$ $$     Alternatives to    Agile Estimation         Neil Killick@neil_killick #NoEstimatesneilkillick.com
#NoEstimates"As a software practitioner...I want to shift focus onto delivering value tostakeholders & customers and away ...
How long will this project take?   How much will it cost?    Should we go ahead?
Projects clump valuable things
What about emergent value?   Welcoming change?
Where does value end?
How useful is an accurateestimate? Say $400-600k?
Lets considera project witha realbudgetaryconstraintWhat can webuild for$500k?
Fixed team, Time = Money $500k buys us 6 months
Small bets"Lets buildsomething for$100k"● Creativity● Drip fund● Deliver early &  often● Inspect & adapt
The "project"
De-clump!
Prioritise intosmall releases
Release 1 (min slice thru requirements)Release 2Release 3+
Take top 2 or 3 stories from R1Iteration 1                    The rest
Make stories "small" JITDont get bogged down!Natural to break down work intochunks when working in iterationsLearn how to ...
How do w          e know  its "smal             l"?
Slice n Dice  Small = Simple, Unambiguous1. Are there >1 acceptance criteria?2. Are there >1 use cases or user scenarios?3...
Why not story points?                                      Release scope                                        going up?R...
Story points lull us into a
We value empirical measurement         over Guesses
Counting stories Backlog(options)   R1    Ready In Progress   Done
Visualise Cycle Time Backlog(options)     R1      Ready In Progress   Done     3 wks             2 wks                    ...
Constraints force Decisions Backlog(options)     R1         Ready In Progress          Done     3 wks        ?            ...
We valueDelivering over Estimating         ● Tech infrastructure must           support rapid delivery         ● Capabilit...
Towards #NoEstimates● Small releases;  Minimum features● Dont accept >1  point; Slice n Dice● Shorten delivery  cycles; De...
#NoEstimatesEmbrace the delicious uncertainty of software design and development   Make the uncertain... certain     (deli...
Questions?      Hands up! Who here estimates?Who chooses to estimate? Who doesnt estimate?     ● Portfolio level estimatio...
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Alternatives to Agile Estimation

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Transcript of "Alternatives to Agile Estimation"

  1. 1. $ $$ Alternatives to Agile Estimation Neil Killick@neil_killick #NoEstimatesneilkillick.com
  2. 2. #NoEstimates"As a software practitioner...I want to shift focus onto delivering value tostakeholders & customers and away fromestimating...So that I am empowered to make the rightdecisions & build the right thing"#NoEstimates is not refusing to estimate.Its about asking if there is a better way.
  3. 3. How long will this project take? How much will it cost? Should we go ahead?
  4. 4. Projects clump valuable things
  5. 5. What about emergent value? Welcoming change?
  6. 6. Where does value end?
  7. 7. How useful is an accurateestimate? Say $400-600k?
  8. 8. Lets considera project witha realbudgetaryconstraintWhat can webuild for$500k?
  9. 9. Fixed team, Time = Money $500k buys us 6 months
  10. 10. Small bets"Lets buildsomething for$100k"● Creativity● Drip fund● Deliver early & often● Inspect & adapt
  11. 11. The "project"
  12. 12. De-clump!
  13. 13. Prioritise intosmall releases
  14. 14. Release 1 (min slice thru requirements)Release 2Release 3+
  15. 15. Take top 2 or 3 stories from R1Iteration 1 The rest
  16. 16. Make stories "small" JITDont get bogged down!Natural to break down work intochunks when working in iterationsLearn how to do this effectively
  17. 17. How do w e know its "smal l"?
  18. 18. Slice n Dice Small = Simple, Unambiguous1. Are there >1 acceptance criteria?2. Are there >1 use cases or user scenarios?3. What is the simplest technical solution (e.g."hamburger method")
  19. 19. Why not story points? Release scope going up?Risky to say "not small is OK"Shifts focus from value to estimated costGetting better at estimating delivers no valueVelocity metric gets abused
  20. 20. Story points lull us into a
  21. 21. We value empirical measurement over Guesses
  22. 22. Counting stories Backlog(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done
  23. 23. Visualise Cycle Time Backlog(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done 3 wks 2 wks 3 + 4 5 Cycle time = 7/5 = 1.5 weeks 4 wks Help PO understand the devastating impact of WIP
  24. 24. Constraints force Decisions Backlog(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done 3 wks ? 2 wks ? ● Upcoming stories usually smaller ● Work not done is only "options" 4 wks ● Until PO decides to implement, size doesnt matter
  25. 25. We valueDelivering over Estimating ● Tech infrastructure must support rapid delivery ● Capability crucial, despite biz reluctance to release ● Continuous delivery reduces "need" forDevOps estimates
  26. 26. Towards #NoEstimates● Small releases; Minimum features● Dont accept >1 point; Slice n Dice● Shorten delivery cycles; Decisions● Dont rely on estimates; Measure
  27. 27. #NoEstimatesEmbrace the delicious uncertainty of software design and development Make the uncertain... certain (delivery dates & cost) Real constraints inspire creative solutions to problemsAsk yourself why you estimate and what you use the estimates for
  28. 28. Questions? Hands up! Who here estimates?Who chooses to estimate? Who doesnt estimate? ● Portfolio level estimation ● 5 potentially valuable projects, only 1 team ● How would you proceed without estimates? ● Volunteers to start
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