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Presentation to GIBBS MBA class on Disruption and Innovation

This is a talk I did a few weeks back to a GIBBS MBA class. It covers a nice wide range on digital disruption and how to try and innovate in a disruptive world. It does acknowledge sources in the slides but I would specifically like to acknowledge:
- Mary Meeker - KPCB (multiple presentations)
- Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012 (Race against the machine)
- Govindarajan & Trimble 2010 (The other side of Innovation)
- Hobcraft 2012 (navigating-the-three-horizon-framework)

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Presentation to GIBBS MBA class on Disruption and Innovation

  1. 1. Innovation and Digital Disruption Brian Pinnock Product Strategy and Innovation 25 October 2013
  2. 2. Cutters, Makers, Refrigerators
  3. 3. AGENDA Dark side of Disruption Disrupting Business Models Guided Innovation
  4. 4. Moore’s Law 5
  5. 5. Transistors per Die 1010 Moore’s Law Intuitive linear view 1960 2010
  6. 6. No Moore’s Law for Software?
  7. 7. Artificial Intelligence
  8. 8. Dark Side of Disruption 25 October 2013
  9. 9. Exponential Growth 10
  10. 10. Race against the Machine Productivity Employment Source: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012
  11. 11. Index of US Growth GDP vs. Income GDP per capita has grown faster than real median household income Source: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012
  12. 12. US Job Growth by Decade Deep structural issues not just a consequence of the recession Source: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012
  13. 13. Race against the Machine Source: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012
  14. 14. Disrupting Lawyers Then Now Source: NY Times
  15. 15. Disrupting Pharmacists Then Now Source: Fast Company
  16. 16. Live Translation Then Now Source: NY Times
  17. 17. Disrupting Industrial Robots Then Now Source: Wired
  18. 18. Disrupting Driving Then Now Source: KPCB
  19. 19. Disrupting Business 25 October 2013
  20. 20. Evaluating Disruptions Is it easy to use? User Experience Does it enable people to connect in new ways? Is it useful? Business Model Ecosystem Value Does it tap new revenue streams? Is it done at a lower cost? Does it change the flow of value? Does it shift power from one player to another? How much of the old value proposition was just lettuce?
  21. 21. Disrupting Books and Publishing Then Now Source: KPCB
  22. 22. Disrupting Music Then Now Source: KPCB
  23. 23. Disrupting Print Media Then Now Source: KPCB
  24. 24. Disrupting Computing Devices Then Now Source: KPCB
  25. 25. Disrupting Photography Then Now Source: Bain
  26. 26. Disrupting Video Then Now Source: KPCB
  27. 27. Disrupting Retail Then Now Source: Tesco
  28. 28. Disrupting Point of Sale Then Now Source: KPCB
  29. 29. Disrupting Insurance Then Now Source: Scientific American
  30. 30. Disrupting Money Then Now Source: Bitcoin P2P
  31. 31. Disrupting Government 25 October 2013
  32. 32. Disrupting War Then Now Source: Strange Horizons
  33. 33. Disrupting Healthcare Access Then Now Source: KPCB
  34. 34. Disrupting Early Education Then Now Source: Economist – World in 2050
  35. 35. Disrupting Higher Education Then Now Source: Economist – World in 2050
  36. 36. Guided Innovation in a Disruptive World 25 October 2013
  37. 37. Innovation Myth An Aladdin's cave full of innovation treasure is available to anyone that has the secret password.
  38. 38. Innovation Innovation is a Smurf word
  39. 39. High Semi-Radical Process Innovation Radical Innovation Incremental Innovation Semi-Radical Technology Innovation Low Change in Business Process Types of Innovation High Low Change in Technology Source: Davila et al 2006
  40. 40. A Recipe for Innovation? Exert strong leadership on the strategy and portfolio Integrate innovation into the business mentality Integrate innovation into the business structures Align innovation with strategy Manage creativity and value capture Neutralize organizational antibodies Establish networks Use metrics and incentives Source: Davila et al 2006
