per capita Individual automobile use
    • (vehicle-km per capita) Year To be determined TBD Medium
    • Relative growth in PM peak Aggregated key <1.0 Medium
    • traffic volumes screenlines (counts, annual)
    • (% change in volumes
    • / % change in population)
    • ( b) Increase motor vehicle
    • occupancy rates Auto occupancy PM peak a) Aggregated key screenlines (both screenline Low
    • (persons per vehicle)
    • (counts, annual) and city-wide
    • b) City-wide (origindestination
    • survey, every 10 years)
  • 65. Annex C – Master Transportation Plan Transportation Performance Objectives and Indicators (2)
    • 5. Reduce unwanted social and environmental effects
    • Performance Objectives Indicators Period Measurement Target City Influence
    • a) Reduce air emissions from transportation
    • Greenhouse gas emissions from
    • passenger travel (kg per capita) Year City-wide (annual) TBD Medium
    • NOx emissions from passenger travel
    • (kg per capita) Year City-wide (annual) TBD Low to medium
    • (c) Reduce road surface per capita
    • Road surface area (square metres per capita) N/A City-wide (annual) N/A Medium to high
    • 6. Optimize use of existing system
    • a) Increase capacity
    • Transportation system management coverage
    • (% of arterial road traffic signals with
    • real-time optimization measures) N/A City-wide (annual) TBD High
  • 66. Projected Transit and Automobile Travel Demand - City-Wide (Afternoon peak hour)
    • Mode Modal Split Person-Trips
    • (Proportion of person-trips
    • by motorized modes)
    • 2001 2021 2001 2021 Change
    • Transit 17% 30% 37,000 104,000 +181%
    • Automobile 83% 70% 185,000 240,000 +30%
    • Total motorized trips 100% 100% 222,000 344,000 55%
  • 67. Traffic Management Options(1) Win-Win Emission Reductions: Smart Transportation Emission Reduction Strategies Can Achieve Kyoto Targets And Provide Other Economic, Social And Environmental Benefits by Todd Litman www.vtpi.org/wwclimate.pdf
  • 68. Traffic Management Options(2)
  • 69. Traffic Management Options(3)
  • 70. Traffic Management Options(4)
  • 71. Traffic Management Options(5)
  • 72. Table 4 -- PM[10] NATIONAL AIR MONITORING STATION CRITERIA [Approximate Number of Stations per MSA] fn1 http://www.arb.ca.gov/bluebook/bb05/40cfr/40cfrpart58appd.htm
    • Population Category High Medium Low
    • Concentra- Concentra- Concentra-
    • tion fn2 tion fn3 tion fn4
    • >1,000,000 6-10 4-8 2-4
    • 500,000-1,000,000 4-8 2-4 1-2
    • 250,000-500,000 3-4 1-2 0-1
    • 100,000-250,000 1-2 0-1 0
    • fn1 Selection of urban areas and actual number of stations per area will be jointly determined by EPA and the State agency.
    • fn2 High concentration areas are those for which ambient PM[10] data show ambient concentrations exceeding either PM[10] NAAQS by 20 percent or more .
    • fn3 Medium concentration areas are those for which ambient PM[10] data show ambient concentrations exceeding 80 percent of the PM[10] NAAQS .
    • Fn4 Low concentration areas are those for which ambient PM[10] data show ambient concentrations less than 80 percent of the PM[10] NAAQS.
  • 73. How to Deal with Different Health Outcomes? Monica Campbell, Environmental Protection Office, Toronto Public Health http://www.irr-neram.ca/about/May%2019%20Workshop/Monica%20Campbell%20talk.ppt Pyramid of Health Effects Toronto Annual Estimates for Inhalable Particulates (PM 10 ) Premature mortality (acute) 177 Cardiovascular hospitalization 421 Respiratory hospitalizations 597 Adult chronic bronchitis 1,186 Emergency room visits 5,981 Bronchitis in children 11,997 Asthma symptom days 71,930
  • 74. Some Policy Questions of Local Significance Monica Campbell, Environmental Protection Office, Toronto Public Health http://www.irr-neram.ca/about/May%2019%20Workshop/Monica%20Campbell%20talk.ppt
    • How does health burden shift if:
    • Network of surface designated transit lanes introduced?
    • Road congestion pricing is introduced?
    • Bicycle network is created that reduces space for cars?
    • Older vehicles are required to be retrofit or retired?
    • Zoning is changed to reduce urban sprawl?
    • Existing point sources are required to meet health-based air quality standards?
    • Comprehensive energy conservation plan is implemented?
    • Coal-fired power plants are replaced with natural gas?