Stories to Watch 2013

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What stories will impact people and the planet in 2013?

Dr. Andrew Steer, President & CEO, presents his views for where the world is headed in international development, climate change, energy, sustainable business, natural resources, and more.

What will be the big news stories? Who will be the change makers? And, why does it all matter?

Celebrating its 10th anniversary, STORIES TO WATCH 2013 takes place on 15 January 2013 and welcomes media representatives, policymakers, business leaders, and consultants who want to know what trends will shape the world in the coming year.

Find out more at http://www.wri.org/event/2013/01/stories-watch-2013

Published in: Education

Stories to Watch 2013

  1. FEATURINGAndrew SteerPresident and CEO, WRI
  2. (Photo: jdlasica/Flickr)
  3. It’s been a great two decades . . .
  4. 2 billion ↑58%gained access to girls enrolled in primaryimproved drinking water education in least developed countries ↓47% maternal deaths ↑100% ↓50% real per capita income people living on less in developing countries than $1.25 per day(United Nations, World Bank, 2012)
  5. . . . Or has it?
  6. 3.3 million deaths per year from air pollution 13 million hectares of forest lost per year ↑2.9x ↑50% cement production CO2 emissions(WHO, The Lancet, EU, US DOE, FAO)
  7. GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS ON THE RISE 40 35 BILLION 35 TONS (2012) Carbon dioxide emissions (billion tons) Carbon dioxide emissions (billion tons) 30 25 20 15 6 BILLION 10 TONS (1950) 5 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000(US DOE, 2010; EU, 2012)
  8. SHIFT TO AN URBANIZED WORLD 70% (2050) 50% (2000) 30% (1950) 14% (1900)3% (1800) (UN DESA, 2012)
  9. EXPLOSION OF THEGLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS 1 billion in 1990 2 billion in 2010 5 billion by 2030 (Photo: ben124/Flickr)
  10. ARE WE RUNNING OUT?Price trends of major commodity bundles (real 2005 dollars) 250 Food Energy Timber 200 Fertilizers Metals and Minerals Price in real 2005 dollars 150 100 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010(WRI chart using World Bank data, 2012)
  11. 1 ENERGY MIX1 WHAT ENERGY MIX? 1.3 billion people without access to electricity (Photo: MC-Leprosy/Flickr)
  12. COAL55+ U.S. coal plants shut down in 2012; 395 remain (Photo: Martini DK/Flickr)
  13. COAL | GLOBAL CONSUMPTION INCREASING 8 7Million metric tons Million metric tons 6 5 4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 (EIA, 2012)
  14. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY(WRI, 2012)
  15. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY INDIA(WRI, 2012)
  16. COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY CHINA INDIA(WRI, 2012)
  17. COAL | U.S. COAL EXPORTS ARE RISING (2002 = 1.0) 3.5 3.0 2.5Relative to 2002 2.0 1.5 EXPORTS 1.0 CONSUMPTION 0.5 0.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (EIA, 2012)
  18. WHAT TO WATCH1. How many of the proposed coal power plants will be built?2. Will U.S. coal exports continue to grow? (Photo: LHOON/Flickr)
  19. NATURAL GAS | U.S. PRODUCTION INCREASING 30 25 20 SHALE GAS Trillion cubic feet 15 10 OTHER 5 NATURAL GAS 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA)
  20. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA, 2009-2012)
  21. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009 2010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA, 2009-2012)
  22. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009 2010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 2011 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA, 2009-2012)
  23. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARDPRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES 10 2009 2010Average Henry Hub spot price ($) 8 2011 6 2012 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(EIA, 2009-2012)
