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Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing
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Changing Demographics: The Meaning for Advertising and Marketing

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Joel Cowen, Health Systems Research, offers a review of demographic, social and economic trends in the Rockford area focused on the growth of the "underclass" with discussion of the meaning for …

Joel Cowen, Health Systems Research, offers a review of demographic, social and economic trends in the Rockford area focused on the growth of the "underclass" with discussion of the meaning for retailing, advertising and marketing.

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  • 1. October 16, 2009 Presented to Northern Illinois American Advertising Federation Presented by Health Systems Research 1601 Parkview Avenue Rockford, Illinois 61107 815/395-5639
  • 2.
    • An overview of demographic and social trends in the Rockford area.
    • Population growth
    • Diversity – trends in racial and
    • ethnic composition
    • The economy, income, education
    • and the developing underclass
    • The changing family environment
    • The meaning for advertising and marketing.
  • 3.
    • 2000 Census (2010 Coming!)
    • 2005 – 2007 American Community Survey
    • 2005 American Community Survey
    • Economic indicators
    • Education indicators
    • Social indicators
  • 4.
    • From 2000-2008, Winnebago County’s population growth was similar to the nation, greater than the state, but less than nearby “growth communities.”
    • Area Growth
    • United States 8.0%
    • Illinois 3.9%
    • City of Rockford 4.6%
    • Winnebago County 7.8%
    • Winn. County outside Rockford 11.4%
    • Rockford Park District 6.3%
    • Belvidere 27.1%
    • Loves Park 21.6%
    • Machesney Park 9.9%
    • _______________
    • Source: Census Bureau estimates.
  • 5.
    • Rockford lost its position as Illinois’ second largest city to Aurora in 2002 and several other communities are moving up on us very rapidly.
    City 2008 2000 Change 2000-2008 Rockford (3) 157,272 (2) 150,115 +4.6% Aurora (2) 171,782 (3) 142,990 +20.1% Joliet (4) 146,125 (5) 106,221 +11.5% Naperville (5) 143,117 (4) 128,358 +37.6% Elgin (8) 106,330 (8) 94,487 +12.5% Others: Springfield (6) 117,352, Peoria (7) 114,114
  • 6.
      • Average home price declined from $134,244 (Q1-2007) to $123,145 (Q2-2009), or 8.3%. However, the decline was less than Illinois (-20.5%) and the Chicago Area (-21.3%).
    WINNEBAGO COUNTY HOME SALES Year Q. 1 Q. 2 Q. 3 Q. 4 2009 658 769 2008 837 1,367 1,167 844 2007 1,415 1,933 1,732 1,251 2006 1,385 2,001 2,038 1,616 Source: Illinois Association of Realtors
  • 7.
    • Rockford has increasingly annexed land, occupied much of that land and become less dense over the past 35 years.
    • The Green Communities Survey (2003-2004) revealed significant displeasure among local residents with sprawl and current development.
  • 8.
    • Commuting to the Chicago area doubled from 1990 (1.7%) to 2000 (3.7%), but still represents a very small part of employment for Winnebago County residents.
    • 87% of Winnebago County workers are employed in Winnebago County, but only 35.8% of Boone County workers are employed in Boone County.
    • Commuting time for the average worker rose from 17.8 minutes in 1990 to 20.8 minutes in 2000, reaching 21.7 in 2008.
  • 9. County In-Migration From Out-Migration To Net Migration Number Percent Number Percent 2006-2007 Cook 1,502 12.3% 744 7.6% +758 Boone 1,234 10.1% 944 9.6% +290 Rock, WI 591 4.8% 625 6.4% -34 McHenry 531 4.3% 195 2.0% +336 Ogle 525 4.3% 565 5.8% -40 Kane 522 4.3% 245 2.5% +277 Stephenson 435 3.6% 294 3.0% +141 DuPage 391 3.2% 166 1.7% +225 Other 6,480 53.1% 6,008 61.4% +472 Total 12,211 100.0% 9,786 100.0% +2,425 Average Income $43,000 $45,000 Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income for 2006-2007
  • 10.
    • Winnebago County’s 72.5% home ownership level in 2005 - 2007 was improved over 68% in 1990; higher than the nation at 67.2%.
