Becoming Your Own Futurist

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    Becoming Your Own Futurist - Presentation Transcript

    1. Becoming Your Own Futurist
      Paul Schumann
      Glocal Vantage Inc.
    2. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      2
      Topics
      The Future
      Types of Futures
      Insight Into the Future
      Knowing Yourself
      Insight & Creativity
    3. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      3
      Topics
      The Future
      Types of Futures
      Insight Into the Future
      Knowing Yourself
      Insight & Creativity
    4. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      4
      Types of Futuring
      What are possible futures?
      Can we find a path to get to those futures?
      What is the trend?
      What may affect the trend?
      What are the potential futures?
      Future 2
      Normative
      Today
      Future 1
      Projective
    5. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      5
      Topics
      The Future
      Types of Futures
      Insight Into the Future
      Knowing Yourself
      Insight & Creativity
    6. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      6
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
    7. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      7
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
    8. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      8
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
    9. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      9
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
    10. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      10
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
    11. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      11
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
      • First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)
      • Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)
      • Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)
    12. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      12
      The Four Futures
      Technology Life Cycle
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
      • Nonproductive (25 years)
      • Counter Productive (25 years)
      • Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)
    13. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      13
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
    14. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      14
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
    15. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      15
      EPIC 2015
      EPIC by Robin Sloan & Matt Thompson, http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/epic (2005)
    16. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      16
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
    17. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      17
      The Four Futures
      Simple
      Cyclical
      Chaotic
      Complex
      Earthquakes
    18. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      18
      Topics
      The Future
      Types of Futures
      Insight Into the Future
      Knowing Yourself
      Insight & Creativity
    19. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      19
      Four Causes of Reality
      First Cause: Material
      Second Cause: Formal
      Third Cause: Efficient
      Fourth Cause: Final (Purpose)
    20. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      20
      Driving Forces
      Demographic
      Sociopolitical
      Technological
      Economic
    21. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      21
      Demographic
      Population Growth
      Age Distribution
      Multiculturalism
    22. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      22
      Population Growth
    23. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      23
      Age Distribution
      Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Education
      in America 2000 - 2020
    24. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      24
      Sociopolitical
      Openness
      Smart Mobs
      Innovation Commons
      Gender Equity
      Decentralization
      Pluralism
      Paradoxical
      Non-Career Lives
    25. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      25
      Technological
      Infocom Technologies
      Internet
      Personal Devices
      Wireless Digital
      Location Sensors
      Embedded Infocom Devices
      New Software Applications
      Genomics
      Nanomaterials
      Nanomachines
    26. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      26
      Internet Users
    27. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      27
      Economic
      Growth
      Innovation
      Service
      Virtual Integration
      Glocality
      Games
    28. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      28
      Nature of Work
      Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Education
      in America 2000 - 2020
    29. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      29
      Economic Maturation of Technology
      Nonproductive (25 years)
      Counter Productive (25 years)
      Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)
    30. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      30
      Developing Foresight
      Planning
      Implementation
      Decision/Question
      Qualitative
      Quantitative
      Time
      Probability
      Output
      Techniques
      Projective
      Normative
      Assumptions
      Data
      Insight
      Judgement
      Inputs
    31. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      31
      Techniques to Improve Foresight
      Surveillance
      Trend Analysis
      Expert Opinion
      Integrative
    32. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      32
      Techniques to Improve Foresight
      Surveillance
      Trend Analysis
      Expert Opinion
      Integrative
      Scanning
      Monitoring
      Tracking
    33. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      33
      Surveillance
      Moving away
      Moving
      tangentially
      Moving towards
      Scanning
      Monitoring
      Tracking
      Not moving,
      getting smaller
      Not moving, getting larger
    34. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      34
      Techniques to Improve Foresight
      Surveillance
      Trend Analysis
      Expert Opinion
      Integrative
      Analogy
      Precursor developments
      Trend extrapolation
      Limit curve
      Substitution analysis
      Multiple substitution analysis
    35. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      35
      Techniques to Improve Foresight
      Surveillance
      Trend Analysis
      Expert Opinion
      Integrative
      Interviews
      Surveys
      Groups
    36. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      36
      Techniques to Improve Foresight
      Scenarios
      SWOT
      Opportunity/Threat Analysis
      Cross Impact Analysis
      Innovation Map
      Mathematical models
      Road Map
      Four Laws
      Future Frequencies
      Surveillance
      Trend Analysis
      Expert Opinion
      Integrative
    37. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      37
      Topics
      The Future
      Types of Futures
      Insight Into the Future
      Knowing Yourself
      Insight & Creativity
    38. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      38
      Knowing Yourself
      Be Aware
      Temperament
      Blind Spots
      Values & Information
      The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible
    39. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      39
    40. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      40
      Knowing Yourself
      Be Aware
      Temperament
      Blind Spots
      Values & Information
      The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible
    41. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      41
      Temperament
      NT
      “Rationalists”
      SJ
      “Guardian”
      NF
      “Idealists”
      SP
      “Artisans”
    42. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      42
      Knowing Yourself
      Be Aware
      Temperament
      Blind Spots
      Values & Information
      The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible
    43. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      43
      Blind Spots
      Unknown
      Others
      Known
      Known
      Unknown
      Self
    44. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      44
      Knowing Yourself
      Be Aware
      Temperament
      Blind Spots
      Values & Information
      The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible
    45. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      45
      Values and Information
      Different
      Values
      Same
      Different
      Same
      Information
    46. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      46
      Knowing Yourself
      Be Aware
      Temperament
      Blind Spots
      Values & Information
      The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible
    47. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      47
      Topics
      The Future
      Types of Futures
      Insight Into the Future
      Knowing Yourself
      Insight & Creativity
    48. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      48
      Insight and Creativity
      Creativity
      Wisdom
      Knowledge
      Creativity
      Data
      Creativity
      Noise
      Information
    49. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      49
      “There is absolutely no inevitability as long as there is a willingness to contemplate what is happening.”
      Marshall McLuhan
    50. Paul Schumann
      PO Box 161475
      Austin, TX 78716
      512.632.6586
      paul.schumann@glocalvantage.com
      http://incollaboration.ning.com
      http://centexwfs.ning.com
      Glocal Vantage, Inc.
      50
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