For students of Sociology especially those who are currently doing CAPE Sociology Unit 2

1. How applicable is the Demographic Transition
Theory to Caribbean population and society?
The Demographic Theory can be defined as the transition from high birth and death rate
rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an
industrial economic. Demographic transition is also explained as a model of population
change, which suggest that countries move from a slow population growth stage, with
high birth and high death rates, to a stage of rapid population growth, when death rates
drop, and then to a stage of slow population growth, as birth rates also fall. In the fourth
stage, both birth rates and death rates are low. In recent years, demographers and
geographers have added a fifth stage. Numerous attempts have been made to apply
the demographic transition model to the Caribbean islands. For example, studies have
proven that due to the technological development of Barbados, high birth and death
rates have been dramatically reduced. It is in this context that this writer will examine
the extent to which the theory can be applied to the Caribbean.
The first stage of the (DTT) shows where both the death and births rates were high.
This was so because of the era in which it is placed. This was during the 19th century
where not much technology was to the disposal of the people, to care for the needs of
individuals and the society was not well educated about healthy procedures. In that time
they lacked family planning so persons had no way of controlling their fertility rates even
if the pregnancy was unwanted they had no way to stop it. There was also rarely any
medication and lacked health care to treat disease which resulted in a high mortality
rate which affected the population growth. In the early 19th century religion and
traditional cultural practises played a major part in the lives of the citizens. In most
religions a child is seen as a gift of God so they would have children which were said to
be blessings. This era also did not see the importance of hygiene and how it also
contributed to maintaining a healthy lifestyle. In this stage, islands such a St. Kitts,
Nevis, Antigua and Monserrat gained population as a result of the triangular trade
institutionalized by the sugar plantation system. It is also in this stage that acculturation

2. began, and as Reddock (2001) stated that, “…race relations during this time were
antagonistic and volatile, as whites and Africans mistrusted and despised one another.
In stage two, countries begin to industrialize, and death rates decreased rapidly. The
decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors: improved food production and
improved health and sanitation. Food production is improved through more efficient
agricultural practices and better transportation and food distribution, which collectively
prevent death due to starvation and lack of water. Health is improved through medical
progress as well as more advanced sanitation methods, especially water supply,
sewerage, food handling, and general personal hygiene. As death rates fall, birth rates
remain high, resulting in a population explosion. Population growth in this stage is not
due to increasing fertility, but to decreasing deaths: many people continue to be born,
but more of them now live longer. Falling death rates also change the age structure of
the population. In stage one; mortality is especially high among children between 5 and
10 years old. The decline in death rates in stage two improves the odds of survival for
children. Hence, the age structure of the population becomes increasingly youthful. In
Western Europe, stage two occurred during the 19th century with the Industrial
Revolution. Many other developed countries entered stage two during the second half of
the 20th century, creating the recent worldwide population explosion. In this stage, there
was the rise of anti-slavery sentiments and movements both in Europe and in the
Caribbean. In the Francophone island of St Domingue (Haiti), there was widespread
and open hostility among the three major groups- Gran Blanc (Whites), Mulattoes
(Coloureds) and the Blacks. This led to Smith’s conclusion that West Indian societies
were plural. However the events and population structure of the Caribbean at this time
did not fit the mould which was specified by the DTT.
During the post-industrial stage or stage three, birth rates fall, eventually balancing the
lower death rates. Falling birth rates coincide with many other social and economic
changes, such as better access to contraception, higher wages, urbanization,
commercialization of agriculture, a reduction in the value of children's work, and greater
parental investment in the education of children. Increasing female literacy and

3. employment lower the uncritical acceptance of childbearing and motherhood as
measures of the status of women. Although the correlation between birth rates and
these changes is widely observed, it is not certain whether industrialization and
higher incomes lead to lower population, or whether lower populations lead to
industrialization and higher incomes. As birth rates fall, the age structure of the
population changes again. Families have fewer children to support, decreasing the
youth dependency ratio. But as people live longer, the population as a whole grows
older, creating a higher rate of old-age dependency. During the period between the
decline in youth dependency and rise in old-age dependency, there is a demographic
window of opportunity called the demographic dividend: the population has fewer
dependents (young and old) and a higher proportion of working-age adults, yielding
increased economic growth. This phenomenon can further the correlation between
demographic transition and economic development. With regard to population transition,
during this period there was a marked decline in the proportion of the white segment
and an increase in non-whites (chiefly Africans and East Indians). The Africans were left
free to procreate, and as scholars like Smith suggest, the prominence of matrifocality
encouraged an increased an increase in fertility and birth rates. In Trinidad there was
also a notable increase in the East Indian population. Again, it can be seen that the DTT
fell short in its assumptions of universal application of the theory as this stage is
supposed to experience a low death rate and falling birth rates, but we know almost
absolutely, that in this period, both were high.
During stage four, population growth stabilizes as birth rates fall into line with death
rates. In some cases, birth rates may even drop below replacement level, resulting in a
shrinking population. Death rates in developed countries may remain consistently low or
increase slightly due to lifestyle diseases related to low exercise levels and high obesity
and an aging population. As population growth slows, the large generations born during
the previous stages put a growing economic burden on the smaller, younger working
population. Thus, some countries in stage four may have difficulty funding pensions and
providing benefits for retirees. Though there have been drastic decreases in both birth

4. and death rates in the Caribbean, over the last decades, it is important to note that the
population of the islands have remained fairly stagnant.
Like all other theories, what followed was a load of criticisms and the DTT was no
different. Firstly, the theory itself is too simplistic; since it sees human progress in a
unilinear pattern with changes occurring in a predictable manner (i.e. one after the
other) It is not wise to make such assumptions, especially when dealing with human
beings and society, two things famously known for being dynamic. It is this same
simplicity, according to Weber, which is characteristic of the functionalist and Marxist
theories of social change. Secondly, the theory is very Eurocentric in addition; it fails to
account for the changes in other parts of the world and more specifically, the Caribbean.
Lastly, the role played by institutions other that culture and technology in shaping rates
of births and deaths has been undervalued; for example, in the post Republic period of
Trinidad, the island experienced an significant increase in the literacy rates and a
decrease in birth rates mainly attributed to the increase and diversification of
educational institutions.
As Coale has noted, “despite many objections, qualifications, and doubts about the
demographic transition, the force of the generalization remains. Its greatest strength is
the prediction that the transition will occur in every society which is experiencing
modernization; its greatest weakness its inability to forecast this precisely.” It is exactly
for this reason that the writer firmly believes that while the DTT may provide a good
guide to population transition in 19th century Europe, it may is not the best population
theory that can be applied to the Caribbean.
By: Neeshad Justin Mohammed
6:2 Humanities, Law and Social Sciences
Barrackpore West Secondary School