    • Black (40.2%) home ownership lags. Hispanic (60.8%), white (77.8%) and Asian (71.2%) are much higher. Hispanic has been rising. (2007 data)
  • 11. Age Group 1980 1990 2000 2005- 2007 2020 Under 5 7.4% 7.6% 7.1% 6.9% 7.1% 5-17 22.2% 18.6% 19.3% 18.5% 18.2% 18-24 12.3% 9.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.2% 25-44 28.2% 32.3% 29.8% 28.3% 25.9% 45-64 19.7% 19.3% 22.6% 24.9% 23.8% 65+ 10.2% 12.7% 12.7% 12.8% 16.8% Median Age 29.6 33.4 35.9 36.4 38.1
  • 12.
    • Over the past five decades, the Rockford area has become increasingly diverse in terms of race and ethnicity.
    • In 1950, just 2.6% of Winnebago County residents classified themselves as nonwhite. By 2005-2007, one-quarter (24.4%) were nonwhite.
  • 13.
    • The diversity increase from 1950 - 2007 has been significant for several groups.
    1950 – 2005/07 GROWTH Race/Ethnic Numerical Change Black +29,305 Hispanic +27,993 Asian +5,122
  • 14. Race/Ethnic 2005 – 2007 2000 2000-2005/7 Change No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. White 222,429 75.6% 220,817 79.3% 1,612 +0.6% Black 33,187 11.3% 29,038 10.4% 4,149 +14.3% Hispanic 28,440 9.7% 19,206 6.9% 9,234 +48.1% American Indian 615 0.2% 584 0.2% 31 +5.3% Asian/Pacific Isl. 5,862 2.0% 4,795 1.7% 1,067 +22.3% Multiple Races/Other 3,638 1.2% 3,978 1.4% -340 -0.2% Total 294,171 100.0% 278,418 100.0% 15,753 +5.4% Except for Hispanic, all races are non-Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • 15.
    • From 2000-2005/07, Winnebago County grew by 15,753 from 278,418 to 294,171.
    • Net growth was primarily composed of additional minority persons.
    • Numeric Pct. of Race/Ethnic Group Change Growth
    • White +1,612 +10.2%
    • Hispanic +9,234 +58.8%
    • Black, non Hispanic +4,149 +26.4%
    • Asian +1,067 +6.8%
    • From 2000-2005/07, growth was 80% minority.
  • 16.
    • The City of Rockford and remainder of the County differ appreciably in their racial/ethnic makeup.
    Race/Ethnic Winnebago County Outside Rockford City of Rockford Number Percent Number Percent White, non Hispanic 132,528 87.0% 91,515 62.5% Black, non Hispanic 5,146 3.4% 29,187 19.9% Hispanic 9,605 6.3% 20,528 14.0% Asian 3,800 2.5% 2,083 1.4% Multi-Racial 1,132 0.7% 2,360 1.6% Other 177 0.1% 698 0.5% Total 152,388 100.0% 146,371 100.0%
  • 17. Race/Ethnic City of Rockford County exc. Rockford Percent in Rockford Black 28,537 5,102 84.8% Asian 4,489 2,269 66.4% Hispanic 22,937 8,100 73.9% Population 154,128 146,124 51.3%
  • 18.
    • Rockford may have the seventh largest Hispanic population among Illinois cities.
    Community Hispanic Population 1. Chicago 770,386 2. Cicero 75,822 1 3. Aurora 63,091 4. Waukegan 49,363 5. Elgin 44,470 6. Joliet 38,887 7. Rockford 22,973 8. Berwyn 20,543 2 9. Bolingbrook 17,562 10. Melrose Park 12,485 2 1 2007 data. 2 2000 data, 2008 not available.
  • 19.
    • Asians living in the Rockford area come from a variety of backgrounds.
    Ancestry Number Percent Laotian 1,176 24.9% Asian Indian 746 15.6% Vietnamese 646 13.5% Filipino 637 13.3% Chinese 451 9.4% Korean 443 9.3% Japanese 179 3.7% Other 496 10.4% Total 4,780 100.0%
  • 20.
    • In 2007, only 43% of Rockford youth were white non-Hispanic, the majority were non-white.
    • The older population 65+ is mostly white, non-Hispanic about 86% in 2008.
    • In fall 2008, only 38% of students
      • in Rockford District 205 schools were white, 31% black, 22% Hispanic and 3% Asian.
