Becoming Your Own Futurist

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This presentation by Paul Schumann provides an introduction of his way of looking at the future and developing foresight.

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Becoming Your Own Futurist

  1. 1. Becoming Your Own Futurist<br />Paul Schumann<br />Glocal Vantage Inc.<br />
  2. 2. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />2<br />Topics<br />The Future<br />Types of Futures<br />Insight Into the Future<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Insight & Creativity<br />
  3. 3. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />3<br />Topics<br />The Future<br />Types of Futures<br />Insight Into the Future<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Insight & Creativity<br />
  4. 4. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />4<br />Types of Futuring<br />What are possible futures?<br />Can we find a path to get to those futures?<br />What is the trend?<br />What may affect the trend?<br />What are the potential futures?<br />Future 2<br />Normative<br />Today<br />Future 1<br />Projective<br />
  5. 5. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />5<br />Topics<br />The Future<br />Types of Futures<br />Insight Into the Future<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Insight & Creativity<br />
  6. 6. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />6<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />
  7. 7. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />7<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />
  8. 8. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />8<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />
  9. 9. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />9<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />
  10. 10. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />10<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />
  11. 11. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />11<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br /><ul><li>First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)
  12. 12. Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)
  13. 13. Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)</li></li></ul><li>Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />12<br />The Four Futures<br />Technology Life Cycle<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br /><ul><li>Nonproductive (25 years)
  14. 14. Counter Productive (25 years)
  15. 15. Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)</li></li></ul><li>Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />13<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />
  16. 16. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />14<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />
  17. 17. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />15<br />EPIC 2015<br />EPIC by Robin Sloan & Matt Thompson, http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/epic (2005)<br />
  18. 18. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />16<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />
  19. 19. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />17<br />The Four Futures<br />Simple<br />Cyclical<br />Chaotic<br />Complex<br />Earthquakes<br />
  20. 20. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />18<br />Topics<br />The Future<br />Types of Futures<br />Insight Into the Future<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Insight & Creativity<br />
  21. 21. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />19<br />Four Causes of Reality<br />First Cause: Material<br />Second Cause: Formal<br />Third Cause: Efficient<br />Fourth Cause: Final (Purpose)<br />
  22. 22. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />20<br />Driving Forces<br />Demographic<br />Sociopolitical<br />Technological<br />Economic<br />
  23. 23. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />21<br />Demographic<br />Population Growth<br />Age Distribution<br />Multiculturalism<br />
  24. 24. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />22<br />Population Growth<br />
  25. 25. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />23<br />Age Distribution<br />Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Education<br />in America 2000 - 2020<br />
  26. 26. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />24<br />Sociopolitical<br />Openness<br />Smart Mobs<br />Innovation Commons<br />Gender Equity<br />Decentralization<br />Pluralism<br />Paradoxical<br />Non-Career Lives<br />
  27. 27. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />25<br />Technological<br />Infocom Technologies<br />Internet<br />Personal Devices<br />Wireless Digital<br />Location Sensors<br />Embedded Infocom Devices<br />New Software Applications<br />Genomics<br />Nanomaterials<br />Nanomachines<br />
  28. 28. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />26<br />Internet Users<br />
  29. 29. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />27<br />Economic<br />Growth<br />Innovation<br />Service<br />Virtual Integration<br />Glocality<br />Games<br />
  30. 30. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />28<br />Nature of Work<br />Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Education<br />in America 2000 - 2020<br />
  31. 31. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />29<br />Economic Maturation of Technology<br />Nonproductive (25 years)<br />Counter Productive (25 years)<br />Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)<br />
  32. 32. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />30<br />Developing Foresight<br />Planning<br />Implementation<br />Decision/Question<br />Qualitative<br />Quantitative<br />Time<br />Probability<br />Output<br />Techniques<br />Projective<br />Normative<br />Assumptions<br />Data<br />Insight<br />Judgement<br />Inputs<br />
  33. 33. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />31<br />Techniques to Improve Foresight<br />Surveillance<br />Trend Analysis<br />Expert Opinion<br />Integrative<br />
  34. 34. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />32<br />Techniques to Improve Foresight<br />Surveillance<br />Trend Analysis<br />Expert Opinion<br />Integrative<br />Scanning<br />Monitoring<br />Tracking<br />
  35. 35. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />33<br />Surveillance<br />Moving away<br />Moving <br />tangentially<br />Moving towards<br />Scanning<br />Monitoring<br />Tracking<br />Not moving, <br />getting smaller<br />Not moving, getting larger<br />
  36. 36. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />34<br />Techniques to Improve Foresight<br />Surveillance<br />Trend Analysis<br />Expert Opinion<br />Integrative<br />Analogy<br />Precursor developments<br />Trend extrapolation<br />Limit curve<br />Substitution analysis<br />Multiple substitution analysis<br />
  37. 37. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />35<br />Techniques to Improve Foresight<br />Surveillance<br />Trend Analysis<br />Expert Opinion<br />Integrative<br />Interviews<br />Surveys<br />Groups<br />
  38. 38. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />36<br />Techniques to Improve Foresight<br />Scenarios<br />SWOT<br />Opportunity/Threat Analysis<br />Cross Impact Analysis<br />Innovation Map<br />Mathematical models<br />Road Map<br />Four Laws<br />Future Frequencies<br />Surveillance<br />Trend Analysis<br />Expert Opinion<br />Integrative<br />
  39. 39. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />37<br />Topics<br />The Future<br />Types of Futures<br />Insight Into the Future<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Insight & Creativity<br />
  40. 40. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />38<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Be Aware<br />Temperament<br />Blind Spots<br />Values & Information<br />The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible<br />
  41. 41. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />39<br />
  42. 42. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />40<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Be Aware<br />Temperament<br />Blind Spots<br />Values & Information<br />The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible<br />
  43. 43. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />41<br />Temperament<br />NT<br />“Rationalists”<br />SJ<br />“Guardian”<br />NF<br />“Idealists”<br />SP<br />“Artisans”<br />
  44. 44. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />42<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Be Aware<br />Temperament<br />Blind Spots<br />Values & Information<br />The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible<br />
  45. 45. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />43<br />Blind Spots<br />Unknown<br />Others<br />Known<br />Known<br />Unknown<br />Self<br />
  46. 46. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />44<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Be Aware<br />Temperament<br />Blind Spots<br />Values & Information<br />The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible<br />
  47. 47. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />45<br />Values and Information<br />Different<br />Values<br />Same<br />Different<br />Same<br />Information<br />
  48. 48. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />46<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Be Aware<br />Temperament<br />Blind Spots<br />Values & Information<br />The Most Important Driving Forces Are Invisible<br />
  49. 49. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />47<br />Topics<br />The Future<br />Types of Futures<br />Insight Into the Future<br />Knowing Yourself<br />Insight & Creativity<br />
  50. 50. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />48<br />Insight and Creativity<br />Creativity<br />Wisdom<br />Knowledge<br />Creativity<br />Data<br />Creativity<br />Noise<br />Information<br />
  51. 51. Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />49<br />“There is absolutely no inevitability as long as there is a willingness to contemplate what is happening.”<br />Marshall McLuhan<br />
  52. 52. Paul Schumann<br />PO Box 161475<br />Austin, TX 78716<br />512.632.6586<br />paul.schumann@glocalvantage.com<br />http://incollaboration.ning.com<br />http://centexwfs.ning.com<br />Glocal Vantage, Inc.<br />50<br />

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