Sustainable Uplands End of Project presentation given at Moffat House Hotel, May 2010

Sustainable Uplands
Learning to manage future change
relu
Rural Economy and
Land Use Programme

Sustainable Uplands Project
Working with people in uplands to better anticipate, monitor and respond to future change
Protecting livelihoods and ecosystem services (the benefits society gets from nature)
Facilitating knowledge exchange between local stakeholders, policy-makers and social and natural scientists

5 years (ending 2010)
Sites in Peak District, Yorkshire Dales and Galloway (Cairnsmore of Fleet and the Luce, Bladnoch, Cree, Dee and Ken catchments)
27 researchers: Universities of Leeds, Aberdeen, Durham, Sheffield & others with Moors for the Future & Heather Trust
£800K from RELU plus £100K from ESRC
Plus additional funding for 16 projects using findings e.g. Yorkshire Water, Natural England, DEFRA, Premier Waste, United Utilities, Scottish Government, Commission for Rural Communities, Government Office for Science, International Union for the Conservation of Nature
Sustainable Uplands Project

The Sustainable Uplands team:
University of Aberdeen:
Dr Mark Reed
University of Leeds:
Prof Joe Holden
Dr Klaus Hubacek
Dr Nesha Beharry-Borg
Ms Jan Birch
Ms Sarah Buckmaster
Dr Dan Chapman
Dr Pippa Chapman
Dr Stephen Cornell
Dr Andy Dougill
Dr Evan Fraser
Dr Jenny Hodgson
Dr Nanlin Jin
Dr Brian Irvine
Prof Mike Kirkby
Dr Bill Kunin
Mr Oliver Moore
Dr Claire Quinn
University of Leeds (continued):
Dr Brad Parrish
Dr Lindsay Stringer
Dr Mette Termansen
University of Durham:
Prof Tim Burt
Dr Fred Worrall
Dr Rob Dunford
University of Sheffield:
Dr Christina Prell
Wirtschafts University, Austria:
Dr Sigrid Stagl
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria:
Jan Sendzimir
Moors for the Future partnership
The Heather Trust (Simon Thorp)

Plan
Why are uplands so important?
How can we prepare for the future?
What might the future hold?
What would this mean for the ecosystem services we depend upon?
What can we do?

1. Why are the uplands so important?

Why are uplands so important?

2. How can we prepare for the future?

Hannah Benchetrit: http://api.ning.com/files/hb2M0V1FUUQZ-wN8BpHgc*TP10HBgRkggLJkBN4PJwcGm0aNNb8CGSerP2KwNQmKUdSj7j91-kYcbwbqCd849BCd2lFWZAXH/thinking.jpg
Scenarios
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan Kay
“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today” Malcolm X

A new approach to scenarios

3. What might the future hold?

Why manage the uplands?

Intensification Scenario

What might this mean for Galloway?
Further afforestation of available land with predominantly Sitka Spruce on commercial forestry rotations

Effects on soil carbon alone
Light blue areas are non-peat soils
Green = absorbing carbon
Red = losing carbon
1 km2 grid
400 km2 area mapped
Just looking at soil, afforestation on peat soils is bad for carbon
Map showing current carbon dynamics of Water of Cree peats
Peat soils under conifers are losing carbon (red)
Peat soils not under conifers are absorbing carbon (green)
Galloway soils = net carbon source 17 ktonnes CO2 equivalents

Effects on soils and forest combined
Map showing combined current carbon dynamics of peat soils and trees
When you include trees and soil, the Water of Cree becomes a net carbon sink of -327 ktonnes CO2 equivalents
Carbon absorbed by trees more than makes up for soil C loss (assuming 80 year rotation), even on peat soils
We can’t generalise, but in Water of Cree, commercial forestry on peats results in net carbon storage, though even better for carbon if you plant on non-peat soils

Effects on fish
Potential negative consequences for fish populations via streamwater acidification
Link between afforestation and acidification is contested:
Does it only apply where there is already atmospheric pollution?
Can re-planting help reduce acidification?
Could climate change be to blame for acidification?
To what extent is there evidence for the “forest effect” on fish data in Galloway?
Are the effects seen in the 1980s still there?
If so, what’s causing it now there is less pollution?

Effects on fish
Building on previous work (Dunford) we investigated the relationship between fish and forestry in 300 sites across Galloway, controlling for factors such as altitude, rainfall, nutrient deposition and geology…
Focussed on Salmon (commercially important)

Shading shows data points: darker = more points (total 600 points, many overlap)
Fish densities become lower with increasing levels of proportional cover of large trees (>8m) within watershed area (note log scale: salmon start at around 15 fry per sample site)

Shading shows data points: darker = more points (total 600 points, many overlap)
Fish populations are also significantly affected by clear felling
But also affected (statistically) significantly by: altitude, substrate, site dimensions, flow type, bedrock and climatic conditions

Extensification Scenario

What might this mean for Galloway?
Further reductions in hill sheep farming, driven in part by declining agricultural payments
Possible diversification to exploit expanding tourism, consolidation of holdings and redevelopment of farm dwellings for tourism and to accommodate increasing numbers of retirees
Natural regeneration of forest in drier moorlands over long-term
Not all forests managed on commercial rotations – trees left to mature > 80 years

Moorland management
Removing sheep and managed burning from remaining Galloway moorlands would lead to a net increase in carbon storage (see film)
It would also lead to scrub/natural regeneration on drier moors, which in time would lead to a net carbon benefit
Other forms of extensification: peatland restoration - in purely carbon terms, it is better to maintain commercial forestry rotations than to clear and restore to blanket bog
But there might be ecological benefits e.g. for fish...

