Populism 2007 For Pozorblog

The Dynamics of Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic Kevin Deegan-Krause Wayne State University Detroit, Michigan, USA

A Brief Agenda
Populism in General
Definitions
Consequences
Populism and Issue Dimensions
Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic
A Brief History of Slovak and Czech Populism
Slovak and Czech Populism Today
Bad Guesses About the Future

Populism in General: Definitions My Ally + Voters = Popul ar My Opponent + Voters = Popul ist

Inherent Pathology
Lang: Over simplification
Papadopolous: Over promising
Tismaneanu: False reality
Populism in General: Definitions

Empirical Analysis
Kurt Weyland:
“ left-out” voters, direct appeal, bypassing institutions
Margaret Canovan:
“ appeal to the people, against the power structure”
Cas Mudde:
“ pure people v. corrupt elite”

Organizational
Strong leader who seeks
direct tie with voters
Stylistic
Appeals that are moralistic
and idiosyncratic
Programmatic
Attacks all elites per se
on behalf of “the people”
Not
Consensual leadership
or party institutionalization
Not
Pragmatic compromise
or systematic programs
Not
Attacks only on some elites
or on behalf of some groups

Populism in General: Definitions Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people

Is “Populism” a concept worth using?
On one hand
It is tainted
There is little inherent linkage
On the other hand
Everybody does it
Connection practical if not inherent

Populism in General: Consequences
Is Populism worth fearing?
Canovan’s Shadow of democracy. These characteristics have positives and negatives.
Strong leader Direct Approach Morality Selectivity Opposing “Bad” Elites Defending the People Strong leader Weak Institutions Moralism Idiosyncracy Opposing “Good” Elites Pandering to the Mass

Populism in General: Consequences
Is Populism worth fearing? Defining “The People”
Imprecise terminology to cover the notion of an undefined “us” who need the trains to run on time, and a “them” who block it in the name of democratic procedures that we simply cannot afford “ The People” Not “The People” Compatible Position Poor Rich Economic Left Co-ethnics Domestic ethnic groups and co-ethnic “traitors” Nationalism Radical Right Co-citizens Foreign powers and their domestic “agents” Isolationism Euroskepticism Anti-Americanism Believers Non-believers Fundamentalism Well-behaved Criminals Law and Order “ The Besieged” “ The Obstructionists” Authoritarianism

Populism in General: Issue Divides
Populism and Other Issues: Petr Ucen’s Analysis
Other Issue Positions of Populist Parties Nationalist 70% Authoritarian 60% Xenophobic 43% Social 37% None 30%

Populism and Other Issues: Petr Ucen’s Analysis
Issue Combinations of Populist Parties Authoritarian/National 60% Authoritarian/Xenophobic 43% Xenophobic/National 43% Social/National 37% Social/Authoritarian 27% Social/Xenophobic 10%

Populism and No Other Issues?
Petr Ucen
Alan Sikk

Populism in General: Issue Divides Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Anti-elite program hard to sustain while in power

Dynamics: Populism’s Tragic Flaw
Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal

Dynamics: Compensating for Populism’s Tragic Flaw
Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal Clientelistic or Other Appeal

Dynamics: Compensating for Populism’s Tragic Flaw
Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal Other Programmatic Appeal Clientelistic or Other Appeal

Dynamics: Permanence
left right Populism in General: Issue Divides

Dynamics: Permanence
national cosmopolitan Populism in General: Issue Divides

Dynamics: The permanence of the ephemeral
non-populist populist Populism in General: Issue Divides

Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides
Dynamics: The permanence of the ephemeral
Populist Party 1 Populist Party 2 Populist Party 3

Macro Level Evidence?
Rapid Decline Once in Power
Rapid Replacement

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once in Power

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Lithuania
Populism in General: Issue Divides Colored boxes denote new parties

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Bulgaria

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Estonia

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement-Latvia

Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Framework

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Moralistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Idiosyncratic Stylistic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Programmatic Framework

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Moralistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Idiosyncratic Stylistic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Programmatic ZRS 1994 Score=18 or 100% SDL 1994 Score=12 or 50% Example

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment Year Characteristic HZDS KDH DU SDK SDKU ANO SNS SDL ZRS SOP Smer KSS SMK 1992 strong leader 3 2 2 2 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 2 1 2 places morality over pragmatism 3 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 2 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 1 3 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 2 2 Sum 15 10 13 11 11 1994 strong leader 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 avoids constraining organization 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 places morality over pragmatism 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 Sum 14 9 12 15 11 18 10 1998 strong leader 3 2 3 1 2 1 avoids constraining organization 1 2 2 3 3 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 2 2 1 3 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 2 3 2 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 1 2 2 Sum 13 11 15 10 15 10 2002 strong leader 3 1 2 3 3 3 1 1 avoids constraining organization 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 attacks all elites 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 Sum 14 8 10 16 18 17 12 10 2006 strong leader 3 1 2 3 3 1 avoids constraining organization 2 1 2 2 2 1 places morality over pragmatism 1 3 2 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 3 1 1 3 2 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 1 2 3 3 2 attacks all elites 3 1 1 3 3 2 Sum 14 8 10 17 15 10

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment Year Characteristic ODS ODA US SZ KDU- CSL CSSD KSCM LSU HSD- SMS SPR- RSC Dek. Od. 1992 strong leader 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 3 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 Sum 10 10 8 13 11 11 11 18 1996 strong leader 2 2 1 3 1 3 avoids constraining organization 1 2 1 1 1 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 3 2 3 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 3 Sum 9 10 8 13 11 18 1998 strong leader 3 2 1 3 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 Sum 11 10 8 12 11 2002 strong leader 3 1 1 2 1 2 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 3 attacks all elites 2 1 1 1 3 3 Sum 12 9 8 9 11 17 2006 strong leader 2 3 1 2 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 3 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 2 1 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 3 2 attacks all elites 2 3 1 1 3 Sum 11 15 8 10 11

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Is There a Populism Issue Divide?
What would we expect to see if there were?

Macro Patterns: Rapid Replacement?

Macro Patterns: Rapid Decline Once In Power?
Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides ZRS SOP ANO Smer

Micro Patterns: Satisfaction followed by disillusion

Departing members of ANO more likely than continuing members to believe that:
Powerful do not care about me (16%)
Elections offer a chance for people like me to have a say (16%)
Politicians behave with restraint (13%)

Departing members of Smer not more likely than continuing members to believe the same propositions Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

 Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Has Smer “routinized” its populism?
Evidence:
In institutional development
New party organization
New name: Smer-Social Democracy
Choice of redistribution tolerant partners
In the electorate
Leftist leanings
Poor v. rich
Stronger redistributionist profile among all voters
Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

Has Smer Routinized Populism? ZRS ANO Smer Time  Non-Routinized Populism Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

ZRS ANO Smer New Party or Parties Time  Non-Routinized Populism Has Smer Routinized Populism? Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

ZRS ANO Smer Routinized Populism Time  SOP Has Smer Routinized Populism? Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

All material used here availalable at www.pozorblog.com Kevin Deegan-Krause Wayne State University Detroit, Michigan, USA [email_address]

Populism 2007 For Pozorblog

by kdecay on Oct 28, 2007

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