  • 21. Year (Sept. 30) Total Enroll-ment White Black Hispanic Asian Amer. Indian Multi- Racial 1 2008 26,950 10,227 37.9% 8,255 30.6% 6,040 22.4% 862 3.2% 34 0.1% 1,532 5.7% 2000 26,047 13,340 51.2% 8,184 31.4% 3,678 14.1% 800 3.1% 45 0.2% Not Available 1990 26,554 18,534 69.8% 5,975 22.5% 1,275 4.8% 743 2.8% 27 0.1% 1980 32,407 24,613 75.9% 6,384 19.7% 866 2.7% 367 1.1% 177 0.5% 1 Multiracial added as a category beginning 2004. Source: Rockford School District Fall Housing Report
  • 22. Rank 1870 1910 1950 1990 2000 1. Sweden Sweden Sweden Mexico Mexico 2. Ireland Germany Italy Italy Laos 3. England Italy Germany England Bosnia 4. Scotland Russia Lithuania Germany Poland 5. Germany England England Laos Italy
  • 23.
    • An emerging ethnic group in the Rockford area comes from the former Yugoslavia.
    Rank County 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Total 1. Mexico 170 262 267 344 136 1,179 2. Bosnia/Herzegovina 6 22 93 61 26 210 3. Philippines 41 40 33 19 24 157 4. Vietnam 32 27 28 18 14 119 5. India 15 12 28 21 35 111 6. China 21 18 28 17 16 100 7. Serbia/Montenegro 1 13 13 22 9 13 70 8. Poland 8 13 15 16 8 60 9. Laos 10 9 10 9 17 55 10. Korea 0 11 13 16 13 53 1 Includes Macedonia
  • 24.
    • Using an ICE (INS) methodology, the number of undocumented residents is estimated to be:
    County Number Boone 3,237 Ogle 1,504 Winnebago 9,705 3-County Area 14,446
  • 25.
    • Minority populations will continue to grow and constitute a larger proportion of the population.
    • “ Hispanic Wave” continuing, though immigration may be slowing. Hispanic community established
    • Minority birth rates are much higher than white, non-Hispanic.
    • Young minority populations, median ages – white (40.8), Asian (32.0), black (27.3), Hispanic (25.7).
  • 26.
    • At the current growth rate, the county will have nearly 55,000 Hispanics by 2020 or one-sixth of the projected county population.
    Source: 1990-2006 Census Bureau 2010-2020 Health Systems Research Year Hispanic Population 1990 7,771 2000 19,206 2006 28,440 2010 (est.) 37,752 2020 (est.) 54,470
  • 27.
    • Household size declined from 1960-2000 due to lower fertility, declining marriage, more persons living alone, but increased after 2000 with the Hispanic influx.
    Source: Decennial Census, American Community Survey WINNEBAGO COUNTY AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE: 1960 - 2005 - 2007 Year Household Size 2008 2.63 2000 2.53 1990 2.57 1980 2.76 1970 3.17 1960 3.31
  • 28. Category 2005-07 2000 1990 1980 Total Households 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Married couples with children 20.9% 23.0% 27.0% 33.0% Married couples w/o children 30.3% 29.3% 29.9% 30.8% Female single parents 8.3% 7.6% 6.8% 5.7% Male single parent 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 1.0% Elderly living alone 10.0% 9.6% 9.5% 8.0% Others living alone 18.0% 16.7% 15.0% 13.4% Others/group quarters 10.2% 11.4% 10.1% 8.1%
  • 29. Family Type Winnebago County Rockford City In family households 73,795 37,695 Married couple 64.6% 52.3% Male single parent 7.2% 8.5% Female single parent 27.7% 38.7% Non-family household 0.1% 0.1% Grandchildren 5.4% 5.7%
  • 30. Race/ Ethnic Married Couple Single Female Grand- Parent White 73.2% 14.0% 4.0% Black 26.5% 49.5% 12.2% Hispanic 60.7% 16.8% 5.8% Asian 80.7% 6.8% 4.3% 1 Updated information not available
  • 31.
    • Unemployment fell to 5-6% in recent years, but has risen to August 2009 - Rockford 16.9%, Winnebago County 15.2%.
