This document outlines possible trends in 5 different media - television, distribution, content, print media, and radio - over the next few years. For each medium, it lists 5 factors that may impact its future development. Some key predictions include: multi-TV households will increase as set prices decline; specialized digital content will grow; content will remain important but target smaller audiences; advertising spend will need to directly increase visibility; and consolidation may lead to cartelization in radio. The document also speculates on impacts of new technologies like 3G and social media, as well as changing consumer behaviors. However, it notes many predictions will fail to materialize or remain wishful thinking.

1. 2010Forecasting MediaSome possible, some probable and some wishful thinking

2. 5 media

3. 5 factors for:

4. 1. Multi-TV HH’s will explodeAs cost of sets go down, multi TV HH’s will increaseDTH providers will offer free TV’s with a DTH connection to increase penetration of their consumer base 

5. 2. Distribution will be the new mediaSpecialised content for the digital platform will make its presence felt – more headaches for the plannerHITS (subject to government interference) will revolutionise the distribution businessPay-per-view for new movies – a distinct possibilityNational channels – region wise advertising – a distinct possibility

6. 3. Content will still be king – only kingdoms will become smallerSpecialised content – special audienceUnfortunately, regressive serials will continue to rule the manure heap still… After the explosion of news channels (where content cost is minimal) – there will be still more news channels covering serious issues like - MurariLal’s wife had a fight with her domestic help… who is guilty???

7. 4. Increased fragmentation2 TVR’s = IMPACT! - CPRP’s increaseIncreased on-screen integrations (leading to more irritation and hence fragmentation) as value-adds to negate the increasing CPRPTAM’s non-fct monitoring revenues will increaseCompetitive reports will have to include SHOOSE (Share of on screen elements) apart from SOV

8. 5. Optimisers will rise again and fail againAs a direct fallout of the increased fragmentation, Optimisers will again hold centrestageOver a period of time Media Planners and Advertisers will realise what Mutual Funds say all the time – “past indication is no guarantee for future returns”

9. 5 factors for:

10. 1. Front page premiums will disappearOK – this is wishful thinking, but, realistically, how many people remember the ad on the front page of today’s newspaper?And yet we pay fantastic premiums for it After a long time, there is a rationalisation of ratesAdvertisers will use this to ensure their visibility for key activities – but at their cost

11. 2. Spends => visibilityAfter Volkswagon has shown us how not to use advertising spends on Print, this will be the new Mantra for all Print partnersThe trend will be encouraged by all Print houses – higher spends => higher visibility => higher efficiencies (?????)

12. 3. Readership surveys will get more effectiveThe mast head method’s fallacies will be discussed – and brushed under the carpetMethods to determine readership of different pages will also be discussed and discardedAccountability of costs will be discussed once again – and brushed under the carpet yet againAnd yes, readership surveys will continue to be used for all product ownership data rather than readership data

13. 4. Customising of contentAfter the choice of subscription offers of newspapers (TOI+MM or TOI+ET) we will see a customisation of supplements where readers get to choose the supplements they wantA customised magazine will be launched whose content will be driven by individual choice and not by what is popular (oops…. wishful thinking again) Hence India Today could be a sports magazine for me and a political magazine for my father (two copies, same magazine name)

14. 5. Print media will follow some ethical practicesActually all media should…Hence advertising will be advertising and news should be newsImpact of sensationalism will reduce (Hence we can read the Mumbai Mirror and not worry about what our children will see/ read in it)

15. 5 factors for:

16. 1. The overpriced licenses will meet with no new takersIf the bid for new licenses happens, unlike the IPL, there won’t be too many biddersCartelisation/ shake-out a distinct possibility

17. 2. There is life beyond musicAnd no, we are not talking some of the gibberish that gets spoken in the name of rj mentions/ chatThink of it – why is Oprah Winfrey such a big hit on TV? Not for her looks – right?

18. 3. Local clients will use the media more than national clientsLets face it, the most eligible clientele for radio is the local advertiser, and yet, what is the contribution of local to national advertising on radio?

19. 4. News on Radio will compete against TV news channelsIn India currently news cannot be telecast on private fm channelsOnce that changes – local news will become the biggest drawthereby affecting the affinity of local news channels as this would be news on the go

20. 5. Consolidation and CartelisationIf allowed, stations will sell out to the deeper pocketsOne may see the cartelisation of stations in a bid to increase yield

21. 5 factors for:

22. 1. Movies will not be the only thing shown in theatresLive events, sporting extravaganza’s will all be telecast in cinema halls

23. 2. Film festivals will become the next attraction for consumersSoon we will have theme based cinema festivals – hence kids movie festivals in the summer, action festivals in the last show etc

24. 3. Language will no longer be the barrierWith more movies than ever being dubbed, language barriers will cease to exist and cinema will become universal

25. 4. Investing in new talent will increaseWith “hit formulas” no longer being guaranteed, new (read low cost) talent will become the new flavour for financers

26. 5. While distribution increases, so will fragmentationWith digital transmission by players like UFO, the number of shows for new movies is more than ever beforeHowever, as the canvas for the consumers widens, so also will the fragmentationWho knows, maybe consumers will decide which movie they want to see at a particular time and venue

27. 5 factors for:

28. 1. 3G will drive net penetration faster than the PC ever hasWith improving technology, even lower end handsets will improve and be 3G enabledThe power of the net will explode into the hands of millions of consumers quite literally

29. 2. Mobile advertising will outpace the net in IndiaMore unavoidable than the netHence assured eyeballsCurrently advertising on the mobile restricted to Push smsTechnology will enable richer advertising on more handsets

30. 3. Social networking marketing will fail for 9 out of 10 advertisersAlready happening

31. Points 4 & 5Even I cant guess these…When I do, will update them 

32. 4.

33. 5.