$ $$ Alternatives to Agile Estimation Neil Killick@neil_killick #NoEstimatesneilkillick.com
#NoEstimates"As a software practitioner...I want to shift focus onto delivering value tostakeholders & customers and away fromestimating...So that I am empowered to make the rightdecisions & build the right thing"#NoEstimates is not refusing to estimate.Its about asking if there is a better way.
How long will this project take? How much will it cost? Should we go ahead?
Counting stories Backlog(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done
Visualise Cycle Time Backlog(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done 3 wks 2 wks 3 + 4 5 Cycle time = 7/5 = 1.5 weeks 4 wks Help PO understand the devastating impact of WIP
Constraints force Decisions Backlog(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done 3 wks ? 2 wks ? ● Upcoming stories usually smaller ● Work not done is only "options" 4 wks ● Until PO decides to implement, size doesnt matter
We valueDelivering over Estimating ● Tech infrastructure must support rapid delivery ● Capability crucial, despite biz reluctance to release ● Continuous delivery reduces "need" forDevOps estimates
Towards #NoEstimates● Small releases; Minimum features● Dont accept >1 point; Slice n Dice● Shorten delivery cycles; Decisions● Dont rely on estimates; Measure
#NoEstimatesEmbrace the delicious uncertainty of software design and development Make the uncertain... certain (delivery dates & cost) Real constraints inspire creative solutions to problemsAsk yourself why you estimate and what you use the estimates for
Questions? Hands up! Who here estimates?Who chooses to estimate? Who doesnt estimate? ● Portfolio level estimation ● 5 potentially valuable projects, only 1 team ● How would you proceed without estimates? ● Volunteers to start