India At Inflection Point,VPM Thane

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  • India At Inflection Point,VPM Thane

    1. 1. India - At Inflection Point Shantanu Bhagwat The contents of this presentation and the opinions expressed therein (unless stated otherwise), are the intellectual property of Shantanu Bhagwat and should not be used, quoted, transmitted or distributed in any form or manner, without the explicit and written consent of the author. © Shantanu Bhagwat, 2006 Email: shantanu20ATgmail.com
    2. 2. Agenda <ul><li>India - at an Inflection Point </li></ul><ul><li>The “re-discovery” of India </li></ul><ul><li>An ancient tradition of science, maths and technology </li></ul><ul><li>Why India is more than a “blip” on the world’s radar </li></ul><ul><li>The world in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>A Role Model for the 21 st century </li></ul>The contents of this presentation and the opinions expressed therein (unless stated otherwise), are the intellectual property of Shantanu Bhagwat and should not be used, quoted, transmitted or distributed in any form or manner, without the explicit and written consent of the author. © Shantanu Bhagwat, 2006 Email: [email_address]
    3. 3. “ The Rise of India ”
    4. 4. Agenda <ul><li>India - at an Inflection Point </li></ul><ul><li>The “re-discovery” of India </li></ul><ul><li>An ancient tradition of science, mathematics and technology </li></ul><ul><li>Why India is more than a “blip” on the world’s radar </li></ul><ul><li>The world in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>A Role Model for the 21st century </li></ul>
    5. 5. India - at an Inflection Point… * Source WEFA-WMM, BHP Billiton Slides ** Economic Times, 8 th Jul ‘05 Breaking through the 4% barrier… <ul><li>Average length of new highways built between 1947 ~ 1997: </li></ul><ul><li>Average length of highways built between 1999 ~ 2004: </li></ul>Trivia** 11kms per year 11kms per day
    6. 6. <ul><li>Apr ’03 ~ 2k new subs/ months </li></ul><ul><li>Apr ’04 ~ 2m new subs/ months </li></ul>India - at an Inflection Point… Source: Nokia, “New Horizons”, Q2 ’05 http://sifybroadband.techwhack.com/category/hutch/ New Additions in Apr ’06: 3.9m (5.1m including CDMA); At end-Apr ’06, total no. of subscribers at 90m+; Forecast CAGR between ’04 – ’07 ~ 85%
    7. 7. India - at an Inflection Point… Growth in Tele-density Source: Capitaline, SBIMF; CAGR between ’92 – ’06 ~ 23% % Tele-density Net Profit of all Listed Cos. Rs Cr. CAGR (’00 – ’06) ~ 26%
    8. 8. India - at an Inflection Point… Stupendous Growth in Consumer Electronics Source: FICCI
    9. 9. Agenda <ul><li>India - at an Inflection Point </li></ul><ul><li>The “re-discovery” of India </li></ul><ul><li>An ancient tradition of science, mathematics and technology </li></ul><ul><li>Why India is more than a “blip” on the world’s radar </li></ul><ul><li>The world in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>A Role Model for the 21st century </li></ul>
    10. 10. The Re-Discovery of India… <ul><li>&quot;China and India combined to produce nearly half the world's economic output in 1820 compared to just 1.8% for the U.S.  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Michael Milken, Wall Street Journal, Sept ‘06 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In 1830s, Bengal alone had 100,000 schools and a fairly advanced indigenous medical system that included inoculation against small-pox* </li></ul><ul><li>… not just that, the literary rate in India before the British (c. 18 th century) was higher than that in England* </li></ul>Source: http://www.newindpress.com/column/News.asp?Topic=-97&Title=S%2EGurumurthy&ID=IE620061115230938&nDate=&Sub=&Cat
    11. 11. The Re-Discovery of India… <ul><li>“ While India produced about 25 percent of world industrial output in 1750, this figure had fallen to only 2 percent by 1900.“ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ India’s Deindustrialisation in the 18th and 19th Centuries”, David Clingingsmith and Jeffrey G Williamson </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ In essence, the Honourable East India Company found India rich and left it poor” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ L oot: In Search of the East India Company”, Nick Robins </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ After two centuries of Western domination, China and India are poised to claim their places” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ The Great Reverse”, Clyde Prestowitz </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Agenda <ul><li>India - at an Inflection Point </li></ul><ul><li>The “re-discovery” of India </li></ul><ul><li>An ancient tradition of science, mathematics and technology </li></ul><ul><li>Why India is more than a “blip” on the world’s radar </li></ul><ul><li>The world in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>A Role Model for the 21st century </li></ul>
