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No Estimates - Hai Dang

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No Estimates - Hai Dang

  1. 1. #NOESTIMATE SHIFT YOUR FOCUS ON VALUE
  2. 2. New idea means crazy idea
  3. 3. THOMAS EDISON
  4. 4. Crazy ideas in Software Development
  5. 5. KENT BECK – EXTREME PROGRAMING (1999)
  6. 6. SCRUM– KEN SCHWABER(1990s)
  7. 7. TAIICHI OHNO TOYOTA PRODUCTION SYSTEM (1988)
  8. 8. Maximize customer value while minimize waste LEAN PRINCIPLE
  9. 9. EDWARDS W. DEMING
  10. 10. Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle W. Edwards Deming or Deming Cycle Plan DoCheck Act © http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:W._Edwards_Deming.gif
  11. 11. Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle W. Edwards Deming or Deming Cycle Plan DoCheck Act © http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:W._Edwards_Deming.gif
  12. 12. #NoEstimates Another “crazy” idea …
  13. 13. There are more and more #NoEstimates supporters THE #NOESTIMATES CREW Neil KillickWoody ZuillVasco Duarte
  14. 14. Why do we need estimation? Estimation
  15. 15. Estimation Construction estimation
  16. 16. Software is NOT a CONSTRUCTION Software is LEARNING Estimation
  17. 17. • Team do the estimation job • Relative estimation with Planning Poker • Calculating and tracking Team Velocity With Agile Software Development, a new approach of estimation is also stated Agile Estimation
  18. 18. PLANNING POKER
  19. 19. • Share understanding of the requirement • Enable conversation and transparency • Ability to forecast product release base on team velocity • Use metric to measure continuous delivery. Some benefits of Agile Estimation AGILE ESTIMATION
  20. 20. Estimating Time rather than Complexity AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS 3 days 1 day 2 days
  21. 21. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS Always Assume The Worst!
  22. 22. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS
  23. 23. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS As a user I should be able to login As a user I should be able to login • User model • Controllers and views • Forgot password • Email notification • Login with Facebook, Google … • Registration 
  24. 24. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS I’ve never done that before I have no idea Just because you’ve never done something doesn’t mean it’s complex
  25. 25. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS … Gaming Velocities
  26. 26. • Individuals and interactions over processes & tools • Working software over comprehensive documentation • Customer collaboration over contract negotiation • Responding to change over following a plan We are uncovering better ways of developing SW by doing it and helping others do it. Though this work we have come to value Agile Manifesto, 2001 That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the item on the left more http://agilemanifesto.org/
  27. 27. Agile Product Ownership
  28. 28. Expectation Management
  29. 29. 1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do 2. Slice work into small pieces of work 3. Develop each piece of work 4. Iterate and refactor This is how #NoEstimates described from supporters #NoEstimates How-to
  30. 30. PRIORITISATION “Sh*t, this feature might not get done if I leave it at number 10 in the backlog, so I’d better move it up” the PO should use this information to inform *prioritization* decisions, NOT go/no-go decisions
  31. 31. “JUST IN TIME” SLICING CONCEPT
  32. 32. DEFINITION OF READY
  33. 33. DEFINITION OF READY
  34. 34. Vision is a key
  35. 35. Vision is a key
  36. 36. SHIFT FOCUS AWAY FROM ESTIMATION Can we finish this amount of work on this Sprint? What can we do next?
  37. 37. • Do not fix time based on an estimate of cost • Know your costs by having a fixed team and determine a “final” delivery day • Delivery early and often • Quality is subjective • Welcome changes “Deliver what customer want, not what they ask for” Contract Negotiation
  38. 38. We cannot palm people off, what we can do is offer alternative How to answer your boss? Okay, just tell me. How long? How Much? I don’t estimate! Talk to the hand, sir!
  39. 39. • Measure actual lead times for each piece of work • Measure throughput (counting the number of cards in “Done” column at the end of every week • Use a fixed WIP (Work in Progress) • Use Little’s Law to calculate average lead time. The alternative method for estimation The method
  40. 40. • Number of cards done in 1 week = 20, therefore: throughput = 4 cards/day • Team size = 5, WIP = 4 • Lead time = (4+1)/4 = 1.25 days (this is for the top card) • Lead time = (4+4)/4 = 2 days (this is for the card 4th) Use Little’s Law to calculate average lead time for a card at position n in the queue (WIP + n) / throughput Little’s Law
  41. 41. MEASURE THROUGHPUT
  42. 42. Agile Product Ownership
  43. 43. Expectation Management
  44. 44. • Prioritization over estimation • Story slicing over planning poker • Delivering over commitment • Cycle/lead times over velocity Some keys behind the idea of #NoEstimates #NoEstimates “manifesto”
  45. 45. TRUST TRUST Mod Programing Pair Programing Self-organized Velocity #NoEstimates Early and regular releases Focus on quality Transparency
  46. 46. Not Only Estimate #NoEstimates #NoEstimates
  47. 47. • Don’t simply stop estimating • Try and get better at slicing to simple pieces of work • Measure your throughput • Discover yourself if #NoEstimates is right for you and good fit to your organization culture. If you are considering working without estimates, here are first steps How to start?
  48. 48. Thank you!
  49. 49. Before you leave … http://zingpoll.com/noestimate

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