    • The MSA has lost about 15,000 manufacturing jobs in the past decade and remains prone to severe cyclical swings, especially as housing and auto demand varies. Manufacturing fell from 33,000 to 30,300 in the past year.
    • Second highest manufacturing proportion (25%) among larger counties in the nation (2004 ACS).
  • 32.
    • New jobs being created are primarily in the services sector, but service jobs with lower wages and often without benefits are replacing manufacturing jobs.
    • Rockford industries have increasingly lost local control.
    • Few corporate headquarters; no large firms have headquarters here.
    • Rockford area needs to add professionals to “balance the community,” maintain tax base.
  • 33.
    • “ Largest employer” list is dominated by service industries such as education, health and government. These are sectors where we “tax ourselves.” They do not, in general, bring in dollars to build the economy.
    • Many major basic industries have had a pattern of declining jobs over the past decade.
  • 34. Rank Employer Employees Type 1. Rockford Public Schools 3,730 Service 2. Rockford Health System 2,972 Service 3. Wal-Mart 2,750 Service 4. SwedishAmerican Health System 2,373 Service 5. Hamilton Sundstrand 2,165 Basic 6. Winnebago County 1,839 Service 7. OSF St. Anthony Medical Center 1,807 Service 8. Rockford Park District 1,739 Service 9. Daimler-Chrysler 1,600 Basic 9. United Parcel Service 1,600 Basic Source: Rockford Area Economic Development Council
  • 35.
    • Though educational attainment for high school grads among persons 25+ is relatively typical, we lag in college graduates.
    • Rockford must compete against communities like Naperville where 64% have a Bachelor’s Degree .
    • Only 72% currently graduate from Rockford high schools. (70% black, 65% Hispanic) – 2008 Report Card.
  • 36. Race/Ethnic Gender Entered 9 th Fall 2003 Graduated June 2007 Percent Graduated White, non-Hispanic Male 628 353 56.2% Female 570 374 65.6% Black, non-Hispanic Male 497 157 31.6% Female 508 246 48.4% Asian/ Pacific Islander Male 44 27 61.4% Female 34 25 73.5% Hispanic Male 214 94 43.9% Female 220 106 48.2% Total 2,718 1,386 51.0%
    • Source: Fall Housing Report 2003
        • ISBE Graduates 2007
  • 37. PERCENT MEETING OR EXCEEDING STANDARDS High School 2008 2007 2006 2005 Auburn 38.9% 38.1% 50.9% 51.4% East 23.7% 23.9% 30.5% 22.7% Guilford 38.3% 46.1% 46.6% 52.1% Jefferson 28.2% 29.6% 34.9% 41.3% District 33.6% 36.4% 41.8% 42.9% State 52.5% 52.6% 54.3% 54.9% Source: ISBE, Prairie State Achievement Examination
  • 38.
    • The Rockford Area continues to trail the state and nation in residents with a Bachelor’s Degree.
    Year City of Rockford Winn. County Illinois U.S. 2005 - 2007 (ACS) 18.8% 19.9% 29.0% 27.0% 2000 (Census) 19.8% 19.4% 26.1% 24.4% Persons 25 - 34
      • 2000 Census
    21.0%
      • 2005 - 07 ACS
    20.2%
  • 39.
    • GENXers (ages 25-39 with college degree) comprise 1.2% of our population compared to 2.2% for the nation.
    Educational Attainment United States Winnebago Differ-ence Less than 9 th grade 6.5% 5.4% -1.1% 9 th to 12 th grade, no diploma 9.5% 11.0% +1.5% HS Grad (includes GED) 30.0% 35.0% +5.0% Some college, no degree 19.6% 20.8% +1.2% Associate’s degree 7.4% 7.9% +0.5% Bachelor’s degree 17.1% 13.3% -3.8% Grad or professional degree 9.9% 6.7% -3.2% Percent HS graduate or higher 84.0% 83.6% -0.4% Percent bach. degree or higher 27.0% 19.9% -7.1% Source: American Community Survey
  • 40.
    • Rockford metropolitan area per capita personal income (PCPI) as a percent of the U.S. PCPI has been on a continuous downward slide for the past decade.
    • PCPI includes all wealth, not just earnings - but also dividends, interest, government programs.
    Year Percent of U.S. PCPI 2007 81% 2000 91% 1997 97% 1994 101%
  • 41.