  24. NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES N.B. Estimates for Russia and the Middle East are not included(EIA, 2011)
  25. WHAT TO WATCH1. Will U.S. shale gas boom continue or will it level off?2. What will happen with the development of shale gas in China? What about India, the UK, South Africa, and other countries? (Photo: Giorgio Giorgetti/Flickr)
  26. RENEWABLES | WHERE NEXT FOR INVESTMENT? 80 70 $268.7BN 60 (2012) Billions of dollars 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 20072007 20082008 2009 2009 2010 2010 20112011 2012 2012 Quarterly N.B. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D.(Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2013)
  27. RENEWABLES | COUNTRIES WITH RENEWABLEENERGY TARGETS With targets Without targets Map is illustrative; see REN21 for full list of countries(REN21, 2012)
  28. WHAT TO WATCH1. Will countries make progress on their commitments? Will new countries announce new energy targets this year?2. How will this impact investments? (Photo: Russian Reporter)
  29. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL PROGRESS” IN CHINA2 TOWARD “ECOLOGICAL PROGRESS” IN CHINA? (Photo: Andreas/Flickr)
  30. CHINA DRIVES GLOBAL CONSUMPTIONShare of the world total 53% 47% 48% 45% 28% Iron Ore Cement Steel10% Coal CO2 GDP
  31. CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATIONIS MASSIVELY COSTLY 10Cost of environmental degradation as 9.2% OF GDP 8 % of GDP equivalent 6 4 2 0(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
  32. BEIJING AIR POLLUTION755 air quality index in Beijing
  33. CHINA LEADS ON RENEWABLE ENERGYRenewable energy installed capacity 140 120 100 Gigawatts 80 60 40 20 0 China China United Germany Spain U.S. Germany Spain ItalyItaly Japan Japan India India France France Brazil Brazil States(Pew, 2012)
  34. CHINA’S GDP GROWTH: WHERE NEXT? 16 14 12 2013 2017 (8.8%) (8.5%)GDP growth (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2015(IMF, 2012)
  35. 18TH NATIONAL CONGRESSOF THE COMMUNIST PARTYOF CHINA, NOVEMBER 2012“We must fully implement theoverall plan for promotingeconomic, political, cultural,social and ecological progress.”- PRESIDENT HU (Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr)
  36. WHAT TO WATCH1. How much progress will China make toward its energy targets?2. Will China make progress on its carbon trading pilots?3. Will China develop its massive shale gas potential, which could in part displace its dependence on coal? (Photo: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr)
  37. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL 3 AFRICA’S PROGRESS” LIONS IN CHINA3 HOW WILL AFRICA’S LIONS GROW? (Photo: Alvise Forcellini/Flickr)
  38. BOOMING ECONOMIESNational GDP growth, 2007-2012 Ethiopia Sierra Leone 8.9% 10.2% Ghana Rwanda 8.2% 7.5% Equatorial Guinea 8.0% 7.5%+ 5-7.4% 2.5-4.9% 0-2.4% Insufficient data Angola 9.2%(IMF, 2012)
  39. AFRICAN CITIES GROWING QUICKLY36% 67% 65% urban urban currently live in slums population population in 2010 in 2050AFRICAN MIDDLE CLASS GROWING37% 48%increase in middle currently live inclass from 2000-10 absolute poverty(African Development Bank, Deloitte)
  40. A MIXED BAGChange in Freedom House rankings, 2002-2012 Improved No change Worsened Insufficient data(Freedom House, 2012)
  41. 50% foreign direct investment going to extractive industries $16bn 2011 Chinese investments in Africa (Photo: ENOUGH Project/Flickr)
  42. 400m people living in the dry lands (Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)
  43. THE GREAT GREEN WALL (NASA; Pan-African Agency of the Great Green Wall)
  44. DODD-FRANK LEGISLATION PASSED IN 2010SEC Rules (Photo: Securities and Exchange Commission/Flickr)
