1. $ $
$
Alternatives to
Agile Estimation
Neil Killick
@neil_killick #NoEstimates
neilkillick.com

2. #NoEstimates
"As a software practitioner...
I want to shift focus onto delivering value to
stakeholders & customers and away from
estimating...
So that I am empowered to make the right
decisions & build the right thing"
#NoEstimates is not refusing to estimate.
It's about asking if there is a better way.

3. How long will this project take?
How much will it cost?
Should we go ahead?

4. Projects clump valuable things

5. What about emergent value?
Welcoming change?

6. Where does value end?

7. How useful is an accurate
estimate? Say $400-600k?

8. Let's consider
a project with
a real
budgetary
constraint
What can we
build for
$500k?

9. Fixed team, Time = Money
$500k buys us 6 months

10. Small bets
"Let's build
something for
$100k"
● Creativity
● Drip fund
● Deliver early &
often
● Inspect & adapt

11. The "project"

12. De-clump!

13. Prioritise into
small releases

14. Release 1 (min slice thru requirements)
Release 2
Release 3+

15. Take top 2 or 3 stories from R1
Iteration 1
The rest

16. Make stories "small" JIT
Don't get bogged down!
Natural to break down work into
chunks when working in iterations
Learn how to do this effectively

17. How do w
e know
it's "smal
l"?

18. Slice n' Dice
Small = Simple, Unambiguous
1. Are there >1 acceptance criteria?
2. Are there >1 use cases or user scenarios?
3. What is the simplest technical solution (e.g.
"hamburger method")

19. Why not story points?
Release scope
going up?
Risky to say "not small is OK"
Shifts focus from value to estimated cost
Getting better at estimating delivers no value
Velocity metric gets abused

20. Story points lull us into a

21. We value empirical measurement
over Guesses

22. Counting stories
Backlog
(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done

23. Visualise Cycle Time
Backlog
(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done
3 wks
2 wks
3
+
4 5
Cycle time = 7/5 = 1.5 weeks
4 wks Help PO understand the
devastating impact of WIP

24. Constraints force Decisions
Backlog
(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done
3 wks
?
2 wks
?
● Upcoming stories usually smaller
● Work not done is only "options"
4 wks ● Until PO decides to implement, size
doesn't matter

25. We value
Delivering over Estimating
● Tech infrastructure must
support rapid delivery
● Capability crucial, despite
biz reluctance to release
● Continuous delivery
reduces "need" for
DevOps
estimates

26. Towards #NoEstimates
● Small releases;
Minimum features
● Don't accept >1
point; Slice n' Dice
● Shorten delivery
cycles; Decisions
● Don't rely on
estimates; Measure

27. #NoEstimates
Embrace the delicious uncertainty of
software design and development
Make the uncertain... certain
(delivery dates & cost)
Real constraints inspire
creative solutions to problems
Ask yourself why you estimate and
what you use the estimates for

28. Questions?
Hands up!
Who here estimates?
Who chooses to estimate?
Who doesn't estimate?
● Portfolio level estimation
● 5 potentially valuable projects,
only 1 team
● How would you proceed without
estimates?
● Volunteers to start