Chertow Lecture #4

China Facing the Future Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies 耶鲁大学森林与环境学院产业生态学中心 Prof. Marian Chertow Presentation to: Mandarin China AYA Excursion October 2008

Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What we know about what works for a country’s economic development ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Dani Rodrik – One Economics, Many Recipes 2007

What we know about what works… ,[object Object],[object Object],Dani Rodrik – One Economics, Many Recipes 2007

National policy choices and the China future question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Will the pace of growth continue? Chongqing Dan Eckstein 2006

How will the “business-miracle” story change for China? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What about… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Observations and trends – what China’s producing companies face ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Chinese workers - some unintended consequences? A. Harney, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What can Chinese producers do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What about US and other customers – willing to pay more or buy elsewhere? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A. Harney, The China Price , Penguin 2008

Move toward domestic consumption ,[object Object],[object Object]

Still, China’s problems are the world’s problems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

“ In an industrial ecosystem, the consumption of energy and materials is optimized, waste generation is minimized, and the effluents from one process serve as the raw material for another” My “circular” approach only gets you so far in China’s vast industrial ecosystem R.A. Frosch, and N. Gallopoulos, Strategies for manufacturing, Scientific American, 260 (3), 144, 1989.

Elizabeth Economy and Adam Segal, Council on Foreign Relations in NY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Foreign Affairs , July/August 2008

Still more “national policy choices” by the Chinese government concerning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

GDP ≠ Happiness Mean Happiness and Real GDP per Capita from 1975-97 for repeated cross-sections of (different) Americans R. Easterlin 1995

Chertow Lecture #4

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Chertow Lecture #4