    • Only two Illinois metropolitan areas had a lower per capita personal income than Rockford for 2007.
    Metropolitan Area Per Capita Personal Income Chicago $44,346 Peoria $38,189 Decatur $36,433 Quad Cities $36,208 Springfield $36,150 Bloomington-Normal $35,371 Rockford $31,232 Kankakee $29,196 Danville $27,141
  • 42. Population Group Poverty Percent 2005-07 2000 All Persons 13.6% 9.6% Under 18 20.8% 12.9%
      • Under 6
    25.1%
      • Seniors 65+
    7.1% White, non-Hispanic 8.4% Black 39.6% Hispanic 25.2% Not High School Graduate 25.0% Families No child 3.1% 1 – 2 children 13.4% 3 – 4 children 28.4% 5+ children 41.7% Single parent families 44.3%
  • 43.
    • DEFINITION: Pupils age 3 to 17, inclusive, from families receiving Public Aid, living in institutions for neglected or delinquent children, being supported in foster homes with public funds, or eligible to receive free or reduced-price lunches. Free lunch is available if household income is below 130% of poverty, reduced price lunch under 185%.
    Group Percent Low Income District 205 71.5% State 41.1% High Schools 61.8% Elementary 72.7%
  • 44. PERSONAL INCOME SOURCES: 1995 - 2007 Source 2007 1995 Earnings 66.6% 69.8% Dividends, interest, rent 16.2% 17.4% Transfer (gov) receipts 17.2% 12.7% Total 100.0% 100.0%
  • 45. Occupation Winnebago County United States 2005/ 2007 2000 Change 2005/ 2007 2000 Change Management, professional 27.8% 29.7% -1.9% 34.1% 33.6% +0.5% Service 17.1% 12.9% +4.2% 16.6% 14.9% +1.7% Sales & office 25.8% 26.7% -0.9% 25.8% 26.7% -0.9% Farming 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% 0.7% 0.7% --- Construction 7.5% 8.6% -1.1% 9.8% 9.4% +0.4% Production, transportation 21.7% 22.0% -0.3% 12.9% 14.6% -1.7%
  • 46.
    • Nearly one in five persons are enrolled in Medicaid and related programs.
    • About 45,000 Winnebago County residents receive food stamps.
    • Poverty rose from 9.6% in 1999 to 13.6% in 2005 - 2007.
  • 47.
    • Some elected officials and community leaders have contended that expansion of our social problems is being driven by “people from Chicago” coming to Rockford because the social services system is so good. Is this true?
      • Little evidence, mostly anecdotes about “people from Chicago.”
      • Of course people are coming from Chicago. Cook County has 5.3 million, so certainly many come this way and Rockfordians move to Chicago. In other times, we would be proud that individuals are moving here.
  • 48.
      • Movers tend to be low income, unemployed renters, those in poverty move more often.
      • Virtually all Illinois communities blame “Chicago” for social ills, supposedly because of their excellent social services. However, services are similar in all larger communities.
      • Why would low income persons choose the community with the highest unemployment?
  • 49.
      • These problems are our own – low educational attainment, crime and a declining economy.
      • Believing that social problems are generated by “Chicagoans” is counter productive, keeping us from improving locally and seeking solutions.
      • Blaming social services comes at a time of increasing needs and reduced support. A strong set of services is essential.
  • 50.
    • 46.3% of births are to unmarried mothers, continues to rise.
    • 9.2% of births are low birth weight, 15.4% of black births.
    • Over half of births are paid for by Medicaid.
  • 51.
    • Population slowdown, but continued higher minority proportions.
    • Declining income, property values, tax base.
    • Growing underclass, high social service needs.
  • 52.  
  • 53.
    • Lower income shoppers are the fastest growing income group in the Rockford area and nation.
      • In total, growth is outpacing higher income households.
    • Compared with other groups, budget-constrained shoppers:
      • Shop more frequently, but spend less per trip
      • Switch retailers and brands more often
  • 54.
    • However, lower-income households are not homogenous, but quite diverse.
      • Young adults, single parents, elderly, Hispanics, Blacks
  • 55.
    • Rockford is in a severe downward slide.
    • Underclass continues to grow, no “transformation” in the short term.
    • Selling to or servicing the population may require a shift in thinking toward the reality of our populace.
  • 56.  

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