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‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas (ESPA Deltas project)’, Presentation by Dr. Craig Hutton, ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoData Institute, Geography & Environment  AU, University of Sou
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‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas (ESPA Deltas project)’, Presentation by Dr. Craig Hutton, ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoData Institute, Geography & Environment AU, University of Sou

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Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013 at the University of Southampton. #MDRWeek. World Water Day and International Year of Water Cooperation 2013. …

Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013 at the University of Southampton. #MDRWeek. World Water Day and International Year of Water Cooperation 2013.
‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas (ESPA Deltas project)’, Presentation by Dr. Craig Hutton, ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoData Institute, Geography & Environment AU, University of Southampton.
See the latest videos, interviews, pictures, tweets and views from the floor at: www.southampton.ac.uk/multidisciplinary

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  • 1. World Water Day: Water Cooperation Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013 ‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas (ESPA Deltas project)’,by Dr. Craig Hutton, ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoDataInstitute, Geography & Environment, University of Southampton
  • 2. Presented by:Dr. Craig HuttonESPA Deltas Research Coordinator,GeoData Institute,Geography & Environment AUUniversity of SouthamptonUnited Kingdom
  • 3. ESPA DELTA:Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas EPSA Consortium Grant University of Southampton (Nicholls PI) University of Oxford Exeter University Dundee University Hadley Centre Plymouth Marine Laboratories National Oceanography Centre (Liverpool) Plus 10 Bangladeshi partners (BUET lead) 2 Indian partners (JU, ITTK) 1 Chinese partner (ECNU) Lecture 4. Climate change and the integrated coastal system. Wednesday 25 July 2007
  • 4. Delta Population & Poverty
  • 5. Threatened DeltasPopulation potentially displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050 1 million million to 50,000 50,000 to 5,000 Source: IPCC AR4 using data in Ericson et al. (2006)
  • 6. NileDeltas are sinking:Pink areas are below sea level Mahakam Mississippi Ganges Indus Vistula Mekong Yellow Euphrates CSDMS
  • 7. Height above sea leveldark green <5mlight green <3mpale green < 1m 100 km
  • 8. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBN) Delta Population: 150 million World Cities: Kolkata and Dhaka The Sunderbans Water –from the Himalayas through India and China
  • 9. Global-Mean Sea Level IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4) (2007)
  • 10. Study Area
  • 11. Key Ecosystems Marine Riverine Floodplain Supporting Provisioning Maintaining Cultural Source: BRAC (2007)
  • 12. Socio-Economic Trends in the delta plain• Growing populations;• Rising wealth and improving health, but questions of inequality;• Changing livelihoods and migration;• Urbanisation and infrastructure expansion;• Intensification of agriculture;• Increasing demand for flood management;• Increased water demand.
  • 13. Research Questions• To understand the present relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being and health in the Bangladeshi portion of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta.• To develop participatory methods to predict how these ecosystem services might evolve over the coming years and decades (up to 50 years) and their influence on human well- being and health under the multiple drivers of change in operation.• To analyse how policy can influence these outcomes and promote ecosystem services and human well-being and health.• To develop participatory methods to select robust policies that are effective across the range of uncertainty, including adaptive management approaches.• To test the transferability of these methods to other populated deltas.
  • 14. Scales in Bio-physical & socio-economic models 100 yrTemporal scale HadCM3 climate catchment 1yr Mangrove PRECIS delta MAXTENT other 1mo Social- Fishery Economic CropWat ModFlow POLCOMs-ERSEM CAESAR GWAVA 1hr 1d HydroTrend AquaCrop INCA FVCOM FVCOM FVCOM (river) (coast) (marine) 1m 10m 1km 10km 100 km Spatial scale 14 point local catchment regional global
  • 15. Systems Dynamics: Integration of Socio-Environmental Models in such a way as to consider the systems impacts ofinterventions and policies on socio-economicas well as biophysical outcomes e.g Prelim. conceptualisation Systems are combined for ESPA Deltas to produce an integrated Socio-environmental approach with feedback and thresholds 15 UNSW, Canberra
  • 16. Socio- No ofSunderban economic migrating + model people outsiders Wealth Nutrition + Market price of + Goods (Collector) ? - - +Coastal + + - +fishery Firewood collection Honey, Commercial Market price of for personal use wax, fruits exploitation of trees tourist attractions Fish - meat + Nursery - collection Nutrient + - Size of load - protected area Water + + Quality + + + + Mangrove + + X X Biomass area Decay + No of CO2 + Production + + rate Tourists - + fertilisation rate + - Temperature + + Species No of density/diversity + Alluvial Land erosion tigers - deposition + - + No ofSediment deer load + + + Tree ha-1 - Magnitude/frequency Sea Level Rise 16 River flow of cyclones
  • 17. Agriculture Socio- economic model Population Number + Nutrition Employment opportunities Agriculture Mangrove + Area Pollination ++ + Crop X X Growth Production Decay + - rate + rate Salinity + Nutrients - Crop + CO2 damage + fertilisation + + River flooding Temperature Precipitation + High intensity storm 17
  • 18. Settlement River High intensity Coastal flooding storm/cyclone flooding + + + Building + + Wealth damage Settlement size Arsenic ? + + + + Young Working Elderly X X X X Births Population Maturation Population Aging Population Deaths + + + + + - Birth rate - Death rate Education Migration Socio- economic model Employment opportunities Agriculture Shrimp Sunderban farm Fishery 18
  • 19. Fishery Magnitude/frequency Sea Level of cyclones Rise + + Socio- economic Land erosion model Market price + Employment Market price opportunities + of fish (Collector) of tourist attractions (Collector) + + Nutrition + Fish No of Population + + capture Tourists number Nursery + ++ Biomass of Sunderban X X Biomass Fish stock Mortality + Production + rate rate + + Primary Arsenic + production Nutrients 19
  • 20. Shrimp farm Settlement Market price of Shrimp (Collector) Socio- + Building Damage economic model Population + Number + Increased likelihood of coastal flood defence failure Nutrition Employment opportunities + Shrimp farm + area + ++ Shrimp X X Saline pollution Growth Biomass Mortality + of freshwater rate + rate +Nutrients + Temperature 20
  • 21. Thank you http://espadeltas.geodata.soton.ac.uk /
  • 22. World Water Day: Water Cooperation Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013See the latest videos, interviews, pictures, tweets and viewsfrom the floor at:Website: www.southampton.ac.uk/multidisciplinaryBlog: http://blog.soton.ac.uk/multidisciplinary/tag/mdrweek/Youtube: Search #MDRWeek Follow us on Twitter @Multisoton #MDRWeek