    13. 13. The Hindu Contribution to Science and Mathematics <ul><li>Indians invented the number system and gave the world the very powerful concept of zero </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demonstrates extraordinary ability for abstract thinking </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Takshashila was the world’s first university (700 BC) and offered more than 60 subjects to students from all over the world </li></ul><ul><li>Four hundred years before Newton, Bhaskaracharya II described the gravitational properties of earth in Siddhanta Siromani </li></ul><ul><li>Aryabhatta was the first person ever to explain the spherical shape, size ,diameter, rotation & speed of Earth in 499 AD </li></ul>
    14. 14. The Hindu Contribution to Science and Mathematics <ul><li>MahaRishi Sushruta (Sushruta-smahita) and physicians of his time (c 600 BC) conducted complicated surgeries like caesareans, cataract, artificial limbs, fractures, urinary stones and possibly plastic surgery. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Usage of anaesthesia was well known in ancient India. Over 125 surgical equipments were in use </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Boudhayana calculated the value of “pi” explained the concept behind “Pythagoras’ Theorem” in the 6th century </li></ul><ul><li>Quadratic equations were known and explained by Sridharacharya as early as the 11th century. </li></ul>Fore more information, please read: http://in.rediff.com/news/2003/aug/22kak.htm and http://karigar.sulekha.com/blog/post/2006/12/karnataki-karbon-nanotube-swords-forget-s-indian.htm
    15. 15. Agenda <ul><li>India - at an Inflection Point </li></ul><ul><li>The “re-discovery” of India </li></ul><ul><li>An ancient tradition of science, mathematics and technology </li></ul><ul><li>Why India is more than a “blip” on the world’s radar </li></ul><ul><li>The world in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>A Role Model for the 21st century </li></ul>
    16. 16. Why this is more than a “blip”… A demographics-driven , consumer-led growth… Population (m)
    17. 17. Why this is more than a “blip”… * Stephen Roach, Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley. May ’06 http://us.rediff.com/money/2006/may/12spec.htm ** Consumer expenditure as % of GDP (67% of GDP); Second only to US (70%); China – 42% Demographics Consumer Spend Infrastructure Spend <ul><li>More than 45% of population under the age of 20 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Post-liberalization children coming of age… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Consumer spend increased at a CAGR of 12% over the last decade </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Today, at 67% of GDP, second only to US globally** </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Growth under-pinned by massive investments in infrastructure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>~ $170 - $190bn + over next 5 years </li></ul></ul>“… the Indian economy is going through an absolutely critical point in its own transition”*
    18. 18. Why this is more than a “blip”… … making India the third largest economy in the world by 2035 Together, these factors will lead to sustained GDP growth over the next decade and several years after… Demographics Consumer Spend Infrastructure Spend 6% ~ 8% GDP Growth 3 rd largest economy in the world ~ 2035 2005 - 2015 2005 - 2015
    19. 19. Agenda <ul><li>India - at an Inflection Point </li></ul><ul><li>The “re-discovery” of India </li></ul><ul><li>An ancient tradition of science, mathematics and technology </li></ul><ul><li>Why India is more than a “blip” on the world’s radar </li></ul><ul><li>The world in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>A Role Model for the 21st century </li></ul>
    20. 20. The World in 2050… Source: http://doku.cac.at/world_by_geography_2.jpg
    21. 21. The World in 2050… Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Nov ’04 (“The scrutable East”, Marc H. Goedhart, Timothy Koller, Nicolas C. Leung Forecast GDP ($ trillions)
    22. 22. Agenda <ul><li>India - at an Inflection Point </li></ul><ul><li>The “re-discovery” of India </li></ul><ul><li>An ancient tradition of science, mathematics and technology </li></ul><ul><li>Why India is more than a “blip” on the world’s radar </li></ul><ul><li>The world in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>A Role Model for the 21st century </li></ul>
    23. 23. A role model for the 21 st century <ul><li>“ What is needed is a new global ethical and spiritual role model, and…the best candidate to fill that spot is India” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ The Dangers of Monotheism in the Age of Globalization”, Jean-Pierre Lehmann </li></ul></ul><ul><li>&quot;It is already becoming clear that a chapter which had a Western beginning will have to have an Indian ending, if it is not to end in the self-destruction of the human race“ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dr Arnold Toynbee, renowned historian </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Questions, Comments? Shantanu Bhagwat @ www.global-themes.com The contents of this presentation and the opinions expressed therein (unless stated otherwise), are the intellectual property of Shantanu Bhagwat and should not be used, quoted, transmitted or distributed in any form or manner, without the explicit and written consent of the author. © Shantanu Bhagwat, 2006 Email: shantanu20ATgmail.com

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