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Explaining global variations in demographic indicators
environmental political cultural welfare education health Stages of  development
Rostow Model - the Stages of economic development    <ul><li>This is a linear theory of development. Economies can be divi...
Population Change over Time
<ul><li>In  demography , the term  demographic transition  is a theory describing a possible transition from high  birth r...
Stage 1 <ul><li>In pre-industrial society death rates and birth rates were both high and fluctuated rapidly according to n...
Stage 2 <ul><li>This stage leads to a fall in death rates and increase in population. </li></ul>
Stage 3 <ul><li>Stage Three moves the population towards stability through a decline in the birth rate  </li></ul>
Stage 4 <ul><li>Traditionally many demographers have assumed that the demographic transition would be complete when popula...
Stage 5???? <ul><li>The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages, but it is now widely accepted that a f...
The implications of population change <ul><li>Sustainable population </li></ul><ul><li>Optimum population </li></ul><ul><l...
Three models of the impact of population growth <ul><li>Malthus 1798 </li></ul><ul><li>Boserup 1865 </li></ul><ul><li>Club...
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Explaining variations in global demographic indicators

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Transcript of "Explaining variations in global demographic indicators"

  1. 1. Explaining global variations in demographic indicators
  2. 2. environmental political cultural welfare education health Stages of development
  3. 3. Rostow Model - the Stages of economic development  <ul><li>This is a linear theory of development. Economies can be divided into primary secondary and tertiary sectors. The history of developed countries suggests a common pattern of structural change: </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 1 Traditional Society subsistence economic activity ie output is consumed by producers rather than traded, but is consumed by those who produce it; trade by barter where goods are exchanged they are 'swapped'; Agriculture is the most important industry and production is labour intensive, using only limited quantities of capital.  </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 2 Transitional Stage (the preconditions for takeoff) Surpluses for trading emerge supported by an emerging transport infrastructure. Savings and investment grow. Entrepreneurs emerge.  </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 3 Take Off Industrialisation increases, with workers switching form the land to manufacturing. Growth is concentrated in a few regions of the country and in one or two industries. New political and social institutions are evolve to support industrialisation.  </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 4 Drive to Maturity Growth is now diverse supported by technological innovation. </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 5 High Mass Consumption </li></ul>
  4. 4. Population Change over Time
  5. 5. <ul><li>In demography , the term demographic transition is a theory describing a possible transition from high birth rates and death rates to low birth and death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy . Usually it is described through the &quot;Demographic Transition Model&quot; (DTM) that describes the population changes over time. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson of prior observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years. Most developed countries are already in stage four of the model, the majority of developing countries are in stage 2 or stage 3, and no country is currently still in stage 1 </li></ul>
  6. 6. Stage 1 <ul><li>In pre-industrial society death rates and birth rates were both high and fluctuated rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population. Children contributed to the economy of the household from an early age as they did such work as carrying messages, water, younger siblings, firewood, sweeping, washing dishes and preparing food and some work in the fields. As the cost of raising children was hardly more than the cost of feeding them, as they had no educational or entertainment expenses and, in equatorial Africa, did not even require clothes, this cost barely exceeded their contribution to the household. In addition, as they became adults they became a major input into the family business, mainly farming, and were the major form of insurance in old age. In India an adult son was all that prevented a widow from falling into destitution. While death rates remained high there was no question as to the need for children, even if the means to prevent them had existed </li></ul>
  7. 7. Stage 2 <ul><li>This stage leads to a fall in death rates and increase in population. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Stage 3 <ul><li>Stage Three moves the population towards stability through a decline in the birth rate </li></ul>
  9. 9. Stage 4 <ul><li>Traditionally many demographers have assumed that the demographic transition would be complete when populations reached similarly low birth and death rates so that populations would become essentially stable, although no convincing social mechanism has been put forward for this view </li></ul>
  10. 10. Stage 5???? <ul><li>The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages, but it is now widely accepted that a fifth stage is needed to represent countries who have undergone the economic transition from manufacturing based industries into service and information based industries called deindustrialization . Countries such as Germany , Italy , Spain , Portugal , Greece and most notably Japan , whose populations are now reproducing well below their replacement levels, that is they are not producing enough children to replace their parent's generation. China , South Korea , Hong Kong , Singapore , Thailand and Cuba are also below replacement, but this is not producing a fall in population yet in these countries, because their populations are relatively young due to strong growth in the recent past. The population of southern Europe is already falling and Japan and some of western Europe will soon begin to fall without significant immigration. However, many countries that now have sub-replacement fertility did not reach this stage gradually but rather suddenly as a result of economic crisis brought on by the post-communist transition in the late 1980's and the 1990's. Examples include Russia , Ukraine , and the Baltic States . The population of these countries is falling due to fertility decline, emigration and, particularly in Russia, increased male mortality. </li></ul>
  11. 11. The implications of population change <ul><li>Sustainable population </li></ul><ul><li>Optimum population </li></ul><ul><li>Underpopulation </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainable development </li></ul>
  12. 12. Three models of the impact of population growth <ul><li>Malthus 1798 </li></ul><ul><li>Boserup 1865 </li></ul><ul><li>Club of Rome 1972 </li></ul>

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