Carbon Footprint of Nations 090622
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Carbon Footprint of Nations 090622

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Presentation given at the 2009 ISIE conference in Lisbon.

Presentation given at the 2009 ISIE conference in Lisbon.

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    Carbon Footprint of Nations 090622 Carbon Footprint of Nations 090622 Presentation Transcript

    • 1 The Carbon Footprint of Nations A global multi-regional analysis Edgar G. Hertwich and Glen P. Peters Industrial Ecology Programme Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim, Norway ISIE Conference Lisbon, 22 June 2009 Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 2 Overview 1. Objective, Motivation 2. Multiregional Input-Output Model and Data • Carbon footprints of nations • Cross-sectional analysis: Wealth and CO2 • Conclusions and outlook http://carbonfootprintofnations.com http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es803496a Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 3 Objective • Better understand the composition of carbon footprints of different countries – What are the most important consumption categories? – How important is public consumption compared to private (household) consumption and investment? • Investigate global patterns of carbon footprint – cross-national analysis – underlying driving factors Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 4 First global assessment • GTAP* database – 87 world regions – 57 sectors – For the year 2001 – GHG emissions only • Various data and methodological issues *Global Trade Analysis Project Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 5 Full MRIO Model (1) Mass balance as for total trade Step 1: Split exports between final demand and industry Step 2: Split exports to industry in direct proportions Peters, Ecol.Econ. 2007 Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 6 Full MRIO Model (2) • Full MRIO mass balance Interindustry demand Export to final demand Domestic demand Export to industry Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 7 Full MRIO Model (3) Imports to final demand  x1   A11 A12 A13 L A1m   x1   y11 + Σ j≠1 y1j         y +Σ y   x2   A21 A22 A23 L A2m   x2   22 j≠ 2 2j   x3  =  A31 A32 A33 L A3m   x3  +  y33 + Σ j≠3 y3j          M  M M M O M  M  M   x  A L Amm  x   y +Σ y   m   m1 Am2 Am3   m   mm   j≠ m mj  Import IO coefficients Domestic IO coefficients Aij = sij Aj import ˆ Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 8 CO2 [Gt CO2] Non-CO2-GHG [Gt CO2e] Investment Investment Government Government Households Households 0 5 10 15 20 0 2 4 6 8 GHG total [Gt CO2e] Construction Shelter Investment Food Clothing Government Manufactured products Households Mobility Service Trade 0 5 10 15 20 25 http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es803496a Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 9 Sub-saharan Africa Middle East/North Africa Construction South America Shelter Food Clothing South Asia Manufactured products Mobility Europe Service Trade East Asia OECD NW 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 10 1E+2 GHG NonCO2 CO2 Power (NonCO2) Footprint [t/capita/y] 1E+1 Power (CO2) Power (GHG) 1E+0 1E-1 1E-1 1E+0 1E+1 1E+2 Consumption [1000 $/capita/y] Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 11 Construction Shelter Food 1 1 1 10 10 10 ton CO2e per capita 0 0 0 10 10 10 -1 -1 -1 10 10 10 -2 -2 -2 10 10 10 2 4 2 4 2 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 Clothing Manufactured products Mobility 1 1 1 10 10 10 ton CO2e per capita 0 0 0 10 10 10 -1 -1 -1 10 10 10 -2 -2 -2 10 10 10 2 4 2 4 2 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 Service Trade 1 1 10 10 ton CO2e per capita OECD NW 0 0 East Asia 10 10 Europe South Asia -1 -1 10 10 South America Middle East/North Africa -2 -2 Sub-saharan Africa 10 10 2 4 2 4 10 10 10 10 Expenditure ($ per capita) Expenditure ($ per capita) Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 12 Importance of categories as a function of wealth 2 10 1 GHG footprint 10 elasticity Construction 0.74 Shelter 0.65 ton CO2e per capita 0 10 Food 0.29 Clothing 0.79 Manufactures 0.88 Mobility 0.83 -1 10 Construction Service 0.55 Shelter Trade 0.88 Food Clothing -2 10 Manufactured products Mobility Service Trade -3 10 2 3 4 5 10 10 10 10 Expenditure ($ per capita) Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 13 What really matters … 16 14 12 Construction Shelter ton CO2e per capita 10 Food Clothing 8 Manufactured products Mobility Service 6 Trade 4 2 0 2 3 4 5 10 10 10 10 Expenditure ($ per capita) Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 14 Numerical regression results GHG Monetary footprint Global Footprint Footprint elasticity elasticity Average 1$/d $100’000/y Construction 0.99 0.74 10 % 5% 9% Shelter 0.97 0.65 19 % 13 % 14 % Food 0.64 0.29 20 % 44 % 6% Clothing 0.91 0.79 3% 2% 3% Manufactures 1.09 0.88 10 % 5% 18 % Mobility 1.07 0.83 17 % 10 % 29 % Service 1.16 0.55 16 % 19 % 11 % Trade 1.14 0.88 6% 2% 9% Total [tCO2/person- year] 5.5 1.5 53 Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 15 International Comparison Change in Income Income Expenditure Expenditure energy with Country Year elasticity of elasticity of elasticity of elasticity of household energy CO2 energy CO2 size Australia 1993-94 0.59 0.55 0.74 0.70 -0.16 Australia 1998-99 0.78 -0.02 Brazil 1995 1.00 -0.07 Denmark 1995 0.51 0.51 0.90 0.90 -0.20 Denmark 1995 0.86 -0.22 India 1993-94 0.86 -0.01 Japan 1999 0.64 0.06 Netherlands 1990 0.63 0.83 -0.33 New Zealand 1980 0.40 Norway 1973 0.72 -0.27 USA 1960-81 0.85 USA 1972-73 0.78 -0.33 Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 16 Cross-country and within country variation • Same elasticity for energy/CO2 – remarkable invariance of wealth-energy connection across different circumstances and many orders of magnitude • Both approaches have the weakness of measuring consumption in monetary terms – different CO2 intensity of different qualities of same product type not considered Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 17 Further work • Role of technology versus changes in quality and structure with increased wealth • Density, climate and other explanatory variables • Specific comparisons – decoupling of “footprints” and wealth; other indicators of welfare • New database – EXIOPOL: more environmental detail Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
    • 18 Questions? edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no www.carbonfootprintofnations.com Edgar Hertwich Industrial Ecology Programme Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim, Norway Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com