Evolution of the Private Market - Motley Fool

•

11 likes•8,792 views

Paul Singh

Slides for my talk at @themotelyfool in September 2013.

Technology Economy & Finance Business

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
PAUL SINGH
@paulsingh・paul@dashboard.io・dashboard.io
THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRIVATE MARKET
THE RISE OF THE ANGELS (AND THE ENTREPRENEURS)

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
@paulsingh・paul@dashboard.io・dashboard.io
500 STARTUPS

@paulsingh #startupchile
A (R)EVOLUTION IN THINKING

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
EARLY STAGE
STARTUPS
HAVE CHANGED

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
STARTUP COSTS
LOWER THAN EVERBUT SCALING STILL COSTS MONEY
CLOUD, OPEN SOURCE AND ONLINE DISTRIBUTION DRIVING

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
WEB GETS BIGGER.
WORLD GETS SMALLER.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
TRACTION IS THE NEW
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTYPLATFORMS (SEARCH, SOCIAL & MOBILE) PRIMARILY DRIVING THE CHANGE.
NO LONGER “GOOD ENOUGH” TO DEPEND ON TECH DIFFERENTIATION.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
CAPITAL
INCREASINGLY
COMMODITIZEDRISE OF THE ANGELS, YO!

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
NEW REALITY:
MONEY FOLLOWS
FOUNDERS
RISE OF THE ENTREPRENEURS, YO!

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
SIGNALS ARE
EVERYWHERE
BIG DATA + OPEN SOURCE ANALYTICS = NEW TECHNIQUES FOR VC

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
TRANSPARENCY IS
SIGNALS ARE
EVERYWHEREBIG DATA + OPEN SOURCE ANALYTICS = NEW TECHNIQUES FOR VC

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
WALL STREET
BEAT US TO IT

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
UBS PROPRIETARY
SATELLITE PARKING LOT
FILL RATE ANALYSIS
POINTS TO AN
INTERESTING CADENCE
INTRA-QUARTER AND
POTENTIAL UPSIDE TO
OUR VIEW.
“

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
TWICE A WEEK A SMALL
HELICOPTER CIRCLES
OVER CUSHING’S TANK
FARMS ON AN OIL
INDUSTRY SPYING
MISSION.
“

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
WALL STREET
ISN’T ALONETHESE TECHNIQUES ALREADY USED TO UNDERWRITE IN-VITRO
FERTILIZATION LENDING, PAYDAY LOANS, SUBPRIME AUTO
LENDING, HOME/PERSONAL/AUTO INSURANCE AND MORE.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
WE CAN DO IT, TOOSURPRISE!
IT TURNS OUT,

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
+ “GUT” + TRUSTED MENTORS + MUCH, MUCH MORE DATA.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
WE CAN DO IT, TOO.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
WE’RE DOING IT, TOO.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
VENTURE CAPITAL IS
OPEN TO ATTACK BY
DISRUPTIVE NEW
BUSINESS MODELS AND
TECHNOLOGY.
“
-- NAVAL RAVIKANT (@naval)

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
data.dashboard.io

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
EARLY STAGE VC
IS CHANGING
HAS CHANGED

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
STATE OF THE ART IN EARLY
STAGE INVESTING IS NOT
VERY SOPHISTICATED

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
UNBUNDLING OF
ADVICE, CONTROL
AND MONEY

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
USED TO BE ABOUT
CAPITAL, DEALFLOW
AND JUDGEMENTTODAY, IT’S ABOUT ACCESS.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
(500) CHECKLIST
Product solves a problem for a speciﬁc target customer
Capital-efﬁcient businesses - operational @ <$1M funding
Primarily internet-based distribution - search, social, mobile, local
Simple revenue models - transactions, subscriptions or afﬁliate
Functional prototype before investment (or previous success)
Small but measurable usage - some customers, early revenue
Small but cross-functional team - engineer, design/UX, marketing

