You only get one life


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You only get one life

  1. 1. You only get one life What to do with it?
  2. 2. 1975: I lost the microcomputer revolution
  3. 3. 1985 (-1): I lost the GUI revolution
  4. 4. 1995: I lost the web revolution
  5. 5. 2005: I lost the Web 2.0 revolution
  6. 6. ~ 2015: the semantic revolution
  7. 7. And we will be one of the drivers
  8. 8. But, it’s not going to be an easy ride
  9. 9. Web 1.0 Crashed…
  10. 10. And Web2.0 will, most likely <ul><li>Excessive euphoria: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-- = US$100.000.000,00? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- = US$250.000.000,00? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- = US$,00? </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. = US$,00? <ul><li>They could get 20 million kits of “Beautiful new look of nose”, more than one for each Australian (they go for a mere US$7.50). </li></ul>
  12. 12. &quot;Hey my friend! You have a wide nose. Incidentally, I had a wide nose before, but thanks to 'CoCo – Beautiful New Look of Nose', my gargantuan proboscis is a thing of the past. Check it out!&quot;
  13. 13. &quot;Awesome! I can watch this convenient mirror and see my nose slimming down even as I drive my car. Oops, sorry about your kid, lolz!&quot;
  14. 14. &quot;Just a few more months of this torture, and I'll I have a Cleopatra Nose like that big-haired famous lady on TV!&quot;
  15. 15. Gosh, I really hope I get my new nose before I suffer further brain damage from the oxygen starvation caused by my self-induced sleep apnea.&quot;
  16. 16. US$,00 <ul><li>15.000 million-dollar houses? </li></ul><ul><li>1 building ~ 30 apartments </li></ul><ul><li>500 buildings </li></ul><ul><li>1 block ~ 20 buildings </li></ul><ul><li>25 blocks </li></ul><ul><li>Vieira Souto e Delfim Moreira, inteiras? </li></ul>
  17. 17. Is that the value for these ads?
  18. 18. All variations on these themes have been done
  19. 19. A 3rd reason Web2.0 will most likely crash <ul><li>3. An economic downturn is coming </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-- The Credit Crunch has taken a writedown of 15Billion from Citigroup; ~10Billion from UBS, and so on… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-- Meanwhile… </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Inflation is coming to the US
  21. 21. If inflation comes, money disappears <ul><li>Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, etc. will lose market value. </li></ul><ul><li>…which means they will be less able to acquire others. </li></ul><ul><li>…and the VCs will become risk-averse and most likely turn to green energy. </li></ul>
  22. 22. By 2015, a new revolution will be coming <ul><li>How can we can prepare for it? </li></ul>
  23. 23. Study and sacrifice Here are our weapons…
  24. 30. Success, study, and sacrifice A little of Paul Graham
  25. 31. Success, study, and sacrifice <ul><li>How to avoid attention-deficit disorder? </li></ul><ul><li>-- Find time. Quiet time! </li></ul><ul><li>-- Set your compiler/paper to load automatically when your computer boots </li></ul><ul><li>-- Subordinate your life to it </li></ul>
  26. 32. <ul><li>Steve Jobs once said that the success or failure of a startup depends on the first ten employees. </li></ul><ul><li>Being small is not, in itself, what makes startups kick butt, but rather that small groups can be select: small in the sense of an all-star team. </li></ul>
  27. 33. <ul><li>Economically, you can think of a startup as a way to compress your whole working life into a few years. </li></ul><ul><li>Instead of working at a low intensity for forty years, you work as hard as you possibly can for four. </li></ul>
  28. 34. a “conservation law” at work <ul><li>if you want to make a million dollars, you have to endure a million dollars' worth of pain. </li></ul><ul><li>For example, one way to make a million dollars would be to work for the Post Office your whole life, and save every penny of your salary. Imagine the stress of working for the Post Office for fifty years. </li></ul>
  29. 35. Imagine the stress of working for the Post Office for fifty years. <ul><li>In a startup you compress all this stress into four, five years. You do tend to get a certain bulk discount if you buy the economy-size pain, but you can't evade the fundamental conservation law. </li></ul><ul><li>If starting a startup were easy, everyone would do it. </li></ul>
  30. 36. <ul><li>At Viaweb I considered myself lucky if I got to hack a quarter of the time. And the things I had to do the other three quarters of the time ranged from tedious to terrifying. </li></ul><ul><li>I have a benchmark for this: I once had to leave a board meeting to have some cavities filled. I remember sitting back in the dentist's chair, waiting for the drill, and feeling like I was on vacation. </li></ul>
  31. 37. Success, study, and sacrifice
  32. 38. <ul><li>If you ever feel you’re on vacation on the dentist chair, that means you’re putting the sacrifice. </li></ul>
  33. 39. 2007 <ul><li>Papers in Artificial Intelligence, Minds and Machines, Proceedings of the Cognitive Science Society, Proceedings of EuroCogSci, Cognitive Science, Commentary in Behavioral and Brain Sciences; </li></ul><ul><li>Papers rejected, which need more work; </li></ul><ul><li>And many new ideas coming from this course </li></ul>
  34. 40. 2007
  35. 41. 2007 <ul><li>This course </li></ul><ul><li>Ok, from Bianor to go on this path… </li></ul>
  36. 42. A plan for 2008 <ul><li>Execution </li></ul><ul><li>A new course </li></ul><ul><li>Autoprogramming </li></ul><ul><li>Interchangeable “thinkable stuff” </li></ul><ul><li>Harry’s learning algorithms </li></ul><ul><li>Integration </li></ul>
  37. 43. A plan for 2008 <ul><li>Nicholas Thesis: Jarbas & Christian </li></ul><ul><li>Project for Christian’s co. </li></ul><ul><li>Project for Jarbas’s work </li></ul>
  38. 44. Plan for 2008 <ul><li>Autoprogramming </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Paper for computer science journal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Paper for cognitive science journal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Paper for philosophy/neuroscience journal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Measuring intuition </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Psychology or decision making Journal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Brum’s work </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Psychology Journal </li></ul></ul>
  39. 45. Execution is about beautiful design <ul><li>E=MC 2 </li></ul>
  40. 46. Good design is beautiful <ul><li>Simple: When you’re forced to be simple, there is no ornament, only the real problem </li></ul><ul><li>Timeless: it has no mistakes, and will not be improved with time </li></ul><ul><li>Suggestive: It naturally suggests possibilities unforeseen </li></ul>
  41. 47. Good design is beautiful <ul><li>Hard: All the people that have done great work have worked incredibly hard. </li></ul><ul><li>Looks easy: it looks as if everyone could have done it. </li></ul>
  42. 48. Good design is beautiful <ul><li>Uses symmetry: repetition and recursion </li></ul><ul><li>Redesign: the first version is for throwing away </li></ul><ul><li>Daring: You have the acquired ability to see ugliness, and your design will seem daring to others. </li></ul>
  43. 49. You only get one life I want to design a beautiful cognitive architecture