  45. WHAT TO WATCH1. Will we see more transparency from extractive industries?2. How will Africa respond to drought and food security issues? Will we see an expansion of efforts at regreening? (Photo: TREEAID/Flickr)
  46. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL 3 AFRICA’S 4 THE WORLD’S PROGRESS” LIONS FORESTS IN CHINA4 ARE WE TURNING THE CORNER ON FORESTS? Forests provide $720 billion to global economies (Photo: CIFOR/Flickr)
  47. 13m hectares of forest lost per year
  48. BRAZIL AND INDONESIA: VITAL PLAYERS Brazil Indonesia 35% 23% SHARE OF TROPICAL DEFORESTATION, 1990-2010 2.8 2.6 Other 12 42% .5(FAO)
  49. WHAT TO WATCH1. Will President Yudhoyono extend the moratorium? (Photo: CIFOR/Flickr)
  50. DEFORESTATION IN BRAZIL IS ON THE DECLINE 30 25 Thousands of square kilometers 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(National Institute for Space Research, Brazil, 2012)
  51. WHAT TO WATCH1. How will Brazil’s new legislation, signed by President Rousseff impact the dynamics? (Photo: Neil Palmer/CIAT)
  52. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL 3 AFRICA’S 4 THE WORLD’S 5 GREEN PROGRESS” LIONS FORESTS INVESTMENT IN CHINA5 WILL GREEN INVESTMENT SURVIVE THE SQUEEZE? (Photo: Francisco Diez/Flickr)
  53. UNCERTAIN TIMES – RISK AVERSIONChange in global GDP 5 4 3 Real global GDP growth (%) Real global GDP growth (%) 2 1 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 -1 -2 -3(World Bank, 2012)
  54. GLOBAL ANNUAL CLIMATE FINANCE $1 trillion $364 billion 2010-11 WHAT IS NEEDED(CPI, 2012; Bloomberg, 2012)
  55. FINANCIAL RULES | UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCESBasel IIIFull compliance by 2019 (Photo: BIS)
  56. PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE | DE-RISKING MECHANISMSGreen Climate FundWhat role will it play? (Photo: theverb.org/Flickr)
  57. MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS |SEEDING NEW DEVELOPMENT sustainable$175bn transport commitment (Photo: Michael Oko)
  58. CHANGING MINDSETS(UPS, Unilever, Johnson & Johnson)
  59. NEW FINANCING STRUCTURES, NEW PLAYERS (Photo: David Blaikie/Flickr)
  60. WHAT TO WATCH1. Will new funding mechanisms emerge to de-risk the markets?2. Will companies recalibrate risk and adopt longer-term perspectives?3. Will new financing structures and new players emerge? (Photo: Windwärts Energie GmbH)
  61. 1 ENERGY MIX 2 “ECOLOGICAL 3 AFRICA’S 4 THE WORLD’S 5 GREEN 6 OBAMA AND PROGRESS” LIONS FORESTS INVESTMENT CLIMATE IN CHINA CHANGE6 WILL OBAMA LEAD ON CLIMATE CHANGE? “The issue of climate change is one that we ignore at our own peril.” - Senator Barack Obama, 2006 (Photo: Barack Obama/Flickr)
  62. (Bloomberg Businessweek, 2012)
  63. EXTREME WEATHER 2012 2012 to be the hottest year on record for the contiguous United States 67% of global losses occurred in the U.S. $60+ billion in damage from Hurricane Sandy 1% of GDP lost from drought (Photo: NASA Goddard/Flickr)
  64. AMERICANS’ EVOLVING BELIEFS ON CLIMATE CHANGE67% 68%believe there is solid of likely voters say globalevidence of the Earth’s warming is a seriouswarming1 problem274%believe global warming isaffecting weather in the 1 Pew, Oct 2012 2United States3 Rasmussen, Nov 2012 3 Yale-George Mason University, Oct 2012
  65. WHAT TO WATCH1. Will we see more political leadership on climate?2. Who will President Obama appoint to his cabinet?3. Will the Obama administration be a go-getter on climate change? (Photo: Randy Le’Moine Photography/Flickr)
  66. (Photo: National Park Service)
  67. 1 WHAT ENERGY MIX?2 TOWARD “ECOLOGICAL PROGRESS” IN CHINA?3 HOW WILL AFRICA’S LIONS GROW?4 ARE WE TURNING THE CORNER ON FORESTS?5 WILL GREEN INVESTMENT SURVIVE THE SQUEEZE?6 WILL OBAMA LEAD ON CLIMATE CHANGE?

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