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
(NEW) FINANCINGS
Standardized terms
No ﬁxed amounts, no closings, no leads
Continuous, not discrete rounds
Prices beginning to ﬂoat
No Board seats at the earliest stage
Herd mentality and oversubscriptions

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
BY ITS NATURE, THE
INTERNET UNDERMINES
ANYONE WHOSE STATUS
DEPENDS ON
PRIVILEGED ACCESS TO
INFORMATION.
“
-- MICHAEL LEWIS

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
THE PRIVATE MARKET IS
BECOMING MORE
ACCESSIBLE.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
THE PRIVATE MARKET IS
BECOMING MORE
TRANSPARENT.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
Demo DayVideos ⟹ livestream.com/500startups
Sample Pitch Decks ⟹ slideshare.net/500startups
Venture Capital 101 ⟹ venturehacks.com/archives
Investor Thoughts:
Brad Feld ⟹ feld.com
Fred Wilson ⟹ avc.com
Chris Dixon ⟹ cdixon.org
Mark Suster ⟹ bothsidesofthetable.com
angel.co/valuations and angel.co/salaries

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
THE PRIVATE MARKET IS
BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
THE PRIVATE MARKET IS
BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT.
AND, SOON, MORE LIQUID.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
YOUR KEY TAKEAWAYS
Focus on Traction.
Learn to Communicate and Inspire.

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
ALSO...Distribution > Product
Tactics > Strategy
Notability > Credibility
Get on AngelList
Raise 12-18+ months of funding
Learn the basics of VC economics
Don’t confuse due diligence with progress & probability...
Shameless plug: data.dashboard.io

@paulsingh #moneyball4startups
@paulsingh・paul@dashboard.io・dashboard.io
THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRIVATE MARKET
THE RISE OF THE ANGELS (AND THE ENTREPRENEURS)
LEARN MORE:
bit.ly/dashboard-weekly

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Evolution of the Private Market - Motley Fool

1. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups PAUL SINGH @paulsingh・paul@dashboard.io・dashboard.io THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRIVATE MARKET THE RISE OF THE ANGELS (AND THE ENTREPRENEURS)

2. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups @paulsingh・paul@dashboard.io・dashboard.io 500 STARTUPS

3. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups

4. @paulsingh #startupchile A (R)EVOLUTION IN THINKING

5. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups EARLY STAGE STARTUPS HAVE CHANGED

6. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups STARTUP COSTS LOWER THAN EVERBUT SCALING STILL COSTS MONEY CLOUD, OPEN SOURCE AND ONLINE DISTRIBUTION DRIVING

7. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups WEB GETS BIGGER. WORLD GETS SMALLER.

8. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups TRACTION IS THE NEW INTELLECTUAL PROPERTYPLATFORMS (SEARCH, SOCIAL & MOBILE) PRIMARILY DRIVING THE CHANGE. NO LONGER “GOOD ENOUGH” TO DEPEND ON TECH DIFFERENTIATION.

9. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups CAPITAL INCREASINGLY COMMODITIZEDRISE OF THE ANGELS, YO!

10. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups NEW REALITY: MONEY FOLLOWS FOUNDERS RISE OF THE ENTREPRENEURS, YO!

11. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups SIGNALS ARE EVERYWHERE BIG DATA + OPEN SOURCE ANALYTICS = NEW TECHNIQUES FOR VC

12. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups SIGNALS ARE EVERYWHERE BIG DATA + OPEN SOURCE ANALYTICS = NEW TECHNIQUES FOR VC

13. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups TRANSPARENCY IS SIGNALS ARE EVERYWHEREBIG DATA + OPEN SOURCE ANALYTICS = NEW TECHNIQUES FOR VC

14. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups WALL STREET BEAT US TO IT

15. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups

16. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups UBS PROPRIETARY SATELLITE PARKING LOT FILL RATE ANALYSIS POINTS TO AN INTERESTING CADENCE INTRA-QUARTER AND POTENTIAL UPSIDE TO OUR VIEW. “

17. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups

18. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups TWICE A WEEK A SMALL HELICOPTER CIRCLES OVER CUSHING’S TANK FARMS ON AN OIL INDUSTRY SPYING MISSION. “

19. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups WALL STREET ISN’T ALONETHESE TECHNIQUES ALREADY USED TO UNDERWRITE IN-VITRO FERTILIZATION LENDING, PAYDAY LOANS, SUBPRIME AUTO LENDING, HOME/PERSONAL/AUTO INSURANCE AND MORE.

20. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups WE CAN DO IT, TOOSURPRISE! IT TURNS OUT,

21. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups + “GUT” + TRUSTED MENTORS + MUCH, MUCH MORE DATA.

22. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups WE CAN DO IT, TOO.

23. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups WE CAN DO IT, TOO.

24. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups WE’RE DOING IT, TOO.

25. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups

26. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups VENTURE CAPITAL IS OPEN TO ATTACK BY DISRUPTIVE NEW BUSINESS MODELS AND TECHNOLOGY. “ -- NAVAL RAVIKANT (@naval)

27. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups data.dashboard.io

28. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups data.dashboard.io

29. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups EARLY STAGE VC IS CHANGING HAS CHANGED

30. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups STATE OF THE ART IN EARLY STAGE INVESTING IS NOT VERY SOPHISTICATED

31. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups UNBUNDLING OF ADVICE, CONTROL AND MONEY

32. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups USED TO BE ABOUT CAPITAL, DEALFLOW AND JUDGEMENTTODAY, IT’S ABOUT ACCESS.

33. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups

34. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups data.dashboard.io

35. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups (500) CHECKLIST Product solves a problem for a specific target customer Capital-efficient businesses - operational @ <$1M funding Primarily internet-based distribution - search, social, mobile, local Simple revenue models - transactions, subscriptions or affiliate Functional prototype before investment (or previous success) Small but measurable usage - some customers, early revenue Small but cross-functional team - engineer, design/UX, marketing

36. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups (NEW) FINANCINGS Standardized terms No ﬁxed amounts, no closings, no leads Continuous, not discrete rounds Prices beginning to ﬂoat No Board seats at the earliest stage Herd mentality and oversubscriptions

37. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups BY ITS NATURE, THE INTERNET UNDERMINES ANYONE WHOSE STATUS DEPENDS ON PRIVILEGED ACCESS TO INFORMATION. “ -- MICHAEL LEWIS

38. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups THE PRIVATE MARKET IS BECOMING MORE ACCESSIBLE.

39. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups THE PRIVATE MARKET IS BECOMING MORE TRANSPARENT.

40. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups Demo DayVideos ⟹ livestream.com/500startups Sample Pitch Decks ⟹ slideshare.net/500startups Venture Capital 101 ⟹ venturehacks.com/archives Investor Thoughts: Brad Feld ⟹ feld.com Fred Wilson ⟹ avc.com Chris Dixon ⟹ cdixon.org Mark Suster ⟹ bothsidesofthetable.com angel.co/valuations and angel.co/salaries

41. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups data.dashboard.io

42. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups THE PRIVATE MARKET IS BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT.

43. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups THE PRIVATE MARKET IS BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT. AND, SOON, MORE LIQUID.

44. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups YOUR KEY TAKEAWAYS Focus on Traction. Learn to Communicate and Inspire.

45. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups ALSO...Distribution > Product Tactics > Strategy Notability > Credibility Get on AngelList Raise 12-18+ months of funding Learn the basics of VC economics Don’t confuse due diligence with progress & probability... Shameless plug: data.dashboard.io

46. @paulsingh #moneyball4startups @paulsingh・paul@dashboard.io・dashboard.io THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRIVATE MARKET THE RISE OF THE ANGELS (AND THE ENTREPRENEURS) LEARN MORE: bit.ly/dashboard-weekly

Evolution of the Private Market - Motley Fool

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Evolution of the Private Market - Motley Fool