  41. 41. Types of Innovators Need Seekers Market Readers Technology Drivers Engage customers directly to generate new ideas. Develop new products and services based on superior end-user understanding. Seek out both articulated and unarticulated needs. First to market. Eg. Apple, Procter & Gamble Closely monitor their markets, customers, and competitors, focusing largely on creating value through incremental innovations to their products. A more cautious approach. Depends on being a “fast follower” E.g. Hyundai and Caterpillar Depend heavily on their internal technological capabilities to develop new products and services. Leverage R&D investments to drive both breakthrough innovation and incremental change, in hopes of meeting the known and unknown needs of their customers via new technology. E.g.Google and Bosch Need Seeker strategy offers highest potential of superior performance (Booz & Company’s annual study of R&D spending – 2012)
  42. 42. Cautionary Tale: Too much Innovation Too much innovation and over diversification without taking cognizance of market structure changes.
  43. 43. Misguided Innovation Ideas Innovation = Ideas + motivation “Innovation and ongoing operations are always and inevitably in conflict. But ongoing operations pays for innovation.” Innovation = ideas + process Innovation = ideas + leader Innovation = ideas + leader + team + plan + structure Source: Govindarajan & Trimble 2010
  44. 44. You don’t shuffle your way from one S-curve to another. You have to jump. Gary Hamel
  45. 45. Degree of Strategic Fit Happens across 3 time horizons Horizon 3 Dominant force Zone of greatest uncertainty Emerging change Horizon 2 Horizon 1 Weak signal Time (years) Source: Baghai et al 1999
  46. 46. Each has a different point of focus Horizon 3 Create viable options Value Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Horizon 1 Extend and defend the core Time (years) Source: Baghai et al 1999
  47. 47. It depends on the types of projects
  48. 48. Different skills & Different Measurement Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 The current way of doing business is dominating Exploring ways to develop but mostly built from the core Exploring completely new ways of doing things Annual Operating Plan Business Building Strategies Place to Explore & Experiment Specific Campaigns & Plans Emerging Concepts & Models Aspiration & Future Promise Incremental Innovation Disruptive, more Collaborative Radical Innovation Pure Market Research Needs related Social Trending & Narratives Dominant System New Related Need to explore Game changing nature in Industry Current Business Emerging Business Desirable State Viable options, plenty of unknowns Invent, Develop, Deploy Research, Demonstrate, Disrupt & Discover Envision, Explore & Embody Leveraging Existing Capabilities Emerging & Existing Capabilities Exploring Radical New Capabilities Metrics: Existing, Harder, Based on Profitable growth Metrics: Ring-fence areas of possible disruption Metrics: more on exploring, built on emerging themes Source: Hobcraft 2012
  49. 49. Hype Curve Matches 3 Horizons Years to mainstream adoption: Less than 2 years Peak of Inflated Expectations 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years More than 10 years Visibility Obsolete before plateau Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Time Horizon 3 Horizon 2 Horizon 1 Source: Fenn & Raskino 2008
  50. 50. Effort & Involvement H3 Teams H2 Teams H1Teams Immature Technology Stage Technology Peak of inflated Trigger Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Market Ready Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity
  51. 51. Maturity Models
  52. 52. Individual organisms don’t evolve. Only the species evolves. Clayton Christensen
  53. 53. Discussion 25 October 2013
  54. 54. http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/12/ff-robots-will-take-our-jobs/ http://www.kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends http://www.fastcompany.com/1738545/ucsfs-robotic-pharmacy-frees-time-pharmacists http://www.innovationexcellence.com/blog/2012/08/03/navigating-the-three-horizonframework/

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  • TimLudwig1

    Feb. 24, 2014
  • CassandraPotgieter

    Sep. 1, 2017

This is a talk I did a few weeks back to a GIBBS MBA class. It covers a nice wide range on digital disruption and how to try and innovate in a disruptive world. It does acknowledge sources in the slides but I would specifically like to acknowledge: - Mary Meeker - KPCB (multiple presentations) - Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2012 (Race against the machine) - Govindarajan & Trimble 2010 (The other side of Innovation) - Hobcraft 2012 (navigating-the-three-horizon-framework)

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