Conservation Forestry
If we allow trees to grow > 80 yr, soil carbon losses start to exceed the amount of carbon absorbed by trees, and the system becomes a net source of carbon
In Water of Cree, if we stopped all felling today, it would become a net source of carbon by 2050
More forest gaps (especially next to rivers) = more habitat potential for fish

4. What would this mean for the ecosystem services we depend upon?

Future benefits?
Carbon management via peatland restoration (as opposed to renewable energy developments) under the extensification scenario may bring a number of co-benefits:
Less brown water
Reduced fire risk
Protection of moorland/bog species important for conservation
Limit scrub/forest encroachment
Supplement incomes in remote areas via carbon markets?

But prepare for major trade-offs
Carbon management via afforestation may come at a price for fish and moorland biodiversity in some areas
Other forms of intensification prioritise provisioning services at the expense of most other ecosystem services
Extensive management will benefit biodiversity in over-grazed moorlands and carbon, but compromise provisioning services such as game and sheep production, and in drier locations where scrub/forest encroaches, lead to a loss of moorland species and current recreational benefits
Both scenarios are likely to compromise upland biodiversity in many locations
Golden Plover

5. What can we do?

1. Foster communication & trust
To tackle existing conflicts between different stakeholder groups
Reduce likelihood of exacerbating conflicts under future scenarios
Prioritise communication/trust between land owners and managers and those interested in conservation and water

2. Build adaptive capacity
Build partnerships between researchers, the policy community and practitioners
Share good practice and innovation within and between regions, based on local and scientific knowledge
Plan for the long-term
Manage increased recreation to reduce wildfire risk whilst maximising income via diversification
Restore damaged peats

3. Future-proof land use policy
Anticipate and prepare for the widest possible range of futures...
...In a funding framework that can facilitate adaptive management e.g. shifting priorities as climate changes
Rewarding land owners and managers for the provision of public goods
Better value for money if we target funding towards land managers and locations that can most efficiently deliver the services we need?
Not easy...

1. Determine potential of land to provide different ecosystem services under different forms of management
2. Determine relative value to society of ecosystem services provided under different forms of management
3. Differentiate payments so higher rates are available to support management for priority ecosystem services in the locations (and at the scales) that can provide them
4. Negotiate management plans with land owners and managers

1. Determine potential of land to provide different ecosystem services under different forms of management
Based on a combination of:
Outputs from process-based models showing how different forms of management influence the provision of ecosystem services in different locations
ii) Expert-based assessments of relationships not yet covered by models (Fazey)
Spot checks of ecosystem service provision to calibrate/validate “self-learning” models

2. Determine relative value to society of ecosystem services provided under different forms of management
Multi-functional landscapes lead to ES trade-offs
Difficult choices, in which land owners, managers – and the public? – should be involved
Methods to facilitate deliberation between these groups over the relative value they place on different ES

3. Differentiate payments so higher rates are available to support management for priority ecosystem services in the locations (and at the scales) that can provide them
ES values differ between regions, habitats & stakeholders
Spatially explicit information about the value people put on different ES from different locations could inform decisions re: which ES to prioritise where
This could inform differentiation of payments to incentivise management options most likely to deliver priority services

4. Negotiate management plans with land owners and managers
Inputs to negotiation with incentives to manage for priority services in relevant locations and at relevant scales
Keep pace with climate change through dynamic priorities e.g. restoration now while net carbon and biodiversity gain but revising boundaries/locations of designated areas in future?
Provide incentives for farmers to group together where interventions need to be carried out at larger scales
Build on success of initiatives like EA’s Common Ground initiative & Land Care – something we need to do anyway?

Future upland restoration scheme
Demand and supply: UK based credits with multiple benefits that can be used for CSR and team building
CSR pilot scheme
Working towards VCS accreditation but need to overcome methane and legislative barriers
New 5 year project to investigate methane emissions but we should have data for VCS within 18 months
Targeting companies who want to benefit climate, biodiversity and water quality without the need for carbon credits e.g. Water companies

Conclusion
Ideas for discussion – we don’t have all the answers yet
Start of longer-term conversation that can inform future work
IUCN policy review by our team with Philip Lowe, Andrew Moxey, Clunie Keenleyside and others
Publication for land owners and managers in collaboration with Moorland Forum, Heather Trust and RICS
Please take one:
RELU Policy & Practice Notes

Workshop
1. Write your reactions to the ideas we’ve collected so far, and add your own new ideas:
What are the strengths or weaknesses of this idea?
How could this idea be further developed to make it work more effectively in practice?
2. Put sticky dots next to the ideas you like best

Contact
www.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Follow us on:
www.twitter.com/reluuplands
Email: sustainableuplands@see.leeds.ac.uk
Call or text on: 0797 428 6778

Sustainable Uplands End of Project presentation given at Moffat House Hotel, May 2010

by Mark Reed on May 04, 2010

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Sustainable Uplands End of Project presentation given at Moffat House Hotel, May 2010 — Presentation Transcript